中國不會在特朗普關稅讓步 等其死亡

中國為何不會在特朗普的關稅政策上讓步

Why China WON'T Back Down On Trump's Tariff Shakedown

2025年4月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpvf-2lXj2g

特朗普總統向世界宣布加征關稅時，中國位列榜首，並被征收了當天最高額的關稅之一。此舉本應促使北京坐到談判桌前乞求減免關稅，但習近平卻宣布了貿易戰，並宣稱中國將贏得這場戰爭，以及特朗普想要與中國進行的任何其他戰爭。為什麽事態會升級得如此之快？因為特朗普的權力遊戲是為了維護美國的霸權，而中國決心將其從霸主地位上趕下台。所以，特朗普此舉是認真的。讓我們來討論一下。

特朗普總統在玫瑰園的表演震驚了世界，他談到了對美國征收高額關稅的虛假數據，這意味著對其他國家隨意征收關稅是合理的。中國位居榜首，中國將被征收34%的關稅，或者更確切地說，任何進口中國製造商品的國家都將被征收34%的關稅。因此，中國以同樣的34%的報複性關稅予以回應。這並不是特朗普總統所希望的回應。他說，除非中國改變反製措施，否則他將額外征收50%的關稅，這將與第一筆關稅加上先前存在的關稅加在一起，意味著總關稅將達到約120%。每當特朗普玩這種遊戲時，對方通常會迅速屈服，承認美國經濟與幾乎所有其他國家之間殘酷的實力不平衡，但中國並不處於這種境地，並認為對抗全球霸主符合自身的核心利益。一位中國外交部發言人表示，這是美國的威脅。進一步提高關稅是一個錯誤，再加上另一個錯誤，再次暴露了美方的脅迫本質。中國永遠不會接受這一點。中國政府說的很多話都是虛張聲勢和傲慢，但在這一點上他們沒有錯。美國試圖通過這些關稅所做的事情，本質上確實是脅迫性的。那些最稱讚特朗普政府製定計劃的人，指出了其主要經濟顧問的文字和演講，並指出美國現在需要解決其結構性赤字問題。通常情況下，這可以通過減少開支、略微提高稅收來實現，這樣你的支出就不會超過實際收入。然而，這並不是特朗普真正想要的。畢竟，他剛剛宣布大幅增加國防開支，將達到1萬億美元。然後，他非常熱衷於減稅。這兩者都可能是正確的政策。明白你可以辯論這一點，但很明顯，它們並不符合降低整體預算的要求。赤字還在增加，而且顯然，如果你看過我關於埃隆·馬斯克的“狗狗幣”行動的視頻，你就會明白，這對美國的任務也沒什麽幫助。所以故事是這樣的，他們正在尋求一項“大交易”，再次改變世界經濟秩序，使其服務於美國的需求。所以，就像這樣：一是利用關稅製造混亂和恐懼，二是讓每個人都爬到橢圓形辦公室乞求協議，三是讓那些持有大量美元的人將他們的持股轉換為百年期政府債券，這些債券基本上要在所有人死後很久才能支付，這給了美國免費的資金，換句話說，作為回報，你獲得了進入美國市場的特權，同時也獲得了美國安全保護的好處，因為外麵的世界很危險，你知道，如果這真的是計劃，它就會與現實發生相當殘酷的衝突，而且非常首先，因為現在沒人相信美國不會在事後修改協議，也不會真正為除了自己以外的任何人提供安全保障，至少不會在事後提出額外的賠償要求。