美英研究人員關於病毒擴散的預測

發一個美英研究人員關於病毒擴散的預測論文，全文在https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf

對於不信謠不傳謠的同學，可以直接略過。下麵是一些主要結果：
1. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified.
2.  Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
3. If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu.