CEO的博克：金融危機

公司的內部網路上有一個小小的窗口，上麵寫著“CEO的博克”，老總過幾天總會貼一篇短文，迎合時事，談點自己的看法，兼引發大家的討論。   前段時間，中國舉辦奧運，老總的博克從奧運談到中國再談到健身，讓我看了覺得滿好玩的，拉近了他與我們大家的距離。最近，金融危機，老總的博克題目就是“The Financial Crisis ”。他寫道： The last few weeks have seen incredible turmoil and changes in the financial markets, financial institutions and the outlook for the global economy. People are saying this is the biggest and most significant upheaval since the crash of 1929. In order to try to keep you informed I have sent a couple of emails to all of you explaining how I see things and how we are trying to position the company in these turbulent times. The idea, of course, is to protect the company’s future, ensure we come out of this situation stronger and execute the best financial performance we can during this period. But you have probably heard enough from me on these topics, and I will keep writing to you to keep you informed. Many of you have taken the opportunity to write to me directly and give your opinions, which I greatly appreciate. So in the Blog this week, I thought I would ask for your opinions and give you a chance to express your views about the financial crisis now that we are in the fourth week of this dramatic and fundamenetal change. First, I would like to know how do you see the crisis playing out? Short term? Long term? What impact do you see it having on the company? Our various businesses? What one or two actions would you most like to see taken? Please be thoughtful about this. 總有人喜歡評論有人喜歡潛水，一兩天下來，三十幾個評論，我引不下來，太長了。貼幾個有代表性的在這裏，看看美國這次的金融危機在矽穀高科技公司人眼中是什麽樣子的：   1．  Financial Crisis fact and fiction: Fiction: the financial crisis was caused by greedy capitolists extorting innocent investors. Fact: the financial crisis was caused by the democrats in the US Congress meddling with the housing market via the "semi-private" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fact: The republicans and George Bush made numerous attempts to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but were thwarted by rhetoric that said any attempt at reform was an attack on the "needy and poor" who are seeking home ownership. Fact: the main stream media is an accomplice to the democrat party in this crisis where they did not report the gross negligence or mismanagement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fact: Enron executed a fraud which cost the American public 7 billion dollars and those executives were sentenced to prison time. Fact: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executed fraud which has cost the American public 700 billion dollars and there has not been a single Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac executive called in to a "congressional hearing." Fact: Former Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines (who extorted >100 million dollars from Fannie Mae) is a top advisor to the Obama campaign. Former Fannie Mae CEO Jim Johnson who also took millions of taxpayer dollars from Fannie Mae is the Obama advisor that selected Joe Biden to be the VP. Fact: Senator Obama is the Senator/ Congressman with the third highest receipts of "special intrest" money from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with over $100,000 in contributions received. Other top recipients include Chris Dodd (D-CT), John Kerry (D-MA), and Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Fact: the democrats know that a bad American economy equals a strong democrat vote which is precisely why they created this crisis. Fact: Recovery from this crisis will require strong conservative leadership.   2．Wow, can we please not use the CEO's blog as a political drum? Moving on to the questions at hand... I think in the short term that we'll see continued weakness in the consumer markets, in part because people are still circling the wagons and frantically putting money away for the rainy days they think are ahead. That's going to impact our bottom line the same way it always does: less consumer spending, less chips needed, less tools needed. I think this is going to continue through 2009. We may see a little bit of pickup in the second half of calendar 2009, but it's going to depend on the markets, government and media all executing well to get consumer confidence back where it needs to be and keep it there. This levelling/downturn of the markets is going to also keep the US solar market from really taking off after the alternative energy tax breaks that got passed in the so-called "bailout bill." I don't know enough about the European markets to comment there, but I think any real increases in solar installations here in the US will be delayed until the economic recovery really gets underway here. I think the overall recovery will be a sort of accelerating effect, starting out slow as people begin to loosen their purse strings and increasing once they see that the sky hasn't fallen and it's safe to spend money on cell phones and iPods again. Really big-ticket items aren't going to get bought until folks don't have to worry about losing their jobs anymore. As far as we goes, I think we're executing as well as we can given the circumstances we find ourselves in. I know some people are worried about layoffs, but I see that as less and less of an option as the workforce continues to contract and concentrate experience. The more we rely on people that have been here 10, 12, 15 years, the more of an impact the company feels when they leave whether it be voluntary or not. I think the current method of moving people around to different PBGs to cross-train and keep people in areas that need the manpower is a pretty good way of preserving that experience and expertise for the inevitable ramp to come. It'll be a lot easier to be successful when we still have our trained, effective people than if we're trying to train new hires and get them up to speed.   