the modest numbers in the puzzle by more extreme ones. For instance, waking up once in January 1st only for heads, and waking up every day for the 365 days in the whole year for tails.
1/3,obviously. One can see it easily by substituting
所有跟帖:
• 謝同學果然腦子轉得快。視頻裏有一個“反例”,如果是巴西和加拿大踢足球,勝率是80對20。 -露重煙微- ♀ (585 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:19:12
• I didn't watch the video, however the idea is the same -中間小謝- ♂ (388 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:35:13
• 如果每次醒都能1對4下賭注,我當然說加拿大羸,但我被叫醒一百萬次,就能改變原先硬幣投出的1/2概率嗎? -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:46:00
• No, you can not. But one must distinguish two cases: -中間小謝- ♂ (409 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:53:00
• 明白您的意思,但那是醒來的概率,不是硬幣朝上的概率,不是嗎? -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 14:14:00
• As part of the event they are no longer independent (case 2) -中間小謝- ♂ (110 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 14:19:51
• 是的,這也是一個我當初很困惑的點,讓我一度轉成了1/2和1/3派。也就是像您列的,認為問題的問法有歧義。 -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 15:05:00
• 不過後來發現還是1/2,這裏我先買個關子,看還有沒有更多人想討論的。 -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 15:08:00
• 也可以換成正麵周一給個紅球,反麵周一周二給白球,問紅球幾率。 -dhyang_wxc- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 21:23:31
• 所以您覺得是三分之一嗎? -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 22:20:00