救救孩子

這是從《北美保守評論》林偉雄醫生那裏看來的關於英格蘭青少年死亡率的數據，是兩個年齡組在2021年前十個月的根據疫苗狀態的每十萬人的死亡率。我專門去網站檢查了數據來源，是英國官方的人口統計數字，權威性應該是不容置疑的。英國作為最早完成全麵免疫接種的國家，數據的準確性和透明度比較高，所以這個數據的結果應該是可信的。就是說英國人民勇於犧牲自己為全世界提供了一個可以分析疫苗的利弊得失的數據庫。

首先解釋一下死亡率的意思，就是這段時間之內英格蘭的所有死亡人數，可以是任何原因：疾病，交通事故，運動傷害，自殺，或者猝死等等，這樣就避免了死亡是否是疫苗副作用的爭論。時間段是從2021年一月一號到十月三十一號，分組的唯一區別就是是否打疫苗。所以如果疫苗基本上沒有副作用的話，死亡是一種隨機事件，兩組應該沒有統計上的顯著性差異。但根據林醫生的數據，可以看到整個趨勢很明顯，死亡率隨著打疫苗的針數上升（兩針比一針高），隨著年齡減小上升（年紀越小打完疫苗後死亡率增加越顯著）。我檢查了原始數據，裏麵的比例是準確的，當然他隻選取了最年輕的兩個年齡組：10-14及15-19歲，主要應該是因為這兩個年齡組最明顯。因為青少年本來就屬於這種病毒風險極低，死亡率極低群體，一旦疫苗有了副作用死亡人數增加就很容易看出來。老年人本身就死亡率高，多死了一些人很難從死亡數據上看出來。

在數據裏麵，沒有打疫苗的全部歸為一類，而打了疫苗的分為四大類：隻打一針並超過21天的；隻打一針21天之內的；打了兩針並且第二針超過21天；打了兩針第二針沒有超過21天的。林醫生選取的是打完疫苗21天後的數據，我想原因在於打完疫苗21天之內隻是一個暫時的狀態，過幾天就會進入21天組，所以這個組別的人數相對也比較少。所有的組別之間都呈統計學上顯著差異，所以可以下結論不是抽樣隨機性誤差，唯一的解釋隻能是因為疫苗原因導致了青少年死亡率的增加。其實幾個月前也是根據英國的數據曾經有過一篇引起廣泛關注的報道，就是2021從青少年開始注射疫苗開始，幾個月的數據顯示英國青少年的死亡率比起2020同期幾乎增加了50%。當然後來又出來了別的報道來糾正這種說法。不過不是說事實不準確，而是說英國前些年的青少年死亡人數還有比2021還高的時候。所以是一種正常的波動。但如果將以前的青少年死亡增加報道和現在的死亡率一對照，二者相當一致，證明早期報道的疫苗導致青少年死亡增加並非空穴來風。唯一可能不太準確的是10-14歲打完兩針後的死亡率，因為這個群體目前隻有1千多人，隨機偏差會比較大，而千分之2.38是一個相當高的死亡率了，可能有人會覺得這個數字有點離譜。隨著人數的增加死亡率肯定會在一定範圍內變化，所以到時候不一定有千分之2.38這麽高。我將所有10-14歲的打疫苗的作為一個群體，死亡率是十萬分之39.9，與非疫苗組的4.58差異非常顯著，也明顯高於15-19歲年齡組兩針疫苗的32.8.

當然，林醫生沒有呈現別的年齡組的數據，我初略地看了一下各個年齡組的數據，可以大概描述一下。我將群體分為不打疫苗和打疫苗兩大類，然後計算群體死亡率。在20-30歲範圍，不打疫苗組的死亡率略微低於疫苗組，但不具有統計學顯著性。超過30歲，不打疫苗組的死亡率開始超過打疫苗組，並且年齡越大，差異越顯著，當然年齡越大的群體死亡率肯定也是越來越高。我們都知道這次的病毒的致死率和年齡顯著相關，所以這些數據看起來很一致，就是高風險的群體從死亡率似乎看不出疫苗的副作用，或者說看起來是利大於弊。但在風險低的群體裏麵，副作用越來越明顯，到了青少年之中明顯看來弊大於利了。當然這個很好理解，如果一個群體本身死亡率高，即使疫苗有一些副作用導致的死亡，如果沒有顯著高過病毒本身增加的死亡，那麽我們從死亡率是看不出來的。如果我們認為英國的大數據沒有被篡改的話，結論就很明顯了。疫苗的副作用明顯存在，並且在青少年中，因為疫苗導致的死亡遠遠超過了病毒本身導致的死亡。

