狼普失策 中國強硬關稅，普京伊朗反擊

特朗普失策：中國強硬施壓關稅，普京和伊朗反擊，拉裏·約翰遜和格倫·迪森聯袂出擊

2025年4月15日 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpICfa5dZ3c

普京不會坐等特朗普，在特朗普對中國和伊朗采取危險行動之際，他正在加速美國霸權的終結。地緣政治分析師拉裏·約翰遜、格倫·迪森和特邀嘉賓前中央情報局分析師雷·麥戈文在這段關於美國帝國現狀的必看視頻中，解釋了唐納德·特朗普為何正在走向自我毀滅。

我們看到對全世界征收關稅，然後在幾個小時內，除中國外，所有關稅都暫停90天。現在發生了很多事情，美國與伊朗的緊張局勢升級，美國軍隊正在轟炸也門，烏克蘭衝突仍在繼續，俄羅斯和伊朗也在加快戰略夥伴關係的進程。特朗普在其執政的頭幾個月裏表現得非常敵對，現在局勢已經崩潰，拉裏，您如何看待這一切？就地緣政治形勢而言，您認為現在的地緣政治走向與什麽相關？因為形勢似乎相當危險。

這時，您會說：“好吧，林肯夫人，除此之外，您覺得這部戲怎麽樣？”好吧，嗯，一些相當……相當……嚴峻的事情和可能充滿希望的事情正在發生……最大的……最大的問題是，如果人們假設特朗普已經認真思考過這些問題，並且以一種批判性的方式提出問題，比如，如果我們對中國征收關稅，誰會從關稅中受益最多或損失最多？嗯，中國會受到更大的傷害，還是我們會受到更大的傷害？嗯，如果我在也門開始軍事行動，我們是否有足夠的防空導彈儲備來維持我們的存在，同時實現我們在太平洋地區針對中國的目標？嗯，我們是否完全理解俄羅斯和伊朗的新夥伴關係在戰略合作方麵的含義？現在所有不同的問題，如果你假設特朗普正在……在每一個方麵都提出尖銳的問題……嗯，他不是……嗯，我知道……嗯，我不會……我真的說不出我是怎麽知道的，除了……呃，一個有權限的人，他的反應是情緒化的，呃，他是憑直覺做出的。就拿中國來說吧。嗯，中國，呃，就其總貿易額而言，美國對中國的重要性在過去三年裏已經下降了。我聽說，呃，我看到有人估計，美國占中國總貿易額的3%到9%以上。嗯，相比之下，美國對中國的貿易額要大得多。中國一直在拋售美國國債，購買黃金。換句話說，如果他們想與美國建立穩固的關係，他們就會買入美國國債，賣出黃金。恰恰相反。所以，呃，特朗普已經為一場貿易戰做好了準備。根據他的假設，他認為他可以贏。但我要說的是，看看這些假設，你就會明白他贏不了。

因為，我以一個簡單的例子來結束我的發言。呃，美國正在加大其……軍事活動既試圖支持以色列的種族滅絕，呃，仍在為烏克蘭提供支持，試圖轟炸也門人，然後還想準備對抗中國，呃，我們還需要導彈和炮彈，但我可以帶你了解每一個類別，並向你展示，在所有主要的，無論是高空爆炸還是襲擊，他們都不再製造那些炸藥的關鍵成分之一叫做銻，啊，誰生產銻，那一定是中國，在中國之間有兩種選擇，如果我們不從中國獲得，我們可以從伊朗或俄羅斯購買，所以如果你從戰略角度來計算，說嘿，我們將增加我們的軍事活動，我們將需要來自中國的這種關鍵礦物，因此，讓我們采取一項政策，我們將盡一切努力激怒中國，這說得通嗎？俄羅斯是如何處理的？現在特朗普的做法似乎是呃，伊朗局勢升級，而且呃，本質上會給全球經濟帶來衝擊波，引發與中國的貿易戰。俄羅斯如何應對？嗯，我認為，他們可能正在失去一些最初對特朗普的希望，正如你在引言中所說，他不斷給自己惹的麻煩，相當多，尤其是烏克蘭問題，他又開始提供武器情報等等，而我們從《紐約時報》了解到，這場戰爭實際上是一場美國對德國發動的戰爭，當然，談判進展不順利，他們以製裁威脅俄羅斯，呃，再次提供更多武器，同時，你知道，他有野心要對加沙進行種族清洗，他已經對也門發動了戰爭，俄羅斯人非常擔心伊朗可能會發生什麽後果。伊朗開戰的後果是，戰爭將變得難以預測，可能造成的混亂也將非常嚴重。現在，它當然會演變成一場與中國的經濟戰爭。是的，這很荒謬。我同意拉裏的說法。我認為，當我們審視經濟戰爭時，它在很大程度上是一場操縱或改變依賴對稱性的競爭。也就是說，當兩個國家相互依存時，總會有一方更加依賴另一方。如果是這樣，理想情況下，每個國家都希望其他國家都依賴自己，同時減少對其他國家的依賴。現在，你可以做很多事情來減少依賴。你可以擁有很大的戰略自主權，中國就是這樣的，所以它非常自給自足，你還可以實現經濟夥伴關係的多元化。特朗普麵臨的問題是，他們實際上並沒有同樣的戰略自主權。他們無法自給自足。達到這種程度，而且他們正在切斷與世界許多權力中心的聯係，所以他們並沒有削弱多元化的能力。所以，如果你現在看看，不僅是中國，還有那些磚國家，俄羅斯現在又一次嚴重依賴它們，你知道，它們擁有所有的自然資源，可以進行所有的采礦和加工，擁有所有的工業能力，擁有自己的技術中心，就想要購買這些產品的人口而言，它們擁有巨大的市場。他們正在建立新的金融工具，所以，是的，磚國家可以完全自給自足。嗯，嗯，是的，為什麽這如此荒謬，正如拉裏所說，中國人可以實現多元化，擺脫對美國的依賴。我認為美國無法實現多元化，擺脫對中國的依賴。事實上，即使是稀土金屬問題，比如銻，也是一個關鍵問題，那就是銻的供應不足。考慮到中國擁有這些資源，並且幾乎完全主導了它的加工。所以，呃，我隻是不明白中國如何在這場經濟戰中被擊敗。記住，中國擁有的不僅僅是關稅武器，他們還可以開始拋售大量美國債務，他們可以製造很多問題，不僅僅是懲罰性行動，而是因為他們擔心，如果你認為對手會開始扣押你的資金，就像他們對俄羅斯和歐洲人那樣，順便說一句，呃，你為什麽要坐在這裏呢？嗯，我認為是凱恩斯提出的論點。
一旦你知道如果有人欠你100美元，那麽他們就會有問題。如果他們欠你100萬美元，那麽你就有問題了，因為你可能拿不到錢。我認為這是中國人和俄羅斯人都擔心的問題。所以，呃，俄羅斯會如何回應呢？我認為我們現在看到了這一點，他們不再相信特朗普能夠達成和平協議，這在很大程度上也是歐洲人的錯。因此，如果沒有外交途徑，俄羅斯人現在正在準備發動大規模攻勢，以便在戰場上解決問題。目前很多事情都變得非常糟糕。除了他承諾不會發動的所有這些戰爭之外，還發生了與中國的經濟戰爭。這真是一團糟。我不明白這背後的邏輯是什麽。俄羅斯副外長謝爾蓋·拉布科夫最近表示，他沒有看到任何跡象表明美國正在采取行動結束烏克蘭衝突。特朗普當選後，許多人認為他至少會重新參與拜登在多個戰線上發動的一些戰爭。我的意思是，如果要說聯合國和美國情報界有什麽好話，那就是他們已經堅定立場20年了，嗯，2022年前，伊朗最高領導人說不製造核武器，2007年，嗯，三年四年後，美國情報界一致決定高度確信伊朗在2003年底就停止了核武器研製工作，如果需要進一步的證據，這一點自那以後每年都得到重申，包括兩周前的年度威脅評估報告，報告稱最高領導人哈米迪沒有重新授權他22年前終止的計劃。好吧，所以伊朗沒有研製核武器。所以當內塔尼亞胡、特朗普以及所有人，包括他的兄弟姐妹們都說我們要確保伊朗不會……製造核武器時，他們到底想做什麽？嗯，現在……遊戲的名稱……實際上就是內塔尼亞胡希望特朗普做的事情，這一點很明顯，他們在周一會麵了，好嗎？內塔尼亞胡希望特朗普支持……如果有必要，對伊朗發動攻擊，他……得到了什麽？沒有，他得到了什麽？特朗普說，我們將開始直接……間接地說，伊朗……周六在阿曼就這個問題進行會談……這是什麽意思？好吧
誰會領導呢？那會是
我的私人朋友說，由懷特領導，特朗普
不是盧比奧，也不是那個叫迪克·特雷西的家夥，是什麽？
是迪克·特雷西的頭，迪克·特雷西的頭，不，他們
