獅山巡禮
投資雜談
我遵循的投資第一性原則
1. 價值創造是核心：投資於長期創造價值的企業
第一性原則：企業的價值來源於其為客戶、行業或社會解決核心問題的能力。投資應聚焦於那些通過產品、服務或技術，持續創造真實價值的公司。
隻買第一解讀：優先選擇在行業中占據主導地位、擁有獨特競爭優勢（護城河）的公司。例如，蘋果（Apple）因其生態係統和品牌忠誠度在智能手機領域長期領先，而非第二梯隊的競爭者。
應用：
評估企業的核心競爭力（如技術專利、品牌效應、規模經濟）。
選擇那些在細分市場中排名第一或擁有無可替代優勢的公司（如 NVIDIA 在 AI 芯片領域的領先地位）。
避免跟隨市場炒作，忽視基本麵（如僅因股價波動追逐第二梯隊公司）。
2. 長期主義優於短期波動
第一性原則：財富增長來自時間的複利效應，而非短期市場情緒。企業的內在價值（盈利能力、現金流）最終決定回報。
隻買第一解讀：選擇那些長期穩健、能在經濟周期中持續增長的行業領導者。例如，亞馬遜（Amazon）通過長期投資雲計算（AWS）和物流，超越短期虧損，成為行業第一。
應用：
關注企業的長期戰略（如研發投入、客戶留存率）而非季度財報波動。
投資於具有高確定性增長的行業（如 AI、清潔能源）中的龍頭企業。
避免因短期市場恐慌或熱潮而頻繁交易。
3. 風險與回報的本質平衡
第一性原則：任何投資的回報都與承擔的風險成正比，但風險可以通過深入研究和分散化管理。真正的投資機會是那些風險被市場低估、回報潛力高的標的。
隻買第一解讀：行業第一的公司通常有更強的抗風險能力（如更穩定的現金流、更低的破產概率）。例如，Netflix 在流媒體行業因其內容和用戶規模，抗風險能力強於小眾競爭者。
應用：
評估企業的財務健康（債務比率、自由現金流）。
優先選擇在經濟下行周期中仍能保持市場份額的龍頭企業。
避免高風險的第二梯隊公司，除非其估值極低且有明確翻轉潛力。
4. 信息不對稱是機會來源
第一性原則：市場並非完全有效，深入研究和獨立思考可以發現被低估的機會。投資者的優勢在於理解企業或行業的真實價值。
隻買第一解讀：行業第一的公司通常被市場高度關注，信息透明，但其長期價值可能被短期噪音掩蓋。深入分析（如管理層質量、行業趨勢）可挖掘隱藏機會。
應用：
研究行業第一公司的核心驅動因素（如 Tesla 的電池技術優勢）。
關注被市場誤解的龍頭企業（如 2020 年疫情初期，Disney 因主題公園關閉被低估，但流媒體業務 Disney+ 推動其反彈）。
避免盲目追隨市場情緒或第二梯隊公司的短期題材。
5. 護城河決定持續性
第一性原則：企業的長期成功取決於其護城河（競爭壁壘），如品牌、網絡效應、成本優勢或技術壁壘。
隻買第一解讀：行業第一的公司往往擁有最強的護城河。例如，Google 在搜索引擎市場的網絡效應（用戶數據積累）使其難以被取代，而第二名如 Bing 難以撼動其地位。
應用：
識別企業的護城河類型（如 Apple 的生態係統、Coca-Cola 的品牌）。
優先投資於護城河不斷加深的龍頭公司，而非易被顛覆的第二名。
定期評估護城河是否被削弱（如技術變革、監管風險）。
6. 時間是最好的過濾器
第一性原則：時間會放大優秀企業的價值，同時暴露平庸企業的缺陷。短期投機可能帶來收益，但長期投資於高質量企業更可靠。
隻買第一解讀：選擇那些在過去 10-20 年持續證明自己是行業第一的企業，如 Microsoft 通過雲計算轉型重回巔峰，而非曇花一現的第二名。
應用：
回顧企業的曆史表現（收入增長、盈利能力、市場份額）。
投資於那些在多個經濟周期中保持領先的公司。
避免短期熱門但缺乏長期競爭力的公司。
7. 心理紀律決定成敗
第一性原則：投資的成功不僅取決於分析，還取決於控製情緒和堅持紀律。市場情緒（恐懼或貪婪）常導致錯誤決策。
隻買第一解讀：專注於行業第一可以減少情緒波動，因為龍頭企業通常更穩定，投資者更易堅持長期持有。
應用：
製定明確的買入/賣出規則（如估值上限、止損線）。
定期複盤投資決策，減少情緒驅動的交易。
避免追逐第二名公司的高波動題材（如 meme 股票）。
The Foundational Principles of My Investing Approach Part One:
* Value Creation is Core: Invest in Businesses That Create Long-Term Value
First Principle: A companys value comes from its ability to solve fundamental problems for its customers, industry, or society. Investments should focus on companies that consistently create real value through their products, services, or technology.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Prioritize companies that are dominant in their industries and possess unique competitive advantages (moats). For example, Apple has long led the smartphone market due to its ecosystem and brand loyalty, unlike its second-tier competitors.