那麽這些數據除了表明對低風險人群的副作用外，是否能夠證明疫苗對高齡人群的保護很顯著呢？其實不一定，我會具體分析為什麽。因為疫苗和病毒的政治化，所以很多相關數據其實是被操縱了的，所以不得已才用死亡率來看疫苗的副作用。但這個比較有一個先天缺陷使得數據會極大地趨向於顯示疫苗組明顯低於非疫苗組。就是不打疫苗的人都是整個時間段都是不打疫苗，而疫苗組的人數是逐漸增加。最後計算死亡率的是時候卻是按打疫苗的總人數，而這批人相當一段時間是處於非疫苗狀態，所以在這段時間之內的死亡人數都被計數到非疫苗之中，導致非疫苗人群的死亡率會顯著高於疫苗人群。舉一個例子，如15-19歲人群組，正常十個月死亡率為萬分之一。隨機分為兩組：非疫苗組和疫苗組。但非疫苗組一開始就是一百萬人，十個月下來就是死亡100人。疫苗組是每個月加十萬人（並不真打疫苗），到第十個月也是一百萬人，可到時候疫苗組的死亡人數隻有55人，這樣算下來非疫苗組的死亡率明顯高於疫苗組。但兩組都沒有任何處理，唯一差別就是取樣方法的差異，結果導致本來同樣的人群卻變成有顯著差異的兩個組。原因在於疫苗組的人員是漸漸增加，但死亡率是根據最後的人數算的。可見我們分析死亡率有一個先天缺陷就會導致結果趨向疫苗組，除非在疫苗組引入一個疫苗注射時間的係數來調整，比如六月一號加入的在最後統計中隻能算二分之一個人。死亡率越高，兩組的差別越大。如果一個高齡群體一百萬人，每個月隨機抽五萬人進疫苗組，如果每月死亡1%的人，十個月下來，到時候非疫苗組和疫苗組都是五十萬人，可死亡人數之比卻是七萬多對兩萬多。這就是我對疫苗在高風險人群中到底起到了多少有效保護存疑的原因，但即使在如此不利的情況下，青少年疫苗組還明顯超出了非疫苗組的死亡率，可見實際死亡率應該更高，而這些更高的死亡率隻能歸因於疫苗。

那麽我們就需要問一下美國的CDC及FDA，為什麽要在沒有足夠信息的情況下強推小孩子打疫苗？在前段時間FDA批準疫苗用於5-12歲小孩子的時候，雖然有不少專家談到了副作用的問題，也強調了青少年本身就是低風險，但專家組的最終結論還是利大於弊批準了疫苗應用於小孩。當英國的大數據出來後，我想問一下那些專家們，利大於弊是如何得出的？英國的數據根本就沒有疫苗的副作用，就是一個死亡率和死者的疫苗狀態，這個死亡數字比起有多少人死於疫苗副作用來說顯然更難做假。因為死於疫苗副作用可以通過各種定義來改變人數，但多少人死亡卻不容易改動。FDA現在居然還要進一步批準將疫苗應用於六個月到五歲的小孩，我已經完全無語了。為什麽在沒有明顯的好處的情況下還要一再將副作用不明的疫苗強行應用在風險極低的群體？在英國數據已經表明年齡越小潛在的危害更大的情況下，到底居心何在？我隻能呼籲：救救孩子。

下麵就是原始的excel數據。我也沒有時間分析所有的圖表，所有上述數據都來自referencetable 31中的table 9. 來源就是下麵的英國統計辦公室官方網站。

