風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
《經濟學人》推出《展望世界2026》——富裕國家入不敷出，債券市場危機風險日益加劇
https://www.economist.com/worldahead2026
新聞稿由《經濟學人》提供，2025年11月10日
倫敦，2025年11月10日/PRNewswire/——《經濟學人》推出年度年終特刊《展望世界》，探討將影響來年的重要主題、趨勢和事件。《展望世界2026》是《經濟學人》展望未來年刊的第40版，標誌著該刊四十年來取得的出版成功。編輯提出的2026年十大主題及相關文章已於今日上線。
今年的《展望世界》將隨11月15日發行的《經濟學人》周刊印刷版一同發行，同時也將作為獨立報刊亭特刊出售。
在今年的《展望世界》特刊中，主編湯姆·斯坦迪奇評論道：“2026年將是充滿不確定性的一年，唐納德·特朗普對地緣政治、外交和貿易領域長期既定規則的重塑持續引發全球性影響，也使這位總統始終處於全球關注的焦點。但這一年也預示著世界將走向何方。貿易戰會導致經濟放緩嗎？人工智能會帶來繁榮、蕭條還是反彈？特朗普先生非常規的外交手段會給中東帶來持久的改變嗎？債券市場會否對那些入不敷出的富裕國家發出警告？這些問題的答案將決定未來幾年全球事務的走向。《展望世界2026》分析了這些趨勢以及其他趨勢，並探討了它們在未來一年給各國、企業和公民帶來的挑戰和機遇。”
《展望世界》雜誌今年迎來第40個年頭，探討了廣泛的議題，但其2026年的十大主題如下：
1. 美國建國250周年。在紀念美國建國250周年之際，共和黨和民主黨對同一個國家——美國——的過去、現在和未來可能會出現截然不同的描述，屆時人們可能會聽到截然不同的說法。
2. 地緣政治格局的演變。外交政策分析人士意見不一：世界是否正處於一場由美國和中國領導的新冷戰之中？或者，特朗普式的協議是否會將地球劃分為美國、俄羅斯和中國的“勢力範圍”，各自為政？這兩種可能性都不大。
3. 戰爭還是和平？答案是肯定的。如果幸運的話，加沙脆弱的和平能夠維持下去。但烏克蘭、蘇丹和緬甸的衝突仍將持續。俄羅斯和中國將通過在北歐和南海的“灰色地帶”挑釁來考驗美國對其盟友的承諾。隨著戰爭與和平的界限日益模糊，北極、軌道、海底和網絡空間的緊張局勢都將加劇。
4. 歐洲麵臨的問題。所有這些都對歐洲構成特殊的考驗。歐洲必須增加國防開支，保持與美國的關係，促進經濟增長，並應對巨額赤字，盡管緊縮政策可能會助長極右翼政黨的支持。歐洲還希望繼續成為自由貿易和環保的倡導者。它無法同時做到所有這些。
5. 中國的機遇。中國自身也麵臨著通貨緊縮、經濟增長放緩和工業過剩等問題，但特朗普的“美國優先”政策為中國提升其全球影響力開辟了新的機遇。
6. 經濟擔憂。到目前為止，美國經濟對特朗普關稅的韌性比許多人預期的要強，但這些關稅仍將抑製全球經濟增長。富裕國家入不敷出，債券市場危機的風險日益增加。
7. 對人工智能的擔憂。美國在人工智能基礎設施上的巨額支出可能掩蓋了其經濟的疲軟。泡沫會破裂嗎？
8. 複雜的氣候形勢。將升溫幅度限製在1.5攝氏度以內的目標已不可能實現，特朗普先生也對可再生能源深惡痛絕。但全球排放量可能已經達到峰值，清潔技術在全球南方蓬勃發展，企業將達到甚至超過其氣候目標——但為了避免激怒特朗普先生，他們會對此保持沉默。地熱能值得關注。
9. 體育價值觀。體育通常能讓人暫時忘卻政治——但2026年或許並非如此。足球??世界杯由美國、加拿大和墨西哥聯合舉辦，而這三個國家的關係十分緊張。球迷可能會選擇不去現場觀賽。在拉斯維加斯舉行的“增強型奧運會”可能更具爭議性：運動員可以使用興奮劑。這算是作弊嗎？還是僅僅有所不同？
10. 比 Ozempic 更好。更好、更便宜的 GLP-1 減肥藥即將問世，而且還有藥片形式。這將擴大藥物的可及性。但服用這些藥物也算是作弊嗎？
今年的版本包含一個特別版塊“2026 年地圖”，探討了地理因素在全球諸多領域中引人入勝的重要性。
Good Judgment 的“超級預測”團隊以及一個關於全球值得關注的衝突的互動圖表。
與往年一樣，《經濟學人》的記者們在“展望2026”特刊中邀請了來自政界、商界和科學界的領袖人物，他們在“特邀嘉賓”專欄中分享了他們對2026年的看法和預測：
歐盟委員會外交與安全事務負責人卡婭·卡拉斯；
加拿大總理馬克·卡尼；
印孚瑟斯聯合創始人兼董事長南丹·尼勒卡尼；
美國前政府律師傑克·戈德史密斯和羅伯特·鮑爾；
斯坦福大學美國曆史學榮譽教授理查德·懷特；
國際貨幣基金組織總裁克裏斯塔利娜·格奧爾基耶娃；
倫敦衛生與熱帶醫學院疫苗人類學家海蒂·拉爾森。
The Economist launches The World Ahead 2026-with rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing
NEWS PROVIDED BY Economist Nov 10, 2025
LONDON, Nov. 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Economist has launched The World Ahead, the annual special year-end issue from The Economist that examines important themes, trends and events that will shape the coming year. The World Ahead 2026 is the 40th edition of The Economist's future-gazing annual, marking four decades of publishing success. The editor's top ten themes for 2026 and the accompanying articles are online today on https://www.economist.com/worldahead2026.
