船運股SB, SBLK, 和SHIP - 此輪SB和SBLK已經從低點上漲50%。 船運股漲了這麽多,終於有大佬出來指出船隻出

船運股SB, SBLK, 和SHIP - 此輪SB和SBLK已經從低點上漲50%。

 

船運股漲了這麽多,終於有大佬出來指出船隻出水裝環保設備為重大推手。我比他早喊了好幾個月。

 

With the world’s largest dry cargo ships coming out of service for refits to comply with tougher rules on emissions, charter rates are expected to remain strong, a top Cargill executive said, after posting 7-fold gains already this year.

“There are a lot of ships – especially on the capesizes – that will go into scrubber fitting which basically means they will be out of service for at least 25 days each to do so,” Jan Dieleman, president of trading firm Cargill’s ocean transportation business, told Reuters.

 

“If you add it all up, in a very short period of time you take actually quite some supply out of the market.”

 

Ship owners must cut emissions by reducing the sulphur content in fuel to 0.5% from 3.5% under the rules, which are set by the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO).

 

To comply, ship owners can use low-sulphur fuel, opt for other, more expensive clean fuels such as liquefied natural gas, or install exhaust gas cleaning systems known as scrubbers.

 

Dieleman said some ships had already been taken out of service to be fitted with scrubbers and the pace will pick up in the third and fourth quarter of this year before the regulations come into effect on January 1, 2020.

 

Having hit lows under $3,500 a day earlier this year, earnings for capesize ships already stand at more than $26,000 a day, buoyed in part by demand for iron ore.

 

Panamax船運價創六年來新高! 曲線陡得有些嚇人! 目前Panamax和Capesize的運價在PE=10下足以支撐SB=$5,SBLK=$20的股價,之所以股價還沒有跟進,是因為大家還不確定現在的船運價能不能穩定地維持下去,這的確是個需要認真研究的問題。不過,我估計至少有半年的時間會讓船運公司賺到大把的現金,減少一些債務,回購一些股票,這些都會對股價產生額外的推升。

 

通報一下,我在悄悄地建倉SHIP。SHIP現在每股淨資產應該在$2.5以上(市場價,不是賬麵價值)。本季估計還會有虧損,但是,在目前的船運價下,下一季度應該產生PE=10下至少可以支撐$5股價的盈利。

 

但是,SHIP的負債較高,因為隻有10條船,運營成本也比較高。所以投資此公司風險比投資SB和SBLK大不少,所以我隻投資了一小部分試水。SHIP目前股價在$0.6左右。

 

船運價漲瘋了!這樣的漲幅相當於每天運費漲$1,000。記住,運費每漲$1,000,SB的股價就獲得$1.4的支撐,SBLK就獲得$4的支撐。現在就看這樣的船運價能持續多久了,這才是關鍵!!!

 

Today, Tuesday, July 16 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 83 points, reaching 2011 points.

Today, Monday, July 15 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 63 points, reaching 1928 points.

Today, Friday, July 12 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 49 points, reaching 1865 points.

Today, Thursday, July 11 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 39 points, reaching 1816 points.

 

本文純屬自娛自樂，不構成任何投資建議。股市有風險，投資需謹慎，買賣文中所提及的股票所產生的盈利或虧損均應由投資者個人自負。Disclosure：我重倉SB和SBLK。