Jeffrey Sachs 中國如何成為一個成功的國家

傑弗裏·薩克斯揭示中國如何成為一個成功的國家

亞洲崛起 2025年6月9日

在這場精彩的演講中，傑弗裏·薩克斯教授打破了關於民主與威權主義的常見迷思，並解釋了為什麽衡量一個政府的真正標準並非其標簽，而是其服務人民的成效。他深入探討了中國的崛起，並揭示了其在全球舞台上取得非凡成就的關鍵原因。無論您是否認同，這種視角都必將促使您重新思考我們如何評判不同的政治體製。

女士們，先生們，下午好！馬來西亞房屋及地方政府部長 Juan Michelle Mei 先生，蘇班加亞選區州立法議會議員；Jeffrey Chia 博士，雙威大學創始人名譽校長，雙威集團創始人兼董事長；Jeffrey Saxs 教授；Jeffrey Chia 爵士，雙威大學榮譽傑出教授，聯合國可持續發展解決方案網絡主席；Dutri 教授，雙威大學副校長；Elizabeth Lee 博士，雙威教育集團首席執行官；Sibbrandes Poppa 教授，雙威大學校長；尊敬的來賓、外交官、同事、媒體人士、朋友們；以及今天下午加入我們的各位嘉賓，感謝各位的光臨。我叫 Daniel Rahman，是亞洲戰略與領導力研究所（ASN）的首席執行官。我很高興主持今天的對話。尊敬的來賓們，女士們各位先生，今天與傑弗裏·薩克斯教授的對話題為“全球秩序變遷中的東盟”，由雙威大學和傑弗裏·薩克斯可持續發展中心共同主導，所有這些中心均由傑弗裏·查基金會所有和管理。雙威大學成立於2011年，自豪地被評為東盟第一的非政府關聯私立大學，並在2025年泰晤士高等教育亞洲大學排名中升至第141位，這是其最高排名。但最重要的是，作為一所非營利性研究型大學，雙威大學致力於開展富有影響力的研究和可持續發展驅動的創新，並得到世界一流合作夥伴的支持。其獨特的地理位置位於馬來西亞智能、可持續和綠色城鎮的典範——雙威城。馬來西亞今年擔任東盟輪值主席國，這也是我們大家相聚於此的原因。東盟峰會將於下周或即將舉行，當然，願交通對我們所有人友好。我們認為，聽取像傑弗裏·查教授這樣的全球思想領袖的意見至關重要。薩克斯教授幾十年來一直影響著國際發展話語，今天能邀請到他，我深感榮幸。女士們，先生們，現在，哦，對了，請大家為他鼓掌，當然，非常感謝大家。現在，我非常榮幸地邀請到今天的主持人，一位富有遠見的領導者，他對可持續發展和教育的承諾得到了全球的認可。他是蘇努大學的創始人兼校長，也是薩尼集團的創始董事長。同時，我邀請傑弗裏·謝博士致歡迎辭。掌聲雷動。
各位閣下，尊敬的來賓，女士們，先生們，很抱歉我不得不使用這個房間，因為我知道傑弗裏·薩克斯教授在這裏會得到熱烈的反響。很遺憾，我們的會議室已經被預訂了，我們的會議廳也被其他人預訂了。我無能為力，但我們必須在這裏進行。所以，我想，請大家耐心等待。下午好，歡迎來到聖城科洛倫波。我很榮幸能夠主持關於傑弗裏·薩克斯教授的特別對話。與傑弗裏·薩克斯教授一起探討全球秩序變遷中的阿桑問題。薩克斯教授是雙威大學傑弗裏·薩克斯可持續發展中心主席，同時也是雙威大學的傑弗裏·謝榮譽教授。作為聯合國可持續發展解決方案網絡（UNSDSN）主席，他孜孜不倦地倡導可持續發展議程。他曾擔任三任聯合國秘書長的特別顧問，其中包括現任秘書長安東尼奧·古塔裏斯。薩克斯教授將於下周來馬來西亞參加亞洲峰會。我們很高興有機會今天接待他，了解他對全球事件和問題的真知灼見。傑弗裏，我很榮幸能夠與他和他的家人成為多年的好友。索尼婭不是他的妻子。索尼婭這次不在我們身邊，而是在他身邊。
女兒麗莎教授。性在這裏。麗莎在哪裏？嗨，麗莎。麗莎·薩克斯教授是一位傑出的專家，目前是……的主任。哥倫比亞可持續投資中心，我的朋友傑弗裏，歡迎回家，每次你回來，你都用你的偉大智慧、洞察力和視角豐富我們所有人，我們很感激你與我們分享，我還要歡迎我們尊敬的住房和地方政府部長年輕婆羅門參加這次對話，當然，我們今天也邀請了我們的年輕婆羅門，日本大使閣下、澳大利亞高級專員公署以及俄羅斯、巴西、阿塞拜疆、班加羅爾和尼日利亞大使館的代表。許多極端的企業領導人和銀行家也都在這裏，歡迎我們。事實上，我們的反應非常熱烈，我們無法容納所有報名的人，就像我說的，我們不得不在隔壁開設幾個衛星會議室來舉辦這次對話。我們無法在大宴會廳和會議中心舉行這次活動，因為那裏的座位已經被訂滿了。女士們，先生們，我們生活在一個動蕩的時代，除了氣候變化和歐洲和中東的戰爭之外，我們現在正處於一個地緣政治緊張局勢可能達到自二戰以來最高水平的時代。冷戰的結束、聯合國17個可持續發展目標以及《巴黎氣候協定》本應
讓我們重回正軌，但最近關於這兩個方麵的報告表明，我們現在已經偏離了正軌。換句話說，我們正在辜負我們的孩子和子孫後代。是的，情況非常嚴重，很多人都非常擔憂。我們的一些教授告訴我，許多氣候科學家正飽受絕望和抑鬱的折磨。傑夫，你致力於推動可持續發展和世界和平，致力於正義和公平，致力於消除貧困和饑餓的詛咒。即使你無畏地繼續追求這些崇高的事業，你也樹了一些強大的敵人。我相信，
你正在采取一切預防措施，確保自己和家人的安全和福祉。
這種困境反映了我們所處的這個特殊時代，我們非常感謝你的工作，我們也關心你的安全。女士們先生們，馬來西亞的阿山提交主席團將於下周開始，令人難過的是，我們的總理爸爸斯裏·阿邁·易卜拉欣提出的議程是圍繞一個願景構建的。以包容性和可持續性為主題的共同進步，聯合國可持續發展網絡亞洲總部設在雙威大學，是世界上僅有的三個此類中心之一，致力於在推進這一目標方麵發揮自己的作用，當然，另外兩個中心分別在紐約和巴黎，我們還將與S教授一起，於本周日，即東盟半決賽前夕，在雙威大學召開關於東盟綜合能源和數字未來的高級別戰略會議，我們的聯合國可持續發展網絡亞洲團隊製定了一個由東盟公共和私營部門高級官員組成的計劃，以釋放東盟電網和綜合數字經濟的巨大潛力，我邀請大家加入我們，女士們，先生們，我們對東盟更加包容、繁榮和可持續未來的共同願望是動蕩時期的希望和積極性的源泉，像今天在座的各位一樣，我非常期待聽到S教授的觀點和見解薩克斯 (saxs) 為我們今天麵臨的挑戰所提供的幫助，不用多說，傑夫，我把麥克風交給你，謝謝你，[掌聲]如果可以的話，也許我會站在這裏，下午好，坦雷，非常感謝，就像在家一樣，呃，事實上，這裏就是家，麗莎和我都很高興來到這裏，我很高興我在舞台上，麗莎在觀眾席中，因為通常當我現在去某個地方時，他們會說“哦，你是麗莎薩克斯的父親。”所以這次她必須看著我，而不是我看著她。她是哥倫比亞大學的教授，教授氣候金融，這與我們接下來的討論以及接下來幾天非常重要的東盟-中國-海灣合作委員會峰會的挑戰息息相關。峰會本身就是一個時代的標誌，它將廣闊的亞洲、中國、東盟和西亞聚集在一起，構成了當今世界經濟的活力邊緣。因此，即將舉行的峰會是一個非常有希望的機會，也是對馬來西亞的巨大敬意。作為東盟-中國-海灣合作委員會主席國，我相信下周的峰會將取得巨大成功，馬來西亞擔任東盟主席國也將取得巨大成功。有很多事情要做，我相信東盟會做到的。
我的主要觀點是，盡管存在所有這些動蕩和毫無疑問的嚴重風險，但
我們確實有理由保持樂觀，不僅是口頭上的，而是真正的理由。
世界正在被打亂，正在快速變化，而且變化的方式令人恐懼。
表麵上是這樣，但我想說的是，在表麵之下，更深層次的
趨勢是積極的，不僅是積極的，而且是強大的，所以雙威大學倡導的可持續發展理念，正如你從隨處可見的可持續發展目標的標誌中看到的，這是正確的方向，盡管還有很多工作要做，但我相信這是世界最終能夠實現的目標。它需要實現它，也能夠實現它。在我看來，這種需求和能力的結合表明，我們將會找到前進的道路。今天的主題是全球秩序的顛覆性轉變。當然，我們每天都能感受到時代變化的速度，因此每天都會發生難以預測的事件。這種劇烈變化的根本原因在於這種巨大的不確定性。當然，世界經濟正在發生巨大的變化。我不會說我們每天都能看到它，但年複一年、十年複十年，深刻的變革正在發生，其核心是相當重要的事情，那就是亞洲結束了歐洲和美國長期主宰世界經濟的時期，亞洲已經恢複了其作為世界經濟重心的地位，而亞洲在過去的大部分時間裏都占據著這一位置。過去2000年，實際上，工業革命時期中斷了。工業革命首先在歐洲興起，如果我可以這樣說的話，它是歐洲帝國主義和大約250年歐洲主導地位的引擎，而那個時期即將結束。事實上，正是亞洲的快速追趕以及由此引發的地緣政治變化，讓我們感受到我們時代的深刻混亂和不確定性。但這種變化的根本原因是東北亞、東南亞、西亞等地區的快速發展，我們將在下周與這些國家會麵。盡管這種變化非常具有顛覆性，但它並非恐慌的原因，反而是，退一步來看，它反而是一個樂觀的理由。因為發生的事情是，一個曾經被權力和技術嚴重分裂的世界，現在真正變成了一個多極世界，其中，美國和歐洲無疑仍然非常成熟，非常強大，但不再是世界主導者。我們已經進入了真正的多極時代，這是一個巨大的挑戰，但也是……一個美好的事實，一個絕佳的機會。20世紀下半葉，一個由歐洲主導，繼歐洲之後又由美國主導的世界，並非我們想要的世界。我們想要的是一個一小部分國家在技術、軍事力量、財富和金融方麵都領先於世界其他地區。我們想要的是一個技術成果被廣泛分享的世界，而現在我們做到了。所以，我要強調的第一點，我們這個時代的基本經濟事實，就是經濟學家所說的“條件趨同”，即無論出於何種曆史原因，在技術和經濟上落後於其他國家的國家，無論是在收入方麵，還是在基礎設施和技術的推廣方麵，都有機會趕上或超越那些領先的國家，因為當他們建設新的基礎設施時，相信我，這就是跨越式發展。如果你想回想一下這一點，你可以飛往美國機場，你會記得，這個世界的這個地區正在真正地跨越式發展，並且正在建設更現代化的基礎設施。 21世紀，你會發現，世界上一些所謂的發達經濟體的情況比現在更糟糕。這種經濟變革無疑正在造成地緣政治緊張局勢，這在短期內非常危險，我稍後會再談這個問題。但我想說，除了經濟趨同之外，我們還有其他根本性變革的驅動力。我應該提到，我使用了“條件趨同”這個詞，這意味著追趕或跨越式發展並非自動發生，而是一個經濟體或一個地區的一種潛力。如果治理不善，如果經濟戰略不力，這個世界就有可能陷入困境。如果公共部門的表現不如私營部門，那麽這種潛力就無法實現。但更快增長的機會，快速增長的能力，是我們這個時代的現實。我們這個時代的現實是，幾乎所有亞洲國家都在利用這一點。近幾十年來，中華人民共和國經曆了40年的顯著增長。東盟大部分地區（盡管不是全部）也都實現了快速增長。我們現在擁有印度每年以6%到7%的速度增長，實際上是世界上主要經濟體中最快的增長速度，這也是一個重大的變化，我們也看到亞洲其他地區也出現了這種快速的經濟發展。我幾分鍾後會指出，我認為非洲也會發生同樣的情況。由於曆史和地理等諸多原因，非洲是迄今為止世界經濟最落後的地區，但這將是未來40年的一個時代。非洲的經濟發展也同樣迅速。除了經濟變革和地緣政治變革之外，還有三大顛覆性力量相互關聯。但當今經濟變革的驅動力和顛覆性發展的最大推動力，都是技術變革的驚人速度。這並非必然，但它就是發生了。數字革命的革命性和生產力遠超人們普遍預期，這一點並非必然。即使在10年或20年前，我們也都知道這一點，並且每時每刻都能感受到它。
人工智能推動了大型語言模型的發展，這些似乎
隻是在過去幾年裏突然出現在我們麵前，對我們大多數人來說，這都是事實。
當然，科學家、計算機科學家、數學家、電氣工程師以及其他相關領域的人士，至少在過去75年裏一直在研究這場革命的潛在現實。數字革命的起源可以追溯到1936年艾倫·圖靈的設想，以及約翰·馮· 20世紀40年代初，人類的智慧和創造力得到了極大的發展，但這需要一係列技術的進步，包括晶體管、集成電路、半導體和微處理器，以及萬維網的發明、人工智能和神經網絡的出現。這些技術最初誕生於20世紀50年代，但在1970年左右就走向了衰落。而我們這個時代的奇跡，在過去的90年裏發生了太多事情，讓我們以前所未有的速度發展。這場數字革命的魅力在於，它正在徹底改變每一個科學領域，這不僅影響著計算和人工智能，也影響著生物科學、材料科學以及科學技術的所有其他領域。這些技術深刻地影響著科學和技術的各個方麵。這場革命之所以如此具有顛覆性，當然是因為任何深刻的技術變革都會改變我們的工作方式、生活方式、城市布局、城市化路徑以及我們生活的時間分配。我們大部分時間都在盯著屏幕，無論是在工作還是在通勤。這一切都隨著科技進步的浪潮而改變，而且在未來25年裏，這些改變可能會比以往任何時候都更加徹底，而這些改變的方式在很大程度上仍是未知的，甚至在現階段是無法預知的。此外，經濟、地緣政治和技術變革當然也帶來了生態災難，它正在同時出現。這並非偶然，也不是偶然的，但經濟的成功也帶來了副作用，其中最主要、最顯著、最不利的副作用當然是生態副作用。現代世界經濟依靠化石燃料發展起來，化石燃料的出現完全是偶然的，不是因為它們本身就是化石燃料，而是因為它們燃燒時會改變氣候。這完全是偶然的。這並不意味著化石燃料不道德或存在問題，而是指二氧化碳的量子力學特性，也就是它恰好吸收紅外輻射，以及二氧化碳在大氣中存在的原因。二氧化碳的三個原子以這種方式排列，意味著二氧化碳濃度的上升正在使地球變暖。這真是倒黴，呃，這倒黴的意思是，事情本不必如此。有很多化合物的量子力學性質不符合溫室氣體的標準，但二氧化碳恰好是其中之一。女士們先生們，129年前，這一點就被明確地認識到了，所以這並非什麽新鮮事。1896年，諾貝爾獎獲得者、瑞典化學家斯凡特·伊拉尼烏斯用鉛筆和紙，當然沒有計算機模型，因為當時沒有計算機，也沒有氣候模型，因為當時沒有氣候模型。但他憑借對二氧化碳吸收光譜含義的深刻理解，以及在19世紀80年代和90年代在實驗室中證實的二氧化碳吸收光譜，認識到更多的二氧化碳將使地球變暖。他用紙和鉛筆，在18個月的時間裏，得出結論：如果二氧化碳翻倍。大氣中的二氧化碳濃度將導致約5攝氏度的升溫，而所謂的氣候敏感性在129年後被證明是完全正確的，呃，實際上，呃，以一種絕對令人擔憂的方式完全正確，因為直到幾年前，人們還說伊朗高估了氣候敏感性，這是錯誤的，因為各種反饋意見和IPCC（政府間小組，為我們提供了科學共識）的說法是，二氧化碳濃度翻倍，氣候敏感性僅為3攝氏度。
我在哥倫比亞大學有一位非常煩人的同事，呃，他
碰巧是個天才，呃，也是一個非常勇敢的人，也是美國頂尖的氣候學家，名叫詹姆斯·漢斯。我每次在這裏發言都會提到他，因為他總是給我帶來壞消息，所以我喜歡分享壞消息，隻是為了讓我擺脫煩惱。但他今年早些時候寫了一篇論文，說“現在所有關於地球能量不平衡的觀測證據（現在可以通過衛星直接測量）以及古代氣候溫度變化的古氣候記錄表明，二氧化碳翻倍的敏感度是4.8°C（8°C）。順便說一句，漢森非常煩人，因為40年來，他幾乎在所有事情上都是正確的。作為我安靜的同事，他把我嚇得魂飛魄散了25年，因為他會走到我麵前說：‘傑夫，情況比我們想象的要糟糕得多。’嗯，實際上，你們都知道，我們的研究結果已經突破了1.5°C的海平麵上升，這是我們10年前在巴黎氣候大會上說過的，我們不會允許這種情況發生，而僅僅10年後，我們就遠遠提前實現了預期目標。”與工業化前相比，全球氣溫上升了1.5攝氏度，而工業化前通常被認為是1850年至1900年或1880年至1920年的平均氣溫。
以三年前的平均氣溫為基準，我們現在的氣溫比那時高了1.5攝氏度。
有人說，這隻是暫時的，是厄爾尼諾現象造成的。但現在，我們
經曆了厄爾尼諾、列寧格勒、中性氣候，氣溫
徘徊在1.5攝氏度。漢森和許多其他氣候科學家認為，這是因為潛在的敏感度比我們想象的要高，而且由於遠洋運輸造成的汙染，特別是硫酸鹽氣溶膠遮蔽了陽光，一些變暖現象被掩蓋了。但隨著遠洋運輸的清潔，潛在的更快的變暖速度暴露出來。女士們，先生們，我可以說，這種氣候變化是正在發生的更普遍的生態災難的一部分。
我們仍然沒有認真對待，因為它不是……不僅僅是氣候變化以及氣候變化帶來的所有影響，還有對生態係統的巨大破壞。想想馬來西亞、整個東南亞的森林砍伐，還有剛果盆地和亞馬遜地區的森林砍伐。許多雨林地區正在達到臨界點，因為雨林通過其引發的水文循環，將降雨輸送到雨林邊緣，從而提供自身的降雨。如果砍伐了足夠多的雨林，雨林就會變成旱地，這種情況就有可能發生在亞馬遜南部，目前已經接近臨界點。不僅雨林構成威脅，我們的濕地、高山地區、世界上的北方地區、世界上的漁業資源以及世界上的沿海地區都麵臨著威脅。因此，物種正在大量減少，越來越多的物種麵臨滅絕的危險，越來越多的生態係統麵臨著滅絕的危險。臨界點會引發某種生態崩潰，然後是生態災難的第三個維度，那就是現在無處不在的化學汙染物，我們體內的
微塑料，我們大腦中的
我們生活在化學汙染物的海洋中。
因為我們擁有現代化的化學工業，它不僅製造了塑料和其他我們使用的東西，還造成了空氣、淡水、土壤和海洋的普遍汙染。現在，我聽起來並不樂觀，
但請允許我快速補充一下，這些挑戰是有解決方案的，我們現在知道，科學家和技術人員已經發明了一些方法，可以為我們找到出路。問題在於以更快的速度、更廣的範圍和更大的規模應用這些方法，才能真正解決這些問題。因此，根本問題是政治問題，而不是技術問題。因為存在解決這些問題的方案，
但我們並沒有大規模地解決它們。我想提到的最後一個幹擾因素是人口結構變化，因為我們正處於人口結構快速變化的時期，它以多種形式出現，取決於在亞洲部分地區，人口結構的快速變化意味著人口增長的結束和人口的快速老齡化，實際上，中國不僅達到了人口峰值，而且還進入了人口快速下降的時期。中國已經達到了人口峰值。如果對中國的人口統計數據進行合理的推斷，到本世紀末，中國人口將下降到
10億以下，但很有可能
低於8億。因此，由於生育率如此之低，人口將急劇下降。與此同時，人口老齡化將非常嚴重，平均年齡接近60歲。這是一個巨大的社會變革。世界其他地區仍處於人口快速增長階段，非洲是生育率仍然很高的大陸，因此人口數量將不斷擴大。到本世紀中葉，非洲人口將從目前的14億增至25億，占世界人口的比例將從18%增至25%以上。如果你進行一些推斷，雖然有些機械，但進行過多的推斷是有風險的。到2100年，非洲人口將達到近40億，而世界人口總數約為100億。因此，非洲人口將占世界人口的近40%。從20世紀中期（1950年到2100年）非洲人口占世界人口的比例約為10%。因此，人口結構也發生了巨大的變化，這意味著移民的大規模遷移，也意味著經濟活動地點的大規模變化等等。綜合起來，我們顯然正處於一個極具顛覆性的變革時期，我們感受到地球的震動，我們感到沒有人能夠完全掌控局麵。但我認為還有一個因素也很重要，也值得注意。我不知道該如何委婉地表達，但呃，美國正在精神崩潰。嗯，這是正在發生的事情的另一個因素。幾十年來，美國一直是世界上最強大的國家，占據主導地位的經濟體和技術領導者。兩次世界大戰以驚人的速度結束了歐洲的統治地位。因為這些戰爭本質上是歐洲內戰，在那個地區，其破壞力達到了工業規模，呃，殘酷程度之高令人難以想象。這種情況在1914年至1945年間發生了兩次。
所以到那個時期結束時，歐洲在物質上遭到摧毀，歐洲在道德上
也陷入了困境，歐洲在經濟上也破產了。這也是
該地區帝國時代的終結。因為歐洲已經精疲力竭，一些國家試圖與之抗爭一段時間，但現實擺在了所有人的麵前。除了幾個島嶼之外，歐洲帝國主義也淪為帝國主義的傀儡。昨天，英國又占領了一個島嶼。嗯，基本上，歐洲的統治時期結束了，美國成為了唯一的主要強國。因為美國在兩次世界大戰中，隻有一天時間是在美洲大陸上進行的。土壤，那當然是1941年12月7日，日本襲擊了珍珠港海軍基地。除此之外，美國不僅建立了自己的工業，發展了自己的技術，推進了技術發展。第二次世界大戰是一段令人震驚的技術進步時期，這與戰爭的努力息息相關。雷達、半導體、各種航空電子和航天技術的發明、火箭技術、控製論和計算機技術等等，以及二戰帶來的許多其他進步。希特勒的瘋狂驅使整整一代世界頂尖科學家來到美國海岸，那些幸存下來的科學家。因此，美國不僅擁有獨特的物理基礎設施和獨特的工業規模，而且還擁有世界科學領導地位，除了蘇聯的一些偉大科學家之外，但除了那一個例外，美國一直占據主導地位，美國認為這意味著統治地位基本上是永遠的，因為當一個國家以這種方式掌權時，他們相信自己的美德，他們閱讀自己的頭條新聞，閱讀他們的美國的新聞稿和新聞稿是
美國世紀，嗯，這是亨利·洛斯在1941年提出的，我們還沒
夠
維持一個世紀，但他們也沒能維持一百年，但美國認為它會無限期地成為世界霸主，幾十年來，美國確實在技術上領先，但聰明的人、創意、教育、科學技術傳播開來，世界其他地區也為這些進步發展了自己的地盤。我不想贅述這個故事，隻想說，首先是日本從二戰的廢墟中崛起，然後是所謂的亞洲四小龍，嗯，台灣、香港、嗯，新加坡，嗯，抱歉，我漏掉了一個，還有韓國，不好意思，韓國，大韓民國，這四個國家都效仿日本模式，嗯，順便說一下，在很多方麵，在某些情況下，幾乎在製度上都是如此。實現了快速增長，然後中國在文化大革命結束時終於意識到自己也能做到同樣的事情。到了今天，不得不說，東亞在技術領先地位方麵絕對可以與美國匹敵。尤其是在中國，它在很多技術領域都與美國不相上下，甚至領先於美國。在生產方麵，不僅是設計和概念方麵，毫無疑問，亞洲在21世紀先進技術的實際生產方麵遠遠領先於美國。所以美國當時並沒有指望這一點。但更有趣的是，我認為從地緣政治角度來看，美國的發展非常順利，在整個冷戰時期，它在財政、經濟和技術上都占據主導地位，而蘇聯在軍事領域和太空技術領域至少在軍事上是真正的競爭對手。簡單來說，1991年底蘇聯解體，變成15個加盟共和國，這在美國人的心目中證實了，這不僅僅是美國世紀，也許是美國千年。當時的想法是，未來幾十年內，任何地方都不會有競爭對手。現在，美國完全掌控了局麵，誰能與美國抗衡？蘇聯解體後，美國考慮到世界上大多數其他地區都擁有美國政治和美國軟帝國的全資子公司。
如果我可以這麽說的話，華盛頓的經濟學家不太好。
我不得不說，他們不懂如何展望未來，不了解更深層次的趨勢。他們從未了解中國，而且從那時到今天，他們仍然不了解中國。他們沒有前瞻性的認知。中國是一個對抗蘇聯的有用的稻米種植盟友，這就是美國人想象中的中國，或者是一個為美國兒童生產玩具的好地方，正如唐納德·特朗普幾天前所說。戰爭意味著美國孩子會比平時擁有的娃娃多一些，少一些，呃 ...嗯，所以我認為亞洲開發銀行認為這是他們出版過的最糟糕的東西，我不這麽認為，所有副本可能都被銷毀了，嗯，但無論如何，當時的情緒是亞洲永遠無法真正趕上，這是一個泡沫。嗯，嗯，有點誇張等等，但那本書非常準確地指出，要看長期的深層趨勢，而不是短期的周期性現象，而且它沒有考慮或研究短期商業周期，而是著眼於25年的周期。它的觀點是正確的，那就是亞洲將繼續保持快速增長，我想說，亞洲的增長速度超過了我在1997年的預測。雖然這是一個非常樂觀和準確的評估，但亞洲，尤其是中國，所做的是縮小創新差距和技術差距。所以這可能是最引人注目的事實，那就是，不僅東亞正在生產尖端技術，而且現在的創新東亞也在崛起，但我想表達的觀點其實是心理層麵，而非技術或經濟層麵。美國對這一切深感困惑，美國世紀在哪裏？它應該至少持續到2041年，如果不是的話。2141年，突然間它消失了，所以我們處於高度神經質的狀態。現在我們非常焦慮，很難找到一個人，能坐下來跟我們說：“冷靜下來，沒關係，沒有人奪走你的美好生活，中國沒有入侵你，中國不是威脅。呃，它非常成功，但你應該享受這種成功。”呃，呃，不，不，不，不，不，不，不，我們現在麵臨的另一個因素是對美國失去領導力的強烈反應，這是一種非常深刻且令人不安的反應。
我不得不說，我們現在經曆的大多數衝突，
無論是在中東，還是在烏克蘭，還是在東亞的緊張局勢，
美國始終是這些衝突的起因之一。
但實際上，大多數衝突的根源在於美國誇大了其對世界其他國家發號施令的能力。
而這正是美國不明白的，它不能簡單地告訴俄羅斯，我們可以在烏克蘭或其他鄰國為所欲為，因為俄羅斯不希望在其邊境建立美國軍事基地，就像美國不希望在西半球建立俄羅斯軍事基地一樣。但美國無法理解其中的互惠性，也無法理解“己所不欲，勿施於人”的黃金法則。所以我們當時沒有意識到這一點，而許多其他危機也都有這種特點。
戲劇性的是，不幸的是，美國
現在應對這一問題是多麽的無效，這就是為什麽我們才會出現這次關稅爆發，
這完全是一場鬧劇，而不是真正的事件。它之所以是一場鬧劇，是因為
提高關稅與美國的需求無關，它不是解決任何問題的方案，
這就是為什麽關稅持續了兩天，股市
就崩盤了。債券市場崩潰了，有人出來
向總統解釋，你最好停止這種做法，這種情況持續了大約8周，因為中國表示，我們會??采取與你相同的措施，然後美國
也放棄了，這就是我所說的對現實的
完全失常的反應，即美國無法主導事態發展。唐納德·特朗普認為美國市場如此重要，如此占據主導地位，以至於任何國家都隻能屈服於美國，呃呃，屈服於美國的意誌。這根本不正確，這不是正確的理解。美國進口市場
現在隻占全球進口的13%左右，所以你可以完全關閉美國市場，
世界其他國家也會找到相處得很好的方法。
確實，這幾乎要經受考驗了，但美國很快做出了讓步，
我認為它不會再卷土重來。總而言之，讓我總結一下，有些反應要糟糕得多。呃，我們正處於我所說的美國文化大革命之中，這不是一件好事。呃，文化大革命進展不順利。呃，它們實際上使中國倒退了20年。昨天，美國驅逐了哈佛大學的外國學生。這不是玩笑，這是瘋了。這是一種自我毀滅，其速度之快，除了從心理學角度來看，是絕對無法理解的。這是一種反彈、怨恨、侵略和傲慢，旨在摧毀你們繁榮的核心。所以，我知道雙威大學歡迎外國學生，[掌聲]而且這將帶來巨大的回報。所以，讓我以以下觀察作為結束。無論從哪個角度來看生態危機，或者世界上仍然貧困的人們，你都應該像工程師一樣係統地提出問題。我知道這個房間裏坐滿了頂尖的工程師，我遇到了幾位來自Seammens的工程師，呃，易衝是我們這個時代最偉大的工程師之一。呃，如果你從工程的角度來看待這個問題我喜歡工程師的一點是，他們會說：“你告訴我你想要的規格，我就能告訴你怎麽建造。”針對我們麵臨的問題，我們可以將能源係統重塑為一個零碳能源係統，使其高效運轉，適應快速經濟發展，淨化空氣，並帶來其他一些協同效益，這與我們正在積極參與的先進數字經濟完全一致，我希望東盟在今年的係列峰會上能夠將其作為目標，因為東盟應該擁有一個麵向未來的最先進的21世紀綠色清潔能源係統。如果你看看其他任何可持續發展目標，並以非常實用的工程方式提出這個問題，就能做到這一點。所有孩子都能上學嗎？當然可以。令人難以置信的是，實際上有數億孩子沒有上學。這是缺乏組織和融資策略的問題，而融資策略並非技術層麵的決定性因素。無論如何，每個人都能獲得醫療保健嗎？隨著人工智能的進步，醫療保健服務能夠……在過去的兩三年裏，任何地方的醫療質量都大幅提升。
這不僅僅是一個願望，而是在很多地方正在發生。因為現在大多數事情都不需要醫生在附近，你可以進行遠程成像、遠程診斷，還可以做很多事情，這些事情不需要在偏遠地區建設基礎設施，而這些在兩年五年前甚至十年前都是不可能的。所以我們並不缺乏
實際的解決方案，我們缺乏的是組織能力，以及將我們大學、研究實驗室、智庫和政府的專業知識整合起來，以便有效地完成這項工作。順便說一句，我認為中國是世界上最成功地將高水平的分析和長期的政府規劃結合起來的國家。這就是為什麽中國剛剛建成了第5萬公裏的高鐵。他們以世界其他任何地方都沒有的方式建設了基礎設施，這就是為什麽他們要新建300公裏的高鐵。目前，每年新增太陽能發電量達 1000 吉瓦，未來一兩年內可能達到 500 吉瓦。大規模轉型的能力已近在眼前，我們需要組織、規劃和專業知識，最終實現這一目標的需要是強有力的區域一體化。
問題無法在任何地方的國家層麵解決，甚至更是如此。
對於印度等大國來說，他們需要來自喜馬拉雅山的水電。
來自尼泊爾和不丹的水電。中國需要將其電網與
隔壁的蒙古以及東南亞，實際上，美國，互聯互通。
為了實現能源係統的脫碳，我們絕對需要加拿大的水電和墨西哥的太陽能。當然是東盟十國。
沒有哪個國家能夠獨自實現這種轉變。
所以，東盟峰會如此重要，馬來西亞擔任主席國也如此重要。
因為區域集團不再是令人愉快的事情。
與鄰國舉行會議，這對我們取得成功至關重要。
我們需要區域層麵的治理，當然，我們在東亞需要的規模。
至少要達到區域全麵經濟夥伴關係（ARP）的經濟水平。
ARP是區域全麵經濟夥伴關係，它將中國、日本、韓國、東盟、澳大利亞和新西蘭聚集在一起。我設想所有15個國家都將納入一個綜合能源係統。
甚至通過海底電纜將澳大利亞與印度尼西亞連接起來。
然後連接到東盟其他國家。
順便說一下，在座的Zammons先生提出了一個想法。
對於歐洲來說，他以前被稱為“沙漠技術”（Desertech），即將整個歐洲電網與北非、
以及中東連接起來。
歐洲失去了。西曼斯先生指明了方向，但政客們卻沒有遵循，嗯，但這正是我們尋求區域解決方案所需要的邏輯。中國將在該地區發揮巨大而積極的作用，順便說一句，美國並沒有永遠消失，嗯，我們隻需要度過我們的文化革命，非常感謝。
非常精彩。
非常感謝薩克斯教授，嗯，你知道，那場演講的毅力和熱情，我想，
每個人都能清楚地感受到。接下來，我相信大家都非常渴望問答環節，因此，由我來主持我們的主持人對話。
觀眾問答環節，我想邀請查桑威大學的副校長達特裏博士伊德裏斯·賈拉，
以及一位受人尊敬的國家轉型政策和戰略領袖，最近很受歡迎的播客。
斯裏博士，請您發言，謝謝。
非常感謝，嗯，很高興能坐在兩位傑弗裏斯旁邊。嗯，我有很多問題。已經發布，呃，也許我已經發布了。如果您覺得我有機會提問，我很樂意邀請??您參與坦特裏活動。
一個問題，好嗎？
傑夫，和您以及我們這些關心人類命運的人一樣，我深感擔憂。我投入了如此多的時間、精力和資源來建立像傑弗裏·薩克斯中心這樣的機構，
以及在薩姆大學設立聯合國科學、技術和戰略網絡亞洲總部。
看起來，隻需要白宮就能扭轉一切，顛覆世界。
你認為我們如何才能克服這一真正的挑戰，推進可持續發展議程，並實現為我們的子孫後代創造更美好未來的希望。
傑夫，非常感謝。
我認為，首先，呃，我再說一些關於美國的負麵評價，然後再說一些正麵評價。
但首先，美國占世界??人口的4.1%，
正如我所說，它大約占世界的14%。
GDP大約占世界GDP的14%。占全球二氧化碳排放量的14%，這很重要，但如果你用所謂的國際價格或購買力價格來衡量GDP，它就不是決定性的。中國比美國大約大30%。正如我剛才所說，美國有一個相當於世界86%的國家。美國不僅在相對規模和重要性上正在下降，而且目前它正在放棄國際責任。美國已經宣布退出氣候協定，也就是《巴黎協定》。美國基本上正在退出許多多邊活動，包括世界衛生組織和其他組織。因為對失去地位的反應是，如果我不是第一，我就不想和你玩。我會以其他方式成為第一。所以美國處於一種心理恐慌之中，正如我所解釋的那樣，它不想遵守規則。它不想玩。根據貿易規則，它不想停止排放，也不想資助聯合國，等等等等，但世界其他國家並沒有因此改變方向。你沒有看到世界其他國家站出來，最終站出來談論唐納德·特朗普，說這就是我們想要的領導力，但這並沒有發生。現在的情況是，每個人都在忙著……我們該怎麽辦……我們應該怎麽做等等。但不是我們如何跟隨美國放棄所有這些……多邊目標還沒有實現。聯合國層麵正在發生的事情……是一種不同的理解，那就是我們目前在全球議程上不會達成一致，但他們使用了一個短語……實質性共識，這意味著世界上大多數……實際上，世界上絕大多數國家仍然簽署了議程，而一個或幾個國家卻沒有……我認為這就是我們現在的現實，首先全球議程
現在還沒有被顛覆，盡管如此，它也還沒有實現
而且沒有實現，因為我們現在大部分時間都浪費在了衝突和分裂上，領導人甚至沒有團結美國
沒有聚在一起討論氣候問題，他們每天都在談論
戰爭
幾乎每天都在談論
英國首相、法國總統
德國總理和波蘭總理會見了紮林斯基先生
目的是什麽，我不知道，但他們現在都沒有日常工作了
他們每天都想說我們支持烏克蘭，好吧，這是
一種不同的妄想，那就是我們不必談論和平
我們應該隻談論戰爭
所以，當美國缺席的時候
歐洲陷入了一種不同的瘋狂，因為它失去了它最大的保護者
事實上，美國未來不會保衛歐洲，但
事實是俄羅斯不會入侵歐洲
所以，有一種不同的
幻想正在醞釀，那就是俄羅斯即將出現在歐洲的家門口呃，巴黎，呃，就好像我們
在1815年，呃，而不是呃在
2025年，所以這對我們來說也是浪費時間，有很多時間被浪費了。
烏克蘭戰爭是一場極其浪費時間的戰爭，除了
美國想要擴大北約，而當俄羅斯說不的時候，美國
說我們不在乎你們說什麽，最終爆發了戰爭，這就是
這場戰爭的本質，也是中東戰爭的本質
也非常明確，以色列說我們想要
世界其他國家說的一切，你們得一半，以色列說我們想要
美國說的一切，我們都會按照以色列說的做，185個國家說的劃分
財產，實際上它不是一半，如果你看看當時巴勒斯坦的情況，
英國在1921年占領了它，以色列在其1967年邊界下的份額已經是
78%，但這還不夠好以色列的激進分子想要
100% 的選票，而巴勒斯坦連22%都拿不到，所以我們在
一些顯而易見的事情上浪費時間。185個國家說要成立兩個國家，而
美國和以色列都說不，以色列占據主導地位，在這個問題得到解決之前，
戰爭將繼續下去，這場悲劇，隻需要一次投票變化，而不是
以色列，因為以色列沒有否決權，而美國隻要放棄否決權，
巴勒斯坦建國，中東就能真正實現和平，這真是太神奇了。呃，這些問題
浪費時間，可能會持續數十年，當然，它們是悲劇，是災難，但它們的核心並不複雜，唯一讓它們看起來複雜的是圍繞著它們的所有宣傳，但如果你退一步思考，
了解基本情況，它們甚至並不複雜，所以關鍵在於
議程並沒有消失。而且
我們實際執行可持續發展目標、《巴黎氣候協定》或《生物多樣性公約》的能力
比5年前強得多，比20年前更是強得多。
但感覺並非如此，因為現在沒人談論它。
討論的都是烏克蘭戰爭、唐納德·特朗普的關稅，呃，或者禁止外國學生
進入哈佛大學，或者其他一些與我們的世界完全無關的事情，我們都在浪費時間。
我的觀點是，雖然世界上大多數國家並不參與其中，但這就是新聞周期的主導，
但這不是大多數國家想要的，也不是
大多數國家實際上在做的事情。我再次提到中國。中國是一個非常
嚴肅的政府，它有計劃，有目標，有10年和20年的願景，並且正在構建這些願景，它不會像
這些日常新聞周期那樣受到影響。
我認為東盟的情況可以相同，也應該相同，我
相信世界上大多數地區都是如此，所以我對此並不悲觀。
我感到沮喪，我對自己的國家感到有點震驚，
但實際上我已經密切關注了它50年。
海明威小說《太陽照常升起》中有一個著名的人物被問到，你是如何
破產的，答案是先慢慢地，然後很快，呃，呃，人們也可以說
美國的政治危機也是如此，長期以來緩慢地，現在非常
迅速，但它占據了新聞周期，卻沒有真正吸引全世界的注意力，不應該被允許。我們最大的危險是
這些衝突失控了，在這裏，讓我為特朗普先生說幾句話，他其實不喜歡戰爭，這是最好的新聞。
可以想象，他喜歡錢嗎？他喜歡大飛機，他喜歡各種各樣的東西，就像我們討論的那樣，他喜歡高爾夫，但是，他不喜歡戰爭，他不是戰爭販子，他正在與普京總統和解，雖然他在美國因此受到攻擊，但他做的，絕對是正確的，他正在與伊朗和解，隻是美國每個人都在對他大喊大叫，不要這樣做，但他的直覺是，是的，達成協議，可能會有一些錢，這實際上是件好事，所以即使這樣，也不全是壞事，這位總統不喜歡戰爭，喬·拜登要麽喜歡戰爭，要麽隻是當時不在場。有人喜歡戰爭，但我們經曆了四年的戰爭，而
特朗普實際上正在努力讓戰爭逐漸平息，所以這一切其實是想說，我知道你
問我這個問題，呃，你知道我們是不是正在失去整個議程嗎？
答案是否定的，我們沒有失去議程，氣候災難無論如何都會把議程放在首位，但我們
現在分心太多了，我們國家的政治太奇怪了，
過去很重要，世界需要做的是學會不要隻關注那一點點，呃，而是要把注意力放在正確的事情上，
從長遠來看，這非常有趣。
謝謝傑夫，傑夫的主題是關於全球秩序的轉變，我隻是想
提出這一點，三周前我在哈佛，我每年在那裏講課兩次，
參加哈佛部長級領導力項目，呃，一個九月，
四月，我在那裏待了一個星期，他們唯一談論的就是
唐納德特朗普說得對，你提到了我們正在經曆的文化大革命。如果你回顧曆史，就會想起二戰期間英國的情況。丘吉爾當時否認這一點，他不相信大英帝國正在衰落，他仍然希望英國再次偉大。這個想法很相似，但我認為戰爭真正讓他們認清了現實。當時，戰爭結束了。我聽到你在播客裏說過，2700萬俄羅斯人為這場戰爭犧牲，而人們已經忘記了。是的，他們不會承認這一點。人們已經忘記了2700萬俄羅斯人為這場戰爭犧牲的事實。這場戰爭是為了我們世界其他國家，當然，美國也參與其中，在盟軍的勝利中發揮了非常重要的作用。我們現在談論的轉變，你談到的是從單極世界到多極世界的轉變，而美國不會失去任何重要性。它會
發揮非常重要的作用，但不會像以前那樣，完全不會。現在你的問題是，那個水晶保齡球，你認為美國需要多長時間才能醒悟過來，接受這個多極世界是
真實的，而且不可能像他們以前那樣回到超級世界。二戰後的主導地位，因為你說文化大革命
很糟糕，如果它拖延很長時間，甚至會傷害到美國。是的，中國的文化大革命持續了15年，從
1964年基本上到1979年，呃，也許到
1978年，我不認為美國會在
呃，不到10年的時間裏擺脫這種局麵，因為美國正在發生的事情
唐納德·特朗普，他是正在發生的事情的症狀，他不是正在發生的事情的起因，
他之所以在那裏，部分原因是美國政治的運作方式，也許
值得一提的是，我給你一個3分鍾的美國政治理論。
嗯，美國在1787年製定了一部非常好的憲法。嗯，這在當時絕對是獨創的，是一些才華橫溢的人做的。
這有點不合時宜，現在你不會這樣做了，但這是第一部成文憲法。
嗯，他們因此獲得了許多讚譽。然而，這個體係
卻很容易受到
幾種嚴重濫用的影響。一個問題從一開始就困擾著美國，那就是種族問題。所以美國一開始是一個
極端種族主義的社會，一個可以想象到的最種族主義的社會之一，擁有大量的奴隸。
嗯，美國是世界上唯一一個需要戰爭來結束奴隸製的國家。
嗯，內戰。其他國家以和平的方式結束了奴隸製，但美國沒有。
嗯，美國需要一場殘酷的戰爭來結束奴隸製。在這方麵，它是獨一無二的。
所以美國仍然是一個非常帶有非常明顯的種族主義色彩，唐納德·特朗普的很多政策都是種族主義政策。
實際上，這就是昨天問題的一部分。當時他迎接南非總統時，說了很多廢話，他實際上展示了一些與南非無關的照片，這些照片來自剛果。
這很有趣，但我隻是想讓我們思考一下，
這意味著白宮內部的氛圍如此根深蒂固的種族主義，以至於白宮內部討論的內容