他們不會這麽做的那麽，這到底是怎麽回事？呃，還有談判的空間。
我覺得有人對特朗普說：“你知道嗎？伊朗人現在有自己的威懾力量。你知道嗎？他們成功襲擊了以色列的許多基地。呃，你知道嗎？盡管你熱愛以色列，但它終將被摧毀。它終將被摧毀。你聽說特朗普先生，如果你發動戰爭，如果你讓內塔尼亞胡發動戰爭，而你幫助他，它終將被摧毀。還有其他什麽事嗎？嗯，這裏有一絲風吹草動。呃，兩天前路透社報道稱，一些武裝民兵，一些伊朗支持的伊拉克人，其中八到十人說，你知道我們會暫停，呃，我們甚至可能解除武裝，呃，我們不想再繼續下去了。哇，這難道不是美國伸出的橄欖枝嗎？我不知道以色列人的情況，但這確實很獨特，可以用具體情況來解釋。不過，在我看來，伊朗人
也願意和以色列打交道。唯一需要做的就是讓特朗普意識到，我認為他已經意識到，他不僅在烏克蘭問題上，而且在中東問題上都拿了非常非常糟糕的牌。當WITCO與伊朗人對話時，他們會
說：“你看，我們說的是間接的，你們總統說的是直接的，他們就打算間接的。” 好吧，你有什麽辦法？
現在我認為惠特足夠聰明，能夠弄清楚以色列和伊朗真正需要什麽，然後他會和特朗普通電話。我不知道盧比奧、沃爾茲或其他人會不會關注此事，但這就是正在發生的事情，這很好，很好，因為惠特已經證明自己有能力為特朗普說話。他可能不太了解伊朗，每個人都在小題大做，
他沒必要這麽做。他所要做的就是達成協議，他知道特朗普願意接受的條件，所以我
現在看到一個持續數周的時期，至少相對來說，人們不會太擔心特朗普是否會讓自己陷入支持內塔尼亞胡的困境，而內塔尼亞胡有充分的理由與伊朗對伊朗發動戰爭。呃，是的，如果我們需要軍事行動，我們就會動用軍事力量，以色列顯然會深度參與其中，他會成為其中的領導者，但沒有人領導我們，我們做我們想做的事情。沒有人領導我們，我們做我們想做的事情。在他剛剛說完，我們會讓以色列領導，是的，所以他說，是的，這就是為什麽我說特朗普完全掌控了局麵，所以讓我們退一步，客觀地看看正在發生的事情。好消息是，特朗普唯一的要求，他說他們希望從談判中獲得的唯一東西，就是伊朗不能擁有核武器。伊朗會說“太好了，我們”沒有。”我們讓俄羅斯和中國來核實這一點，但我們會允許美國來核實，所以特朗普基本上會重新接受舊的《聯合全麵行動計劃》，他現在已經退出了，談判的重點是伊朗可以在多大程度上用於和平用途，伊朗可以濃縮鈾，他們正在與俄羅斯合作，這是1月17日簽署的戰略合作協議的一部分，但基於本周在莫斯科與中國和俄羅斯的會晤，伊朗在談判中處於更有利的地位，你知道，當伊朗坐在談判桌前時，它可以把他拉到肩上說：“我想讓你見見我的兩個兄弟，我的大哥。”所以伊朗不會空手而歸，特朗普過去曾暗示，他將要求伊朗切斷對胡塞武裝的所有援助。哈馬斯和真主黨，所有這些都是基於一個假設，那就是有大量的援助，我想說這是值得懷疑的，但我們隻知道，這將是美國的要求之一，呃，目前尚不清楚，呃，伊朗是否會就此做出讓步，但伊朗與該合作組織於1月17日簽署了戰略合作協議，該協議已獲得杜馬批準，呃，本周已批準，呃，現在表明，你知道，這是一項至少為期20年的協議，而且它非常重要，因為它涵蓋了俄羅斯與伊朗的軍事關係、情報關係、外交關係和經濟關係等各個方麵的影響，最重要的是，正如格倫和雷都指出的那樣，你知道唐納德·特朗普在這裏沒有任何王牌，呃，事實上，他可能能夠出來宣布勝利，我認為我希望在一種情況下因為會談結束後，他們會說，天哪，我們告訴伊朗人協議的內容，他們已經同意不會製造核武器，嗯，他們已經同意不製造核武器了，但特朗普卻把他們的協議歸功於自己，他可以吹捧這是一次外交成功，
而實際上，我認為他有點強硬，因為他有……你知道嗎現在我有時也犯過粗魯和庸俗的錯誤，但是你知道昨晚在共和黨的籌款活動上，他說，對於全世界 70 個國家試圖通過談判避免征收關稅，他們在拍我的馬屁，他說現在我向你保證，至少 80% 甚至 100% 的國家排隊拍特朗普聲稱要拍他的馬屁，他們不會說“夥計，讓我看看我是否可以買一些潤唇膏，這樣我就可以維持這種關係。”我喜歡拍特朗普的馬屁，我覺得他已經激勵更多國家想辦法團結起來，擺脫美國這種欺淩和霸權主義的愚蠢行徑。呃，俄羅斯、中國和伊朗正在真正扮演全球領導角色。呃，拉裏剛才提到了核談判，這在唐納德·特朗普與伊朗代表會麵之前就已經開始了。所以，這隻是觸及合作的表麵。你如何看待這種發展趨勢？特朗普似乎正在惡化這種趨勢。特朗普實際上正在加速這一進程。是的，這三個國家是歐亞大陸上的三大巨頭。現在，俄羅斯和中國的一個關鍵邏輯是，俄羅斯在西部邊境麵對以美國為首的北約，而中國在東部沿海麵對美國，所以他們不得不背靠背以保持安全。現在，拉攏伊朗是有道理的。在某種程度上，你確實聽到過幾年特蘭（Thran）說，他們的主要戰略夥伴關係應該與莫斯科和北京建立，嗯，是的，這將允許他們建立替代的經濟機構，這也是為什麽伊朗現在也受到歡迎，並將獲得加入上海合作組織和金磚國家的機會。所以現在俄羅斯和伊朗開展更多軍事合作也是合理的，尤其是在他們在敘利亞的合作以及伊朗在烏克蘭戰爭期間的支持之後，所以他們之間的關係越來越密切，這很有意義，因為為了減少對西方的依賴，同時也為了建立適當的國防，共同努力是合理的。話雖如此，值得注意的是，如果特朗普想與伊朗達成政治協議，那麽俄羅斯可能是一個重要的合作夥伴，因為俄羅斯並不真的想伊朗也擁有核武器。中國也沒有。所以他們可以成為重要的合作夥伴，遵守任何已達成的協議。但我認為，俄羅斯和中國都認為，與伊朗重新談判《聯合全麵行動計劃》的努力存在嚴重缺陷。請記住，現在要求伊朗放棄核威懾力，你知道他們之所以爭論，是因為正如裏和拉裏所說，伊朗沒有核武器。那麽特朗普想要什麽呢？他不希望伊朗成為門檻國家，所以他們必須消除其物質能力，他還希望伊朗削減導彈打擊範圍。他們希望伊朗削減對也門真主黨和哈馬斯的支持，這樣實際上就等於放棄了安全保障，嗯，是的，把安全移交給美國和以色列，並希望他們通過屈服，嗯，
他們不會這麽做。任何對伊朗不利的事情，這就是主要問題所在，你不能真正威脅別人放棄他們的威懾力量，因為威脅他們隻會讓他們明白為什麽需要威懾力量，我的意思是，這應該是常識，嗯，所以，嗯，不，我認為，嗯，是的，與中國和俄羅斯的夥伴關係是雙向的，一方麵，如果美國決定加大製裁或使用軍事力量，他們可以提供某種形式的支持，嗯，但如果美國想與伊朗達成協議，這不符合俄羅斯或中國的利益，嗯，你知道，讓中國關閉重要的海上運輸走廊，實際上關閉全球經濟，這不符合他們的利益，所以，嗯，他們可以作為和平夥伴，或者，如果美國對伊朗開戰，他們反而會成為伊朗的夥伴，嗯，他們在這件事上確實扮演著一個有趣的角色。

Trump MISFIRES: China CRUSHES Tariffs, Putin & Iran CLAP BACK w/ Larry Johnson & Glenn Diesen

2025年4月15日  #putin #tariffs #china
Putin won't wait around for Trump and is accelerating the end of US hegemony amid Trump's dangerous moves against China and Iran. Geopolitical analysts Larry Johnson, Glenn Diesen and special guest former CIA analyst Ray McGovern explain why Donald Trump is laying the path toward his own destruction in this must-watch video on the state of the American empire.

