U.S. Military Bases and China\'s Belt and Road Initiative

Overseas Military Bases of the United States and China's Belt and Road Initiative

This article analyzes the current status of the United States' overseas military bases and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to predict their medium- to long-term impacts on the global order.

According to publicly available data, the United States currently operates 374 overseas military bases across more than 140 countries and regions, with a total of 300,000 troops stationed abroad. These bases enable the U.S. to control critical maritime chokepoints, including the Korean Strait, the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Persian Gulf, and the Greenland-Iceland-UK passage. Overseas military bases serve as the foundation for the U.S. to project and sustain its military power globally, maintaining the international order and hegemony as defined by the U.S. These bases also bring significant economic and political benefits to the United States.

Economic Benefits:

Warfare generates substantial profits for the U.S. military-industrial complex. The arms industry is one of the most profitable sectors globally. Conflicts and wars drive weapon sales, aligning with the interests of the U.S. military-industrial complex. As the world's largest economy, the U.S. stations troops overseas to protect vital trade routes and energy resources. For example, the presence of U.S. forces in the Middle East helps stabilize oil supplies, which is crucial for the economic security of the U.S. and its allies.

Political Benefits:

Through overseas military presence, the U.S. exerts greater influence in international affairs, shaping a global order that aligns with its interests. This also serves as a way to reassure allies of its security commitments, enhancing its international standing and preparing for potential conflicts.

During the peak of the Roman Empire, it controlled territories primarily around the Mediterranean, spanning Europe, Asia, and Africa, with a land area of approximately 5 million square kilometers. The controlled seas included the Mediterranean, parts of the Black Sea, and the coastal regions of Western Europe. Similarly, during the height of the Han Dynasty, China's controlled territories were limited to Asia, with a land area comparable to that of the Roman Empire (about 5 million square kilometers). In contrast, through its allies and overseas military bases, the U.S. effectively controlled most of the world in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, excluding a few countries like China and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This represents the largest hegemonic system in human history. The network of air and sea routes connecting the U.S. mainland to its overseas military bases forms a global force projection system, embodying American democracy and underpinning the hegemony of the U.S. dollar.

On the other hand, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to the construction, ownership, and operation of 110 ports in 67 countries (according to a MERICS report). These include approximately 25 in Europe, 23 in Africa, 13 in the Middle East, 19 in the Americas, and 16 in South Asia. Additionally, 12 highway projects and 12 railway projects (completed or under construction) have been established. During the third Belt and Road Forum in 2023, China signed 32 intergovernmental cooperation projects with 34 countries, 10 cooperation projects with international or regional organizations, and established 17 bilateral platforms for scientific research, education, and finance. By 2023, trade in goods between China and BRI partner countries had doubled from 1 trillion in 2013 to over 2 trillions. At same time, China's total import and export trade increased from 4.1 trillions in 2013 to approximately 6 trillions in 2023 (WTO), with the trade surplus growing from 300 billions to 800 billions. This demonstrates that while BRI partner countries are primarily developing nations, they have contributed significantly to the growth of China's total trade volume.

Comparative Impact on the Global Order:

Both the U.S. overseas military bases and China's BRI aim to project power and influence through global networks of points and lines.

The U.S. has established a multi-layered security system worldwide through its military bases. This includes core alliances (e.g., AUKUS, Five Eyes), military alliances (e.g., NATO, U.S.-Japan-South Korea), and various security treaties with allies (e.g., U.S.-Australia-New Zealand, U.S.-Philippines, U.S.-Ukraine). This system allows the U.S. to intervene almost anywhere in the world, shaping a global order that serves its interests and ensuring the dominance of the U.S. dollar. The use of military bases to secure political and economic benefits is stable, efficient, and far-reaching, surpassing the provincial systems of ancient Rome and the tributary systems of Han and Tang China. For example, the U.S. containment of China's technological and economic development since the 1950s significantly delayed China's modernization. During the Cold War, NATO's containment and pressure on the Soviet Union were major factors leading to its collapse. The U.S. suppression of Japan's semiconductor industry successfully neutralized a potential technological rival. Similarly, U.S. control over Germany has prevented it from challenging American dominance. The extensive network of overseas military bases enables the U.S. to execute such strategies and reap substantial political and economic benefits.