如果美國缺乏信譽，簽署這項協議，或者被人用比喻性的槍指著腦袋，你也可能會拒絕。其次，中國是美元最大的持有者之一，而且顯然不會將其持有的美元兌換成愚蠢的債券，或者特朗普幣，但我再說一遍，中國有取代美元成為全球儲備貨幣的野心。美國之所以能夠承受如此巨大的赤字，其中一個主要原因是，世界上有這麽多人想要持有美元，因為美元被認為是一個不穩定世界中的穩定避難所。特朗普過去三個月的行動，可以說比你能想到的任何其他行動都更能動搖這一假設，但中國也可以認為，它已經……必要時，美國可以
選擇放棄部分甚至全部核武庫。這將推高美國政府本已高得不可持續的借貸成本，並動搖美元在全球的地位。現在，這必須是經過深思熟慮的最後手段，因為它肯定會損害中國以及凱投宏觀首席亞洲經濟學家馬克·威廉姆斯對《每日電訊報》的報道。“中國擁有約3萬億美元的資產，相當於英國的GDP總量。”他說，中國不可能迅速拋售3萬億美元的資產。一旦嚐試，美元價值就會暴跌，他們所拋售資產的經濟價值將大幅縮水。這將重創美國經濟，迫使美聯儲介入並在短期內開始印鈔，這將在中期產生各種負麵成本。但威廉姆斯將其比作向坐在你對麵的人扔手榴彈。你肯定會擊中他們，但你自己也可能被炸傷。中國更有可能暫時滿足於采取更傳統的應對措施，例如對美國農產品征收高額關稅，禁止美國家禽進口，甚至禁止好萊塢電影。問題是，中國很可能確信美國在搞砸自身經濟方麵做得很好，非常感謝，而且中國對特朗普不經通知就胡亂行事的傾向感到警惕，因此中國會熱衷於等待特朗普下台，讓他沉迷於最大程度的自我毀滅，同時在……方麵勝過他。世界舞台
因為你知道，比如說，美國已經表明，它甚至不了解自己擁有的軟實力以及
它賦予它的優勢。中國說得很好。中國一直在向那些因美國國際開發署突然撤銷而陷入困境的國家伸出援手。
並向他們指出，如果美國成為更可靠的合作夥伴，中國將會更加可靠。因此，美國正在用懲罰性貿易關稅攻擊其盟友。中國說得很好。許多國家一直在降低與中國貿易的風險，但現在許多國家傾向於重新考慮這一決定，因為事實證明，與美國貿易的風險實際上更大。所以你可以理解為什麽他們可能不著急，但作為下一個全球霸主，他們不會允許特朗普在世界麵前欺負他們。與此同時，在世界麵前，中國人不會在特朗普麵前丟臉，這對他們來說意義重大，甚至比對他來說更大。至少他有能力宣布失敗為勝利，所有他忠實的支持者都會全盤接受這一說法。事實是特朗普自贏得大選以來，向北京發出了各種混雜的信號。畢竟，他邀請習近平出席他的就職典禮，但遭到了習近平的禮貌拒絕。他曾談到與中國達成一項涵蓋貿易、投資和裁軍等廣泛領域的協議，甚至在國會和喬·拜登通過一項措施關閉TikTok並使其脫離中國控製之後，他仍在努力讓TikTok在美國繼續存在。他報告說，他非常接近就TikTok達成協議，但後來發生了一些事情，這意味著中國突然退出了談判。結果呢？他堅持認為，對中國征收34%的關稅。與某些國家不同，中國認為，你不能一邊假裝是朋友，一邊又被攻擊。特朗普現在延長了TikTok的最後期限，希望中國盡快在關稅問題上讓步，然後一切又會回到談判桌上。