we saw tariffs on the entire world go into play and then immediately within hours we saw all of them be paused for 90 days except on china there's so much going on there's us escalations with iran the us military is bombing yemen we still have the ukraine conflict and we also have russia and iran speeding up their strategic partnerships trump melting down in what has been an incredibly hostile first couple of months under his reign what do you make of all of this larry uh what do you find to be uh uh pertinent right now in terms of where things are going geopolitically because it seems quite dangerous that's
one of those moments where you say "okay mrs lincoln other than that thing how did you like the play?" okay so uh some pretty uh some pretty uh grim things and potentially hopeful things going on uh the big the big problem is that if people are assuming that trump has sat down thought through these issues on in a critical fashion asking questions such as um who stands to benefit or or lose the most from the tariffs if if we impose tariffs on china uh is china going to be hurt worse or are we going to be hurt worse uh if i start military operations in yemen do we have the stockpiles of air defense missiles to sustain our presence while also meeting the goals that we
have set for ourselves in the pacific against china uh do we fully comprehend what uh russia and iran's new partnership is in terms of a strategic cooperation now all different issues and if you're assuming that trump is making uh is asking pointed questions in each of those categories uh he's not uh i i know that um is i won't i can't really say how i know that other than uh someone with access he is reacting emotionally uh he's reacting from his gut and let's just take the example of china um china uh a as a percentage of its total trade the us has become less important important to china over the last three years it's it's still i i've i've heard uh i've seen estimates between 3% of china's total cha trade and upwards of 9% um by contrast the united states sends a lot more in trade to china and china has been selling off us treasuries and buying gold in other words things that if they were looking
for a solid relationship with the united states they would be buying treasuries and selling gold just the opposite
so uh trump has set himself up for a trade war that based on his assumptions he thinks he can win but i what i come back and say is look at those assumptions and recognize he can't win
because just one i'll close with this one simple example uh the us is stepping up its military activities both trying to support israel's genocide uh stills providing support to ukraine bomb trying to bomb the stuffing out of the yemenes and then also wanting to be ready to go against china uh we need missiles yet and artillery shells but i can take you through each of the categories and show you that in in all the major whether they're talking highs or attacks they no longer make those one