馬凱碩 美國即將遭遇重大打擊

馬凱碩  美國即將遭遇重大打擊

Kishore Mahbubani: “Something SERIOUS Is About to Hit America…”

East Asia Rise 2025年5月30日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97NtTLrzE4s

馬凱碩是一位新加坡外交官、學者和公共知識分子，以其對中美關係的深刻評論而聞名。憑借數十年的國際外交經驗，包括擔任新加坡駐聯合國大使的經曆，馬凱碩認為，21世紀將由中美之間的戰略競爭定義。他經常批評西方對全球領導力的臆斷，並倡導以更務實、多極化的視角來處理國際事務。通過《中國贏了嗎？》等著作，馬凱碩探討了美國如何重新調整其外交政策，以避免衝突，並在快速變化的全球秩序中與崛起的中國共存。

中國在很多領域都領先於印度。中國的GMPP，我不知道他們知道這是印度GMP的五六倍，規模要大得多。你們進行了土地改革，進行了大量的社會改革。印度必須趕上中國。但讓我解釋一下為什麽我認為印度會成功。因為我必須順便告訴你，印度是一個與中國截然不同的社會。

我舉個例子。他們說中國的成功是因為它的政府，而你也記錄了這一點。印度的成功盡管有政府，但卻非常不同。雖然非常不同，但它仍然成功。印度很混亂，而且每天都很混亂。

我給你講一個故事，在金融危機最嚴重的時候，我在印度向全印度理工學院大會發表演講，那是一次非常重要的大會。順便說一下，印度理工學院是唯一一所培養出更多美國CEO的機構。印度理工學院，美國所有頂尖的CEO都來自印度科技界。

所以我在金融危機最嚴重的時候參加了大會，和一群人坐在一起。印度商人在午餐時，他說，難道你們不擔心金融危機爆發，國家崩潰，而他們看起來並不擔心。所以我說，拜托，你們不擔心嗎？於是，一個人對我感到厭煩。他說，拜托，基肖，如果情況惡化，會發生什麽？我說會很混亂。他回答說，在印度，我們每天都處於混亂之中，所以環境非常不同。但我可以告訴你，我是KL·馬克思的學生，我在加拿大學習了一年。KL·馬克思出色地記錄了資本主義如何真正創造了令人難以置信的社會變革。

在歐洲，封建製度被資本主義摧毀了。是工業革命將資本注入了資本主義，封建階級失去了權力。同樣的事情也發生在印度。

你可以看到，《紐約時報》頭版刊登了一篇精彩的文章，我在我的一本書中引用過。這本書講述了你提到的印度最底層的賤民，他們在某種程度上失去了希望，通過參與資本主義和市場，他們自己發展自己。階級差別開始消失。從這個意義上講，我認為KL Marx提供了部分答案。

