Understanding the Deep Reasons of China\'s Rise is the First Ste

 

Understanding the Deep Reasons of China's Rise is the First Step for the West to Stop Its Decline

TheRiverIsFlow

  China's rapid rise and its impact on the global geopolitics, including the economic order and military balance, has shocked the West. Western countries have gone from disdain for China forty years ago, to exploiting it thirty years ago, to suspicion twenty years ago, to feeling of threat ten years ago, and now to panic. The superficial reason is the West's repeated miscalculations regarding China's strength and objectives, while the deeper reason for these misjudgments is the arrogance and prejudice towards Eastern civilization stemming from the West's long-standing position of dominance.

  Modern Western civilization originated from Greek civilization. Beginning with the Battle of Marathon in 490 BC, when the Greek city-states defeated the Persian Empire, European civilization, as a direct inheritor to the civilizations of Egypt and Mesopotamia, developed westward along the Mediterranean, benefiting from all favorable circumstances and geographic advantages. Over 2500 years, Europe's civilizational journey progressed through Ancient Greece, Rome, the Germanic-dominated Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Age of Discovery, the Industrial Revolution, the development of the Americas and global colonization, rivalries among great powers, and the unipolar world. If we consider European civilization as broad Western civilization, then Western civilization has almost always maintained a leading position relative to other civilizations. World history has been written by the West; Eurasia was divided into the Near East, Middle East, and Far East based on proximity to the West. The existing world order was established by the West, which also created the first global hegemony in human history. Thus, from a West’s viewpoint, the world is West-led and must inevitably progress according to West’s desires.

  In the distant East, Chinese civilization, with Confucianism at its core, exerted influence over present China, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and Vietnam. Geographically, Chinese civilization was separated by vast mountains and deserts from the ancient centers of civilization in Mesopotamia. Its history is fundamentally different from that of Western civilization. For Western countries, understanding the fundamental differences between Chinese and Western civilizations is essential to comprehending the deep reasons for China's rise.

 

I. Created by Geographical Environment, a State Dominated by a Single Ethnic Group and Possessing Strong Cohesion

  China is located in the eastern part of the Eurasian continent, bordered by the Pacific Ocean to the east and south, the Tibetan Plateau and the deserts of the Tarim Basin to the west, and the Mongolian Plateau to the north. From ancient times until humanity entered the era of civilization, China's geographical environment hindered direct collision and exchange between Eastern and Western civilizations. Over millennia of human civilization, Chinese civilization developed independently, primarily through self-development with secondary external influences. Only a fragile Silk Road maintained limited exchange between the two great Eastern and Western civilizations. This relative geographical isolation, on one hand, greatly limited the direct impact of other civilizations on the Chinese civilizational process, while simultaneously fostering unique characteristics not found in other civilizations.

(1) China's geography created an environment conducive to a unified state. China's main affluent regions—the North China Plain and the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain—are connected, without major mountain ranges between them, only the Yangtze River. If North and South were separate, a Northern regime could not long survive without the wealth and grain of the South, while a Southern regime relying solely on the Yangtze could not withstand repeated assaults from Northern nomadic nations. Therefore, only a regime that governed both the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins could maintain lasting rule.

  While Western civilization, starting from Ancient Greece, was in a prolonged state of war with Central Asian empires like the Persian, Arab, and Ottoman Empires. This period also included indirect impacts from Chinese civilization—the westward migration of the Xiongnu and the western expeditions of the Mongols. Wars between different civilizations caused massive shocks and influences on Western civilization. The Xiongnu migrations contributed to the decline of Rome; the Arabs brought advanced science, culture, and art to medieval Europe; the Ottoman expansion into Europe spurred the European Renaissance, which in turn triggered the Industrial Revolution.

  A simple comparison of Chinese and Western civilizations reveals that relative isolation and independent development are characteristics of Chinese civilization, while openness and development under the influence of other civilizations are characteristics of Western civilization. This difference has led to fundamental differences in national structures. From the Qin Dynasty onwards, China established a unified feudal dynasty, characterized by central control over local areas, the loyalty of scholar-officials to the imperial court, and the obedience of the people to imperial power. For over 1800 years of its 2200-year history since the Qin Dynasty, China has been a unified state. Even during periods of national division, such as the Sixteen Kingdoms, Southern and Northern Dynasties, and Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms periods, it was actually a time of ethnic integration—the integration of northern minority groups into the Han Chinese majority, and the integration of foreign cultures and religions into the local culture. The state of division also led to a significant decline in productivity and a sharp decrease in population, making the desire for unity and stability a popular sentiment. In other words, the state of disunity created the needs for unity, leading to the next unification, rather than a permanent separation. In short, due to its distance from the Middle East and Europe, other civilizations were unable to impact or interrupt China's civilizational process. The geographical isolation of China created a unified national environment.