Application:
* Evaluate a companys core competencies, such as technological patents, brand influence, or economies of scale.
* Choose companies that are either number one in a niche market or have an irreplaceable advantage (e.g., NVIDIAs leadership in AI chips).
* Avoid chasing market fads and ignoring fundamentals (e.g., pursuing a second-tier company based solely on stock price fluctuations).
* Long-Term Horizon Trumps Short-Term Volatility
First Principle: Wealth growth comes from the compounding effect of time, not from short-term market sentiment. A companys intrinsic valueits profitability and cash flowis what ultimately determines returns.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Choose industry leaders that are stable and can grow consistently through economic cycles. For example, Amazon became an industry leader by making long-term investments in cloud computing (AWS) and logistics, looking past short-term losses.
Application:
* Focus on a companys long-term strategy (e.g., RD spending, customer retention) rather than quarterly earnings fluctuations.
* Invest in market leaders within industries with high certainty of long-term growth, such as AI or clean energy.
* Avoid frequent trading driven by short-term market panic or euphoria.
* The Essential Balance of Risk and Reward
First Principle: The return on any investment is proportional to the risk taken, but risk can be managed through in-depth research and diversification. True investment opportunities are those where risk is undervalued by the market and the potential for high returns is strong.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Number one companies typically have greater resilience to risk (e.g., more stable cash flow, lower probability of bankruptcy). For instance, due to its content and user base, Netflix has a stronger ability to withstand risk in the streaming industry than its niche competitors.
Application:
* Evaluate a companys financial health (debt ratios, free cash flow).
* Prioritize market leaders that can maintain market share even during economic downturns.
* Avoid high-risk, second-tier companies unless their valuation is extremely low and they have clear potential for a turnaround.
The Foundational Principles of My Investing Approach Part Two:
* Information Asymmetry as a Source of Opportunity
First Principle: The market is not perfectly efficient; deep research and independent thinking can uncover undervalued opportunities. An investors edge lies in understanding the true value of a business or an industry.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Industry-leading companies are usually under close market scrutiny, and information is transparent, but their long-term value can be obscured by short-term noise. In-depth analysis can uncover hidden opportunities.
Application:
* Study the core drivers of leading companies (e.g., Teslas battery technology advantage).
* Focus on leading companies that the market may misunderstand.
* Avoid blindly following market sentiment or the short-term stories of second-tier companies.
* A Moat Determines Sustainability
First Principle: A companys long-term success depends on its moat, or competitive barrier, such as its brand, network effect, cost advantage, or technological barrier.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Number one companies often possess the strongest moats. For example, Googles network effect in the search engine market (user data accumulation) makes it difficult to replace.
Application:
* Identify the type of moat a company has (e.g., Apples ecosystem)
* Prioritize investing in leading companies whose moats are continuously deepening, rather than second-place firms that are easily disrupted.
* Periodically assess whether a moat is being weakened by technological change, regulatory risk, or other factors.
* Time is the Best Filter
First Principle: Time amplifies the value of great companies and exposes the flaws of mediocre ones. While short-term speculation may bring gains, investing in high-quality companies for the long term is more reliable.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Choose companies that have consistently proven to be number one over the past 10-20 years.
Application:
* Review a companys historical performance (revenue growth, profitability, market share).
* Invest in companies that have maintained their leadership through multiple economic cycles.
* Avoid short-term hot stocks that lack long-term competitiveness.
* Psychological Discipline Determines Success or Failure
First Principle: Investment success depends not only on analysis but also on controlling emotions and sticking to a disciplined plan. Market sentiment (fear or greed) often leads to poor decisions.
Buy Only the First Interpretation: Focusing on industry leaders can reduce emotional volatility because they are typically more stable, making it easier for investors to hold them for the long term.
Application:
* Establish clear rules for buying and selling.
* Regularly review investment decisions to reduce emotionally driven trading.
* Avoid chasing the high-volatility stories of second-place companies.