我可以告訴你，印度正在發生一件非常了不起的新事。例如，在移動支付方麵，印度的領先優勢不如中國，但手機在印度正在普及，手機賦予了貧困的印度人權力，讓他們能夠獲得以前從未有過的信息、知識和連通性。所有這些積極的趨勢都將促進印度的發展，我認為，即使在1947年印度政治非殖民化之後很長一段時間，印度的發展也是如此。但正如你所說，印度的精神殖民化仍在繼續，印度精英們一直把目光投向倫敦，以尋找未來的答案，而不是向東方看。但我想說，在過去的2030年裏，曆任總理都在說“向東看，向東行動”，並且已經進行了重新定位。我想說，現任印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪非常不同尋常的地方在於，過去所有的印度總理在國際論壇上發言時，都會用英語發言，就像你說的，他們會穿著西裝外套。像你我一樣，總理納倫德拉·莫迪也穿夾克和領帶。今年一月我在達沃斯論壇上聽到他從不說英語，他說印地語，他說“我會說我的語言”，你從來沒見過莫迪總理穿夾克打領帶。他總是穿著印度服裝。所以，你所說的“精神去殖民化”是一個關鍵過程，也在印度發生。但與此同時，我想為英語辯護，特別是對年輕人來說，我想說，不要低估英語在當今的實用性。因為如果你環遊世界，當你到達阿根廷、南非、澳大利亞或哈薩克斯坦時，你會發現，如果你想要一種通用語言來使用大部分語言，大多數人會說英語。你知道，飛行員在天空中飛行時，他們獲得空中交通許可時使用的語言就是英語。所以，英語仍然是一門非常有用的語言，我不會阻止人們學習英語。但我完全同意你關於先生所說的，我們必須努力趕上西方所做的，我們現在必須努力做得更好，在許多領域，例如，如果你看看哈佛大學、耶魯大學、斯坦福大學和普林斯頓大學的錄取情況，你會發現亞洲人，包括亞裔美國人和非美國裔，都非常有競爭力。當沒有種族歧視時，比如加州理工學院，43%的學生是亞裔。所以亞洲人已經很好地證明了，今天，你把他們放在任何情況下，他們都能競爭，而且做得很好。中國在建立金磚國家銀行、亞投行等方麵做得很好。但我認為中國也應該更進一步，因為國際貨幣基金組織的負責人克裏斯蒂娜·拉加德實際上曾經說過，國際貨幣基金組織的章程或憲章都寫明，無論它是什麽，國際貨幣基金組織的總部永遠都會設在世界最大經濟體的首都。從市場角度來看，正如你所知，我看了你的圖表，根據你的圖表，從市場角度來看，中國將在10到15年內成為世界最大經濟體。那麽，北京就必須讓位，允許國際貨幣基金組織從華盛頓特區遷至北京。但如你所知，當這種情況發生時，美國人會感到震驚。正如溫斯頓·丘吉爾所說，民主是最糟糕的政府形式，除非另有選擇。所以我想提一下一件非常重要的事情，因為這也是近代以來的經驗，即各國在壞獨裁者統治下也會遭受嚴重損失。菲律賓在馬羅斯·齊亞總統統治下遭受損失，剛果在穆罕默德總統統治下遭受損失，巴基斯坦在肖建國總統統治下遭受損失。在這些領導人的領導下，國家倒退了。所以，獨裁者也是一個問題。找到適當的平衡，並創造中國和新加坡成功做到的那種精英管理製度並不容易，而且這並非易事，但至少我們知道這是我們應該努力的方向，我強烈支持精英治理體製。現在關於中國和印度的問題更難回答，因為我不知道你們中有多少人知道這一點，但中印關係實際上相當複雜。大多數中國人不知道1962年中印之間發生過邊境戰爭。大多數印度人都知道這一點。所以印度對中國有一定的迷戀，但中國對印度沒有這種迷戀。這是一種不對稱的關係。但與此同時，前總理曼姆·辛格曾說過，世界足夠大，可以容納中國和印度共同發展。