Golds climb to an inflation-adjusted record puts a spotlight on Bitcoins ability to maintain momentum, QCP says.
In brief
- Gold hit an inflation-adjusted record high of $3,683/oz, surpassing a 45-year-old record.
- Bitcoin climbs 6% to $114,286 but analysts watch gold-to-Bitcoin ratio for breakout signals.
- Prediction markets now favor gold over Bitcoin through year-end, with 63% betting on precious metal.
If Bitcoin can keep pace with gold as it soars to an inflation-adjusted record high, then it could be poised for a big breakout, analysts toldDecrypt.
The spot price for gold just exceeded an inflation-adjusted peak set more than 45 years ago. The price per ounce of gold in U.S. dollars has climbed 8% in September to ahigh of $3,683.14. Thats enough to edge it past the January 21, 1980 high of $850 per ounce. When those 1980 dollars areadjusted for inflation, they would have been worth $3,539.58 as of August 2025.
Bitcoinhas climbed more than 6% over the same period, going from $107,634 to $114,408 at the time of writing, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko. The price of BTC currently sits about 8% under a peak above $124,000 set last month.
Analysts at QCP Capital, a digital asset trading firm in Singapore, toldDecrypttheyre watching to see how gold and Bitcoin move in tandem to shape their Q4 forecast for BTC.
Were watching whether the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio approaches 0.041, a level that has historically coincided with periods where gold rallies while Bitcoin stabilizes, they said. With institutional treasury flows picking up, this zone is worth monitoring as a potential marker for shifting market dynamics.
At the time of this writing, the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio sits at 0.032. Neither asset exists in a vacuum, but generally speaking, Bitcoin would need to fall or gold would need to rise even higher to nudge the ratio towards the sweet spot.
Users on Myriad, a prediction market owned byDecryptparent company DASTAN, think theres aslim chance Bitcoin will outperform goldthis year. At the start of the day, the odds were as close as theyve ever been with 54% of predictors saying gold will beat BTC. But since the precious metal set its new all-time high, the goldbugs have grown to 63%.
Bitcoin has been sitting around $114,000 for most of New York trading hours on Thursday after having peaked at $114,696 around midday. After ahotter-than-expected consumer price index reportfrom theBureau of Labor Statisticsthis morning, BTC is now trading 0.7% higher than it was this time yesterday.
The QCP analysts added that theyre also keeping a close eye on the gold-to-SP 500 ratio, which they see as a barometer of risk-off versus risk-on sentiment across traditional assets, as well as the BTC-to-ETH ratio to gauge rotation within digital assets.
Together, these cross-asset ratios provide important context for how risk is being priced across both traditional and digital markets, they said.
