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加拿大阿省省長造訪海湖莊園 立即宣布獨立公投
卡尼勝選將如何改變貿易戰走向
How Carney's election win will change direction of trade war
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjlqwxevd0o
Faisal Islam May 3 2025 Economics editor•@faisalislam
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The Premier of the oil-rich Alberta province, who is a regular visitor to Mar-a-Lago, immediately announced moves to make separation referendums easier.
石油資源豐富的阿爾伯塔省省長普通訪客造訪了海湖莊園，他立即宣布了簡化獨立公投程序的舉措。
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馬克·卡尼在競選地廣人稀的加拿大總理的最後一天，我陪在他身邊。
這是他最後的衝刺，不僅是為了贏得勝利，也是為了獲得他所說的對抗“南方鄰國”混亂的領土和貿易野心所需的多數席位。
對於十年前將卡尼視為一位理智的技術官僚、一位危機管理型央行行長的人來說，他能從一位公眾演說家變成一位演講家，實屬不易。
我記得我曾無數次采訪這位當時的行長，試圖讓他說一些有新聞價值的話，或者說一些能成為頭條新聞的話。
雖然這次的馬克·卡尼截然不同，但他在危機經濟學方麵的淵源也是他宣傳策略的一部分。
卡尼身著當地油人隊冰球衫，在艾伯塔省埃德蒙頓對聽眾說：“特朗普總統破壞了全球經濟……美國在全球經濟中的領導地位已經終結。它仍在發揮作用，但這是一場悲劇，也是我們的新現實……在這場貿易戰中，就像在冰球比賽中一樣，我們終將獲勝。”
他的支持者高呼“肘部向上”（Elbows Up）並舉起手，這指的是在偶爾激烈的冰球比賽中，人們會采取挺身而出、奮起反擊的姿態。
“我們在全國各地看到的是，加拿大人正在為其他加拿大人挺身而出，互相支持，互相購買，來這裏旅遊……”
在他位於遙遠西部的最後一站，溫哥華島維多利亞市，由於隻允許半小時的競選活動，卡尼在支持者中“斷網”了。
“正如媒體報道的那樣，我競選時用的都是散文，”卡尼開玩笑說。“所以我要用計量經濟學來治理國家，”他指的是經濟學中那種枯燥乏味的數學公式。
在正常情況下，其中一些內容或許能讓世界更廣泛地關注。但在當前情況下，他贏得選舉的根源、他的政策製定方式以及他的職權範圍，可能變得至關重要。
周一投票結束之際，我接受BBC獨家專訪時，他顯得充滿信心，但並未掉以輕心。
對抗對主權的威脅
卡尼先生的核心論點始終如一。他說，他是應對唐納德·特朗普“背叛”以及對加拿大經濟和主權威脅的領導人。
他在美加邊境舉行的最後一次大型集會就是明證，身後是大使橋和標誌性的底特律汽車公司的天際線。
這座橋是加美貿易的主幹道。在世界上兩個高度一體化的經濟體之間雙向貿易、如今關稅水平高得令人難以想象的背景下，人們付出了巨大的努力。自由黨領袖毫不掩飾地傳遞了這樣一個信息：一個大陸已經發生了變化。
選舉結果令人震驚。
進入2025年，民調顯示，自由黨的支持率低至16%，而反對黨保守黨的支持率則高達45%。
皮埃爾·波利耶夫領導的保守黨不僅有望獲勝，而且有望取得壓倒性勝利。
但隨後，隨著特朗普總統以涉嫌參與芬太尼走私為借口，對加拿大征收國家安全關稅，並隨後提出加拿大應該加入美國，民調結果開始收緊。
就在八周前，馬克·卡尼當選自由黨領袖後，自由黨在民調中持續領先，並憑借這一優勢於上周贏得了勝利。
這場選舉如同總統式的裁決，決定誰能應對特朗普。
此前對美國總統的示好及其執政風格，從根本上削弱了波利耶夫的影響力。
卡尼吸納了左翼選民，他們害怕特朗普強化的保守黨政府。
令人難以置信的是，在魁北克，自由黨重新贏得了分離主義者的支持，而這些人更關心的是加拿大脫離美國的獨立，而不是自身在加拿大的憲法地位。沒有什麽比可信的外部威脅更能凝聚人心。
卡尼的戰略
蓋蒂圖片社 馬克·卡尼在競選集會上，2025年蓋蒂圖片社
卡尼在接受我的采訪時透露了一些關於他戰略的線索。他談到了與美國的“雙贏”夥伴關係，並提醒總統，加拿大是美國50個州中40個州的“最大客戶”，也是重要的能源和化肥供應國。
他還告訴我，他“有可能向他們提供關鍵的礦產資源”。在我看來，這是一種針對特朗普在其他領域所關注問題的談判策略。
加拿大擁有豐富的關鍵礦產資源，在西方國家將成為比許多其他國家更可靠的供應國。然而，卡尼含蓄地暗示，他的國家在這方麵需要做出深刻的戰略選擇，例如，與歐洲而非美國共同開發這些資源。
無論如何，總理都會利用外部威脅的動力，試圖改變加拿大經濟。即使在
在接受BBC新聞采訪時，他滔滔不絕地表示，他顯然認為貿易和戰略聯盟多元化至關重要。國防夥伴關係現在已成定局。
他似乎承認，停滯不前的加英貿易協定可能會加快推進。
周五，他曆史性地宣布，查爾斯國王將於本月底親自主持加拿大議會複會。這自1977年以來從未發生過。這完全符合加拿大憲法，同時也是加拿大長期獨立於白宮的驚人宣言。
現在，所有道路都通向卡尼將於6月中旬在阿爾伯塔省主持的七國集團峰會，屆時將匯聚主導全球貿易和國際金融體係的世界七大經濟體。