關於中印，我隻想說一點。亞洲的未來取決於一個大問題。中國和印度能否相處融洽，因為我們是兩個最大的社會。中國14億，印度13億。到2050年，印度的人口將更多。所以，這兩個人口最多的國家——中國和印度——如果不能相處融洽，亞洲就會陷入困境。所以這非常重要。印度和中國的年輕人都在努力克服近代以來未曾有過的動蕩曆史，並牢記，在西方殖民統治之前，亞洲國家和睦相處，中印之間有著2000年的和平歲月。中印兩國在2000年裏從未交戰過。因此，當我們展望未來時，悠久的曆史顯得尤為重要。我們不應該糾結於過去50年發生的事情。我認為貿易戰非常危險，我們應該感到擔憂。但與此同時，越來越明顯的是，這場貿易戰正在給世界上一課，讓我們意識到世界已經變得多麽相互依存。例如，當你購買蘋果手機時，這些產品來自許多不同的國家，而且它們不斷跨越國界。我認為，由於這些貿易戰，汽車、電話和飛機等公司開始受到影響，它們會說：“嘿，我的供貨來自許多國家。”我希望這些貿易戰的結果是，鍾擺再次擺回，各國會說：“嘿，這非常危險，我們必須阻止它。” 我對唐納德·特朗普總統的看法是，他希望擁有所謂的短期勝利感，但他不想打一場長期的貿易戰，因為唐納德·特朗普總統麵臨的劣勢是，他將在11月麵臨關鍵的選舉，也就是5個月後的6月。如果貿易戰導致經濟放緩，導致人們失業，他的政黨將共和黨可能會在 11 月的選舉中失敗，所以我認為這會給他帶來一些阻礙。與此同時，我認為世界其他國家正在向他施加很大壓力，要求他說“嘿，停止這種不平等現象，這是全球性的挑戰。”順便說一句，我想告??訴大家一個好消息：不平等原則上當然是件壞事。但經濟學規律告訴我們，在發展的第一階段，當國家發展非常迅速時，一個自然的後果就是國家變得更加不平等。以中國為例，它的“精靈係數”從0.3（非常平等）上升到0.47（與美國的不平等程度相當）。但這也是一個成功的故事。之所以說它是一個成功的故事，是因為發展帶來了不平等。所以，如果印度的不平等是因為發展而加劇的，這是一件好事。如果你有時間，可以讀一讀哈佛大學史蒂芬·平克寫的一篇關於不平等的精彩文章。他引用了我研究過的哲學家約翰·R的話。約翰·R說，在解決不平等問題時，最重要的問題是底層10%的人會怎樣？底層10%的人的生活會更好嗎？更平等的社會，底層10%的人在更不平等的社會中生活得更好，而且往往是因為不平等是發展的結果，底層10%的人在更不平等的社會中實際上生活得更好。以印度為例，印度的減貧工作雖然不如中國成功，但擺脫絕對貧困的人數也相當驚人。所以我給你的統計數據是，世界人口的四分之三曾經處於貧困之中，而貧困率從75%下降到10%。之所以下降到10%，是因為中國和印度是人口最多的兩個國家，所以不平等並沒有阻礙印度的發展。抱歉，但我想問題之一……嗯，這個問題的重點是……你是否認為基於種姓和性別的歧視是印度社會結構中的一個根本缺陷？……嗯，我認為印度曾經有非常嚴格的種姓製度，而汽車製度……正在因此崩潰。是的，印度存在性別不平等。但我可以告訴你，你知道諾貝爾獎得主阿瑪蒂亞·森寫了一本書，叫做《印度議論文》。這就是這本書的名字。現在我可能會寫一本書，再寫一本，叫做《印度議論文》。印度女性是世界上最敢於直言的女性之一。如果你去印度，你會驚歎於女權運動的力量，女權主義聲音的力量，以及印度正在推動的變革。所以在過去，印度女性確實試圖表現得非常端莊內斂等等。現在，你會發現一種截然不同的女性。所有這些在印度每天都在發生變化。我確信，我們今天所說的印度社會革命是深刻而根本性的，正在極大地改變印度社會。