簡直是粗俗的，而這，
才是總統展示照片的唯一原因。他肯定把這些照片給很多人看過了，他們肯定
看了很開心，但種族主義如此強烈，以至於沒有人真正
看到照片下麵的印刷品，然後說：“總統先生，這不是南非。”呃，這就是剛果東部的戰爭。呃，這是一個深層次的問題，是
反移民、反阿拉伯、反穆斯林等等。呃，這是反華。呃，美國
從19世紀80年代起就存在反華種族主義，黃禍論，這在美國文明中可以追溯到很久以前，所以這是一個相當深層次的問題。
美國經曆過一些波瀾，有時克服了它，但有時因為恐懼，
神經質危機又會再次陷入其中。所以，呃，這是
呃，從……開始的因素之一。一開始是這樣，但現在正處於一波糟糕的浪潮中，我們在
19 世紀 50 年代、19 世紀 80 年代和
20 世紀 20 年代都經曆過這種情況，現在更是雪上加霜，美國正處於一個種族主義盛行的時期。
順便說一下，為什麽呢？因為人口結構的變化讓
白人群體產生了更強的防禦心態和恐慌情緒。
因為美國社會實際上比以往任何時候都更加多元化，而且在某種程度上，種族主義也比以往任何時候都少。
隻是那部分人對此感到恐懼，他們對此產生了強烈反對。
這是正在發生的事情的一部分。
另一部分是，民主很容易被腐蝕。
你知道，我們知道金錢會腐蝕人心，而美國是一個
腐敗的政治體係。上一個政治周期，2024 年，是一個 160 億美元的周期。
對於一個 30 萬億美元的經濟體來說，這並不多，我們的政府追求的是
便宜，但 160 億美元也並非微不足道，你必須是億萬富翁。玩，所以這是億萬富翁收買政府的遊戲，這就是發生的事情。
在美國，最高法院將這種行為合法化，並稱這是言論自由。
馬斯克說“我會給這個人一百萬美元，我會挑戰任何呃……反對特朗普的人，我會安排初選，他可以付錢，你知道，這是一個……
這是一個經濟腐敗，這是第二個因素。
我們的最高法院在將所有……合法化時沒有正確理解這一點。
最高法院推翻了所有競選資金的限製，理由是……
錯誤的觀念認為這是言論自由，那不是言論自由，而是合法化的……
賄賂，這是一個大問題。美國的第三個問題是……
它是一個帝國，帝國當然依靠權力行事，但從1947年起，
它就將美國的關鍵外交政策流程……保密，所以一切都是機密，隻是因為……我
親眼目睹這一切已經40多年了，就像那句老話：你怎麽知道一個政客在撒謊，就看他動動嘴巴？呃，還有，我怎麽知道美國政府在外交政策上撒謊，就看它說了什麽？
這都是沒完沒了的謊言，但這是秘密，不是真正的秘密。
每個人都知道他們在撒謊，但你無法完全證明，因為這是秘密。
這是可以否認的，所以美國在
2014年2月推翻烏克蘭政府的過程中發揮了重要作用。我知道。我碰巧在那裏。
幾天後，其中一個扮演重要角色的人當著我的麵吹噓這件事，解釋說：“我們
在邁丹給這個人，這個人，這個人捐了錢。”當我說我被攻擊為
普京的辯護者時，他們站在邁丹當麵告訴我。
但這是可以否認的，因為這是秘密。所以這是第三點
確實削弱了美國的政治結構，呃，所以這就是
為什麽不僅僅是特朗普的問題，而是更深層次的問題。40多年來，我們都沒能從根本上解決美國任何一個問題。
我們無法彌補預算赤字，無法就氣候變化進行投票，無法
在美國實現全民醫保。
十年來最大的創傷是奧巴馬醫改，你知道，當時有一場巨大的鬥爭。
但奧巴馬醫改隻占GDP的1%的一半，它吞噬了整個國家10年。
不是整個國家，而是吞噬了政治階層10年。我的觀點是：
我們現在無法解決問題，所以請大家同情一下，
耐心點，但不要糾結於此，這就是我的觀點。好的。好的，太棒了，不出所料，網上有很多問題，很多人都問了，我在這裏也看到了。
如果你能把答案寫得簡短一點，那麽我們可以報道這些，我想
我想問一下日本大使，呃，你好，shikata nori
是否想提問，好的，請用麥克風。
非常感謝薩克斯教授，作為哈佛肯尼迪學院的畢業生。
我太棒了，我有點不好意思，你知道，哈佛大學正在出台一項新的政策，
呃，我對你的演講印象深刻，呃，一個問題，呃，一直縈繞在我腦海裏，那就是，當我們審視全球政治格局時，有一種強烈的觀點認為，
威權國家正在崛起，所以
全球的民主製度可能會受到削弱，你知道，
威權國家的崛起也可能阻礙社會保障體係（SGS）的推廣。
所以我的理解是，可持續發展目標與民主或人權有著密切的關係，盡管可持續發展目標可能不會直接談論言論自由，但美國憲法和美國體製允許政府進行民主變革，所以我想知道您是否也討論了跨能源電網，當政府體製如此不同時，依賴例如從專製國家進口能源是否合理？然後我們可能會遭受能源禁運，這可能會增加……呃，你的
呃，脆弱性，所以我非常好奇，你知道你是如何將這些政治自由、民主、人權和
呃，可持續發展目標的推進聯係起來的嗎？這
在很大程度上關係到我們如何才能維護和促進基於偉大規則的
自由開放的國際秩序。非常感謝你，作為肯尼迪政府學院的教授，我為
擁有大使作為
作為肯尼迪學院的校友而感到自豪。順便說一句，我今天查了一下
美國政府昨天宣布哈佛大學不招收外國學生
這是一個令人震驚的自我毀滅行為，當然不是哈佛大學的行為，而是
政府的行為。肯尼迪學院59%的學生是外國學生，而這
是偉大大學的一大驕傲，呃，呃，這是嗯嗯
這是一件可怕的事情，我希望法院能裁定其非法，這很有可能，嗯，而且這不會生效，但這還有待觀察。我認為有很多問題，很遺憾，我無法在一分鍾內回答。所以我會花幾分鍾時間，因為我認為很重要的一點是：
沒有純粹的政府類型，
也沒有單一簡單的理想政府類型。因此，認為
我們是好的，他們是壞的，是一個非常危險的出發點。我認為這是拜登政府最大的錯誤。他說：“世界正處於
一場民主與專製的鬥爭中。”首先，如果你一開始就認為
世界正處於戰爭之中，你就是在製造一個自我實現的預言，你分裂了世界。其次，如果你
這樣做，你最終會忽略自己所有的失敗，並且
糾結於對方的局限性。
在聖經裏，我稱之為我的建議，我說的是我的
建議是耶穌基督的外交政策，呃，呃，原因是，呃，福音書中有一個著名的場景，耶穌對對方說：
你自己眼中有梁木，為什麽還要指責別人眼中有梁木？聖經裏這段話的意思是，你為什麽要
抱怨別人，改正自己的行為？所以我認為這實際上
真正地從行為、外交和尊重的角度來探討我們應該如何在這個世界上行事。無論如何，我們應該承認我們有缺點，而通過這樣說，
你幫助別人說，哦不，不，我們有缺點，而你減少威脅，就能增進相互理解。每個人都可以說：“我的天，我們一起失敗了，我們都有自己的問題。” 但實際情況是，
“你們是邪惡的，我們是善良的。”這在政府的宣傳和媒體中屢見不鮮，所以在美國媒體眼中，普京是徹頭徹尾的惡魔。在美國媒體眼中，中國是徹頭徹尾的惡魔。在我看來，與俄羅斯政府合作既危險又荒謬。與中國政府合作，這完全違背了現實。我說過，如果要我選擇哪個政府在過去40年裏最有效，我會說是中國。實際上，為什麽？因為中國讓一個國家擺脫了貧困，走向了繁榮。而且，人民的自由度也提高了，不是政治自由，而是自由度的提高。這是一個令人難以置信的成功故事，曆史上最偉大的成功之一。順便問一下，中國是怎麽做到的？他們效仿了日本的模式。日本首先在明治維新時期就這麽做了，然後在20世紀50年代，隨著經濟合作與發展組織（Eicada）的實施，中國的收入在十年內翻了一番。日本教會了東亞其他國家如何實現經濟快速增長。所以，這並非如此。敵人，也並非什麽陌生的東西。中國所取得的成就非常熟悉，看起來像韓國的成就，看起來像日本的成就，看起來像該地區許多其他國家的成就。中國隻是做到了，規模如此之大，這更令人印象深刻。所以我會將中國描述為一個非常成功的政府治理結構，它正在以相當出色的方式滿足其人民的需求。現在，中國政府將繼續發展，毫無疑問，他們一直在使用“民主”這個詞，順便說一句，這不是宣傳，而是他們對這個過程的理解。而且，一方麵，中國不會發展太多，因為中國自公元前221年秦始皇統一秦國以來，已經是一個中央集權的行政國家，已有226年了。我知道這一點，因為麗莎在七年級的時候寫過一篇關於這個的論文，那是我第一次了解這個，但是事實是，中國已經是一個中央集權的行政國家，已有2000多年的曆史，所以習近平看起來像個皇帝，這並不奇怪，這就是文化傳統，這就是文化，這是真實的。但它可能成功，也可能失敗，可能殘酷，也可能仁慈。西方曆史上最有趣的政治著作之一，實際上是亞裏士多德在2350年前寫的第一本政治學著作。他把政治與政治聯係起來，發明了政治學。實際上，他幾乎發明了西方研究的所有領域，但他在這本書中發明了政治學。他說，政府形式多種多樣，但每種形式都有好有壞。你可以是君主製，也可以是暴政，那是一人之政。你可以是貴族製或寡頭製，那是少數人之政。你可以是共和製，也可以是暴民統治，那是多數人之政。所以你不能隻看形式就說它是好是壞。中國的傳統並非空洞的傳統，而是……皇帝必須傳達混亂的倫理來統治，以倫理來統治。領導方式多麽有趣，多麽美好的傳統。西方思想中沒有這種傳統。西方思想中……有馬哈維利，但在儒家思想中……皇帝以德治國。所以我不會用同樣的方式對政府進行分類。我所相信的是，我們需要用……來相互對待。相互尊重和大量對話。我今天實際上是從Zoom會議開始的。今天我與日本國會議員和學術界人士進行了一次Zoom會議。我想那次會議是在國會大廈舉行的，我不太確定，因為是用Zoom視頻會議。但我當時說過，大使先生，我再說一遍，日本和中國
以及韓國應該加強外交，而不是被美國分裂。在這方麵[掌聲]。我指出，恕我直言，2000年來，中國從未
入侵過日本。除了1274年和1281年兩次腳注提到的，蒙古人在統治中國時曾試圖入侵日本。而神風兩次都擊敗了蒙古艦隊。但除此之外，中國從未入侵過日本，甚至從未試圖入侵過日本。不幸的是，日本曾幾次試圖入侵中國。呃，第一次。時間
顯然是1592年，當時的日宗
呃，當時的攝政王瘋了，決定
征服世界，首先是入侵朝鮮，這是入侵中國的前奏
他失敗了，正如你所知，嗯，死於
1598年，然後日本多次入侵中國
呃，從1894年開始，呃，直到二戰
有一本非常感人的書，呃，實際上是我的一位偉大的同事和
老師埃茲拉·沃格爾寫的，你一定認識他，埃茲拉·沃格爾是一位偉大的學者，研究中國和日本
他幾年前去世了，但他的最後一本書叫做《中國
和日本麵對曆史》，他說我愛這兩個國家，但它們
相處得並不好，所以我想寫兩國關係的曆史
兩國關係如下，作為兩個儒家
文明
它們兩千年來幾乎一直處於和平狀態，想想英國和法國，他們幾乎兩千年來一直在交戰，幾乎每年都在交戰，
有時甚至幾百年。但中國和日本都知道，僧侶會來，他們會
帶回書法，他們會做各種各樣的事情，但除了我剛才舉的例子之外，他們並沒有交戰。
從1368年到
1839年，中日之間沒有發生過戰爭，也就是從明朝初年到第一次鴉片戰爭中英國人抵達珠江。
除了日向先生，沒有發生過戰爭。
呃，在短暫的逃亡中發瘋，除此之外沒有戰爭。有時它被稱為
儒家和平，因為它有一個體係，但它基本上是一個
和平的貿易體係，一些象征性的朝貢，但完全和平。
然後英國來了，然後是
戰爭，然後是日本令人震驚的經濟發展。從1868年開始的萬曆維新開始，日本在1871年做了一件非常輝煌的事情。它派遣了一個由重要大臣組成的代表團，
因為當時無法使用變焦鏡頭，所以他們在世界各地待了18個月，被稱為“伊良浦使團”。
他們研究誰在所有方麵做得最好，然後回來和平地實施所有這些，
誰建立了最好的中央銀行，誰擁有憲法，誰擁有最好的大學，誰擁有各自最好的軍隊等等。他們吸收了所有模式，並顯著地運用它們，隻有一場小小的叛亂，那就是1877年的薩摩叛亂。除了那場和平之外，這是最成功的
轉型，日本實現了工業化。但我關於工業化的觀點是，
日本在1894年進攻中國，
中日兩國兩位重要的外交官
相遇了，埃茲拉·沃格爾在書中講述了這個故事，中國外交官
沮喪地說：“你們為什麽要進攻我們？”我們是亞洲人，我們正在被歐洲人入侵。
你們為什麽要攻擊我們？日本外交官說：“對不起，但是
我們已經加入了他們的俱樂部。” 這句話就是字麵意思。呃，你知道，日本實現了工業化，所以它曾一度加入帝國俱樂部。
現在是2025年，是時候讓日本和中國
說“我們在這個問題上是一致的，我們不需要美國的軍事基地，我們
不需要，我們不需要被外來者分裂。
沒有理由說中國不會入侵日本，中國沒有理由不威脅日本。”這段時間根本沒有威脅，我的觀點隻是給大家一個小秘密。
如果你們團結起來，你們絕對能主宰世界經濟。
如果把日本的實力、韓國的實力、中國的實力和東盟的實力加在一起，天哪，沒人能比得上。
或許能競爭，但對我們其他人來說會有點糟糕，但是呃。
但說真的，你們為什麽還要分裂呢？所以在我看來，這才是真正的。呃，這是真正的建議，而檢驗這一點的關鍵在於外交。
外交意味著對話。我希望日本外長。
對王毅說，你真強大，你比我們強大10倍。
我們如何才能安全？我想聽聽王毅的回答，因為那將是一個
非常好的問題。我希望歐洲人去找普京先生，
說：“看，我們感到危險，你怎麽能讓我們感到危險？”你們最好不要在烏克蘭之後入侵其他國家？“我很想聽聽你的答案，因為這是一個合理的問題。順便說一句，我並不擔心這個問題，理由有很多。但這是一個合理的問題。站在一旁說“你是敵人，我們要建立軍隊，我們要這樣做”是不對的。甚至不用嚐試外交手段，外交需要一張桌子和兩把椅子，而軍事每年需要一萬億美元，你認為哪個方案更好？
謝謝。我隻是想針對大使的問題提出兩點。首先，中國在很短的時間內，
幫助8億人擺脫了貧困，這是人類曆史上最大的一次扶貧。
事實上，如果你認真審視一下
西方完全誤解的政府體製，大多數西方人會認為中國的政府模式
高度獨裁。但如果你認真思考一下，你會發現
政府人員爬上高層的方式是企業界的傑夫。你看看津平，他
從底層爬上來，擁有非凡的組織能力，而不是
空降到頂層，你知道，他是在企業模式中一路爬上去的。
試想一下，如果全世界的企業界都選舉
首席執行官和董事長，每五年選舉一次。通過普選，我們無法自動獲得國家，作為所有者和創始人，但如果你輸了選舉，你就輸了。我認為，如果你把所有使用這種選舉人票模式的公司都算進去，你會發現大多數公司都破產了。但我們要問自己的問題是，為什麽在企業界，這個係統如此穩固和強大？為什麽在政治領域，在管理政府時，我們不使用這個係統？你必須問一些根本性的問題。所以對我來說，中國模式很大程度上是一種企業模式。想想看，奧巴馬當總統的時候，他管理的最大的機構是參議院，他隻有50個人，所以他隻有50個人。他從來沒有管理過大型組織的經驗。但在他支持之前的簽名者擁有卓越的組織能力，才能讓這一切順利進行。我隻是邁出了第一步，我隻想……我想補充一點關於哈佛大學外國學生的事情，呃，1985年我收獲了最好的一批學生。我曾經有過
之前或之後三位來自日本的學生，其中一位
成為了財務省副部長兼全球環境基金負責人，呃
第一位女性是財務省副部長，呃，石山直子，她現在是
東京大學的教授；第二位成為了一位偉大的教授和工業大臣，呃，高中羽造，呃，以及一位偉大的
受人尊敬的經濟學家；第三位成為了日本皇後，所以這很有趣，哇
好的，接下來我不會居功，我隻是很享受。下一個問題
在我的名單上，有一位是律師事務所合夥人維維·法澤拉娜，她現在在人群中嗎？
是的，就在那裏，是的。
好的，好的，請您站起來，這樣我們
可以看看您的臉，謝謝，抱歉。
嗯，我叫維維，我是Jalan Nang的一家律師事務所的合夥人，我認識阿梅諾，我
一直是傑弗裏教授的忠實粉絲，當我看到您和約翰的視頻時在峰會上，我完全沒有遇到任何對手，這對我來說意義非凡。我的問題是，基於我們迄今為止的觀察，東盟經常發現自己
在中美之間徘徊。那麽，我的問題是，戰略中立
仍然是一個可行的長期姿態，還是東盟應該在中美之間確立更明確的立場？
謝謝。非常感謝。
非常感謝您。我認為，東盟國家當然應該尋求與世界各地建立良好關係，所以這個想法不應該是聯盟。這個想法應該是，東盟是一個非常開放的貿易地區，如果美國仍然希望與歐洲和中國進行貿易，那麽東盟就應該與美國進行貿易。
同時，還有兩個重要的考慮因素：
美國不應該試圖讓東盟做出選擇，這不僅不公平，而且如果東盟被迫做出選擇，
這不僅不公平，而且如果東盟被迫做出選擇，
那麽選擇的話，你當然會選擇你的鄰居中國，因為東盟離不開與中國良好的經濟關係，這簡直不可想象，所以美國不應該強迫或試圖強迫東盟做出選擇。如果美國試圖實施二級製裁，阻礙東盟與中國的經濟關係，那麽實際上我們必須抵製這種做法，因為鄰國需要貿易，需要擁有共同的基礎設施，需要擁有交通光纖、河流管理等等。所以，我想說的是，目標當然應該是對所有人開放，應該給所有人提供好的建議，保持冷靜，不要卷入衝突。我們不想卷入你們的衝突，根本就沒有理由發生衝突。我稍後會再談這個問題。嗯，不要讓我們做出選擇。同時，東盟應該與中國在基礎設施和互聯互通方麵密切合作。這是一個鄰國，“一帶一路”倡議是一個非常……重要的積極舉措
它說要建設高鐵、可再生能源、數字係統，這對每個人都有好處，所以我會這樣處理這個問題。
我總體上確實認為，雖然聽起來有點天真，但總的來說，我認為應該取消外國軍事基地。
所以隨著時間的推移，我確實認為美國
應該離開，反正我們也負擔不起。
特朗普總統說：“好吧，日本和韓國應該為我們的服務付費。”
我的觀點是，日本和韓國應該說：“非常感謝，我們不需要
付費，呃，但如果你想離開，那也沒關係，因為我們會坐在一起，
坐等兩把椅子。”嗯，嗯，嗯，在我看來，這才是
嗯，正確的處理方式。
我有很多非常好的問題，但我發現其中一個特別令人興奮，因為它
與您可能會給我們總理的建議有關，所以這個，丹尼爾
拉曼，哦，抱歉，這有點像主持人的特權，抱歉，如果可以的話，我想，嗯，這可能是一個有點爭議的問題。
嗯，這是關於采取矛盾立場的問題。嗯，馬來西亞總理最近似乎采取了
矛盾的立場，譴責俄羅斯22年的入侵，但去年卻兩次訪問聖彼得堡。他敦促將緬甸從東盟中分離出來，但最近會見了本田領導人，譴責加沙種族滅絕，但仍然與武器供應國進行貿易，吹捧磚塊。
同時肯定聯合國和世貿組織，現在有些專欄文章將此稱為
機會主義，而另一些人則認為這是政治家風範正在提升，超越你如何……呃，教授，你如何解讀這些明顯的矛盾？你認為阿諾阿總理需要做些什麽才能使他的東盟主席任期取得成功？嗯，在我看來，他聽起來像個政治家，而且是一位傑出的政治家，呃，他才華橫溢，嗯，而且，呃，而且，他是一位非常優秀的馬來西亞和東盟領導人，所以我非常樂觀，呃，看，所有這些，呃，都需要一些微妙之處，但我會告訴你我的看法，呃，戰爭需要結束，這是……在烏克蘭問題上，如果你回顧曆史，呃，正如……我曾多次說過，如果美國能夠忍耐，如果它沒有推動北約擴張，呃，如果它沒有在2014年發動政變，呃，如果它遵守了……明斯克二號協議，聯合國安理會……如果拜登像我在2021年12月敦促白宮那樣與普京進行談判，那麽烏克蘭和俄羅斯在2022年4月即將實現和平，但美國卻停止了談判。所以，實際的重點實際上是結束戰爭。唐納德·特朗普正在努力做到這一點，我認為包括阿努爾·易卜拉欣總理在內的所有人，都希望通過外交手段結束戰爭。外交是關鍵。談到中東問題，我認為有一件顯而易見的事情需要做。當然，我認為這是一個泥潭，這場戰爭已經持續了一百多年。我的同事拉希德·哈萊迪，一位很棒的同事，哥倫比亞大學的巴勒斯坦教授，最近寫了一本書，名為《以色列對巴勒斯坦的百年戰爭》。我想這就是書名，或者說，差不多就是這個書名。基本上就是這樣。他回顧了這樣一個事實：現在的情況已經持續了一百多年。實際上，美國需要停止否決巴勒斯坦成為聯合國第194個成員國，巴勒斯坦可以在一小時內成為一個國家，其邊界將位於1967年6月4日公認的邊界上。如果這一切真的發生，那麽所有好事都會隨之而來。阿拉伯聯盟和伊斯蘭合作組織20多年來一直反複強調，隻有兩國方案得以實施，我們才能與以色列實現關係正常化。以色列聲稱沒有和平的可能性，這是一個謊言。他們撒謊是因為…他們不想要兩個國家，他們想要一個以色列，
主宰一切，所以他們編造謊言試圖證明這一點，這就是本質。
這到底是怎麽回事？其他矛盾是什麽？是的，總的來說，我不會
把一些國家踢出東盟，我會努力讓鄰國和睦相處。呃，你無法
改變你的鄰居。我試圖告訴烏克蘭，他們可以為所欲為。
但俄羅斯仍將是他們的鄰居，所以你最好和你的鄰居和睦相處。順便說一句，如果你的
鄰居有點煩躁，呃，有點，你覺得有點
危險。如果我是你，我不會去挑釁鄰居，戲弄鄰居，
對鄰居大喊大叫，放火燒他的垃圾桶，或者做其他類似的事情。
我會盡量善待鄰居，這是我的做法。所以總的來說，
我會嚐試在鄰裏之間找到解決方案，而不是采取行動
把一些國家踢出去。我會嚐試找到解決方案。
我選擇另一個問題，因為這是他們給出的建議。向傑夫·西迪克（Jeff Sidik）尋求政治家的建議，我們請教了幾位政客。
前排和後排都有一些政客。所以問題來自匯豐銀行的達圖·奧馬爾·西迪克（Datu Omar Sidik）。
順便說一下，這位是首席執行官。
薩克斯教授，非常榮幸，非常感謝。嗯，我想談談您早期在玻利維亞和波蘭的一些工作。
例如，您曾建議政府做出非常艱難的決定，
以對抗既得利益，並進行真正的市場改革。
這些改革在經濟增長和應對通貨膨脹方麵取得了良好的成果。
在當今世界，我們生活在一個物質富足的世界，但在阿富汗，尤其是在馬來西亞，仍然存在著嚴重的社會不平等。
在教育和醫療保健方麵，社會不平等現象嚴重。
您認為需要什麽才能激勵大企業政府，
使其能夠以公平的方式分配資源？獲得教育、公平獲得醫療保健的機會，以及讓他們能夠在環境問題上做出正確的決定。馬來西亞具體能做些什麽？謝謝，謝謝，非常感謝。讓我說一下。關於我早期在玻利維亞提出的建議，我有兩點看法。玻利維亞在2020年中期，也就是1984年中期到1985年期間，經曆了24000%的惡性通貨膨脹。當時我被要求幫助波蘭。波蘭當時正麵臨共產主義時期末期的戲劇性事件和嚴重的經濟危機。首先，當發生嚴重的經濟危機時，你可能需要非常果斷的措施，而且這些措施需要妥善執行。所以我建議采取非常果斷的措施。其次，我當時還很年輕。我不知道我現在是否有勇氣去做這件事，因為在某種程度上，這是年輕人的舉動。但是他們謝天謝地，這招管用，不然我
也不會坐在這裏了，呃，至少那兩個辦法管用，但大多數時候
你不會麵臨那樣的危機，惡性通貨膨脹是一種非常罕見的現象，
這些基本上是國家崩潰的特殊時刻，當
國家崩潰時，你必須采取行動來拯救國家，
而且，這就是我提出的建議的本質。
你提到的那些問題，
在性質上非常不同，它們是長期的
呃，社會問題。既然我們在一所
教育機構，而且是一所優秀的機構，
那麽讓我簡單談談教育，
說實話，呃，不是
呃，隻是一種華麗的辭藻或道德宣言，
事實上，
一個社會投資的最高經濟回報率是
教育。這聽起來可能令人驚訝，但從經濟角度來看，
財政部長應該特別關注教育投資。
當然，問題是，教育投資有點長期，你知道，盡管
技術進步如此之快，它仍然需要一個孩子從5歲到25歲需要20年的時間，而機器人大約隻需要3個小時就能完成。順便說一下，我們所有的機器人主要來自中國。未來10年，人們大約30分鍾就能拿到博士學位。如果你想要不同的博士學位，那30分鍾也不同。所以，你會擁有一個會走路、會說話的……生物化學、天文學……物理學……經濟學、金融學等等的博士，而且機器人還會洗碗。所以，這是我們即將經曆的改變。但對我們人類來說，接受教育真的很棒，這是人生中最棒的禮物。教育是我們父母給予我們最棒的禮物，除了他們給予的愛和我們的生存之外，教育也是最重要的，因為教育是最重要的賦能，尤其是在這個複雜的世界裏。否則你無法理解這一切。呃，如果……呃，今天你無法做到這一點
在世界上的任何地方至少完成中學教育，並且擁有高質量的中學教育，但這基本上
不足以建立人們想要的社會，然而在非洲南部
今天隻有30%的孩子完成了中學教育，而且沒有達到
高質量的水平，所以他們沒有他們甚至沒有學到他們應該學到的東西，那30%，所以事實上，
我計算過，投資教育的社會回報率是
20% 的複合年回報率，甚至
更高一點，你無法超越，呃，這比大型科技公司要好，
比你要投資的任何其他東西都要好，所以財政部長和
各級教育部長應該真正合作，讓這個模式發揮作用，
如果你看看這個地區，誰是世界上教育水平最高的國家，
根據15歲學生的標準化考試，呃，呃，國際學生成就項目，
經合組織的，所有這些國家都是東亞國家，123456，
順便說一下，除了新加坡，
而不是東盟國家，新加坡位居榜首，
這很重要，越南做得非常好，呃，遠遠領先於其收入水平，
中國沒有做到全國，但
丹增，上海和北京絕對位居榜首，香港、台灣、新加坡、韓國和日本都位居榜首。
一流的教育，我們應該從中學習。教育領域確實發生了一些非常好的事情。
教育，也深深地融入了文化，父母在推動著孩子們。
孩子們最好表現出色。這也是一件非常了不起的事情。
非常美妙的事情。所以在我看來，毫無疑問，這是一項公共投資。
投資應該成為優先事項。當然，一旦你實現了
普及教育，不僅要普及高中教育，還要普及相當一部分大學教育。
然後是科技投資。
這是日本從尖端技術國家邁出的輝煌一步，
使其成為一個偉大的創新者。而中國也出色地掌握了這一步。
在過去的15年裏，你看看現在的研究排名，中國在很多領域都領先於美國。
就發表的重要論文數量而言，這需要大量的公共投資，所以政府應該投資於此。順便說一下，醫療保健既是核心的福祉維度，我們想要活下去，想要健康，嗯，技術讓我們能夠更成功地做到這一點。嗯，實際上，這是一方麵，但另一方麵，健康也是一種投資。不健康的孩子就無法學習，嗯，健康狀況不佳，嗯，營養不良，實際上會導致終身殘疾和營養不良。所以，這些在國民收入賬戶中是非常實際的考慮，但它們完全被錯誤地理解了，因為它們被稱為消費支出。如果它們被稱為投資支出，那簡直是荒謬至極。我們至少應該知道，這些是對未來的投資，但國民收入賬戶在20世紀30年代編製時，將它們列為消費支出，而且這個問題從那以後就再也沒有得到解決。所以，關鍵在於，這不應該是一個難題。這不需要緊急情況，也不需要你，嗯，偉大的英雄主義才能做到。這應該是。馬來西亞要實現其目前想要實現的目標，其核心理念在於在科學技術前沿領域取得重大突破，而這是一個投資過程。我來看一下相關的問題，其中一個來自D Mahinda Singh，他曾擔任教育??部顧問，你看人群中……他在嗎？如果不在，我來讀一下問題。好的，好的。從你的角度來看，Jeff，在基礎教育和高等教育層麵，優質教育體係的當前和未來指標是什麽？這個問題問得非常好。我的答案分為兩部分：一部分是核心技能，了解我們的世界，科學技術，教育，數學，STEM技能，所以首先要掌握基本技能，這是基礎，也是PISA衡量的標準。所以，順便提一下，看看PISA的分數，比如一些國家，當它們的PISA分數排名高時，它們會說測試很糟糕。這很武斷。我的建議是認真對待測試。嗯，最好進行基準測試。嗯，了解你的水平，以及你能從這種係統全麵的測量方法中學到什麽。順便說一下，負責經合組織測試的安德裏亞·施萊克是一位非常優秀的教育家，非常認真，他出色地完成了這項測試，使測試變得有意義。但教育的第二部分是在可持續發展目標下。可持續發展目標4是全民優質教育，可持續發展目標4.7是一個很棒的目標，你可以在網上查到。它關於學習在我們的世界中生活，學習和平文化。學習尊重其他文明，學習可持續發展。了解我們世界上正在發生的事情，尊重世界各地的社會。以及在和平文化中共同生活在這個星球上的理念。這被完美地表達為一個目標，它是潘基文最喜歡的目標之一。嗯，當他…秘書長稱之為
全球公民，即學習成為全球公民的技能，這
也極其重要，因為這是我們的現實世界，我們知道這有多麽艱難。
當孩子們在仇恨的環境中長大時，這種情況在世界各地都有發生。他們的教育體係告訴他們，其他國家是永久的敵人，或者其他文明是永久的敵人。這就是造成當今世界如此多傷害的原因。
所以，我們希望我們的孩子長大後也能成為
好人，這意味著要接受道德教育，這意味著要接受
尊重他人的教育，這是道德教育的根本。
下一個問題有點出人意料，與教皇有關。這是來自雙威集團副主席兼總裁D·A·阿納的。
他來了嗎？
A·阿納，請給他麥克風道歉。
我們很榮幸
能來到這裏。呃，問題是，選擇一位美國人擔任教皇是否會
為我們生活的世界提供某種平衡？如果
是的話，會以什麽方式實現？是的。這是一個很好的問題，答案是肯定的。嗯，美國人確實對這位來自芝加哥南部的教皇感到非常興奮，他們對此非常關注。
這是一件很棒的事情，因為從我們對利奧十四世教皇的了解來看，他將會是一位非常出色的教皇。
他的背景非常獨特，加勒比海背景，嗯，
嗯，他的父母來自新奧爾良，他出生在芝加哥，嗯，他的大部分牧靈工作都在秘魯，嗯，他受過良好的基督教或天主教社會思想的熏陶，我非常欽佩托馬斯·阿奎那。托馬斯·阿奎那是一位……嗯，托馬斯·阿奎那曾是巴黎大學的教授，嗯，在12世紀到1274年間，嗯，嗯他是一位
傑出的哲學家和
神學家，他汲取了亞裏士多德的哲學，從基督教的角度來看，亞裏士多德的哲學是一種異教哲學，因為它
是前基督教的。他將亞裏士多德的哲學與基督教神學相結合，
並進行了偉大的綜合，有時這被稱為信仰與理性的綜合。教皇利奧一世十四世也受過這種傳統的熏陶，他實際上就讀於聖托馬斯·阿奎那大學。他之所以選擇利奧一世十四世這個名字，是因為
前任利奧一世是利奧一世十三世，他是
19世紀末的教皇。利奧一世十三世是一位傑出的教皇，他
從1891年開始頒布了一係列教皇教義或通諭，被稱為教會的現代社會教義。1891年，第一篇通諭用拉丁文寫成，名為《新約》（raram novarum）。呃，這意味著新事物，教皇說，在工業時代，“我們需要教會跟上現代的步伐”。這奠定了130年來教皇談論時事的傳統，利奧一世教皇於14世以此命名。我認為，為了傳承這一傳統，他的前任教皇方濟各也發表了精彩的通諭。我非常了解他，也非常敬愛他。2015年，他發表了一篇關於氣候變化的精彩通諭，名為《拉托海》。令人驚訝的是，天主教會召集了氣候科學家，舉行了多次會議，幫助教皇掌握關於實際氣候科學的前沿知識。所以，這不僅僅是一次神學反思或周日布道，它基於最前沿的科學知識。2019年，教皇方濟各又發表了一篇通諭，名為《兄弟同在》，內容是關於外交的。這封通諭的由來，是一位天主教聖徒聖方濟各的真實故事，方濟各教皇的名字也由此而來。艾茲的方濟各
他於1219年從意大利前往
埃及，會見了穆斯林蘇丹基姆勒·馬利克。
在第五次十字軍東征的戰場上，他試圖勸服蘇丹皈依伊斯蘭教，但他沒有
成功，但他們進行了一次精彩的會麵，他們徹夜討論了宗教問題。出於感激，蘇丹沒有殺死聖方濟各，他
帶領他和平地離開了戰場，回到了基督教陣營。
這次會麵恰好在700年後，不好意思，是800年後，被教皇方濟各提及，他把這本天主教通諭獻給了開羅阿拉哈爾大學的祖母，因為他
說，這就是我們的世界，基督徒和穆斯林和平地相遇，
所以我提到這一切，是因為這個這是
教皇利奧十四世將遵循的傳統，這非常令人期待。我想今天的內容就到這裏，我知道今天是一場非常非常
有趣的會議，我覺得你甚至能聽到針掉在地上的聲音，這幾乎比Netflix更好。我想我們都同意，傑弗裏·薩克斯教授是一位開明的文藝複興者，我們今天聽到的是一位真正的
大師，一位真正的大師，他對人類曆史的觀察。他認為，我們必須從廣闊的視野來看待曆史，而不是
短周期的視角。如果你仔細觀察通過研究經濟學和曆史，我們變得更加明智，因為我們聽到過很多關於各種主題的智慧，今天聽到了很多智慧，可能也是我在播客中聽到過的最好的，我們承諾過，我們會把其中很多內容放到網上，這樣更多的人就能從我們今天獲得的智慧中受益，這就是我們承諾過的，非常感謝，再次給傑夫·薩克斯最好的馬來西亞掌聲，謝謝你，太棒了，謝謝，非常感謝特裏博士，女士們先生們，在我們結束之前，請各位就座，因為我們隻剩下一個非常簡短的結束語了，主持人特裏博士，傑法爵士，嗯，你知道，作為最後的總結，先生，現在輪到你了，非常感謝伊德裏斯和薩克斯教授。是的，當然，正如你所知，idris 是我們 sam parad 的聯合主席，sax 教授當然是 jeffrey cha，sam 大學的榮譽教授。是的，我真的很驚訝你
能記住所有的事件和日期，而我甚至不記得我的生日日期了。[笑聲]
我相信你一定覺得 sex 教授的見解很有價值，也很有影響力，這正是我們為通過 sam 大學與 jeff 合作而感到自豪的原因。我們麵臨的挑戰是巨大的，而且非常艱巨。在這種情況下，我堅信，世界隻有在團結一致的情況下才能運轉得最好。女士們，先生們，從很小的時候起，我就堅信每個人都必須有更高的人生目標。對我來說，更高的使命是致力於以有意義和影響力的方式回饋社會，並通過優質教育和知識共享來建設國家，我作為一名企業家的成功讓我
得以創立傑弗裏·查基金會 (Jeffrey Cha Foundation)，以實現我的慈善目標。
迄今為止，該基金會是馬來西亞同類基金會中規模最大的，致力於推動教育發展，已頒發近9億林吉特的獎學金。我相信，到明年，我們的獎學金總額將超過10億林吉特。換句話說，我活得越久，我捐贈的就越多。正如大家所知，到本世紀末，Sunwave 將擁有超過10家醫院，我們將有超過1000名醫生照顧我，所以我應該能夠實現我的願望。基金會當然已經向聯合國可持續發展解決方案網絡 (SDSN) 捐贈了2000萬美元，以幫助該組織履行其在全球推進可持續發展議程的使命。我們對聯合國可持續發展解決方案網絡 (SDSN) 的支持源於其名稱——聯合國可持續發展解決方案網絡，其關鍵詞是“解決方案”。今天薩克斯教授在休斯頓大學的演講，也是我們使命的另一個典型例子，即為馬來西亞和更廣泛的亞洲地區帶來尖端研究和世界一流的專業知識，以開展我們正在開展的工作。我希望雙威基金會和傑弗裏·查基金會能夠激勵本地區更多組織致力於可持續發展議程，這與我的個人座右銘非常一致，那就是在我去世之前，我渴望激勵他人。傑弗裏，正如我之前提到的，我們非常感謝您與我們共度時光，即使您為了人類的更大利益而周遊世界，我真的很擔心您和您家人的安全。我謹代表在座的各位，真誠地祝願您健康長壽，感謝您為世界所做的一切工作。請保重，照顧好自己，願上帝保佑您。再次感謝各位女士們先生們，非常感謝國家主席先生，感謝您強有力的鼓舞人心的信息。女士們先生們，我代表組織者感謝你們今天的到來。嗯，我當然會邀請所有嘉賓來參加社交活動，並為媒體成員提供茶點。請到我們大廳前麵來，現在請和我一起起立，為斯裏·賈拉博士、傑弗裏·薩克斯教授和坦特裏·薩克斯鼓掌。

Jeffrey Sachs Reveals How China Becomes a Successful Country

Rise of Asia  2025年6月9日 

In this powerful talk, Professor Jeffrey Sachs breaks down the common myths about democracy versus authoritarianism and explains why the real measure of a government isn’t its label — but how well it serves its people. He takes a deep dive into China’s rise and reveals the key reasons behind its remarkable success on the global stage. Whether you agree or not, this perspective will definitely make you think twice about how we judge different political systems.

good afternoon ladies and gentlemen minister of housing and local government of malaysia juan michelle mei member of the slango state legislative assembly for subangaya yang bahaga tansri s dr jeffrey chia founder chancellor sunway university and founder and chairman of sunway group professor jeffrey saxs our sir jeffrey chia honorary distinguished professor at sunway university and president of the united nations
sustainable development solutions network un sdsn yangar bahaga professor dutri dr
idris jala pro-chancellor of sunway university bahaga professor da dr elizabeth lee group ceo of sunway education professor sibbrandes poppa president of sunway university distinguished guest members of the diplomatic community colleagues members of the media friends and to everyone joining us this afternoon thank you for being here my name is daniel rahman i'm the chief executive officer of the asian strategy and leadership institute or asn and is and it is my pleasure to convene today's dialogue distinguished guests ladies and gentlemen today's dialogue with professor jeffrey saxs titled asean in
the midst of shifting global order is led by sunway university together with
the jeffrey sax center on sustainable development and all of which are owned