Vaccination status	Age group	Person-years	Deaths involving COVID-19	Non-COVID-19 deaths	All deaths
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	10-14	6,648	0	3	3
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	15-19	174,667	0	32	32
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	20-24	259,467	4	53	57
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	25-29	266,233	2	89	91
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	30-34	270,687	5	129	134
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	35-39	296,112	10	245	255
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	40-44	319,798	9	412	421
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	45-49	365,756	27	690	717
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	50-54	439,858	52	1,331	1,383
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	55-59	452,574	84	2,135	2,219
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	60-64	405,762	141	3,076	3,217
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	65-69	351,500	203	4,230	4,433
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	70-74	348,157	359	6,971	7,330
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	75-79	260,820	741	8,948	9,689
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	80-84	166,968	1,359	10,456	11,815
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	85-89	103,068	1,701	11,658	13,359
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago	90+	60,329	2,062	14,093	16,155
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	10-14	18,539	2	2	4
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	15-19	88,706	0	5	5
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	20-24	109,827	0	13	13
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	25-29	110,795	2	20	22
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	30-34	110,958	3	31	34
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	35-39	123,075	8	42	50
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	40-44	131,044	3	62	65
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	45-49	145,567	12	138	150
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	50-54	168,786	19	230	249
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	55-59	171,510	43	355	398
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	60-64	151,864	62	507	569
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	65-69	132,331	113	762	875
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	70-74	131,105	224	1,280	1,504
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	75-79	97,510	458	1,648	2,106
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	80-84	60,401	779	2,052	2,831
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	85-89	36,818	925	2,485	3,410
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago	90+	21,495	1,237	3,249	4,486
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	10-14	1,678	0	4	4
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	15-19	127,842	1	41	42
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	20-24	359,959	2	69	71
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	25-29	427,061	8	108	116
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	30-34	480,574	11	183	194
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	35-39	589,849	14	309	323
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	40-44	720,804	33	594	627
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	45-49	852,707	58	1,120	1,178
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	50-54	1,129,045	100	2,261	2,361
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	55-59	1,194,925	222	3,976	4,198
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	60-64	1,107,106	311	6,116	6,427
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	65-69	1,030,612	451	9,126	9,577
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	70-74	1,128,526	798	16,431	17,229
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	75-79	896,876	992	22,338	23,330
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	80-84	677,380	1,277	30,126	31,403
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	85-89	422,042	1,237	33,571	34,808
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago	90+	236,443	1,371	40,685	42,056
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	10-14	494	0	0	0
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	15-19	43,091	0	0	0
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	20-24	96,399	0	10	10
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	25-29	100,587	0	6	6
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	30-34	102,598	0	15	15
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	35-39	116,463	0	27	27
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	40-44	127,130	0	61	61
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	45-49	141,171	1	111	112
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	50-54	167,271	0	189	189
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	55-59	170,997	3	304	307
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	60-64	152,535	2	470	472
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	65-69	133,284	8	624	632
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	70-74	137,270	10	1,091	1,101
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	75-79	101,149	15	1,440	1,***
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	80-84	70,858	35	1,796	1,831
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	85-89	42,909	56	2,019	2,075
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago	90+	24,260	43	2,640	2,683
Unvaccinated	10-14	2,094,711	2	94	96
Unvaccinated	15-19	1,587,072	18	142	160
Unvaccinated	20-24	1,253,977	31	189	220
Unvaccinated	25-29	1,246,537	55	282	337
Unvaccinated	30-34	1,130,675	101	424	525
Unvaccinated	35-39	1,082,525	189	613	802
Unvaccinated	40-44	939,699	239	898	1,137
Unvaccinated	45-49	850,696	503	1,510	2,013
Unvaccinated	50-54	758,182	928	2,372	3,300
Unvaccinated	55-59	699,511	1,430	3,362	4,792
Unvaccinated	60-64	539,511	2,184	4,366	6,550
Unvaccinated	65-69	378,356	2,785	5,381	8,166
Unvaccinated	70-74	305,728	3,909	7,297	11,206
Unvaccinated	75-79	166,159	4,741	7,628	12,369
Unvaccinated	80-84	76,113	5,501	7,915	13,416
Unvaccinated	85-89	49,226	6,126	8,662	14,788
Unvaccinated	90+	34,169	6,836	10,550	17,386
Source: Office for National Statistics, National Immunisation Management Service
Notes:
1. Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures based on deaths that occurred between 1 January and 31 October 2021 and were registered by 10 November 2021. These figures represent death occurrences, there can be a delay between the date a death occurred and the date a death was registered. More information can be found in our impact of registration delays release.
2. Deaths were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10). Deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) are defined as those with an underlying cause, or any mention of, ICD-10 codes U07.1 (COVID-19 virus identified) or U07.2 (COVID-19, virus not identified). Please note, this differs from the definition used in the majority of mortality outputs.
3. Age is defined on the first day of the month.
4. The counts of deaths and person-years are for people included in the Public Health Data Asset, a linked dataset of people resident in England, who could be linked to the 2011 Census and GP Patient Register. This dataset covers approximately 79% of the population in England aged 10+. These are used to calculate the age-standardised mortality rates in Table 8.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusenglanddeathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31december2021