Kishore Mahbubani: “Something SERIOUS Is About to Hit America…”

East Asia Rise 2025年5月30日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97NtTLrzE4s

Kishore Mahbubani is a Singaporean diplomat, scholar, and public intellectual known for his incisive commentary on U.S.–China relations. Drawing from decades of experience in international diplomacy, including his tenure as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations, Mahbubani argues that the 21st century will be defined by the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. He often critiques Western assumptions about global leadership and advocates for a more pragmatic, multipolar approach to international affairs. Through books like Has China Won?, Mahbubani explores how the U.S. can recalibrate its foreign policy to avoid conflict and coexist with a rising China in a rapidly changing global order.

China is ahead of India in many areas China's GMPP I don't know they know this is five or six times the size of India's GMP It's much bigger You've had land reform You've had tremendous amount of social reforms And India will have to catch up with China But let me explain the why India I think is going to make it Because I must tell you by the way that India is a very very different society from China I'll give you one example They say that China succeeds because of its government and you documented this India succeeds despite its government Very different but it succeeds India is chaos and on a daily basis uh you have chaos and I tell you one story at the height of the financial crisis I was in India giving a speech to the pan IIIT Congress and that's a very significant congress The Indian Institutes of Technology by the way are the one institution that have delivered
more American CEOs than any other institution Indian Institute of Technology all the top CEOs in America comes from Indian technology So I was at the congress speaking to this group at the height of the financial crisis and I was sitting with a group of Indian
businessmen at lunch and he said aren't you worried big financial crisis countries collapsing and they didn't look worried So I said come on aren't you guys worried So one guy got fed up with me He said come on Kishaw what's going to happen if this things get worse I said there'll be chaos he replied in India we have chaos every day so it's very different uh environment but I can tell you you know I'm a student of KL Marx I spent a year studying marks in Canada KL Marx actually documented brilliantly how capitalism really created incredible social changes and in Europe feudalism was destroyed by
capitalism right it was the industrial revolution that put capital in the capitalism and the feudal class lost power The same thing is happening in India too And you can see there was a fantastic uh page one New York Times story which I cited in my one of my
books about how the untouchables as you mentioned the lowest class in in India right who were sort of in a sense had no hope suddenly by participating in capitalism and markets growing themsel developing themsel the class distinctions began to go So in that sense I would say KL Marx provides part of the answer and I can tell you one new thing that is happening in India which is quite remarkable India is not as far ahead as China for example on mobile payments but the mobile phones are spreading in India and the mobile phones are empowering poor Indians and giving them access to information knowledge connectivity that they never had before So all these positive trends will lead to the development of India that long after the political decolonization of India happened in 1947 I think but the mental colonization of India continued as you said and Indian elites kept looking at London to get answers for the future and didn't look east but I would
say in the last 2030 years the prime ministers have all been saying look east act east and there has been a reorientation ation and I would say what makes Prime Minister Narendra Modi the current prime minister of India very very unusual is that in the past the all the Indian prime ministers when they went to speak at international forum they would speak in English as you said and they would dress and they would wear a jacket and tie like you and me jacket and tie prime minister Narendra Modi and I heard him in Davos in January this year never speaks in English he speaks in Hindi he says I will speak my language and you never see Prime Minister Modi wearing a jacket and tie He's always wearing an Indian outfit So the what you call the mental decolonization which is a critical process is happening also in India But at the same time I would say in defense of English especially for young people I would say that don't underestimate the
usefulness of English today Because if you travel around the world the one thing that you'll find when you arrive in Argentina or South Africa or Australia or Kazakhstan is that if you looking for one common language to use most of the time most people would speak English And as you know when pilots fly across the sky the language that they use when they get air traffic clearance is English for example So it is a very useful language still to have and I wouldn't discourage people from learning it but I completely agree with what you said about Mr the deniaing that we must aim to match what the west has done and we must now try to do better and in many areas for example if you look at the admissions into the top universities in the world Harvard the Yales the Stanfords the Princetons you'll find that Asian Asians including Asian-Americans and non-American nations are very competitive and when there is no when there's no racial kotaar like in
the California Institute of Technology ology Caltech 43% of the students are Asian So the Asians have demonstrated very well that today you put them in any situation they can compete and they can do well China is doing the right thing in setting up the uh as you know the BRICS bank the AIIB and so on so forth But I think China should also go one step further because the head of IMF Christine Lagard has actually said once that it's written in the constitution or charter of the IMF whatever it is that the headquarters of the IMF will always be in the capital of the largest economy of the world and in market terms as you know I looked at your chart according to your chart in market terms also China is