and governed by the jeffrey cha foundation sunway university established in 2011 is proud to be ranked the number one non-government linked private university in asean and recently rose to 141 in the times higher education asia university rankings 2025 its highest position yet most importantly as a not-for-profit research intensive university sunway university is deeply committed to impactful research and sustainabilitydriven innovation supported by worldclass partners and its unique location in sunway city koala lumpur which is malaysia's model smart sustainable and green township and as malaysia chairs asean this year and is what has brought all of us here together and the asean summit coming up next week or coming up very soon and of course may traffic be kind to all of us we believe it is vital to hear from global thought leaders like professor saxs whose voice has shaped international development discourse for decades it's a true privilege and honor to have him here today ladies and gentlemen and now oh yeah you
can give him a round of applause of course very kind of all of you and now to get things going it is my great honor to invite today's host a visionary leader whose commitment to sustainable development and education has garnered global recognition he's the founder and chancellor of sunu university and founder chairman sani group with that i invite tantri duter dr jeffrey chia to deliver his welcoming remarks country the applause here
excellencies and distinguished guests ladies and gentlemen sorry that i have to use this room because i know with jeffree sex professor jeffrey sax here the response will be overwhelming but unfortunately our boardroom is booked our convention gender is also booked by others i can't do much but we have to do it here so i think uh you bear with us a very good afternoon and welcome to san city kolo lumpo it give me great pleasure to play host to the special dialogue on prof with professor jeffrey sax titled asan amidst the shifting global order professor sax is chairman of the jeffrey sax center on sustainable development at sunway university as well as the jeffrey chia honorary professor at sunway university he is of course a tireless campaigner for the sustainability agenda in his role as president of the united nation sustainable development solutions network or unsdsn he has served as a special advisor to three un secretaries general including the incumbent antonio gutaris and professor saxs is here in
malaysia to participate in the asian summit next week and we are pleased to have this opportunity to host him today to tap into his insight on global events and issues i regard it a great honor jeff and privilege to consider him and his family longstanding
friends sonia is not the wife sonia is not with us this time but around but his
daughter professor lisa sex is here where is lisa hi lisa hi and professor lisa saxs is a distinguished expert in her own right and currently director of the colombia center on sustainable investment my friend jeffrey welcome home each time you return you enrich all of us with your great wisdom insights and perspective and we are grateful for the time you share with us i will also like to welcome our honorable minister minister of housing and local government young brahman to this dialogue and of course we also have our sububang jaya atun young brahman here with us today we welcome also your excellencies ambassadors of japan high commissioner of australia as well as representatives from the embassy of russia brazil azer ban is that the name great as well as the high commission of the uk pakistan sri lanka and nigeria many extreme corporate leaders and bankers are also here welcome in fact we have such an overwhelming respond that we could not accommodate all like i said who have signed up and had to open a few satellite rooms next door for this dialogue and we could not hold this event in the grand ballroom like i said and the convention center with larger capacity as they have been fully booked ladies and gentlemen we are living in turbulent times to say the least in addition to climate change and wars in europe and the middle east we are now in an era where geopolitical tensions are perhaps at their highest level since the end of the cold war and the 17 united nations sustainable development goals and the paris climate agreement were supposed to
put us back on the right track but recent reports on both fronts indicate we are way off the track now in other words we are failing our children and our future generations yes it is very serious many people are very worried and i'm told by some of our professors that many climate scientists are suffering from despair and depression jeff in dedicating your career to the advancement of sustainable development and world peace to justice and fairness to wiping out the curse of poverty and hunger you have made some powerful enemies even as you fearlessly continue to pursue these noble causes i just i trust
you are taking every precaution to ensure the safety and well-being of yourself and your
family this predicament is a reflection of the strange times that we live in while we greatly appreciate your work we care for your safety j as you ladies and gentlemen the ashan submit chair by malaysia begins next week it is hardening to note that the agenda laid out by the our prime minister dad sri amay ibrahim is built around a vision of shared progress guided by the theme of inclusivity and sustainability the asia headquarters of the un sdsn based here at sunway university and one of the only three such centers in the world is fully committed to playing its part in advancing this objectives and of course the other two of two centers are in new york and paris and together with professor s we will also be convening a high level strategic session on asean's integrated energy and digital future this sunday on the eve of the assean semit at sunway university our un sdsn asia team here has put together a program comprising senior officials in the public and private sectors across assean to unlock the immense potential of the assean power grid and an integrated digital economy i invite all of you to join us then ladies and gentlemen our share aspiration in asean for a more inclusive prosperous and sustainable future is a source of hope and posit positivity in these times of turmoil and turbulence and like all of you here today i very much look forward to hearing the views and insights that professor saxs has to offer as we navigate through the challenges that are confronting us today without further ado jeff i hand the mic to you thank you well [Applause] maybe i'll stand here if it's okay y good afternoon tanrey thank you so much it is like being at home uh it is home in fact and both lisa and i are thrilled to be here i'm thrilled that i'm on stage and lisa is in the audience because usually when i go someplace now they say "oh you're lisa sax's father." uh so she has to look at me this time rather than the other way around but she's a professor at columbia university teaching climate finance which is very relevant for our discussion and for the challenges of the next uh the next days at this very important acsean china gcc summit the summit itself is uh a sign of the times it brings together uh the great expanse of asia uh china asean and western asia uh and this is the dynamic rim of the world economy today and so this upcoming summit is a very promising opportunity and a great tribute to malaysia also as president of acsean i'm sure that it's going to be a spectacular success in the coming week and also the malaysian presidency of asean is going to be a spectacular success there's a lot to do and i'm convinced that asean's going to do it
my main theme actually is that with all of the turmoil and no doubt serious risks there
are true reasons not only rhetorical but true reasons to be optimistic uh the
world is disrupted and changing rapidly and it is changing in frightening ways
in in uh on the surface but i want to argue that below the surface the deeper
trends are positive uh and not only positive uh powerful as well so the
notion of sustainable development which sunway university champions and you see
it in the signs everywhere of the sustainable development goals that is the right track and while there is a lot of work to do it is the path that i believe the world is going to achieve it needs to achieve it it can achieve it and that combination of both need and capacity to my mind uh suggests that we are going to find our way forward the theme today is the disruption uh the shift in global order and of course we do feel every day how fast the times are changing and therefore how unpredictable events seem day to day and there are fundamental reasons for this dramatic feeling uh this great uncertainty dayto-day uh of course the world economy is changing dramatically uh i wouldn't say before our eyes every day but year to year and decade to decade there is profound transformation underway at the core is something quite important and that is that asia has ended a long period of domination by europe and by the united states of the world economy uh and asia has restored its place as the center of gravity of the world economy the place that asia
has had for most of the last 2,000 years actually with the interruption of the period of the industrial revolution which came first to europe was the engine if i could put it that way of european imperialism and roughly 250 years of european dominance and that period is ending and in fact it is that rapid catching up of asia and the geopolitical changes that are caused by that rapid catching up that give the sense of the profound disruption and uncertainty of our time but because the underlying reason for this change is the rapid development of this part of the world northeast asia southeast asia western asia the countries that we'll be meeting in the coming week even though this change is very disruptive it is not a cause of panic but rather when one steps back a cause
for optimism m because what has happened is that a world that was profoundly
divided by power and technology is now truly a multipolar world in which the
united states and europe no doubt remain very sophisticated societies very
powerful societies but no longer dominant societies of the world we've
entered the age truly of multipolarity that's a big challenge but it's also a wonderful fact and great opportunity a world dominated by europe and then after europe by the united states in the second half of the 20th century was not the kind of world that we wanted a world in which one small part of the world had predominance in technology in military power in wealth in finance over the rest of the world we have wanted a world in which these benefits of technology are widely shared and we have it now so this is the first point that i would make the fundamental economic fact of our time is what economists call conditional convergence and that is the ability of countries for whatever historical reason that are technologically and economically behind others whether it's in income or in the roll out of infrastructure and technology have the chance to catch up
or to leapfrog those that were in the lead because when they build the new
infrastructure believe me that's leaprogging if you want a reminder of that fly into an airport in the united states and you'll be uh you'll remember uh that this region of the world is truly leaprogging uh and developing uh an infrastructure that is more modern
more 21st century uh than you'll find in uh some of the so-called advanced economies of the world now this economic change is undoubtedly creating geopolitical tensions that are very dangerous in the short term and i will come back to those in a moment but i want to say that we have other drivers of fundamental change as well as the economic convergence and i should mention that i use the phrase conditional convergence which means that
catching up or leaprogging is not automatic in any sense it's only a potentiality of an economy or of a region it's possible to mess up in this world if governance is bad if economic strategies are bad if uh the public sector does not perform alongside the private sector then that potentiality is not achieved but the chance to grow faster the ability to grow very rapidly is the fact of our time right now and the reality of our time is that almost all of asia is taking advantage of that and has been in recent decades we have of course had 40 years of remarkable growth of the people's republic of china we have rapid growth throughout most though not all of asean we now have india growing at 6 to 7% per year the fastest growth rate in fact of a major economy in the world that's a major change as well underway and we see that kind of rapid economic development in other parts of asia i'll indicate in just a few minutes that i think the same will happen in africa which is by far the most laggered region of the world economy for many reasons of history and physical geography but this will be an age in the next 40 years of rapid economic development in africa as well now in addition to the economic change and the geopolitical change are three other major disruptive forces all interconnected but both the driver of the economic change and the greatest propellant of disruption today is the extraordinary rate of technological change as well this isn't an automatic uh fact but it just happens uh and it was by no means guaranteed that the digital revolution is proving far more revolutionary and productive than was widely expected even 10 or 20 years ago we all know it and feel it every hour of our day the
artificial intelligence advances the large language models these seemingly
just uh sprang upon us in the last few years and for most of us that was the
fact of course uh the uh scientists the computer scientists the mathematicians
the electrical engineers uh the uh others in this field have been developing the underlying reality of this revolution uh at least for 75 years uh one could probably date the digital revolution to alan turing's imagination in 1936 and john von noman's brilliance in the early 1940s but it required cascades of advances of the transistor of uh the integrated circuit uh of uh semiconductors and microprocessors of connectivity of the uh worldwide web being invented uh of artificial intelligence and neural networks which was first conceived in uh the 1950s declared a dead end around 1970 and the
miracle of our time today so much has happened over now 90 years that has brought us to a pace of advance that is unparalleled and what's fascinating about this digital revolution is that it's revolutionizing every field of science so it's not only computation and artificial intelligence but what that means for biological sciences for material sciences for every other dimension of science and technology it's being profoundly impacted by these technologies the reason that this is so disruptive of course is that any profound technological change changes the way we work we live uh how our cities are are laid out uh the paths of urbanization the time allocation of uh our lives whether we're staring at
screens most of the time whether we're physically at work whether we're commuting all of this has changed through waves of technological advance and they will change probably more radically than uh ever before in the coming 25 years and in ways that are still to a large extent unknown and perhaps even unknowable at this stage now in addition
to all of this the economic the geopolitical and the technological change of course is the ecological disaster that is rising at the same time again not accidentally or incidentally but the economic success has had side effects and the main side effects that are dramatic and adverse of course are the ecological side effects the modern world economy grew up on fossil fuels fossil fuels just by accident not because they're fossil
