股票技術分析大師談技術分析

原載於“談股論金”群組 http://groups.wenxuecity.com/groupview.php?gid=60

談到股票技術分析，不能不談到歸功於日本本間宗九的陰陽蠟燭圖；談到陰陽蠟燭圖，不能不談到Steve Nison 的《Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques》。這本經典著作闡述了陰陽蠟燭圖分析的各方麵。然而全書的精華卻是人們往往跳過不讀的導言。

摘錄其中一節：

The importance of technical analysis is five-fold. First, while fundamental analysis may provide a gauge of the situations, price/earnings ratios, economic statistics, and so forth, there is no psychological component involved in such analysis. Yet the markets are influenced at times, to a major extent, by emotionalism. An ounce of emotion can be worth a pound of facts. As John Keynes stated, "there is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.” Technical analysis provides the only mechanism to measure the "irrational" (emotional) component present in all markets. Here is an entertaining story about strongly psychology can affect a market. It is from the book The New Gatsbys.  It takes place at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybeans were sharply higher. There was a drought in the Illinois Soybean Belt. And unless it ended soon, there would be a severe shortage of beans. . . . Suddenly a few drops of water slid down a window. "Look," someone shouted, "rain!"  More than 500 pairs of eyes [the traders-editor's note] shifted to the big windows. . . . Then came a steady trickle which turned into a steady downpour. It was raining in downtown Chicago.

Sell. Buy. Buy. Sell. The shouts cascaded from the traders' lips with a roar that matched the thunder outside. And the price of soybeans began to slowly move down. Then the price of soybeans broke like some tropic fever.

It was pouring in Chicago all right, but no one grows soybeans in Chicago. In the heart of the Soybean Belt, some 300 miles south of Chicago the sky was blue, sunny and very dry. But even if it wasn't raining on the soybean fields it was in the heads of the traders, and that is all that counts [emphasis added]. To the market nothing matters unless the market reacts to it. The game is played with the mind and the emotions.

In order to drive home the point about the importance of mass psychology, think about what happens when you exchange a piece of paper called "money" for some item like food or clothing? Why is that paper, with no intrinsic value, exchanged for something tangible? It is because of a shared psychology. Everyone believes it will be accepted, so it is. Once this shared psychology evaporates, when people stop believing in money, it becomes worthless.

全書中Steve Nison反複強調市場心理情緒以及主觀經驗的重要性，這種建立在感悟上的東方模糊思維和建立在參數上的西方明析推斷相映成趣。

有趣的是， Steve將群體心理學寫成mass psychology， 而不是crowd psychology.  Mass 是一個遠為中性的詞，其為人之謹慎中和可見一斑。

取法乎上，僅得其中。別人從他的書中斷章取義，編成速成教材，隻壞了許多發財夢。