3． The "you can have what you want when you want it" attitude has played an important part in creating this mess. As you know, the financial crisis was precipitated by the meltdown of the "sub-prime" mortgage market. Millions of Americans took out mortgages they couldn't afford to buy houses that in some cases they really didn't need. But it's not just the sub-prime mess. The personal debt of Americans is at record levels. A well-known credit-card commercial has a man shopping for a new television set and using his cell phone to check his credit limit. Not his checking or savings account balance, but his limit! And in case you don't get the message, the music in the background blares, "I want it all and I want it now!" It's not only consumer goods. Everything from the war in Iraq to Katrina and most recently, hurricane IKE recovery is funded by borrowing. Both political parties are quick to promise specific "goodies," like new entitlements or tax cuts or new roads, but they never say how they are going to pay for them. The answer of course is that they haven't got a clue, other than to borrow from foreigners and then stick our children and grandchildren with the bill for some future day. I hope this is all just a warning shot across our bow to wake us up, instead of heading for a collapse. In either case, one thing is clear: Business-as-usual can't continue the same downward course. Let's all recognize we can't have it all-whether at the shopping mall or from government. So first, we put our own houses in order. Next, we demand that our political leaders stop behaving like Santa Claus, or shop-a-holics in a mall. In fact, I'm tempted to say we ought to be voting for the candidates who promise us the least goodies and tell us the hard truth: that is, that we all have to start acting responsibly.   4． This "crisis" didn't happen overnight, and it won't go away overnight either. But my parents were depression-era kids, and this is NOTHING like the times they described. Yes, it's nerve-wracking to see the markets fluctuate. But it's thanks to the internet that, for the first time in history, we have real-time news, and are able to manage our own stock portfolios. That was bound to bring about dramatic change...for better or worse, and carries with it additional financial responsibility. I think we all need to do a better job of understanding global markets, and teaching our children how to manage money and credit at an early age. There is no "free lunch". As always, making innovative technology affordable to more people will probably have the greatest positive, long-term impact. In the '30s it was automobiles and farm machinery----in the next few years I'm hoping it will be be solar power!   5．I keep hearing the words “fundamental change” and don’t quite understand what fundamentals have to change. We all have to work to earn an income to be able to pay bills and hopefully save for college funds and retirement funds and live the lifestyles of our own definition. I believe the difficulty in our economy is still in the early stages and some have stated could continue for a few more years. My uneducated guess would be, because of our large deficit and addition of approximately $1 trillion as a result of the recovery fund, the difficulties will last for a few more years. I think we will see large corporations merge and scale down manufacturing resulting in more job losses. I don’t see how retraining helps anyone when the economy and job creation is suffering. The technologies for green energy are not large enough in the US to sustain the number of people losing their jobs and some of the newer energy technologies are still in the research phase. The impact of the decline of the economy to our company is big since our (SSG) success is proportional to the confidence of the consumer. I would like to see our company give a state of our business including what is our break even mark and how far we are to that mark and what it would take to attain that mark. I would also like our company to buy back all our stock options that are under water and award much more stock than we currently earn. Because as we all know, it is times like these the rich take a hit and those with a little can make smart decisions that will positively impact their long term goals and the goals of the Enterprise.   6． Warren Buffet has become the richest man in America by doing what nearly every investor forgot to do. He followed the advice that every broker gives investor, and anyone who has taken a business course has heard. Big Red Letters: DON'T PANIC! A lot of people have forgotten that, many of them investors in, employed by, or executives for, Applied Material, its customers, and its customers customers. Corporations and their executives are hearing that they may not be as wealthy as they once were, and resonding as if they are going to be stricken with poverty. Some few or many of us recall poverty very well, and some of those will panic just the same. I have lived poor and/or broke for decades. Survival is making decisions based on what is, not what is feared. Budgeting means you turn off your lights when no-one is in the room. Poor is you sit in the dark. Broke is eating mac&cheese three nights a week. Destitute is struggling to afford cup ramen once a day. So I offer this advice to AMAT, its customers, its customers customers, and the many people employed thereby. Big Red Letters: DON'T PANIC!   7． The expression that cash is king when times are bad comes to mind. We  have always had a strong cash position. Please recap our policy on having a strong cash position and explain if this gives us a competitive position in this time of frozen credit and thrashing stock market.   8.   