fuels per se but by accident have the property that when they are burned they change the climate this is an accident uh it means not that fossil fuels are immoral or something wrong with them other than a quantum mechanical property of carbon dioxide which is the bad luck that it happens to absorb infrared radiation and the fact that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere because of the uh fact of the three atoms of co2 to configured in the
way they are means that the rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are warming the planet this is bad luck uh it's bad luck in the sense that it didn't have to be this way
there are many uh many compounds that are not in their quantum mechanical properties greenhouse gases but carbon dioxide happens to be one of them and this was realized by the way ladies and gentlemen 129 years ago definitively so it's not news exactly uh the chemist svant iranius the nobel swedish laurate in 1896 with pencil and paper literally no computer model of course because there were no computers no climate models because there was no such thing as climate modeling but with the brilliance of understanding the implication of the spectrum of absorption of co2 that had been demonstrated in the laboratory uh in the 1880s and 1890s understood that more co2 would warm the planet and with paper and pencil apparently over an 18-month period arranius reached the conclusion that if co2 doubles in the atmosphere that would lead to around 5°c warming and that so-called climate sensitivity turns out 129 years later to be right on the mark uh actually uh right on the mark in an absolutely alarming way because up until a few years ago it was said that iranius was wrong that he overestimated the climate sensitivity because of various feedbacks and the ipcc that intergovernmental panel that gives us the consensus on science said that the climate sensitivity is quote only 3° c for a doubling of co2
to i had a very i have a very annoying colleague at columbia university uh who
happens to be a genius uh and a very brave man and america's leading climatologist named james hansen i've mentioned him each time i speak here because he always gives me bad news uh and so i like to share the bad news just to get it off my back but he wrote a paper earlier this year that said "no all of the evidence put together now of earth observation of the energy imbalance which now can be directly measured by satellites and the paleoclimate record of how temperatures changed in the ancient climate suggests that the sensitivity is 4.8° 8° c for a doubling of co2 and hansen is very annoying by the way because for 40 years he's been right on just about everything and he just scared the wits out of me for 25 years as my quiet colleague because he'd come up to me and said "jeff it's it's much worse than we think." uh and this is uh actually the findings you'll all know that we breached the 1.5° sea level which we said 10 years ago at the paris climate conference we would not allow to happen and just 10 years later way ahead of the predicted course we reached 1.5 degrees warming compared to the pre-industrial temperature which is usually taken to be the average 1850 to 1900 or 1880 to 1920
as the base we're now 1.5 degrees higher than that when that happened 3 years ago
was said well that's just temporary that's an el nino effect but now we've
gone through an el nino to a leninia to neutral and the temperature is hanging
at 1.5° c and hansen argues and many other climate scientists now argue that's because the underlying sensitivity is higher than we thought and some of the warming had been hidden from view because of pollution from ocean shipping specifically sulfate aerosols that was dimming the sunlight but as the ocean shipping got cleaned up that exposed the underlying faster rate of warming well suffice it to say ladies and gentlemen this climatological change is part of a more general ecological disaster that is unfolding
that we still have not come to grips with because it's not only the climate change and all the effects from climate change it's also the massive disruptions to ecosystems think about all of the deforestation of malaysia throughout southeast asia it's taking place in the congo basin it's taking place in the amazon many of the rainforest regions are reaching tipping points because rainforests provide their own uh rainfall uh by the way they transport rainfall along the margins of rainforests through the hydraologic cycle that they induce and it's possible to reach tipping points where you chop down enough rainforest and you convert to dryland and this is happening in the southern amazon for example which is close to a tipping point at this stage well it's not only the rainforests that are a threat it is our wetland land areas our alpine areas uh the boreal
regions of the world the fisheries of the world the coastal regions of the world they're all under assault so we have a major loss of species a growing list of species at risk of extinction a growing list of ecosystems at risk of reaching tipping points where they flip into some kind of ecological failure then add a third dimension of the ecological catastrophe and that is the chemical pollutants which are now pervasive in our bodies the
microplastics in our brains uh we are living in a sea of chemical pollutants
because we have a modern uh chemistry prochemical industry and it creates not
only plastics and other things that we use but it creates pervasive pollution
of the air the fresh water the soils the oceans now it doesn't sound like i'm on
an optimistic note but let me just hasten to add quickly there are solutions to these challenges there are ways to do things that we now understand that scientists and technologists have invented that give us the way out the problem is applying them at the speed the scope the scale to actually solve these problems the fundamental problems are therefore political they are not technological because the options exist to solve these
problems but we are not solving them at scale the last disruptor that i want to
mention is the demographic change because we're in a period of rapid demographic change it comes in many varieties depending on which part of the world in parts of asia the rapid demographic change is the end of population growth and the rapid aging of the population and actually not only reaching peak population but now entering a period of rapid decline of population china is exhibit a china has reached its peak population and if you take a reasonable extrapolation of china's demography china's population will fall
below a billion people by the end of the century but arguably and quite possibly
below 800 million so there will be a dramatic decline because the fertility
rates are so low at the same time the aging of the population will be significant with the median age near 60 years old uh this is quite a change of society ahead other parts of the world are still in a rapid population growth and africa is the continent that still has very high fertility rates and will therefore expand from the current 1.4 4 billion people to perhaps 2 and a half billion by midentury rising from about 18% of the
world population to more than 25% of the world population and if you extrapolate
somewhat mechanically because it's risky to make too many extrapolations too far
africa's population reaches nearly 4 billion people by 2100 in a world of
about 10 billion overall so almost 40% of the world population from around 10%
at mid 20th century from 1950 to 2100 so we have massive change of population as well and that means massive change of migration that means massive changes of the location of economic activity and so forth well you put all of this together clearly we are at a period of extraordinarily disruptive change and we feel the earth shaking and we feel that no one is quite in control but there's one more element that i think is
important and notable i don't know how to put this politely but uh the united states is
having a nervous breakdown uh so this is another element of what is happening the us was for decades the most powerful country in the world the dominant economy and the technological leader two world wars brought that about rather spectacularly because two world wars ended europe's dominance because these were wars that were essentially european civil wars in that part of the world as destructive at industrial scale uh as cruel as horrific as ever could be imagined and that happened twice between 1914 and 1945
so by the end of that period europe was physically destroyed europe was morally
depleted and europe was financially bankrupt as well and that was also the
end of the imperial era for this region because europe was exhausted some countries tried to fight it for a while but reality caught up with everybody and european imperialism other than a few islands and another one changed hands yesterday with britain seeding another island uh um basically this period of european dominance came to an end and the united states became the sole uh major power because the united states in two world wars had only one day of those wars fought on american soil and that was of course december 7th 1941 when japan attacked the naval base in pearl harbor other than that the us just built its industry built its technologies advanced its technologies and world war ii was a period of astounding technological advance linked to the wartime effort uh the discovery of inventions of radar of semiconductors of uh all sorts of avionic and aeronautic advances of rocketry and uh and uh cybernetics and computers and so many other advances that came out of world war ii and hitler's insanity drove a whole generation of the world's leading scientists to the united states shores those that survived and so the us had not only the unique physical infrastructure and the unique scale of industry but it had the scientific leadership of the world with the partial exception of uh great scientists in the soviet union uh but with that one exception the us dominated and the us believed that that meant the dominance basically forever because when countries come to power in this way they believe their own virtue they read their own headlines they read their own press releases and the press release of the united states was the
american century uh this was labeled in 1941 by henry loose we're not quite
there for a century but they didn't quite make it for a hundred years but the united states thought that it would last as the dominant power of the world indefinitely let's say and for decades the us did lead technologically but smart people ideas education science and technology travels it diffuses and other parts of the world develop their
own home turf for these advances as well and i won't belabor this story except to say that the uh rise of first japan from the uh devastation of world war ii and then the so-called asian tigers uh taiwan hong kong uh singapore um sorry and as sorry i'm missing one and korea excuse me south korea republic of korea those four following the japanese model uh by the way in in a lot of ways in some cases almost literally institutionally uh achieved rapid growth and then china uh observed finally by the end of the cultural revolution that it could do the same thing and by today one has to say that east asia absolutely rivals the united states uh in technological leadership uh china in particular across a very wide swath of technologies is uh at par or ahead of the united states and in terms of production not only design and conception no doubt asia is far ahead of the united states in actually producing the advanced technologies of the 21st century so the united states didn't count on that uh but what has happened is even more interesting i would say geopolitically and that is the us had a very good run no doubt and it was
dominant financially economically and technologically throughout the cold war period with a real rivalry from the soviet union in the military sphere and in space technology at least briefly but when the soviet union dissolved uh into its 15 constituent republics at the end of 1991 in the american mind that confirmed it's not only the american centuries maybe it's the american millennium uh the idea was that there could be no rival anywhere for decades to come and now america absolutely ran the show who could even come close uh to the united states with the soviet union gone uh and the us considering most other parts of the world wholly owned subsidiaries uh of the us politics and and us soft empire
if i could put it that way well they're not very good economists in washington i
have to tell you they don't know how to look ahead they don't understand the deeper trends they never understood china and they still don't understand china from then until today there was no forward perception china was a useful rice growing ally against the soviet union that was china in the american imagination or a nice place to produce toys uh for american children as donald trump said a few days ago uh that the trade war would mean that american kids would have a few more less dolls uh than uh than uh they might otherwise have that was the perception i know it i know these people some of them are my students uh and some have been my colleagues a few have been my teachers they never understood uh the favorite article of the time was the myth of the east asian miracle when you are powerful you want to believe that anyone else's success is a myth uh and that was really the dominant uh meme in the united states in the 1990s and 2000s i can tell you one quick story i published a very good book that no one has ever heard of uh called rising asia for the asian development bank the worst timed publication i ever made uh because it came out in 1997 uh and it came out saying that asia had a very bright future because economic convergence is very powerful we made extrapolations to 2025 that were pretty much on track by the way and it came out a month before the asian financial crisis uh and so i think the asian development bank uh felt that uh this was the worst thing they ever published i don't i think all copies were probably destroyed uh but in any event uh the mood was that asia could never really catch up this was a bubble
uh a uh an exaggeration and so forth but that book quite accurately said look at the
long-term deep trends not at the short-term cyclical phenomena and it
didn't consider uh or study a short-term business cycle it looked at a 25-year
horizon and it got the point right which is that asia would continue to have
rapid growth and i would say asia outpaced what i predicted back in 1997
though it was a very optimistic and accurate assessment but what asia and
especially china did was close the innovation gap as well as the technology
gap so this is probably the most dramatic fact of all which is that it's
not only the cutting edge technologies that are being produced in east asia but
the innovation now is surging in east asia as well but the point i wanted to
make was actually a psychological point not a technological or economic point
the united states is deeply confused about all of this where is the american
century it's supposed to last at least to 2041 if not
2141 and suddenly it's not there so we are in a highly neurotic state
right now very agitated and it's hard to find someone
to sit down and say "calm down it's okay no one's taking away your good life china's not invading you china's not a threat uh it is very successful but you should enjoy that success." uh not uh bemoone that success and so the added factor that we're facing right now is a reaction a very deep and very unsettling reaction to this loss of leadership in
the us i have to say that most of the conflicts that we're experiencing now
whether it is in the middle east or whether it is in ukraine or the tensions
in east asia have the us always as one of the causes of those conflicts but
most of the conflicts result actually in a deep way from the exaggerated us
perception of its ability to dictate terms to others around the world and