of the critical ingredients for the explosives is called antimony ah who produces antimony that would be china and between china there there there are two alternatives if we don't get it from china we can buy it from iran or from russia so if you're calculating from a strategic standpoint saying hey we're going to increase our military activity and we're going to need this critical mineral from china therefore let's adopt a policy where we're going to do everything in our power to piss off
china does that make sense no how is russia dealing with this what seems to be trump's approach now which is uh
escalate with iran and also uh essentially cause send shock waves throughout the global economy in a trade
war with china how is russia dealing
with this well i think there it might be
losing some of the initial hopes they
had for trump as you said in the
introduction uh the amount of trouble he
keeps bringing on himself is quite
extraordinary that is with ukraine the
fact that he's back at supplying the
weapons intelligence uh and all of this
while we learned from new york times
that this war has effectively been an
american war run out of germany now of
course the negotiations aren't going
well they they're responding by threatening russia with sanctions and uh again sending more weapons and at the
same time you know the he has his
ambitions to ethnically cleanse gaza
he's gone to war against yemen the
russians are quite worried about what could happen in iran the consequ ences of going to war in iran it's it's it will be too unpredictable and the possible chaos will be too great and now of course it's going to take on a e an economic war with china it's yeah it's quite absurd i i i agree with what uh larry said i i think when we look at the economic warfare it's to a large extent it's a competition to manipulate or shift the the symmetry of dependence that is you know when you have two countries who are nterdependent you always have one side which is more
dependent on the other so if so ideally each country would like for everyone to be dependent on them while they reduce their dependence on others now you can
do many things to reduce your dependence you can have a lot of strategic autonomy which china does so that is very self-sufficient and it can you can also diversify your economic partnerships the problem for trump is that they don't really have the same um strategic autonomy uh they're not self-sufficient to this extent and also they're cutting themselves off from a lot of centers of
power in the world so they're not reducing the ability to diversify so if you look now at not just china but the
bricks countries which again russia's leaning heavily into now is you know they have all the natural resources to
do all the mining the processing they have all the industrial capabilities they have their own tech centers they have a huge market in terms of the population who wants to buy this uh theyhave they're setting up new  financial instruments uh so yeah across the board