going to become the largest economy in the world within 10 15 years So then Beijing will have to make way and allow the IMF to move from Washington DC to Beijing But as you know it'll be a big shock to the Americans when that happens And as Winston Churchill said democracy is the worst form of government except for the alternative So I want to mention
something very important because this has also been the experience in recent times which is that countries have also suffered very badly when they had bad dictators So Philippines suffered under President Maros Zia or Congo suffered under President Moubu Pakistan suffered under President Xiao The countries went backwards under these leaders So having a dictator is also a problem So finding the right balance and creating the kind of meritocracy that China and Singapore have successfully done is not easy and it's not easy thing But that at least we know that's a way forward that we should try to do and I strongly support meritocratic forms of government Now the questions on China and India are much more difficult to answer because I don't know how many of you know this but the
relationship between China and India is actually quite complicated Most Chinese are not aware there was a border war fought between China and India in 1962
Most Indians are aware of this So there
is a certain obsession in India about
China but you don't have the obsession
in China over India It's a asymmetrical
relationship But at the same time the
former prime minister Manm Singh has
said the world is big enough for both
China and India to grow And I want to
make just one point on China and India
The future of Asia will depend on one
big question Can China and India get
along because we are the these are the
two biggest societies China 1.4 billion
India 1.3 billion By 2050 India's
population will be bigger So the two
most populous countries China and India
don't get along then Asia is in trouble
So it's very important that the young
people of India and the young people of
China make a huge effort to overcome the
recent untroubled history and remember
that before the period of western
colonial rule when the Asian countries
live side by side you had 2,000 years of
peace between China and India China and
India never fought a war for 2,000 years
So that long history is far more
important when you look ahead and we
should not be bothered about what
happened in the last 50 years I think
it's very very dangerous to have trade
wars and we should be worried but at the
same time it's also becoming very clear
that this trade war is teaching the
world a lesson and making us aware of
how interdependent the world has become
So for example when you buy let's say an
Apple phone right The products come from
so many different countries and they're
constantly crossing borders And I think
as a result of these trade wars when
companies begin to suffer automobile
companies telephone companies aeroplane
companies say "Hey my supplies come from
many countries." Then I hope the result
of these trade wars is that the pendulum
will swing back again to countries
saying "Hey this is very dangerous and
we have to stop it." And my view about
President Donald Trump is that he wants
to have what you call a short-term
perception of a victory but he doesn't
want to have a long duration trade war
Because this is the disadvantage
President Donald Trump has is that he
faces critical elections in November
This is June 5 months from now And if
the trade war causes the economy to slow
down causes people to lose jobs his
party the Republican party may lose in
the November elections So I think that
will hold him back a bit And at the same
time I think the the rest of the world
is putting a lot of pressure on him to
say "Hey stop it Inequality is a
challenge globally." And by the way I
think the one piece of good news I have
for all of you is that of course
inequality is in principle a bad thing
But the laws of economics tell us that
in the first phase of development when
countries grow very fast one natural
consequence of that is that countries
become more unequal And China for
example his genie coefficient went from
0.3 which was very equal to 0.47
matching America's inequality But that's
a success story It's a success story
because it comes from development And so
if India's inequality rises because of
development it is a good thing And if
you have time read a wonderful chapter
on uh inequality written by Steven
Pinker of Harvard and he quotes from a
philosopher that I studied John RS and
what John R said is that the most
important thing you need to address when
it comes to the issue of inequality is
what happens to the bottom 10% Are the
bottom 10% better off in a more equal
society are the bottom 10% of people
better off in a more unequal society and
quite often because inequality is a
result of development the bottom 10% are
actually better off in a more unequal
society and in the case of India for
example India's poverty reduction hasn't
been as successful as China's but it's
also been quite phenomenal the number of
people that have been lifted up from
absolute poverty so when I gave you the
statistic that 3/4 of the world
population that used to be in world
poverty from 75% it came down to 10% it
came down to 10% because of China and
India having the two largest most
populous societies so that inequality is
not holding back India's development
sorry but I suppose one of the question
um the point of the question is that do
you see discrimination based on cast and
gender being something fundamental sort
of like a fundamental flaw in the social
construct of India well I India used to
have very strict cast system That car
system is breaking down as a result of
development Yes there is gender
inequality in India But I can tell you
you know there's a book written by Nobel
Prize winner Amatya Sen It's called the
argumentative Indian That's the name of
the book Now I may write a book make
another book called the argumentative
Indian woman Indian women are among the
most outspoken women you will find in
the world And if you go to India for
example you'll be actually be amazed by
the strength of the feminist movement
the strength of the feminist voices and
the pushing for change that is coming in
India So in the past it is true that the Indian women were trying to be very demure withdrawn and so on so forth Now you find a very very different kind of women So all these things are changing daily in India and I'm actually confident that the social revolutions taking place in India as we speak today are profound and fundamental and changing Indian society dramatically Play