this is what the united states did not understand that it could not simply tell russia we do as we want in ukraine or in other neighbors of russia because russia does not want the us military bases on its borders any more than the united states would want russian military bases in the western hemisphere but the us could not understand the reciprocity of that or the golden rule dimension do not do to others what you would not done have done to you and so we did not understand that and many of the other crises have this
characteristic what's dramatic is how ineffective unfortunately the united
states is at facing this right now this is why we have this tariff
eruption which is a complete sideshow not a real event it's a sideshow because
raising tariffs has nothing to do with what the united states needs it's not a
solution for anything and that's why they lasted two days and the stock
market and collapsed and the bond market collapsed and somebody came in to
explain to the president you better stop that and it lasted visav china for about
8 weeks because china said we will match what you're doing and then the united
states backed down from that as well so that's an example of what i would call a
completely dysfunctional reaction to a reality which is that the united states cannot dominate events donald trump thought that the us market is so important so dominant that no country could do anything but bend its knee and uh uh and bend to the us will and this is simply not correct it's not a proper understanding the us market for imports
is only about 13% of world imports now so you could close off the us market
entirely and the rest of the world would figure out how to get along pretty well
indeed uh and that was almost put to the test but the us backed down uh quite
quickly and i don't think that it will come back just to say and let me conclude here some of the reactions are far worse uh we are in what i call america's cultural revolution that's not a good thing uh cultural revolutions do not go well uh they set back china for 20 years in effect and the united states yesterday banished foreign students from harvard university that's not a joke that's insane it is self-destruction at a rate that is absolutely impossible to understand other than in psychological terms this is a backlash a resentment an aggression an arrogance to destroy the core of your prosperity and so one thing i know sunway university welcomes foreign
[Applause] students and it's going to pay off big time so let me just conclude with the following observations whichever direction one looks at the e ecological crisis or the still deprivation of very poor people in the world and you ask the questions systematically like an engineer and i know this room is filled with leading engineers i met several from seammens uh and yi chong is one of the great engineers of of our age uh and uh if you look at this problem from an engineering point of view what i love about
engineers is they say "you give me the specs of what you want i'll tell you how to build it." and you can do that with the problems that we face we can remake the energy system to be a zerocarbon energy system that works that is efficient that accommodates rapid
economic development that cleans the air in fact and has several other co-
benefits alongside and that is completely consistent with the kind of advanced
digital economy that we uh are antic participating and this is what i hope
asean adopts as an aim uh in the uh series of summits this year because asean should have a state-of-the-art 21st century green clean energy system for the future it can be done if you look at any of the other sustainable development goals and ask the question in a very practical engineering way could all children be in school of course they could be in school it's a unbelievable that they're not that actually hundreds of millions are not that's a lack of organization and a financing strategy that's not a technological uh
determinant outcome by any means could everybody have access to health care
well with all of the advances of uh artificial intelligence the ability to
provide health care anywhere at quality has soared just in the last 2 or 3 years
and this is not simply a wish this is actually happening in many places because now you don't have to have the doctors nearby for most things you can do remote uh imaging you can do remote uh diagnostics you can do a tremendous number of things that uh don't require the physical buildout of infrastructure in remote areas that simply were not
possible even two or five much less 10 years ago and so we do not lack for
practical solutions what we lack is the organization and the integration of the knowhow in our universities in our research laboratories in our think tanks with the governments so that this job can get done in an effective manner china by the way to my view is the most successful country in the world in integrating a high level of analytics
and long-term government planning and that's why china just put in its 50,000th kilometer of fast rail for example they built out infrastructure in a way that no other part of the world has done it's why they're adding 300 gawatts of solar power every year to capacity right now and that will probably go up to 500 gawatts in the next year or two the capability of massive transformation is at hand we need the organization the planning and the knowhow what finally will make this work is strong regional integration the
problems cannot be solved at the national level anywhere that's even true
for giants for india they need hydropower coming from the himalayas
from nepal and bhutan uh china needs an interconnection of its grid with
nextdoor mongolia and with southeast asia in fact the united states
absolutely needs canadian hydro power and mexican solar power in order to be
able to decarbonize the energy system and for the 10 asean countries of course
not one reaches a scale that by itself could make this kind of transformation
so this is why the asean summit is so important why malaysia's presidency is
so important because regional groupings are no longer nice things to do pleasant
meetings to have with your neighbors they are essential for success we need
governance at a regional scale and of course the scale that we need in east
asia is at least at the level of the economic
partnership of arp the regional comprehensive economic partnership that brings together china japan korea asean
australia and new zealand i envision that all 15 will be in an integrated
energy system even physical connectivity of australia with indonesia by submarine
cable and onto uh the rest of uh um the
rest of asean by the way zammons which is well represented here had the idea
for europe of what used to be called desertech which is to bring together a whole european grid with north africa
and the middle east europe lost the way seamans pointed the way but the politicians didn't follow uh but that's
the kind of logic that we need for regional solutions
china will play a huge important and positive role for this region and by the
way the united states is not lost forever uh we just need to get through our cultural revolution thank you very
much wonderful
thank you very much professor saxs for um you know the stamina and the passion in in that presentation you know i think
can be clearly felt by everybody next up i'm sure everybody's very eager for the q&a hence to lead our moderated dialogue
and the audience q&a i'd like to invite professor datri dr idris jala prochancellor of chasanway university
and an esteemed national leader in transformation policy and strategy and more recently popular podcaster
dr sri the floor is yours thank you
thank you very much uh it's a real pleasure to be seated here next to two
jeffres and uh i got a lot of questions that have been posted uh perhaps i have
i give the privilege for tantri if you feel like i give the opportunity to ask
a question okay
jeff much like you and those of us concerned about the fate of
humanity i am deeply worried having invested so much time
efforts and resources into setting up institution like the jeffree sax center
here and the asia headquarters of the un scsn here at sam university it looks
like all it takes is the white house to undo everything and turn the world
upside down how do you think we can overcome this real challenge to advance the
sustainability agenda and the hopes of building a brighter future for our
future generation jeff please thank you very much uh
i think the starting point uh again i'll say something negative then i'll say something positive about the united
states also but a starting point is is basic uh the us is 4.1% of the world
population as i've said it's about 14% of the world
gdp it's somewhere around 14% of the world co2
emissions it's important but it's not
decisive if you measure gdp at so-called
international prices or purchasing power prices china is about 30% larger than
the united states today and as i just said the united states has a counterpart
of 86% of the world the united states is not only
diminishing in its relative size and importance but for the moment it's
abandoning uh international responsibility the us has announced that
it's leaving the climate agreement the paris agreement uh the united states is
uh basically leaving many multilateral uh activities also the world health
organization and others because the reaction to the loss of status is i
don't want to play with you if i'm not number one uh i'll be number one some
other way don't tell me what to do uh and so the united states is in a
psychological funk as i explained uh it doesn't want to play by the rules it
doesn't want to play by trade rules it doesn't want to stop its emissions it doesn't uh uh want to uh uh fund the un
and uh many many other things but the rest of the world has not
changed course as a result of this you do not have the rest of the world
standing up and saying about donald trump finally that's what we wanted in
leadership it's not happening what's happening is everybody's scrambling what
do we do uh how should we act uh and so forth
but not how do we follow the united states on the way out of all of these
multilateral objectives that has not happened what is happening at the un
level is a different kind of uh understanding and that is we will not
have unimity on the global agenda right now but they're using a phrase
substantial consensus meaning that most of the world
in fact a vast majority of the world continues to be signed up to the agenda
while one or a few countries are not and
this i think is our reality right now that the first of all the global agenda
is not being upended now having said that it's also not being
achieved and it's not being achieved because most of our time is wasted in
conflict and division right now the leaders even without the united states
are not getting together to talk about climate they're every day talking about
war i
every day virtually uh the uh prime minister of the uk president of france
chancellor of germany and prime minister of poland meet with mr
zalinski for what purpose i have no idea but they don't have day jobs anymore uh
they want to say every day we stand with ukraine okay this is
a a different kind of delusion which is that we don't have to talk about peace
we should just talk about war uh so uh while the us is uh absenting itself uh
europe is in a different kind of frenzy that it's lost its big protector uh
which it has uh the united states will not defend europe in the future but the
truth is russia's not going to invade europe uh and so there's a different
kind of fantasy that's underway which is that russia's about to show up on the doorsteps of uh paris uh as if we were
in 1815 uh rather than uh in
2025 so this is also a waste of time for us there's lots of waste of time the
ukraine war is a profound waste of time there is no reason for it other than
that the united states wanted to expand nato and when russia said no the united
states said we don't care what you say and it finally came to blows that is the
essence of this war and the essence of the war in the middle
east is also absolutely straightforward israel says we want
everything the rest of the world says you get half israel says we want
everything the united states says we'll do what israel says 185 countries say divide the
property it's actually not half if you look at what palestine was at the time
that britain took it over in 1921 israel under its 1967 borders was already
78% but that wasn't good enough for the radicals in israel they want
100% and palestine isn't supposed to have even 22% so we're wasting our time on
something that's absolutely obvious 185 countries say two states and the
united states and israel say no israel dominates and until that's resolved the
war will continue this tragedy and all it takes is one change of vote not
israel's cuz israel has no veto but the united states it just drops the veto on
a palestinian state and peace will actually come to the middle east it's quite amazing uh these are problems that
are a waste of time that can go on for decades and of course they're tragedies
they're disasters but they're not complicated at the core the only thing
that makes them seemingly complicated is all the propaganda that surrounds them but if you step back a little bit and
understand the basics they're not even complicated and so the point
is that the agenda is not disappearing and
the capacity to actually implement the sustainable development
goals or the paris climate agreement or the biodiversity convention is much
stronger today than 5 years ago and incomparably stronger than 20 years ago
go it just doesn't feel that way cuz no one's talking about it right now all of
the discussion is about the war in ukraine or about donald trump's tariffs uh or about banning foreign students
from harvard university or something completely
irrelevant to our world we're wasting our time
my view is though most of the world is not part of that that's the dominance of
the news cycle but not what most countries want and not actually what
most countries are doing again i'll refer to china china is an extremely
serious government it's got plans it's got objectives it's got 10 and 20 year
perspectives and it's building those and it's not subject to
these dayto-day news cycles in the same way
and i think with asean it can be the same and should be the same and i
believe that's true of most parts of the world so i'm truly not pessimistic in
this i i'm frustrated i i'm uh a little shocked at my own
country but i actually have watched it pretty closely for 50
years a character in hemingway's novel
uh famously is asked in uh in in his novel the sun also rises how did you go
bankrupt and the answer is first slowly then quickly uh and uh one could say the
same thing about america's political crisis a long time slowly and now very
quickly but don't it dominates the news cycle but it doesn't dominate the real
attention of the world and shouldn't be allowed to our biggest danger is that
these conflicts get out of hand and here let me say a word in favor of mr
trump he actually does not like war this is the best news
imaginable boy does he like money he he likes big
airplanes he likes all sorts of things he likes golf as we were discussing but
he doesn't like war he is not a wararmonger and he is making peace with
president putin and he's being attacked for it in the united states but he's doing
absolutely the right thing and he's making peace with iran
except that everyone in the united states is yelling at him don't do that
but his instinct is yeah make a deal there might be some money in
it and that is actually good so it's not all negative even in that way this
president does not like war joe biden either liked war or just wasn't there
part of the time and someone else liked war but we had four years of war and
trump's actually trying to wind them down so all of this is to say i know you
asked me the question uh you know are we are we losing the whole agenda the
answer is no we're not losing the agenda and the climate disasters are going to
keep the agenda front and center no matter what but we are
distracted to no end right now and our politics is so weird in the country that