(2) Chinese civilization fostered powerful cohesion among the Chinese people. Chinese characters are hieroglyph; their meaning does not change with different pronunciations. Since Qin Shi Huang unified China, replacing the feudal system with a centralized administrative system, he laid the foundation for a unified state. After the standardization of writing, people with different dialects could communicate through the same script, and the imperial court's decrees could reach all corners of the land. Simultaneously, the standardization of writing led to the formation of a unified language. After over 400 years of unification during the Qin and Han dynasties, a common script, a unified language, and an agrarian civilization centered on Confucian culture resulted a predominantly Han Chinese ethnic composition. This reliance of the vast majority on a common culture and way of life is the root of the powerful cohesion of the Chinese people. While Europe after Rome, was long ruled by dispersed kingdoms, with city-state autonomy and feudal self-governance within kingdoms, until dozens of independent states formed in modern times. Western alphabetic writing, starting from the Phoenician alphabet, laid the foundation for phonetic scripts. People in different regions spelled their words according to local pronunciations, thus forming different languages and scripts. Different languages, the absence of a majority ethnic group, and separate political structures could not foster popular cohesion for a unified state. This is the fundamental difference between Chinese and European civilizations.

 

II. Powerful Competitiveness Forged by Involution

  'Involution' here refers to internal excessive competition. In China, from the legendary Battle of Banquan between the Yellow Emperor and the Yan Emperor, to King Wu's conquest of King Zhou, and the contention of the Seven Warring States, a long history of internal competition has unfolded. Qin Shi Huang unified China, standardized writing characters, moral standards, and taxation criteria. This created a relatively fair environment for internal competition for the common people. The long-term policy of prioritizing agriculture over commerce led to intense competition among the Chinese people for limited land resources. The establishment of the imperial examination system provided a single, highly competitive channel for commoners to enter the bureaucracy.

  The relationship between the Central Plains dynasties and the Northern ethnic minorities also exhibited characteristics of internal competition. From the Xiongnu, Xianbei, Tujue, Liao, Jin, to the Mongols and Manchus, most Northern ethnic minorities shared Chinese civilization, and even the same religion—Buddhism—with the Han people of the Central Plains. When they entered and ruled the Central Plains, they inherited and implemented the systems of the Central Plains dynasties. Therefore, the competition between the Central Plains dynasties and Northern ethnic minorities was internal competition within the same civilization.

  Although internal competition exists in other civilizations, China's Confucian-culture-centered involution possesses distinct characteristics.

(1) Highly efficient utilization of land resources. Throughout the long agrarian age, arable land was the primary resource for the survival of the Chinese people. However, from the Qin Dynasty to the mid-Qing Dynasty (19th century), over two thousand years, China's population grew from about 20 million to 400 million, while per capita arable land decreased from about 10 mu (1 mu=1/15 hectare) to about 2 mu. During this time, the agricultural environment in the Yellow River basin continuously degraded, and the population migrated to the Yangtze River basin, causing per capita arable land in the South to drop below 1 mu. In comparison, China's grain yield per mu continuously increased: Northern grain yields rose from about 50 kg/mu (millet) to about 150 kg/mu (sorghum, wheat intercropped with corn), Southern rice yields increased from about 50 kg/mu to 250 kg/mu (double-cropping rice). During the Qing Dynasty, the yield per mu for potatoes and sweet potatoes could reach 1500 kg-2000 kg. Considering the degradation of the Northern agricultural environment, the significant nationwide decrease in per capita arable land, and the South becoming the main grain-producing region from the Song Dynasty onwards, the efficiency of land utilization by the Chinese people increased about three times.

  In comparison, the grain yield per mu (1 mu=1/15 hectare) in Europe was approximately 40-75 kg in the Mediterranean region during the Roman era, lower than the yield of about 100 kg per mu in the Han Dynasty. During the Middle Ages, the yield in Europe decreased to 20-40 kg per mu, while the yield in China during the Tang and Song dynasties was about five times that of Europe. After the European Renaissance, the yield per mu was approximately 80-100 kg, while the yield in China during the Ming and Qing dynasties was about two to three times that of Europe. It is evident that the efficiency of land utilization by the Chinese people was consistently far higher than in Europe over the long term.