This year The World Ahead will be included in The Economist's weekly print edition dated November 15th, as well as being sold as a stand-alone newsstand edition.
Commenting on this year's edition of The World Ahead, its editor, Tom Standage said, "2026 will be a year of uncertainty, as Donald Trump's reshaping of long-standing norms in geopolitics, diplomacy and trade continues to cause worldwide repercussions—and keeps the president in the global spotlight. But it also promises to be a year that tells us about where the world is heading. Will the trade war cause an economic slowdown? Will AI produce a boom, a bust or a backlash? Will Mr Trump's unconventional approach to diplomacy bring lasting change to the Middle East? Will the bond markets call time on rich countries that are living beyond their means? The answers to these questions will determine how global affairs unfold over the next few years. The World Ahead 2026 provides our analysis of these and other trends, and the challenges and opportunities they present to countries, companies and citizens in the coming year."
In its 40th year, The World Ahead edition discusses a broad range of topics, but its top ten themes for 2026 are as follows:
1. America's 250th. Expect to hear wildly diverging accounts of America's past, present and future, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in irreconcilably different terms to mark the 250th anniversary of its founding.
2. Geopolitical drift.Foreign-policy analysts are divided: is the world in a new cold war, between blocs led by America and China, or will a Trumpian deal divide the planet into American, Russian and Chinese "spheres of influence", in which each can do as they please? Don't count on either.
3. War or peace? Yes.With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold. But conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar. Russia and China will test America's commitment to its allies with "grey zone" provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.
4. Problems for Europe. All this poses a particular test for Europe. It must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth and deal with huge deficits, even though austerity risks stoking support for hard-right parties. It also wants to remain a leading advocate for free trade and greenery. It cannot do all of these at once.
5. China's opportunity. China has its own problems, with deflation, slowing growth and an industrial glut, but Mr Trump's "America First" policy opens up new opportunities for China to boost its global influence.
6. Economic worries.So far America's economy is proving more resilient than many expected to Mr Trump's tariffs, but they will dampen global growth. And with rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing.
7. Concerns over AI.Rampant spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence may also be concealing economic weakness in America. Will the bubble burst?
8. A mixed climate picture.Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables. But global emissions have probably peaked, clean tech is booming across the global south and firms will meet or exceed their climate targets—but will keep quiet about it to avoid Mr Trump's ire. Geothermal energy is worth watching.
9. Sporting values. Sport can usually be relied upon to provide a break from politics—but maybe not in 2026. The football World Cup is being jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico, whose relations are strained. Fans may stay away. The Enhanced Games, in Las Vegas, may be even more controversial: athletes can use perf ormance-enhancing drugs. Is it cheating—or just different?
10. Ozempic, but better. Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too. That will expand access. But is taking them cheating, too?
This year's edition includes a special section, "Mapping 2026", which considers the intriguing significance of geography in a range of global the
"superforecasting" team at Good Judgment and an interactive graphic on conflicts to watch around the world.
As in previous years, The Economist's journalists are joined in The World Ahead 2026 by leaders from politics, business and science, who add their ideas and predictions for 2026 in "By Invitation" guest articles: Kaja Kallas, head of foreign affairs and security, European Commission; Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada; Nandan Nilekani, co-founder and chairman, Infosys; Jack Goldsmith and Robert Bauer, former US government lawyers; Richard White, emeritus professor of American history, Stanford University; Kristalina Georgieva, managing director, IMF; and Heidi Larson, vaccine anthropologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