used to count a lot what the world needs to do is learn not to focus on that
little bit of the world uh and to keep the focus on the right things for the
longer term very interesting
thank you jeff the topic jeff is about shifting global order i just want
to raise this point three weeks ago i was in harvard i lecture twice a year
there and for the harvard ministerial leadership program uh one september and
in in april when i was there for a week the only thing that they were talking about
was donald trump exactly and you mentioned the the cultural
revolution that us is going through it just reminds me if you look through
history this was what was happening with the uk during the time of the second
world war churchill was in a denial he didn't believe that the the
british empire was on a decline he still wanted to make britain great again very
similar idea but i think the war really brought them down to reality at that
time i mean the war was ended i mean i i heard one of your comments you said in one of the
podcast 27 million russians died to fight that war and people have forgotten
that yeah they won't acknowledge it people have forgotten the fact that 27 million uh russians died to fight that
war for the rest of us the world and of course america came out there played a
very big part in the victory of the allied forces now the shift that we're
talking about here you talked about shift from a uniolar world to a
multi-polar world but us is not going to lose any significance at all it will
play a very big part but not the way it used to be exactly not at all exactly
now the question for you is that crystal bowling how long do you take you think
the us will come to their senses to accept that this multipolar world is
real and there's no turning back to mega in the way that they were doing it
dominance after the second world war because you said the cultural
revolution is bad and if it drags on for very long it's going to hurt the us even
yeah uh china's cultural revolution lasted 15 years from
1964 essentially to 1979 uh maybe to
1978 i don't think the united states will get out of this uh in
uh in less than 10 years uh because what's happening in the us is is not
donald trump he's a symptom of what's happening he's not the cause of what's
happening he is there in part because of the way that us politics works and maybe
it's worth i'll give you my quick uh 3minut theory of us politics
uh the us made a uh a very fine constitution in
1787 uh it was absolutely ingenious at the time brilliant people did it it's a
little out ofd you wouldn't do it this way now but it was the first written
constitution of its kind and uh they get a lot of credit for it the system turns
out however uh to be uh vulnerable to
several kinds of deep abuses one problem bedeled the united
states from the start and that is race so the united states uh started as a
extremely racist society one of the most racist imaginable uh with a large slave
population the us was the only country in the world that needed a war to end
slavery a civil war other countries did it peacefully but not the united states
the united states needed a brutal war to end slavery it's unique in that way and
so the us remains a very with a very significant
racist uh element and a lot of donald trump's policies are racist policies
actually uh this is part of uh the problem yesterday when he greeted the
president of south africa uh he had a lot of nonsense uh he actually showed
pictures that uh had nothing to do with south africa they were from congo
now but it's interesting but i just want us to reflect on that for one moment it
means that the millure inside the white house is so profoundly racist that the what is talked about
inside is simply vulgar and that is uh
the only reason you could have a president showing pictures he must have shown them to a lot of people they must
have had a good time looking at this but the racism is so strong no one actually
looked at the print underneath and said "well mr president that's not south africa." uh and so that that's the war
in eastern congo uh so this is one problem that's a deep problem that's the
anti-migrant anti-arab anti-muslim many things uh this is anti-china uh the us
has had an anti-china racism from the 1880s the yellow peril this goes back a
long time in american civilization so that's one problem which is pretty deep
the us has had waves where it gets over it and then sometimes because of fear
neurosis crisis it falls back into it so this is uh one of the factors that is
uh there from the start but it's in a bad wave right now we had this in the
1850s we had it in the uh 1880s we had it in the
1920s uh and we have it now big time uh a very racist period in the us by the
way why because the changing demography has put
the white population in a more defensive mindset a panicked mindset
because american society is actually more diverse than ever and in a way less racist than ever
except that there's a backlash among that part of the population that finds
this frightening so that's one part of what's going on a second part of what's
going on is that democracy is easily corrupted
you know it we know it money corrupts and the united states is a
corrupted political system the last political cycle 2024 was a $16 billion
cycle that's not a lot for a $30 trillion economy our government goes for
cheap but 16 billion's also not nothing you have to be a billionaire to play and
so this is a game of billionaires to buy the government and that is what happened
in the us and the supreme court legalized this kind of behavior it said that's free speech elon
musk is just free speech when he says "i'll give a million dollars to this one and i'll challenge anyone that uh that
fights trump i'll put a primary on them and he can pay you know so this is a a a
this is a an economic corruption is a second factor
not not properly understood by our supreme court when it legalized all of
this supreme court struck down all the limits on campaign finance under the
wrong idea that that is free free speech that's not free speech that's legalized
bribery and that's a big problem the third problem in the united states is
that it is an imperium and an imperium behaves by power of course but from 1947
onward it made the key foreign policy process of
the united states secret so everything's confidential and it's only because i've
seen all of this with my own eyes for more than 40 years now it's like the old
cliche how do you know when a politician is lying when he moves his mouth uh and
how do i know when the us government is lying about foreign policy when it says
something it's just non-stop lies but it's secret it's not really secret
everyone knows they're lying but you can't quite prove it because it's secret
it's deniable so the united states played a major role in
overthrowing the ukrainian government in february 2014 i know it i happened to be there a
few days afterwards and one of the people that played a big role bragged about it to me to my face explain "we
gave money to this one this one this one out on the maidan." when i say that i'm attacked as
being a putin apologist but they told me to my face standing on the
maidan but it's deniable because it's secret so this is a third point of that
has really weakened the american political structure uh and so this is
why it's not just trump it's deeper we haven't solved a
single problem in the united states at a major level for more than 40 years we
can't close the budget deficits we can't vote on climate change we can't do we
can't get healthc care universal coverage in the united states the
greatest trauma for 10 years was obamacare you know and there was a huge
fight but obamacare was a half of 1% of gdp and it consumed the nation for 10
years not the nation it consumed the political class for 10 years my point is
we can't solve problems right now so please have some sympathy have some
patience but don't be obsessed about it that's my point okay
okay wonderful predictably there is a lot of
online questions so many people have asked questions i can see them on here
if you can keep your answers a little shorter so we can cover them i i'd
like i'd like to ask whether the ambassador of japan uh hi shikata nori
would like to put his questions yeah please the microphone please
well thank you very much professor sax as a graduate of harvard kennedy school
i wonderful i'm a bit you know uh embarrassed you know that uh there's a
new um policy you know emerging around harvard university and
uh the i i'm really impressed you know by your uh talks and uh one question uh
which uh is lingering uh in my mind is uh uh when
we take a look at global uh international political landscape ape you know there is a strong view that
there is a rise of authoritarian you know states so
democracies globally you know may be undermined and you know such you know
rise of authoritarian states you know may hamper also the promotion of sgs
so my understanding is sgs you know have uh uh you know strong relations with
democracy or human rights although maybe sdgs may not directly talk talk about
freedom of speech but the us constitution us system
allows democratic change of uh the government so i wonder you know you you
also discussed this crossber energy you know power grid and u when the system o
of governments are so different uh would it you know make sense to
depend on for example energy imports from authoritarian states and then we
may suffer from energy embargo you know which may incr you know increase uh your
uh vulnerability so i'm uh very curious you know how you uh kind of uh relate
between those kind of uh political freedom democracy human rights and uh uh
this promotion of uh sdgs and this is uh
to a great extent related to uh how we could uh preserve and promote uh the
inter you know free and open international order based on the rule of great thank you very much how proud i am
as a professor at the kennedy school of government uh to have the ambassador as
as an alumnest uh of the kennedy school and incidentally i i looked up today
when the us government announced yesterday no foreign students at harvard
which is a shockingly self-destructive action of course not by harvard but by
the government uh 59% of the kennedy school is foreign students uh and that's
one of the great prides of great universities uh and uh this is uh uh
this is a terrible thing i hope that a court will rule it illegal which is
quite possible uh and that this doesn't go into effect but this remains to to be
seen i think there are many things i can't answer that in one minute unfortunately
so i am going to take a couple of minutes because i think it's important
um there are no pure types of government
and there are no single simple ideal types of government and therefore the idea that
we are good and they are bad is a very dangerous starting point it's i thought
the biggest mistake of the biden administration he said "the world is in
a battle of democracies versus autocracies." first of all if you start
with the idea that the world is in a battle you make a self-fulfilling prophecy you divide the world second if
you do it that way you end up missing all of your own failures and
obsessing about the limits of the counterpart
in the bible my i i call it my recommendation i say is my
recommendation is jesus christ's foreign policy uh and uh the reason is that uh
in the gospels there is a famous moment when jesus says to the
counterpart why do you point to the moat in the other person's eye when you have
a beam in your own eye and the meaning of the passage in the bible is why are
you complaining about the other clean up your own act and so i think that this is actually
truly from a behavioral and diplomatic and respect point of view how we should
behave in the world anyway we should say we have our failings and by saying that
you help the others to say oh no no no we have our failings and you reduce the
threats and you increase the mutual understanding everyone can say "my god
we're failing together we all have our problems." but instead the approach is
"you're evil and we're good." and this goes overtime in the propaganda of the
government narrative and in the media so putin is pure evil in the american media
china is pure evil in the american media this is to my mind both dangerous and
absurd working with the russian government working with the chinese government this is completely contrary
to reality i've said if i had to choose which government has been most effective
in the last 40 years i would say china actually why because china lifted a
country from poverty to prosperity
and with increased freedom of the population not political freedom but
increased freedom and this is an incredible success story one of the
greatest in history by the way how did china do it they followed japan's
model this is what japan did first in the maji restoration and then it did it
again in the 1950s and with eicada a decade of doubling of income china japan
taught the rest of east asia how to make a rapid economic
growth and so this is not uh by the way not an enemy nor is it something
unfamiliar what what what china's accomplished is very familiar it looks like korea's
accomplishment it looks like japan's accomplishment it looks like many other countries of the region it just did it
at a vast scale which is all the more impressive that it did this so i would
characterize china as a highly successful government governance
structure that is meeting the needs of its population in a quite brilliant way
now china's government will continue to evolve no question they use the word
democracy all the time by the way not as propaganda but as their understanding of
this process and moreover on one side china won't evolve so much because china
has been a centralized administrative state for
2,26 years since 221 bc when emperor uh
chin xiwang di uh first united theqin
empire i know that because lisa wrote a paper about that uh when she was in
seventh grade uh so that's the first time i learned about that but the truth
is china has been a centralized administrative state for more than 2,000
years and so xi jinping looks like an emperor it's not a surprise that is the
cultural tradition that's culture and that's real
but it can be successful or not successful it can be cruel or it can be
benevolent one of the most interesting writings on
politics in western history was actually the first book on political science ever written
2350 years ago by aristotle it's called the politics he invented political
science he invented almost every field of western study actually but he
invented political science in this book and he said there are multiple forms of
government but each form can be good or bad you can have monarchy or you can
have tyranny that's government of the one you can have aristocracy or oligarchy that's government of the few
you can have uh republicanism or you can have mob rule that's government of the
many so you can't just look at the form and say is that good or is that bad the
tradition in china and it's not an empty tradition is that the
emperor must convey confusion ethics to rule that you rule by the ethical
leadership what an interesting nice tradition nothing like this in the western thought in the western thought
you have machavelli but in confucian thought you have the
emperor who leads with virtues so i don't classify governments the same
way and what i do believe is that we need to deal with each other with mutual
respect and a lot of dialogue i started my day actually with
a zoom meeting with members of the diet japanese diet today and with academia in
a meeting that took place i think it was in the diet building i'm not absolutely sure cuz it was on zoom
but what i said there and i'll say again mr ambassador is that japan and china
and korea should increase the diplomacy and not be divided by the united states
in this [Applause]
and i pointed out something if i may with all respect in 2,000 years china never
invaded japan not
once two footnotes in 1274 and
1281 the mongols when they were in control of china tried to invade japan