假設特朗普出席，這將在對全球大部分地區大規模所謂“互惠關稅”暫停期結束後的幾天內舉行。
人們常常忘記，如果加拿大和墨西哥擺脫芬太尼關稅，那麽根據白宮顧問的說法，它們將發現自己受製於這一體係，至少要繳納10%的關稅。
所有這一切都發生在美國傳統盟友對整個“貿易協議”進程日益不滿的幾天之內。
日本也越來越感到沮喪，其財務大臣現在公開指出，日本持有的美國國債是談判中的一張“牌”。
歐盟的進展並不順利。就連英國也暗示，與歐洲達成協議或許是提振經濟的更有效途徑。
與此同時，關稅正開始對美國企業和消費者產生看得見摸得著的負麵影響。
美國自身也開始感受到其行動不可避免的通脹後果，而美國幾乎沒有動力提供更多優惠。
空蕩蕩的中國貨船和美國西海岸空蕩蕩的碼頭很快就會出現在本已萎縮的美國經濟數據中。
卡尼深諳各國政府不確定的實驗引發的經濟危機，因此他或許對這些情況的走向有著獨特的判斷。最近幾周，白宮派出顧問安撫投資者，但市場中許多人對此並不買賬。
但卡尼也麵臨著自身的挑戰。他剛剛錯失了議會多數席位，卻選擇將此視為一種優勢。
他將尋求與美國進行“加拿大隊”式的談判。
這位石油資源豐富的阿爾伯塔省省長經常造訪海湖莊園，他立即宣布了簡化獨立公投程序的舉措。
無論是在國內、歐洲大陸還是全球經濟政治層麵，這都是一個非常複雜的環境。很少有人能夠準確預測事態走向。卡尼可能在其中扮演著非常重要的角色，而且不僅僅是為了他自己的國家。
How Carney's election win will change direction of trade war
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjlqwxevd0o
Faisal Islam May 3 2025 Economics editor•@faisalislam
It was his last push, not just to win, but also to get the majority he said he needed to stand up to the chaotic territorial and trade ambitions of his "neighbour to the south".
For someone who had got to see Carney as a cerebral technocrat, a crisis-managing central bank governor a decade ago, the transformation into public orator was quite something.
I recall endless interviews trying to get the then governor to say something newsworthy, or something that would make a good headline.
While this was a very different Mark Carney, the lineage in crisis economics was also part of his sell.
Carney told his audience in Edmonton, Alberta, sporting the local Oilers hockey shirt: "President Trump has ruptured the global economy... America's leadership of the global economy is over. It's still in play, but it is a tragedy, and our new reality… in this trade war, just like in hockey, we will win".
His supporters shouted "Elbows Up" and put them up, a reference to a stand up and fight back posture in the occasionally rough game of ice hockey.
"What we are seeing around the country is Canadians acting on behalf of other Canadians, standing up for each other, buying from each other, travelling here..."
At his very final stop in the far West, in the isolation of Victoria, Vancouver Island, with only half an hour of campaigning allowed, Carney went "unplugged" among supporters.
"As the assembled media will tell you, I campaigned in prose," Carney joked. "So I'm going to govern in econometrics," he said of the nerdy mathematical strain of economics.