However, this military-centric approach to power projection has significant disadvantages. The failures in the Vietnam War, the Afghanistan War, and the spread of extremism following the Iraq War have consumed vast amounts of U.S. military resources without achieving their political objectives, leading to a decline in U.S. influence. The root cause is that the U.S. attempts to alter the civilizational trajectories of other nations through military forces, In fact, it is promoting Western hegemony under the guise of democracy. However, the world has changed, and nations now prioritize independence and development, which fundamentally conflicts with U.S. objectives. This is the primary reason for the ultimate failure of U.S. led wars. The U.S. and its allies' support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war has cost them significant military and economic aid, with European allies suffering substantial losses due to sanctions against Russia. As Ukraine faces setbacks in the war, the U.S. may be forced to seek a ceasefire, prompting European allies to reconsider the high costs of aligning with U.S. interests, which may not align with their own. This could create fissures between the U.S. and its allies, ultimately threatening the presence of U.S. military bases in allied countries.

Since its proposal in 2013, China's Belt and Road Initiative has attracted participation from over 150 countries and 30 international organizations. China's cumulative direct investment in BRI partner countries exceeds $270 billion. The construction of ports, railways, and other transportation projects under the BRI has directly facilitated trade between China and partner countries. Chinese manufacturing industries, through wholly-owned enterprises, joint ventures, and intergovernmental cooperation, have expanded globally, transforming China from a manufacturing powerhouse into the center of a global manufacturing network. Through the BRI, China has significantly strengthened its political and economic ties with the Global South and many moderately developed countries, indirectly benefiting from their economic relationships with developed nations.

Compared to the U.S. overseas military bases, China's BRI offers several advantages in projecting power and influence:

1. The BRI focuses on mutual development and trade reciprocity, with minimal military or political conditions. It does not infringe on the sovereignty or security interests of partner countries, making it more acceptable to other nations.

2. Western civilization has only created a few developed countries over centuries. Many developing nations that adopted democratic systems remain impoverished, while some moderately developed countries have regressed due to economic crises. For these nations, economic development is their only way forward. From the perspective of human civilization, after the bipolar confrontation of the Cold War, the unipolar world, and various regional wars and great power competitions, peace and development have gradually become the mainstream. The BRI aligns with this trend, which is why it has achieved continuous success and expanding influence over the past 11 years.

3. China's strong infrastructure capabilities, advanced manufacturing level, and the diligence of its technical personnel enable BRI projects to be completed quickly, efficiently, and at low cost. Chinese enterprises, both state-owned and private, have promoted employment and improved living standards in partner countries. Compared to investments from Western countries or the World Bank, BRI investments typically offer higher cost-effectiveness and faster completion, with overall benefits surpassing other forms of investment.

However, the BRI also presents challenges for China:

1. The lack of military means to protect BRI projects has led to the suspension of some projects due to U.S. military or political pressure on partner countries, resulting in losses for Chinese enterprises. This highlights the role of U.S. overseas military bases in countering and disrupting the BRI.

2. Investments in heavily indebted countries may exacerbate their debt burdens, making it difficult to recover investments.

3. The BRI is profoundly altering global geopolitics, leading to heightened vigilance and countermeasures from Western countries, particularly the U.S. Rapidly disrupting the global order may provoke stronger Western counteractions, potentially backfiring.

The U.S. overseas military bases are a primary means of power projection but not the only one. They symbolize the overall strength of the U.S., and their role will inevitably change with the rise and fall of U.S. power. Similarly, the BRI represents China's strength, reflecting its vast manufacturing capabilities, technological advancements, and the potential of the Chinese people to drive human civilization forward. Assuming a 5 to 15 years as a medium term for the evolution of the global order, we can predict the most favorable strategies and outcomes for the U.S. and China in their competition for global influence.