and the kamicazi wind both times defeated the mongol
fleet but other than that china never invaded japan never even tried to invade
japan japan unfortunately tried to invade china a few times uh the first time
apparently was 1592 when hidoshi
uh the regent of the time went mad and decided to take over
the world starting with an invasion of korea that was a prelude to invading
china he failed as you know um and died in
1598 and then japan invaded china several times
uh starting from 1894 uh up through uh world war ii and
there's a very poignant book uh actually uh by a great colleague of mine and a
teacher ezra vogle whom you must have known ezra vogel was a great scholar of
both china and japan he died a few years ago but his last book was called china
and japan facing history and he said i love both countries but they don't get
along that well so i want to write the history of the relations of the two
countries and the relations are the following as the two as two confucian
civilizations they were at peace for most of two millennia amazing think of
britain and france they were at war for most of two millennia literally every year for
hundreds of years sometimes but china and japan know the monks would come they would
bring back calligraphy they would do all sorts of things but they weren't at war other than the examples that i just
gave and from 1368 until
1839 there was no war between china and japan that's from the beginning of the
ming dynasty to the arrival of the british in the pearl river in the first
opium war no war other than mr hidoshi
uh going mad in a brief uh escapade other than that no war it's sometimes
called the confucian peace because it there was a system but it was basically
a peaceful system of trade some tribute which was symbolic but completely
peaceful then came the british then came
war then came japan's astoundingly successful economic development starting
with the maji restoration which started in 1868 and japan did something completely
brilliant which was in 1871 it sent a mission of leading ministers around the
world cuz you couldn't zoom then and so they went around the world for 18 months called the iraura mission
and they studied who does the best of everything and they came back and they peacefully implemented all of that who
made the best central bank who has the constitution who has the best universities who has the best of each
the best army and so on and they took all the models and adopted them remarkably with one little rebellion the
satsuma rebellion in 1877 other than that peace it was the most successful
transformation and japan industrialized but here's my point upon
industrializing japan attacked china in 1894
and two of the leading diplomats chinese and japanese met each
other and ezra vogel tells this story in the book and the chinese diplomat is
crestfallen why did you attack us we're asian we're being invaded by by the
europeans why did you attack us and the japanese diplomat says "i'm sorry but
we've joined their club." that's literally the quotation and uh
you know japan industrialized uh and so it joined the imperial club for a while
now we're in 2025 it's time for japan and china to
say "we're together on this we don't need american military bases we
don't we don't need to be divided by outsiders
there's no reason there's no threat china's not going to invade japan
period there's just no threat and my view is just a little secret for all of
you if you all get together you absolutely will dominate the world
economy there won't even be a comparison if you put together japanese skill
korean skill chinese skill asean skill oh my god no one could
possibly compete it's all it would be a little nasty for the rest of us but uh
but truly why are you divided anymore so this this to my mind is is the real
uh is is the real suggestion and to put it to a test diplomacy is the key and
diplomacy means talking and i would like japan's foreign
minister to say to wang yi look you're big you're 10 times larger than we are
how can we be safe and i'd like to hear wang yi's answer to that uh because that would be
a very good question to ask and i would like the europeans to go to mr putin and
say "look we feel endangered how can you make us feel better that you're not going to invade
some other country after ukraine?" and i'd like to hear the
answer to that because it's a valid question i'm not worried about it by the
way for a hundred reasons but it's a fair question to ask what's not right is
to stand at the sidelines saying "you're an enemy we build up our military we do
this." without even trying the diplomatic approach diplomacy requires a table and
two chairs the military requires a trillion dollars a year which do you think is the
better deal
thank you i'm just so tempted to put two points to
the ambassador's question the first fact is that china in a very short period of time
they lifted 800 million people out from poverty this is the biggest poverty
eradication in in mankind's history actually if you really look at the
system of government completely misunderstood by the west most of people in western world look at china's model
of government as highly dictatorial but when you really think about it the method in which the the
government people get to the top is a corporate world jeff so you look at zinping he came
right from the bottom had tremendous organizational skills he didn't get
parachute to the top you know he he all the way up there in the corporate model
just to think about it if the world was to say all the corporate world we elect
the ceo and the chairman every 5 years through popular votes we don't get
country automatically as the as the owner and founder but if you lose election you lose it i think if you put
all the corporations using that model of electoral votes i think you'll find most
corporations go bankrupt but the question that's asked of ourselves is how come in the
corporate world that system is solid and robust how come in politics in running a
government we don't use that you got to ask fundamental questions so to me the
chinese model is very much a corporate model you think about it obama when he
became president the single biggest organization he ran was the senate he had only 50 people so he had only
experience in running an organization know 50 people he never really had experience of large scale organization
to run it but siginping prior to him backing over had tremendous
organizational skills to get this going i just my my one step point i just want
to move i want to add one more thing about foreign students at harvard uh in 1985 i had the best crop i ever had
before or since three students from japan one of them
became vice minister of finance and head of the global environment facility uh
the first woman that was vice minister of finance uh naoko ishisan who is now
professor at tokyo university the second became a great professor and minister of
industry uh hazo takanaka uh and a great
esteemed economist and the third became the empress of japan so that was fun wow
okay next i don't take any credit for that i just enjoy it well next question
on my list here is a viv fazerana from a law firm partner is she here in the
crowd yes right there and there yeah
good all right can you stand up please so we
can look at your face thank you sorry
um my name is vivi i'm a law firm partner in jalan nang i know ameno and i
have been a huge fan of professor jeffrey and when i uh saw your video
with uh john matchmire at at all in summit that was a great one for me my
question is based on what we have observed so far asan often finds itself
navigating between the pool china and us my question then is strategic neutrality
still a viable long-term posture or is it time for asean to assert a more
defined uh position in this pool between us and china thank you great thank you
very much look i think uh of course asean countries
uh should seek good relations with uh
all parts of the world so the idea should not be an alliance uh the idea
should be that uh asean which is a very open region in terms of trade should
trade with the united states if the us still wants trade uh with europe with
china and so forth at the same time two other considerations are important the
united states should not try to make asean choose that would
be not only unfair but if asean were forced to choose you would choose your
neighbor china obviously because asean cannot do without good economic
relations with china that's not even imaginable so the united states should
not force or try to force asean into making choices and if the united states
tries to put on secondary sanctions uh that impede asean's economic relations
with china they would have to be resisted actually because neighbors need
to trade neighbors need to have common infrastructure neighbors need to have
transport fiber uh management of riverheds and so forth forth so the
point that i would make is of course the goal should be openness to
all the goal should be good advice to all keep calm don't get into a conflict
we don't want to be in the middle of your conflict there is no reason for a
conflict at all fundamentally and i'll come back to that uh in a moment
um and don't make us choose and at the same time asean should
work closely with china on physical infrastructure and connectivity this is
a neighborhood the belt and road initiative is a very important positive
initiative it says put in fast rail put in renewable energy put in digital
systems that's to everybody's mutual benefit so that is how i would approach this
question i do believe in general again it sounds a little naive
but i believe in general that foreign military bases should be eliminated
period so over time i do believe that the united states
should leave we can't afford it anyway
and president trump said "well japan and korea should pay for our services." and
my view is japan and korea should say "thank you very much we don't need to
pay uh but if you want to leave that is also fine because we'll do it with two
chairs at the table." uh and and uh that to my mind would be
the uh the right approach to this
i've got lots of very very good questions but i find one in particular most exciting and this one is because it
relates to advice that you might give to our prime minister so this one daniel
raman oh sorry it's a bit of a moderator's sorry
an mc's privilege i i guess um if i may and it might be a bit of a controversial
question um it's about taking contradictory positions uh malaysian prime minister has seemingly taken
contradictory position positions in recent times condemning russia's in invasion in 22 yet has visited st
petersburg twice in the last year has urged carving myanmar out of asean yet recently met the honta leaders condemns
the gaza genocide yet still trades with arms supplying countries touts bricks
while affirming the un and the wto now some columns have come out branding this
as opportunism others say it is statesmanship rising beyond how do you
dis how do you uh professor sex decode these apparent contradictions and what
are your thoughts on what prime minister anoa needs to do to make his asean chair a successful one
well he sounds like a politician to
me and by the way an outstanding one uh he's extraordinarily talented and um and
and a very fine leader of malaysia and of asean so i'm i'm very optimistic uh
look all of these uh require uh some subtlety but i will tell you where i
come down on on those uh the wars need to end that's the
practical step uh when it comes to ukraine if you look at the history uh as
i have said this war could have been avoided so
many times had the united states had forbearance had it not pushed nato
enlargement had it not engaged in a coup uh in 2014 uh had it uh honored the
minsk 2 agreement that the un security council adopted had biden negotiated
with putin as i urged the white house to do in december 2021 and ukraine and russia were on the
verge of actually making peace in april 2022 when the united states stopped the
negotiations so the practical point is actually to end the war donald trump's
trying to do that i think all voices including prime minister anoir ibraham's
voice to end the war now through diplomacy diplomacy is the key point
when it comes to the middle east there is one straightforward thing that needs to
be done in my view of course it's a morass this war has gone on for more
than a hundred years actually uh my colleague rashid khaledi a great uh
colleague of mine who's a palestinian professor at columbia university wrote a recent book called
the israel's 100red years war on palestine uh i think that's the title or
close to it uh basically he recounts the fact that what's going on now has been going on for more than a hundred years
what is needed practically speaking is for the united states to stop its veto
of a state of palestine as the 194th un member
state with within an hour palestine could become a state on the recognized
borders of the 4th of june 1967 and if that were to
happen all good things would follow the arab league and the organization of
islamic cooperation have said repeatedly for more than 20 years we normalize
relations with israel when there is the twostate solution
implemented and what israel claims that there's no possibility of peace is a lie
they make the lie because they don't want two states they want one israel to
dominate everything so they make lies to try to justify that that's the essence
of what this is about what were the other contradictions yeah in general i would
not kick countries out of asean i would try to make neighbors work uh you can't
change your neighbors this i tried to tell ukraine also they could do everything they want
but russia's going to remain their neighbor so you better get along with your neighbor and by the way if your
neighbor is a little bit irrassable uh a little bit you feel a little bit
dangerous if i were you i wouldn't go provoke the neighbor tease the neighbor
yell at the neighbor set his garbage can on fire or do other things like that i
would try to be nice to the neighbor that would be my approach so in general
i would try to find solutions in the neighborhood rather than taking actions
of kicking out countries i would try to find solutions
i'm picking another question because this is an advice they're seeking advice from jeff uh to politicians we got a few
sitting politicians in the front row and also at the back row as well so the question is from datu omar sidik of hsbc
this is the ceo by the way
professor saxs it's an honor thank you very much um i'd like to reference some of your early work in bolivia and poland
for example where you managed to advise governments to take very hard decisions
uh to combat entrenched interests um and to sort of make real market reforms
where we it resulted in good outcomes in terms of economic growth and of course uh tackling inflation obviously in the
world today we live in a world of abundance but uh in afsan and definitely in malaysia there's still significant
social inequality uh in terms of access to education access to healthcare so
into your mind what would it take to incentivize big business governments to
be able to allocate resources um in a way that we guarantee uh a fair access
to education fair access to uh healthcare and for them to make the right decisions when it comes to the
environment uh what can malaysia do specifically thank you yeah thank you thank you very much let me let me say uh
two things about uh early advice that i gave in in bolivia which had a
hyperinflation uh that was 24,000% uh between uh mid
uh 2020 uh mid 1984 and 1985 when i was
asked to help uh and poland which faced uh the drama of the uh end of the
communist period and a deep economic crisis first when there is a deep
economic crisis you probably need very decisive measures uh that need to be
done properly and so i recommended very decisive measures second i was a a young
person now i don't know if i'd have the guts to do it now uh because uh it was
um acts of youth in a way uh but they worked thank god otherwise i
wouldn't be sitting here uh at least those two those two worked but most of