bricks can be a very self-sufficient to grouping and uh and uh yeah why this is so absurd is again as larry suggested this is uh the the chinese can diversify away from the us i don't see the us being able to diversify away from china indeed even the rare earth met metal issues such as antimony is is is a is a key problem there's not enough of it and given that china has this and also almost completely dominates on the processing of it so it's uh i i just don't see how how china can be beat in this economic war and keep in mind that china has more than a tariff weapon they can begin to dump a lot of the us debts and they can cause a lot of problems not just as punitive or punishing action but indeed because they're fearful if you think that the adversary will start to seize your funds steal it like they did with russia the europeans as well by the way uh why why would you want to sit on this um i think it was kanes who made the who argued
once you know if someone own owes you $100 uh then uh they have a problem if they owe you a million then you have a problem because you might not get the money and i think this is what is concerning the chinese as well as the russians so uh so how do russia respond well i think we see this now they they don't believe anymore that the trump can deliver on a a peace deal which is largely the european's fault as well so the russians are now building up for a massive offensive to well solve things on the battlefield if there's no diplomatic path so a lot of things are going very wrong at the moment so having this economic war with china on top of all of these wars which he promised he wouldn't start it's uh it's just a huge mess i i don't understand what the logic is behind a lot of this sergey rabkov the deputy foreign minister of russia recently said that he's seen no indications that the united states is moving to end the ukraine conflict when trump was elected many people believed he was going to at least re in some of the wars that biden had launched essentially on multiple fronts i mean if you can say something good about the un us intelligence community is that they have stood firm for 20 well uh 20 22 years ago the iranian um supreme leader said no nukes we don't build nukes and in 2007 what uh three four years later the us intelligence community decided unanimously with high confidence that iran stopped working on a nuclear weapon right then at the end of 2003 and if further proof were needed that has been reaffirmed every year since including two weeks ago at the annual threat assessment saying that hami the supreme leader has not reauthorized the program that he killed 22 years ago well okay so iran is not working on a nuclear weapon so when netanyahu and trump and everybody and his brother and sister say we're going to make sure that iran doesn't doesn't
make a nuclear weapon what are they trying to do okay now um the name of the
game really is what netanyahu wanted trump to do and that was clear they met on monday okay netanyu wanted trump to bless sto voce
if necessary an attack on iran did he
get that no what did he get instead
we're going to start direct says trump
indirect say the iranian uh talks on this very issue uh in oman on saturday what does that mean well who's going to be led that's going to be
