有這麽回事嗎？這與他們發表的文章有矛盾。

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9822393

 

BMJ. 1998 Nov 21;317(7170):1411-22.

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths.

Liu BQ¹, Peto R, Chen ZM, Boreham J, Wu YP, Li JY, Campbell TC, Chen JS.

Author information

• ¹Department of Epidemiology, National Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Panjiayuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100021, People's Republic of China.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China.

DESIGN:

Smoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes.

SETTING:

24 urban and 74 rural areas of China.

SUBJECTS:

One million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Tobacco attributable mortality in middle or old age from neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular disease.

RESULTS:

Among male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged >/70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase.

CONCLUSIONS:

At current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age.

Comment in

• Emerging tobacco hazards in China. Double standards apply with importation of tobacco into developing countries. [BMJ. 1999]
• Emerging tobacco hazards in China. Is assumption of no association between smoking and other causes of death valid? [BMJ. 1999]
• Counting the dead in China. Measuring tobacco's impact in the developing world. [BMJ. 1998]

PMID:

9822393

PMCID:

PMC28719

所有跟帖： 

• 看到了Campbell的解釋 -吃與活- ♂ (1151 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 10:58:23

• 我就是在猜測旱煙和香煙也許在致癌作用上有相當大的不同。我上麵說的二者負相關是單指旱煙 -虎嗅薔薇- ♀ (771 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 11:50:13

• 謝謝，同意。 -吃與活- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 13:15:20

• 他把肺癌歸類到富貴病，他這段話是不是在說，吸煙本身不是導致肺癌的第一因素，而富裕生活方式才是？我這麽理解他的話對不對？ -虎嗅薔薇- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 12:53:19

• 我也是這樣理解他的解讀，但這樣的認識是不是有道理我也不知道。一個解釋可以是煙草誘癌，但鄉下人的生活方式使癌得不到發展壯大。 -吃與活- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 13:19:49

• 這個不就是坎貝爾的中心思想： -虎嗅薔薇- ♀ (410 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 13:48:00

• 坎貝爾有點倔強 ；） -吃與活- ♂ (47 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 14:03:31

• 是有點牽強。那個負相關是China Study裏成千上萬個關聯之一，說不定就是個anomaly，沒啥意義的一個factoid而已 -虎嗅薔薇- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 22:09:58