Our country (and our company) is too great to act on fear and live in a state of panic. The reality of this situation is hitting everyone but I'd honestly like to stop seeing the word "crisis" used so much, especially by our leaders - it is unnecessary and perpetuates nothing good or positive. It's not a word that survivors and thrivers use and we always comes out of these times better than they were before. It should be no different this time. Jim Morgan used to say "Use the downturn to prepare for the upturn". He didn't just say it - he ensured that resources were put in place to make it happen. I'd like to see us make good use of this time to invest in the capability/skills development of our people. During busy times/upturns, it's difficult for companies to get their employees attention, focus and dedicated time to do this, but if we invest in it now when things are slower, we have a huge opportunity to further differentiate against our competitors and come out of this less than desireable situation - ahead. This is especially important for our newer businesses that don't have the long term experience and industry knowledge that many have in the semiconductor arena... If we want to excel, we have to start thinking, acting, conducting business in more innovative ways that bring more value to our customers by understanding their business more in depth and aligning our offerings to bring value they might not even be aware exists.   9.  The financial crisis is the reckoning day of an economy driven by the vast consumption of vastly depreciating goods. Sadly, the things that provide the most enjoyment in people's lives are the things that provide no cash flow and eliminate personal wealth -- i.e. vacations, movies, fine dining, new cars, big screen televisions, latest fashion clothes, sports tickets, -- even taking care of the family, etc. etc. etc.... And when the cash for these things isn't available, it's all been done on credit, as opposed to using credit to develop a money producing asset or business. I am not saying we should deny ourselves the good things in life. But it would be good to think about how to start providing the PASSIVE cash flow for the good things in life... The 5-year 0-down ARM loans that went into high gear earlier this decade was the time bomb that created this credit mess. Coincidentally enough, it happens during election season. EVERYBODY can afford ZERO down. So once the whole market is saturated with buyers and no new blood is coming in, the only direction is DOWN. -------- So How Will This Play Out In The Short Term and Long Term? ----- A market bottom could be forming... In many markets across the U.S., its becoming possible again to put down 20% on a decent house or condo and have the rent cover the mortgage and normal expenses, with a reasonable prospect in five to ten years of gradually increasing cash flow and wealth building. These fundmentals were the historical norm before the last few years. Then if we get back to those levels, housing should stabilize. Two to three years ago during the bubble, it wasn't even possible to get neutral cash flow even with 30 or 40 percent down in overheated markets across the U.S. Once prices come to a level that support a conservative long term real estate investment, this could start the foundation for wealth building again. Once the 0-money down market -- which is the market with no skin in the game --- gets cleared out, a return to normalcy and decent fundamentals will return. The zero money phenomenon drove prices unsustainably high, thus making a profitable resale value less likely to achieve, even for the people that did have the cash in the first place who bought at overheated prices. -------- How Will This Affect Our Business and Others? ------ A drying up of credit, or more expensive credit, is going to have a natural restriction on consumer spending. In the past few months, the savings rate of Americans has made a sudden spike upward to the 2% range. 2% doesn't sound like a lot, but in the past five years, the savings rate has been virtually zero. Twenty years ago, the savings rate was near 10 percent. If consumers are saving money, its definitely going to hit retail, including the big box stores that sell goods made with AMAT equipment ( TVs, computers, memory, etc... ). Even if the credit crises clears up by next year, I think the shock of it is going to stay in people's minds for at least a few years and encourage Americans to at least save a few percent of their earnings. I would hope that Americans would at least be less inclined to pay "Made in USA" prices on goods that are actually made in China. (i.e. Nordstrom, Tommy Bahama, etc..) On the other hand, gasoline prices are falling rapidly. This has the effect of adding a couple hundred dollars a month in American's pocketbooks. Could this be the reason for the sudden 2% spike in savings rate? If not, then falling energy prices might allow money to get circulated through the rest of the retail economy. -------- What I Would Like To See Happen? --- Politicians can talk about "deregulation" and "greed" all they want. But I think the real problem is very easy to explain. I had a professor that had a memorable principle with economics. Stated simply -- "if you don't have the cash, you don't need it". A widespread failure to follow such advice brought about this turmoil. Those that didn't have the cash even for a down payment caused a lot of real estate pain even for people that did have the cash. Banking practices that encourage buying from people who have no business buying will result in collapse. This is where we get into this business of "CRA"s, which were the mandates to banks to give loans to those that wouldn't normally qualify. But then the sub-prime loans became mainstream earlier this decade, and that was the precursor to the crash. Just remember the old saying -- "cash is king". What are people doing to develop assets that provide the passive income (outside of a day job) to provide for long term security and to pay for the things they want? What are people doing to educate themselves about all the various investment vehicles out there that are safer and yet more productive? I'm just as guilty as the next guy in this area. We all need to open our eyes and learn ……   我正全神貫注地讀著老總的博克和評論，副老總過來大發感慨：“我這輩子還沒見過兩個星期中我們的兩個大客戶宣布破產！”   金融危機，金融震蕩，我已感到大地的震動！“Don’t Panic!” 我想起剛剛看到的老總博克評論裏的勸告，拎著我的咖啡杯去加咖啡了。