led by whit my personal guy says trump
not rubio or that guy dick tracy what is
it dick tracy head dick tracy head there no they
they're not going to do that so what's what's up here uh there's room for talks
here i think that somebody got to uh to trump and said "look you know did you know that the iranians have their own deterrent now did you know that they successfully hit many bases in in in israel uh did you know as much as you love israel it's going to be destroyed it's going to be destroyed you hear that mr trump it's going to be destroyed if you start a war if you let netanyahu start a war and you you help him what other things there there was some well there's a wisp in the wind here uh there
were reports reuters carried them two days ago that some of the armed militias some of the iranian supported people in iraq many of them like eight or 10 of them said you know we're going to hold off uh we might even disarm uh we don't want to pursue this anymore whoa is that a kind of an olive branch dished out by the israelians i don't know but it certainly is unique and it can be explained by circumstances but uh it seems to me that the iranians are
willing to deal too the only thing necessary is for trump to realize as i think he has that he's gotten very very bad cards not only on ukraine but on the middle east and that when witco gets to talk to the iranians they're going to
say "look we said indirect your president said direct they're going to be indirect." all right what do you got
now i think whit is going to be smart enough to find out what the israeli what the iranians really need and he'll be on the phone with trump i don't know if rubio or waltz or that other guy heads will be tuned in or not but that's what's happening and that's good that's good because whit has shown himself able to speak for trump he's he may not know much about iran everybody's make a big
deal of that he doesn't have to all he has to do is deal and he knows the terms that trump is willing to settle for so i
see a protracted period now several weeks at least a relative less anxiety with respect to whether trump is going to let himself be sucked in mousetrapped into supporting netanyahu in a war that he has lots of reasons to wage against iran with iran uh yeah if we if it requires military we're going to have military israel will obviously be very much involved in that he'll be the leader of that but nobody leads us we do what we want to do nobody leads us we do what we want to do after he just got through saying we'll let uh israel lead yes so he says so yeah that's why i said trump is all over the board so let's uh let's step back and look you know objectively at what's going on well the good news was trump's only demand the only thing he said that they wanted out of the negotiations was that iran can't have a nuke iran would go "great we don't have one." and we got russia and china to verify that but we will allow you the united states to come in and verify so basically trump's going to go back to accepting the old jcpoa uh which he he withdrew