In normal circumstances, some of this might be interesting to the wider world. In current circumstances, the origins of his election win, his approach to policy making, and the nature of his mandate, could assume critical importance.
When I caught up with him for the BBC exclusive interview, just as the polls were closing on Monday, he appeared confident but was taking nothing for granted.
Fighting threats to sovereignty
Mr Carney's central argument remained consistent. He said he was the leader to take on Donald Trump's "betrayal" and threats to Canada's economy and sovereignty.
It was exemplified by his final large rally on the US-Canada border, with the Ambassador Bridge and a skyline of iconic Detroit motoring firms behind him.
This bridge is the main artery of Canadian-US trade. A lot of effort went into this backdrop of the two-way trade of the most integrated economies in the world, now tariffed at unimaginable levels. An unsubtle message from the Liberal Party leader, about a changed continent.
The election result was staggering.
Entering 2025, the Liberal Party was as low as 16%, versus 45% for the opposition Conservatives, in opinion polls.
Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives were not just heading for victory, but for a total landslide.
But then following President Trump's imposition of national security tariffs on Canada, using the pretext of an alleged role in fentanyl traffic, and then his undiplomatic suggestion that Canada should join the USA, the polls tightened.
Then after Mark Carney was elected Liberal leader, just eight weeks ago, the Liberals achieved a consistent poll lead, which they rode to victory last week.
The election became a presidential-style verdict on who could cope with Trump.
Poilievre was fundamentally weakened by previous overtures to the US president and his style of government.
Carney incorporated voters on the left who were scared of a Conservative government amplified by Trump.
And incredibly, in Quebec, the Liberals won back support from separatists, who were more concerned about Canada's independence from the US, than their own constitutional status within Canada. There is nothing more unifying than a credible external threat.
Carney's strategy
Getty Images
Carney gave some clues to his strategy during his interview with me. He talked of a "win win" partnership with the US, and reminded the president that Canada was the "biggest client" of 40 of the 50 US states, and a key energy and fertiliser supplier.
He also told me he "potentially could supply them with critical minerals". This struck me as a negotiation tactic very targeted at what Trump has become fixated on elsewhere.
Canada has ample resources of critical minerals, and would be a much more dependable supplier across the West than many other nations. Carney is implicitly suggesting, however, that his country has deep strategic choices to make here, on for example, developing them with Europe rather than the US.
In any event, the PM will use the impetus of external threat to try to transform the Canadian economy. Even in the granting of an interview to BBC News, it was clear that he sees a critical need to diversify trade and strategic alliances. Defence partnerships are now on the cards.
He seemed to acknowledge that a stalled Canada-UK trade deal could be expedited.
On Friday he pulled off the historic announcement that King Charles would reopen the Canadian parliament in person at the end of the month. This has not happened since 1977. It is entirely in keeping with Canada's constitution, but it is also a stunning assertion of enduring independence from the White House.
All roads now lead to the G7 Summit hosted by Carney in the middle of June in Alberta, bringing together the world's seven largest economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system.
Assuming that Trump comes, it will occur within days of the expiry of the pause in massive so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on most of the world.
It is often forgotten that if Canada and Mexico free themselves from the fentanyl tariffs, they will then, according to White House advisers, find themselves subject to this system, with a minimum of 10% tariffs.
All of this occurs within days of some growing frustration from America's traditional allies with the entire "trade deal" process.
Japan is increasingly frustrated, with its finance minister now openly pointing to Japan's unbeaten holding of US government debt as a "card" in negotiations.
The EU has not got very far. Even the UK has hinted that a deal with Europe may be a more effective way of boosting the economy.
It comes as tariffs are starting to have a visible and tangible negative impact on US businesses and consumers.
There is no great incentive to offer much up, while the US itself starts to feel the inevitable inflationary consequences of its actions.
The flotilla of empty Chinese cargo ships and empty docks on the US West Coast will soon be seen in the economic data of an already shrinking US economy.
As a veteran of economic crises arising from the uncertain experiments of governments, Carney might be uniquely placed on how these situations pan out. Many in the markets have been thoroughly unimpressed with the White House advisers sent out to reassure investors in recent weeks.
But Carney too has his own challenges. He just missed out on a majority in parliament, but has chosen to try to project this as a virtue.
He will reach across the aisle for a "Team Canada" approach to talks with the US.
The Premier of the oil-rich Alberta province, who is a regular visitor to Mar-a-Lago, immediately announced moves to make separation referendums easier.
This is a very complicated, domestic, continental and global environment economically and politically. Few would predict exactly where it goes. Carney may have a very large part in it, and not just for his own country.