the time you don't face a crisis like that a hyperinflation is a very unusual
phenomenon these were particular moments of collapse of states basically and when
states are in collapse you have to do something to rescue the state and and
those are that was the nature of the recommendations that i made the problems
that you uh indicated are very different in character they are long-term
uh societal issues and let me just say a word about education since we're at an
education institution and an excellent one uh as a factual matter uh and again not
uh as a rhetorical flourish or a moral statement as a factual matter the
highest economic return of investment in a society is
education this may sound surprising but it's actually economically true the
finance minister should take special interest in investing in education of
course the problem is it's a little bit long-term you know with all the
technological advance it still takes 20 years for a child to go from
age 5 to age 25 the robots can do it in about 3 hours
by the way uh so all of our robots that will come mainly from china by the way
uh in the next 10 years will get their phds in about 30 minutes and if you want
a different phd it'll be a different 30 minutes so you'll have a walking talking
phd in biochemistry astronomy uh physics
economics finance and and all the rest and also the robot will do the dishes uh
so this is this is a change that we're going to have actually but uh for us
human beings it's really wonderful to have an education it's the greatest gift in life
it's the greatest gift that our parents give us uh actually with in addition to
the love that they give and our survival it's the education because that's the
most important empowerment possible especially in a complicated world
otherwise you can't make sense of any of this uh if uh and today you can't do it
in any place in the world at a minimum of a
secondary completion in with quality secondary school but that's basically
not enough uh for the kind of societies that people want and yet in subseran
africa today only 30% of the kids are finishing secondary school and not at
quality by the so they're not even learning what they should learn that 30% so as a factual
matter i've made calculations that the societal rate of return to investing in
education is 20% compound annual return or even a
little bit higher you can't beat that uh that's better than big tech it's better
than anything else you're going to invest in so the finance minister and
the education ministers for all different levels should really work together to make that
model work if you look at this region who are the top performing
uh countries in the world in education measured on the standardized tests of 15
year olds the uh program of uh international student achievement pisa
of the oecd all of them are east asian countries 1 2 3 4 5 six and this is
something not asean countries by the way other than singapore which is right at
the top this is something and vietnam does extraordinarily well uh ahead of its
income level by a very long distance china doesn't do the whole country but
tenzin uh shanghai and beijing is absolutely at the top hong kong
taiwan singapore uh korea japan all
superb education we should learn from this uh something really good happens in
the education uh it's also deeply cultural the parents are driving the
kids you better perform uh and this is also something quite amazing and
something quite wonderful uh so to my mind without question this is a public
investment that uh should be the priority of course once you achieve
universal education not only through upper secondary but a substantial amount of
university then the science and technology investments follow that and
this is the brilliant step that japan made first going from a cutting edge of
technology to a great innovator and it's the step that china brilliantly mastered
in the last 15 years you look at rankings of research right now china's ahead of the united states across so
many fields right now in terms of published articles of significance and so that required a lot
of public investment as well and so this is what government should be investing
in health care by the way has both a a a core well-being dimension to it we
want to live we want to be healthy uh technology allows that ever more
successfully actually so this is one part but second health is an investment
as well children who are not healthy don't learn uh poor health uh poor
nutrition is leads to a whole lifetime of disability actually and deficiency so
these are very practical considerations in the national income
accounts they're completely misplaced because they're called consumption
spending which is the most absurd thing of all if they were called investment
spending we'd get it at least that those are investments for the future but the
national income accounts put them as consumption spending when the accounts were written in the 1930s and this has
never been fixed since then so this is the point this should not be a hard cell
it doesn't require an emergency it doesn't require some you
know monumental heroism to do it should be the basic core idea that for malaysia to
achieve what it wants to achieve right now the great breakthrough is to the frontiers of science and technology and
that that is an investment process
just looking at the questions there related one uh from d mahinda singh he
was a former adviser to the ministry of education see in the crowd
is he here if he's not i'm going to read the question yeah okay
from your perspective jeff what are the present and possible future indicators
of quality education system both at the basic and higher education
levels very uh excellent question and there are two parts that i would give
for the answer uh one is uh the core
skills uh understanding our world science technology uh education
mathematics the stem skills so the first is getting the basic
skills correct and this is fundamental and this is what pisa measures and so
watch the pisa scores uh countries by the way like pisa scores when they rank
high and when they rank low they say testing is terrible uh it's arbitrary
well my advice is take the testing seriously uh it's good to benchmark
where you are uh it's good to understand where the performance is and what you
can learn from this systematic comprehensive measurement approach by
the way the person that runs uh the testing for the oecd andrea schliker is
an excellent educator very serious and he's done a superb job of making this
testing meaningful but the second part of education is under the sdgs
sdg4 is quality education for all and sdg target
4.7 is a wonderful target which you can look up online which is about the
learning to live in our world and it is about learning the culture of peace
learning respect for other civilizations learning about sustainable
development understanding what's happening in our world and respect for societies around
the world and the idea of living together uh on our planet in a culture
of peace and this is beautifully expressed as an aim it was one of the
favorite objectives of ban kimmoon uh when he was secretary general he called
it global citizenship it's learning the skills of being a global citizen and this is
extremely important as well because this is our real world and we see how hard
this is and when children are brought up to hate and this happens absolutely in
different places in the world and they're told in their education system that some other country is the permanent
enemy or some other civilization is the permanent enemy this is what creates so
much of the harm in the world today so we want our children to grow up to be
good people as well and that means a moral education and that means an
education of respect for others as fundamental or ethics
well the next question is slightly left field relating to the
pope so this is from d ana president of sunway deputy president
group is he here
ana give him the mic apologies so we it's it's an honor
to to be here uh the question is would the selection of an american pope would
provide some kind of counterbalance to the world that we live in and if we if
it's so in what way yes this is a great question and the answer is yes
uh definitely uh americans are uh actually very thrilled uh with the a
pope from uh the south side of chicago uh and they're paying a lot of attention
and that's a wonderful thing because from everything we know about pope leo i 14th he's going to be a wonderful pope
it's a very he's got a very unusual background a caribbean uh background uh
and um of his parentage from new orleans he was born in chicago uh most of his
pastoral work was in peru uh and he's very well trained in a kind of christian
or catholic social thought that i very much admire of thomas aquinus thomas
aquinus was a uh thomas aquinus was a professor at the
university of paris uh in 12 to 1274 off and on uh and um he was a
brilliant uh philosopher and
theologian and he took aristotle's philosophy which
was from a christian point of view a pagan philosophy because it was
pre-christian and he combined it with the the christian uh theology and he
made a great synthesis and sometimes it's called the synthesis of faith and
reason and pope leo i 14th is trained in that tradition he actually studied at st
thomas aquinus university and he chose the name leo i 14th because the
preceding leo was leo i 13th who was the
pope at the end of the 19th century and pope leo i 13th was a brilliant pope who
inaugurated a series of papal teachings or encyclicals starting in
1891 which are called the uh church's modern social teachings and in
1891 the first of these was in latin called raram novarum uh which meant new
things and it was about the industrial age the pope said "we need the church to
keep up with modern times." and that in set a 130year
tradition uh of popes talking about current
issues and pope leo i 14th took the name
i think to be part of that tradition his predecessor pope francis whom i knew
well and loved uh issued wonderful encyclicals in this tradition one in
2015 called lato sea about climate change and quite amazingly
uh the church the catholic church uh brought together the climate scientists
for several meetings to help inform the pope to be at the cutting edge of knowledge about the actual climate
science so this wasn't just a theological reflection or a sunday sermon uh it was based on the best
scientific knowledge and then in 2019 pope francis issued another encyclical
in this tradition called fatelli tuti all brothers and it was about
diplomacy and it actually started with a story a true story of a saint of the
catholic church st francis from where pope francis took his name francis of
aizi who in the year 1219 went from italy to
egypt to meet with the muslim sultan sultan al- kiml al- malik in 1219
at the fifth crusade on the battlefield he tried to convert the sultan he didn't
he didn't succeed but they had a wonderful encounter where they discussed
religion all night and in gratitude the sultan didn't kill st francis uh he led
him peacefully out of the battlefield and uh back to the christian side and
this encounter was recalled exactly 700 years later i'm sorry 800 years later by
pope francis and he dedicated the encyclical this catholic encyclical he
dedicated to the grandm of alahar university of cairo because he
said that's our world christian and muslim together in
peaceful encounter so i mention i mention all of this because this is the
tradition that pope leo i 14th will follow and that's wonderfully
promising i think that is that's about enough that we have for today and i know that today is one of very very
interesting session i consider this you could hear a pin drop it's almost like better than
netflix and i i i would i would all of us i think we all agree that professor
jeffrey sax is a enlightened renaissance man what we've heard today is a real
masterass a real masterass on an observation observation of human history
he believes that we have to look at history from a broad sweep rather than
short cycles if you take a long hard look at it and unwind it by looking at
economics and looking at history we've become lot more wise that we've heard
lots of wisdom today covering all sorts of topics and so we've heard the best
probably the best we've i've seen in in a podcast what we promised to
do sune is going to put many of these and make them
available online so that a lot more people will benefit from the wisdom that we have gotten today and that's what we
promised to do thank you so much once again give uh jeff sax the best of
malaysian applause thank you wonderful
thank you thank you very much dr tri just before we end ladies and gentlemen uh if i may kindly ask you to take your
seats because we just have one very quick closing remarks from our host dr tri sir jeffa um you know as a vote of
thanks and to kind of bring it all together at the end sir the floor is yours thank you very much idris and
professor sax yeah and of course as you know uh idris is our co-chairman for sam
parad and professor sax of course is jeffrey cha honorary jeffrey cha
professor at sam university yeah i i i'm just amazed how you
remember all the events and the dates as i can't even remember the date
of my birthday [Laughter]
well i trust you have found the insights by professor sex valuable and impactful this is
exactly why we are proud of our association with jeff through sam
university here the challenges that stand before us as we know are immense
and formidable and in this context i am a firm believer
in the proposition that the world works best when it works
together ladies and gentlemen from a relatively young age i
adopted my conviction that every individual must have a higher purpose in
life and for me that higher com calling is a commitment to give back to society
in a meaningful and impactful manner and nation building through quality
education and knowledge sharing my success as an entrepreneur allowed me
to establish the jeffrey cha foundation to achieve my philanthropic goals
and to date the foundation is the largest of its kind advancing education in malaysia awarding close to now more than 900 million ringit in scholarship and i'm confident that we will surpass 1 billion ringit by next year wow and in other words the longer i live the more i will give as you all know by end of this decade sunwave will have more than 10 hospital we will have more than 1,000 doctors looking after me so i should be should be able to to reach what i hope to achieve wow the foundation of course has gifted $20 million us to the un sdsn to help the organization carry out its mission in advancing the sustainability agenda globally our support for the un sdsn lies in its name as the un sustainable development solutions network the key word being solutions and today's uh presentation by professor sax is another prime example of our mission to bring cutting edge research and worldclass experty to malaysia and the wider asian region in doing what we are doing i hope the sunway and the jeffrey cha foundation can inspire more organizations in the region to commit themselves to the sustainability agenda this is much aligned to my personal moto which is i aspire to inspire before i expire and jeffrey as uh as i have uh mentioned earlier we are very grateful for the time you share with us even as you travel around the world for the greater good of our of humanity i'm really concerned that the safety and security of you and your family and on behalf of everyone here i sincerely wish you a long and healthy life for all the work you are doing for our world please take care take care of yourself and god bless you thank you once again ladies and gentlemen thank you very much country sir for your powerful inspiring message ladies and gentlemen on behalf of the organizers we thank you for being here today perhaps um i will invite surely all guests for networking and refreshments for members of the media kindly come to the front of our hall now if you may join me in rising and a round of applause to dr sri jala professor jeffrey sax and tantri s for today's session