from now uh items to be negotiated in that are at what level of for peaceful use can uh iran enriched uranium and they're doing that collaboratively with russia as part of the strategic cooperation agreement that was signed on january 17th but uh iran's coming into these negotiations in a in a much stronger position based upon the meetings this week in moscow with the chinese and the russians you know they're when when iran sits down at the table it can pull him over his shoulder and said "i'd like you to meet my two brothers my big brothers." so iran's not going in there with an empty hand uh in in the past trump has intimated that he was going to demand that iran cut off all assistance to the houthis and hamas and hezbollah all of that's predicated on the assumption that there's a significant amount of assistance i would i would say that's questionable but let's just you know go with it that that would be one of the us demands uh it's not clear that uh iran will concede on that but the alliance that iran signed with that cooperative the strategic cooperative agreement on january 17th which the duma approved uh ratified this week uh now puts that you know that's that's envisioned at least a 20-year deal and and it is it's it's extremely important because it covers all aspects effects of both a military relationship that russia has with iran intelligence relationship diplomatic relationship and economic relationship most of all so the united states uh as you know has been pointed out by both glenn and ray you know donald trump's not holding any trump cards here uh he's in fact he may be able to come out and declare a victory i i think one one scenario i hope for is after the meeting they're going to say by god we we told those iranians what the deal was and that they've agreed they're not going to build a nuclear weapon well they'd
already agreed not to do that but trump gets to take credit for their agreement he can tout it as a diplomatic successnow i i've been guilty of being crude and vulgar sometime but you know last night uh at that republican fundraiser where he said was with respect to the 70 nations around the world that are trying to negotiate to not have the tariffs imposed they're kissing my ass he said now i guarantee you uh at least 80% if not a 100% of those countries that are lining up says trump claims to kiss his ass are not going out saying "man let me see if i can buy some chapstick so i can maintain this kind of relationship." i love kissing trump's ass i think he has
incentivized more countries to figure out how to join bricks to separate from this kind of us bullying and hgemonic imbeic imbeicility uh russia china and
iran are really moving into a global leadership role uh larry just mentioned the nuclear talks which have started
