I didn't watch the video, however the idea is the same

You are to be woken 1,000,000 time when Canada wins.

Now, you are woken up by someone...What are the chances...?

Think of it as a lottory bid, you will know what to do. 

 

所有跟帖： 

• 如果每次醒都能1對4下賭注，我當然說加拿大羸，但我被叫醒一百萬次，就能改變原先硬幣投出的1/2概率嗎？ -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:46:00

• No, you can not. But one must distinguish two cases: -中間小謝- ♂ (409 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:53:00

• 明白您的意思，但那是醒來的概率，不是硬幣朝上的概率，不是嗎？ -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 14:14:00

• As part of the event they are no longer independent (case 2) -中間小謝- ♂ (110 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 14:19:51

• 是的，這也是一個我當初很困惑的點，讓我一度轉成了1/2和1/3派。也就是像您列的，認為問題的問法有歧義。 -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 15:05:00

• 不過後來發現還是1/2，這裏我先買個關子，看還有沒有更多人想討論的。 -露重煙微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 15:08:00