(2) Highly efficient utilization of energy. China's per capita resources are far lower than those of countries outside East Asia, and its utilizable energy resources are even scarcer than in other regions. To reduce energy consumption, rural Chinese houses were mostly brick-and-wood structures, relatively low, with south-facing fronts. Northern houses had smaller windows, often using heated kang (bed-stove) for warmth. Many families had kang connected to the stove, used for both cooking and heating. To increase grain yields, Chinese farmers used various methods to accumulate fertilizer. For example, using ash from burning straw for cooking and heating, combined with collected animal manure to make compost, which was then used to improve crop yields. This recycling of energy improved energy utilization efficiency.

  Furthermore, according to statistical research, China's per capita protein intake was consistently lower than Europe's over the long term. From ancient times until the mid-20th century, it was only half or slightly more than half of Europe's per capita intake. This is because China was primarily an agricultural society, while Europe was a society where agriculture and animal husbandry coexisted. However, the diligence and endurance of the Chinese people are no less than those of other nations, and their labor productivity under the same technological conditions is not lower than other nations too. This also verifies, from another perspective, the higher energy efficiency of the Chinese people.

(3) Strong per capita competitiveness. When evaluating human competitiveness, we limit it to labor value, i.e., a person's work efficiency, labor output, social contribution, etc. It is not hard to see that an individual's labor value is related not only to intelligence, education, and motivation, but also to the technological environment they work in, the tools they use, and the level of management. When comparing the per capita competitiveness of different countries, one indicator that can be used as a reference is per capita GDP (PPP) (per capita GDP at purchasing power parity). Thirty years ago, China's per capita GDP (PPP) was only one-fifteenth of that of the United States. Today, in 2025, China's per capita GDP (PPP) is approximately one-third of that of the United States. Even the estimate of China's per capita labor value based on GDP (PPP) significantly underestimates China's actual per capita labor value. For example, the Tesla Shanghai factory accounts for a quarter of Tesla's global production capacity, but produces half of Tesla's electric vehicles. That is, the production efficiency of the Tesla Shanghai factory is three times that of other Tesla factories. Conservatively estimated, the labor value of a worker at the Tesla Shanghai factory is at least twice that of a worker at other Tesla factories.

  In scientific research and innovation, China's Nature Index ranking surpassed the US for the first time in 2024 to become world number one, and maintained the top position in 2025, with its lead continuously expanding. According to 2024 data, the total number of international papers published by Chinese researchers, and the number of papers published in the most influential journals across various disciplines, both rank number one in the world. China ranks second in the number of highly cited papers, behind only the US.

  Looking at the rapid growth of Chinese IT and high-end manufacturing companies in recent years, such as Huawei, BYD, Unitree Robotics, DeepSeek, Alibaba, Douyin (TikTok), Xiaomi, CATL, etc., it is evident that the per capita output of China's high-end researchers is rapidly approaching US levels.

  China's per capita competitiveness has long been underestimated. There are many fallacies and prejudices, such as the claims that Chinese only copy, engage in low-end industries, produce shoddy goods, and lack innovation. These fallacies ignore a basic fact: human labor value is significantly linked to the technological environment and tools used. As China's manufacturing and research conditions approach Western levels, we have seen a significant increase in China's per capita competitiveness. Whether in manufacturing or scientific research and innovation, China has transitioned from low-end and quantitative advantages thirty years ago to high-end and qualitative advantages. The rapid growth in per capita competitiveness benefits not only from improvements in manufacturing and research conditions but also, more deeply, from the potential of the Chinese people nurtured by Chinese civilization. The Confucian tenet of "excel in learning to enter officialdom" and the unique imperial examination system over 2,000 years have instilled in the Chinese people a firm belief in changing their destiny through education and learning. Modern China's education system, centered on the Gaokao, certainly has many flaws, but it is undeniable that this system has trained a vast pool of engineering and social science talent for China's modernization, including the vast majority of high-end tech talent. Therefore, China's education system is a crucial factor in the rising per capita competitiveness of the Chinese people. Coupled with the Chinese government's policies encouraging competition and fostering a fair competitive environment, and the modernization of manufacturing and research conditions, these have collectively promoted the enhancement of China's per capita competitiveness.

 

  The above has discussed how China's unique geographical environment and history created differences between Chinese and Western civilizations. These differences will be the deep-seated reasons for China's influence on the world in the coming decades. Understanding these deep reasons, moving beyond prejudice against China, and re-evaluating China's present and future based on the following points are the first steps for the West to stop its decline.