before donald trump can even uh meet with uh uh the uh iranian uh representatives so uh and this only touches the surface of the cooperation what do you make of of this development this trend and it seems like trump is worsening this trump is actually making this process accelerate yeah well these are three large giants on the eurasian continent now the a key logic for russia and china was that the the russians face nato led by the us on its western borders china faces the us off its coast on the east so they kind of had to have their backto back as a way of staying safe now it makes sense to pull in iran to some extent in into this and indeed you heard this coming from thran for a few years now that their main strategic
partnerships should be organized with
moscow and beijing as uh yeah this would
allow them to set up alternative economic institutions indeed this is why iran also has been embraced
now with and will gain access to the
shanghai cooperation organization as
well as brics so it also makes sense now
for the russians and the iranians to do
more more military cooperation
especially after uh the way they cooperated in syria and also iran's support during the ukraine war so
they're getting much uh yeah much closer
and it it just makes sense in order to have yeah collectively to be able to reduce dependence on on the west but also to build up um proper defense of
defense now this being said it's worth noting that if uh trump wants a political or a deal with the iranians
that russia could be an important partner because russia doesn't really want iran to have nuclear weapons either
neither does china so they could be important partners to to observe any agreement which is made but uh i think
the yeah the russians like as well as the chinese for sake they they look at this effort to renegotiate the jcpoa
with the iranians as being um yeah deeply flawed keep in mind that what is being asked now of iran is largely to give up its deterrent that is uh you know they arguing because as both ry and larry said there's no they don't have a nuclear weapon so what what is it that trump wants well he doesn't want them to be a threshold state so they have to eliminate their material capabilities they also want them to reduce their their their missiles the the distance they can reach uh they want them to cut support for yemen hezbollah hamas so effectively to give up its security and uh yeah hand it over to the united states and israel and hope that uh by subordinating self that uh
they won't do anything bad to iran and this is the main problem you can't really threaten someone to give up their deterrent because by threatening them you only make it clear why they need a deterrent i mean this should be common sense and uh so um no i i i think uh the yeah the partnership with china and russia it has it can work both ways on one hand if the us decides to increase sanctions or use military force then they can provide some form of support um but also if the us wants to might make a deal with iran it's it's not in russia's or china's interest to have um you know the to have china sorry to have iran close down important maritime transportation corridors and shut down effectively the global economy it's not there in their interest so uh they they can function as a partner for peace or they can if the us goes to war against
iran they would be yeah an an partner of iran instead so uh it's they do have an interesting role in this