誰知道呢？因為他承認中國是一個更強大的競爭對手，他很可能會悄悄地提供一些他不願提供的回報。其他人，比如特朗普，迄今為止，他對台灣問題的立場一直有些模棱兩可。美國負責公共外交的臨時副國務卿達倫·貝蒂去年在推特上發文稱：“現實情況是，台灣最終將不可避免地被中國吞並，這或許意味著台灣的變裝皇後遊行會減少，但除此之外，這並不是世界末日。這真是個讓‘讓美國再次偉大’（MAGA）基地做好準備的方法，讓他們支持某件事。告訴他們，如果中國軍隊入侵台灣，主要問題是，台灣殺死了他們中的許多人，並征服了其餘的人民，那麽，這一切將會導致變裝皇後的數量減少，讓台灣看起來雜亂無章。目前，中國軍隊正在以世界曆史上前所未有的速度建設，而西方國家，包括美國和俄羅斯，一直在烏克蘭戰爭中消耗武器庫存。中國一直在旁觀，從戰場上汲取教訓，並準備自己的軍隊。它也一直在學習俄羅斯的策略，包括虛假信息宣傳和……正在按照劇本行事，以分裂台灣民眾。在一份提交給台灣立法院的報告中，其安全局表示，今年迄今已檢測到超過50萬條爭議性信息。中國正在使用人工智能工具來促進這些信息的生成和傳播。你們或許已經注意到，過去幾天，美國利用了這些能力來嘲諷特朗普想要重新工業化的願望。盡管中國一直在加強在釣魚島周邊的軍事演習，並在附近舉行了為期兩天的軍事演習和實彈演習，並且一直在研發新的軍事工具，例如可用於快速入侵台灣的便攜式艦船，但這一切仍在繼續。我們認為台灣現在對美國在遭到攻擊時會強力援助的可能性有多大信心？我的意思是，不能指望特朗普，特朗普太難以預測了。因此，我們也不能完全依賴特朗普。出於同樣的原因，台灣或許會從以下事實中獲得一些安慰：在特朗普製定的名單上，台灣大多數時候都以獨立國家的身份出現。但大多數時候，台灣並沒有被承認為一個獨立的國家，以免惹惱中國。或許是因為特朗普提議對它們征收關稅，所以它出現在名單上，這在一定程度上緩和了局勢。與此同時，如果美中貿易戰持續下去，雙方都不讓步，很多東西在美國都會變得更貴，比如蘋果設備，而蘋果設備嚴重依賴中國的組裝和製造。特朗普團隊慣用的粗魯語言和一係列侮辱性言論，例如JD Vance告訴福克斯新聞，美國一直在向中國農民借錢購買這些東西，而這些中國農民卻回應說，中國製造的中國製造，稱他無知無禮，這並非第一次被指出。關鍵在於，特朗普相信，在他的領導下，美國未來一定會持續存在，美國將繼續主宰世界，並利用其實力迫使所有人接受不平等的貿易，這將使美國長期保持這種狀態。相信習近平肯定是其中之一，他正在摧毀美國的力量，因為他展現出恃強淩弱、自私自利、不可靠，對盟友構成威脅，並且在麵對更強大的敵人時無能為力。中國視自己為潛在的世界強國，並且已經做好了與美國發生衝突的準備，無論衝突達到何種程度。這意味著，要麽特朗普最終會退縮，或者至少會停止升級，以回應對其倡議的抵製，要麽整個事情會越來越升級。特朗普團隊和他們的“讓美國再次偉大”支持者顯然認為地緣政治是一場零和遊戲，所以如果最終他們一無所獲，那也隻能怪他們自己。與此同時，我們隻能坐下來，帶著一種恐懼和著迷的感覺，看著這一切的展開。