For the U.S.:

President Donald Trump marks a significant shift in U.S. policy from maintaining a single polar post-Cold War world to prioritizing U.S. interests. The U.S. is not abandoning its hegemonic position but seeks to maintain it at lower costs and with reduced risks of major power conflicts, including necessary retrenchment, to focus on domestic reconstruction. Therefore, the optimal strategy for utilizing overseas military bases should include:

1. Adjusting forward deployments against China and Russia, shifting focus to overseas bases closer to the U.S. mainland. Negotiating with China and Russia to delineate spheres of influence, and increasing transparency in military engagements in hotspot areas to reduce miscalculations. Initiating U.S.-China-Russia arms control talks to lower U.S. defense expenditures. The U.S. must recognize that the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia has become the dominant factor shaping the global order. Attempting to defeat either China or Russia will provoke coordinated counteractions from both, leading to failure. The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war will demonstrate this.

2. Reducing the reliance on overseas military bases in allied defense strategies. Shifting from a predominantly coercive interventionist policy to a more carrot-based approach, helping allies and developing countries grow their economies on a reciprocal basis, while supporting the revival of U.S. domestic manufacturing and establishing secure supply chains.

3. Rebuilding U.S. manufacturing is critical to sustaining overseas military deployments. In the short term, government policies (subsidies, allied investments) should strengthen or rebuild key industries. In the medium to long term (15 years and beyond), the focus should be on education, particularly from elementary to high school, to cultivate a pragmatic and hardworking younger generation. Additionally, limiting financial speculation and reorienting capital markets toward industry, as well as restoring traditional Christian values in society, will help revive the spirit of unity, diligence, courage, and justice that characterized the founding of the U.S.

In summary, the scale and role of U.S. overseas military bases will likely decrease over the next 5 to 15 years. Their future depends on the U.S. maintaining its lead in technology and manufacturing, which in turn depends on the overall competitiveness of the American people, including innovation, labor efficiency, and manufacturing costs. Competing with emerging nations like China in labor efficiency and manufacturing costs is a daunting task that requires long-term efforts.

For China, the optimal strategy for the BRI should include:

1. Ensuring that the BRI remains an extension of China's manufacturing and technological strength. To guarantee the long-term success of the BRI, core technologies and innovations must remain within China. China must avoid the pitfalls experienced by Japan and the U.S., where the outsourcing of manufacturing led to its decline.

2. Providing secure investments to partner countries, including appropriate military aid and security cooperation, in order to protect BRI projects. However, China should avoid becoming entangled in the internal political conflicts of partner countries.

3. While Western countries, particularly the U.S., are wary of or resistant to the BRI, they also benefit directly or indirectly from it. The dilemma for Western countries is that the BRI erodes their spheres of influence while they rely on the supply chains and industrial networks it creates. Therefore, China should minimize geopolitical disruptions and consider the interests of all parties when advancing BRI projects.

The BRI will continue to expand over the next 5 to 15 years, primarily because both China and partner countries benefit from it.

The above analysis discusses the strategies for U.S. overseas military bases and China's BRI from the perspectives of their respective interests. Both are means for major powers to project influence and compete for global dominance. While history records the rise and fall of hegemonic powers, it does not simply repeat itself. If multipolarity is the inevitable direction of the global order, the end of the single polar world means that no major power should seek to become the new global hegemon. From the perspective of promoting human civilization, both U.S. overseas military bases and China's BRI can play positive roles. A potential win-win cooperation between China and the U.S. could involve combining China's manufacturing and infrastructure capabilities with U.S. capital and management expertise, supported by the security provided by U.S. overseas military bases, to jointly advance the BRI or similar initiatives, benefiting all parties. In conclusion, the global expansion of China's manufacturing and technology, symbolized by the BRI, represents a second industrial revolution following the original Industrial Revolution. If China and Western countries collaborate to promote the BRI in the Global South, it could fundamentally address global development imbalances and propel human civilization to a new stage.