(1) There is no single best system, only systems that are continuously evolving 

  Human history has never seen universal implementation of the same system, nor will it move towards a uniform system; this is determined by the diversity of civilizations. A good system that suits a country's conditions should at least mobilize the majority of its people, unleash the country's potential, and align with the long-term interests of its people. Rather than criticizing China's system, the West would be better served by reviewing and adjusting its own systems to solve its main domestic problems and competently meet the challenges of emerging nations.

(2) It is important to view the challenges posed by China in the correct perspective 

  While China may be the main force ending the centuries-long dominance of Western civilization, this is not the end of Western civilization but possibly its rebirth. This is because, after experiencing the Western-led Industrial Revolution, global colonialism, and a unipolar world, human society will inevitably move towards a more equitable world order that benefits most countries and allows them to achieve modernization. Just as the use of iron began in Mesopotamia but later spread worldwide and drove the overall development of human society. The dominance of a few countries at the top of human society will only be a chapter in human history, not an inevitable outcome.

  On the other hand, even if China surpasses the United States in national strength, it will not establish a global hegemony like the US. Firstly, China has never been a country that ruled its neighbors through military force, let alone established a global hegemony based on military power. The Chinese philosophy is "Do not do to others what you would not have them do to you". The Chinese people have long suffered from the bullying of powerful nations and will not, after becoming powerful, bully other countries in the same way. Secondly, the times have changed. Western hegemony was built on monopolizing high-end technology (including military tech) and occupying superior geographical positions. China's rise has broken this Western monopoly and simultaneously eliminated the conditions for the emergence of a new hegemony. A new era of integration and development of Eastern and Western civilizations has begun; no country or group of countries can repeat the history of Western hegemony.

(3) China's rise will have a long-term and extensive impact on the world, and will not be interrupted by various so-called crises

  Looking back at Chinese history, changes of regime only occurred under the following situations: internal contradictions led to anti-government forces strong enough to overthrow the government; or internal contradictions combined with foreign invasion to overthrow the government. However, during periods of continuous national strength, there is not only no internal division, but also the ability to resist external aggression. Therefore, today's China will not face either of these situations in the coming decades.

  In Chinese history, a stable dynasty typically lasts for about 300 years. Three important factors will contribute to the current Chinese regime becoming a stable dynasty:

  First, the current Chinese regime was established after more than a century of profound suffering following the Opium Wars. After its founding, it experienced another thirty years of turmoil until the reform and opening up in 1979, which marked the formation of a governance consensus in Chinese society and the restoration of national confidence and cohesion. This aligns with the historical pattern of China repeatedly moving from great disorder to prosperous.

  Second, modern China by combining the strengths of Western and Chinese civilizations, is forming a development momentum that surpasses any dynasty in Chinese history. This means that China has for the first time broken through the limitations of its own civilization and geography, and its development will inevitably surpass any dynasty in Chinese history.

  Third, the Confucian spirit of valuing harmony and benevolence, deeply rooted in the Chinese people, drives China to integrate into the world and contribute to other countries with its own achievements, thus providing space for China's sustained development. These three factors will enable China to overcome various crises and achieve long-term stable development.

 

  Regardless of how the West views China's rise, it cannot change the fact that a unipolar world is a thing of the past, and a multipolar world is becoming a reality. However, a rational perspective on China's rise can prevent the enormous losses that vicious competition would inflict on both sides. Healthy competition, on the other hand, will leave room for development for both sides. The key to healthy competition is self-reflection and mutual learning. China has always been learning from the West, and the West has now reached a turning point where it needs to learn from China. The biggest challenge facing the West is China's stronger competitiveness in productivity and science & technology. This competitiveness stems from the most resilient Chinese civilization, and therefore the challenge will be long-term and extensive. For the West to win a long-term competition, it cannot rely on a few technological elites vying for dominance in AI; instead, it should confront the opponent's strengths and recognize its own weaknesses, plan for the long term, and improve national competitiveness through reforms in politics, finance, and education. The most important aspect is improving the average competitiveness of its people. This requires investing in basic education, shifting from a "happy education" model to a competitive one, and cultivating a competitive spirit and professional dedication in the younger generation. In short, human history progresses through the competition and integration of different civilizations. Fortunately, because of the globalization brought about by Western civilization, has interconnected the interests of people from different civilizations and nations. In today's irreversible era of globalization, we can anticipate that competition between civilizations is not a zero-sum game, but rather a process of mutual achievement.