Why China WON'T Back Down On Trump's Tariff Shakedown

2025年4月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpvf-2lXj2g

When President Trump announced his tariffs to the world, China was right at the top of the list, and it was hit with one of the largest tariffs of the day. This was supposed to get Beijing to the negotiating table to beg for tariff relief, but instead Xi Jinping declared a trade war, and said that China would win this, and any other sort of war Trump wanted to fight with them. Why did it escalate so quickly? Because Trump's power play is about trying to hold on to American hegemony and China is determined to oust it from the top slot. So this one is in deadly earnest. Let's discuss.

when President Trump stunned the world
with his Rose Garden performance talking
about how the fake figures making up how
high tariffs were imposed on the US
meant that it was proportionate to slap
random tariffs on others china was at
the top of the list china was to be hit
with 34% tariffs or rather anyone
importing Chinese-made goods would be
hit with 34% tariffs so China responded
with a retaliatory tariff of the same
34% this was not the response President
Trump had been hoping for and he said
that unless China reversed its counter
move he would slap on an additional
50% levy which would combine with the
first tariff plus pre-existing tariffs
to mean that there would be a combined
charge of around about 120%
whenever Trump has played this game
generally the other side has caved quite
often quickly in recognition of the
brutal power imbalance between the US
economy and just about everyone else but
China is not in that position and sees
itself as having a core self-interest in
asserting itself against the global
bully a Chinese ministry spokesman said
this the US threat to further escalate
tariffs is a mistake compounded by
another mistake and once again exposes
the coercive nature of the US side china
will never accept this there are many
things the Chinese state says that is
bluster and hubris but in this they are
not wrong what the US is attempting to
do with these tariffs is indeed coercive
to its core those who give the Trump
administration most credit for having a
plan point to the writing and speeches
of his key economic advisers and point
to the need for the US to tackle its
structural deficit now conventionally
that would be done by you know spending
less money maybe raising taxes a little
so that you're no longer spending more
than you're actually bringing in that
however isn't really what Trump has in
mind he has after all just announced a
major increase in defense spending to go
up to a trillion dollars and then
there's the tax cuts he's really keen to
carry out either of those may be the
right policies understand you can debate
that but clear as day they don't line up
to bringing down the overall budget to
stop adding to the deficit and obviously
if you've seen my videos about the
contribution being made by Elon Musk's
Doge operation you'll understand that
that hasn't made much of a scratch on
the mission either so the story goes they are looking for a
grand bargain to once again shift the
world economic order to service
America's needs so it goes like this one
create chaos and fear with an onslaught
of tariffs job done you'd have to say
two get everyone crawling to the Oval
Office begging for a deal three get
those that hold significant quantities
of dollars to transfer their holdings
into hundredyear bonds government bonds
that basically pay out only long after
everyone's all died give the United
States free money in other words in
return you get privileged access to the
US market and also in return you get the
benefit of America's security protection
cuz it's a dangerous world out there you
know if that is really the plan it kind of
runs up against reality rather brutally
and very quickly first because nobody
now trusts the United States not to
change the agreement later nor indeed to
actually provide security to anyone but
itself at least not without making
additional demands for reparations after
the event zero credibility you'd have to
be stupid to sign up for that deal or
literally have a metaphorical gun to the
head and even then you might say no and
second because China is one of the
biggest holders of the US dollar and is
obviously not going to convert its
holdings into stupid bonds or indeed
Trumpcoin but I repeat myself indeed
China has the ambition of replacing the
dollar as the global reserve currency
one of the main reasons why the US can
even get away with the ridiculous size
of its current deficit is that so many
people in the world want to hold dollars
because it's supposedly a stable refuge
in an unstable world well Trump's
actions over the last 3 months have
arguably done more to shake that
assumption than anything else you could
have thought of but China could also
consider that it has a nuclear option to
hand should it need it in that it could
choose to dump some or even all of its
US treasuries this would push up US
government borrowing costs already
unsustainably high and destabilize the
dollar's position in the world now it
would have to be a calculated move of
last resort because it would definitely
hurt China as well as Mark Williams the
chief Asia economist at Capital
Economics told the Telegraph "China owns
around $3 trillion in assets which is
the same as the entire GDP for the
United Kingdom." He said this there is
no way to offload three trillion of
assets in a hurry as soon as it tried
the value of the dollar would plunge and
they would lose much of the economic
value of what they were divesting it
would tank the US economy it would force
the Fed to step in and start printing
money in the short term which would have
all sorts of negative costs in the
medium term but Williams likened it to
lobbing a hand grenade at someone
sitting just across from you in a room
sure you're going to hit them but you
can get burned pretty well yourself as
well more likely China will content
itself for now in doing the more
traditional response actions slapping
major tariffs on for example American
agriculture banning US poultry imports
maybe banning Hollywood movies the thing
is China is likely convinced that the US
is doing a perfectly fine job thank you
very much of screwing up its own economy
and it is wary of Trump's propensity to
do random stuff without notice so it'll
be keen to wait him out let him indulge
in maximum self-destruction while
outsmarting him on the world stage
because you know the US has shown for
instance that it doesn't even understand
all the soft power it had and the
advantage that it gave it well great
says China china's been moving into
those left high and dry by the sudden
abolition of USAID and pointing out to
them how much more reliable a partner
China would be so the US is attacking
its allies with punitive trade tariffs
well great says China many of those
countries had been derisking their
exposure to trade with China but many of
them will now be inclined to revisit
that decision because it turns out in
practice that being exposed to America
is actually even more risky so you can
see why they might not be in a hurry but
they won't as the putitive next supreme
global power allow Trump to bully them
in the meantime in front of the world
the Chinese will not lose face to Trump
that is a big deal for them even bigger
than it is for him at least he has the
ability to declare a defeat to be a
victory and all his devoted supporters
will swallow the claim hook line and
sinker and the fact has been that Trump
has sent mixed signals to Beijing since
he won his election after all he invited
Xiinping to attend his inauguration an
invitation which was politely declined
he has talked about striking a wide
ranging deal with China covering trade
investment and disarmament and he's even
been working to keep Tik Tok alive in
the US after Congress and Joe Biden
passed a measure to shut it down and let
it divested from Chinese control indeed
he reported he was very close to a deal
on Tik Tok but then something happened
that meant the Chinese pulled abruptly
away from the discussions what happened well he stuck
34% tariffs on China that's what
happened unlike some countries China
does not believe you can pretend to be
friends on one side while being attacked
on the other trump has now extended the
Tik Tok deadline hoping that the Chinese
will cave soon on tariffs and then it
will all come back onto the table again
and who knows since he recognizes China
as a more powerful rival he might well
be prepared to offer things quietly in
return that he wouldn't offer for anyone
else so for example Trump has been
somewhat ambiguous to date about his
position on Taiwan the interim under secretary of
state for public diplomacy Darren Beatty
posted on Twitter last year "The reality
is that Taiwan will eventually
inevitably be absorbed into China this
might mean fewer drag queen parades in
Taiwan but otherwise not the end of the
world ah way to prepare the MAGA base to
support something tell them that the
main issue if Chinese military invades
Taiwan kills many of them and subjugates
the rest of its people is that this will
all be about fewer drag queens running
around making the place look untidy
right now the Chinese military is being
built up at a rate unprecedented in
world history while the West including
the US sometimes and Russia have been
depleting their stocks of weapons in the
war in Ukraine China has been watching
on untouched learning the lessons from
the battlefield and preparing its own
forces it has been learning the lessons
of Russia's approach also to
disinformation campaigns and is
following the playbook in order to
divide the Taiwanese population in a
report to Taiwan's parliament its
security bureau said that it had
detected more than half a million pieces
of controversial messages so far this
year china is using AI tools to boost the
generation and dissemination of those
messages indeed you may have noticed
that some of that capacity has been
utilized in the last couple of days to
mock Trump's desire to reindustrialize
the United States all this has been going on even
as China has been stepping up its
military drills around the islands it
recently held two days of war games and
live fire drills nearby and it has been
developing new tools for its military
such as portable bridge ships that could
be used in a rapid invasion of Taiwan
how confident do we think Taiwan is
feeling right now about the likelihood
of America robustly coming to their aid
should they be attacked i mean can't
count it out trump is too unpredictable
for that can't exactly rely on it either
for exactly the same reason taiwan might
have taken some comfort from the fact
that it appeared as a country in its own
right on a list produced by Trump most
of the time it's not acknowledged as a
separate country so as not to upset
China mind you that may have been
tempered by the fact that it appeared on
the list because Trump was proposing to
slap tariffs on them something of a less
positive side in the meantime if the US
China trade war continues and neither
side backs down a lot of stuff is going
to get more expensive in the US apple
equipment for instance which is heavily
reliant on China for assembly and
manufacturing the situation is not
helped by the Trump team deploying its
usual crass language and range of
insults such as JD Vance telling Fox
News that America had been borrowing
money from Chinese peasants to buy the
things those Chinese peasants
manufacture china responded calling him
ignorant and impolite not exactly the
first time that's ever been pointed out
the takeaway is this trump believes the
United States is guaranteed an ongoing
future under him where it continues to
dominate the world and uses its power to
force everyone to accept unequal deals
that will keep it that way many believe
and Xiinping is surely one of them that
rather he is destroying America's power
by showing itself to be bullying and
selfish and unreliable and menace to its allies and impotent in the face of much more effective enemies china sees itself as the world power in waiting and it is prepared to all appearances for a conflict with the United States at whatever level that should be taken to which means that either Trump will eventually back down or at least stop escalating in response to push back against his initiatives or this whole thing is going to escalate more and more it is the Trump team and their MAGA supporters who apparently believe that geopolitics is a zero someum game so they only have themselves to blame if they are left with zero at the end of all of this in the meantime we get to sit back and watch it all unfolding with a sense of horrified fascination lucky old users