Jayant Bhandari 印度沒有未來

Jayant Bhandari 印度沒有未來

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中英 賈楊特班達裏海外高印看印度：這個國家沒有未來Jayant Bhandari Indian looking at India: no future for this country

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrIelllFjM8

YouTube  2024年7月9日

問

你最初來自印度，你現在住在哪裏?

答

我主要在舊金山，我住在那裏。

問

我看過你的一些采訪，我看過你的一些采訪，你對印度的看法，所以告訴我一些關於印度文化、商業、這個國家商業方麵的情況，因為你知道，作為投資者，我們聽說了來自中國的重大轉變，你知道很多公司正在將製造業轉移到印度，告訴我們為什麽會這樣，告訴我們你對這種趨勢的看法？

答

總的來說，總有公司從中國轉移到印度，但幾乎沒有人真正完成這個過程，他們談論它，但他們做不到，他們很快受到傷害，他們意識到他們錯過了一些東西，他們改變了他們的行動速度非常快，所以顯然人們對印度抱有極大的熱情，現在國際媒體、很多基金、很多公司都認為印度是如今應該去的地方，因為他們認為印??度為他們提供了非常高的增長機會，而大多數人會受到嚴重傷害，他們會失去資金，他們會自食惡果，因為沒有什麽比在印度投資更好的了，我看到數十家公司在印度開設業務和辦事處，我也參與過其中的幾家，他們幾乎總是虧損，因為印度是一個極其困難的地方，出於許多原因，該國完全缺乏職業道德，技能的缺乏顯而易見，政府從最頂層到最底層都是貪婪和腐敗的，唯一有效的辦法是政府就是關係和金錢，呃，沒有基礎設施，基礎設施狀況很糟糕，他們應該建造大量的基礎設施，但後來橋梁倒塌，火車事故頻發，因為一切都有缺陷，50% 到 80% 的資金本應該投入基礎設施，卻流進了官僚和政客的口袋，所以我完全看不到那個國家的未來，布萊克，我發現現在這麽多人如此迷戀印度，這真的很有趣。

問

是的，所以你知道，我花了很多年時間，我們在香港有一個辦公室，我親眼目睹了中國過去 20 多年的發展，從投資的角度，通過市場觀察它，看到它的發展，那麽，你知道，兩者之間的脫節在哪裏中國和印度的相似之處是，它真的隻是從政治上層開始的，

答

你知道政府運作良好的方式是問題的征兆，真正的問題是印度人自己，正如你所看到的，這種脫節在 70 年代末 80 年代初開始出現在金融經濟方麵，當時印度的人均 GDP 可能高於中國，所以印度是當時更傾向於向印度靠攏的國家，當時印度人說英語，也聽得懂英語，而中國人當時真的不懂英語，所以世界在 80 年代初認為下一個新興市場將是印度，然後你看到了從 80 年代初到今天發生了什麽，中國人均經濟大約是印度的 5.5 倍，所以中國在過去三十年左右發展迅速，而印度卻未能嗯，現在任何意義上的中國都趕不上世界了，布萊克，說實話，誰拿中國和印度比較，誰就對這兩個國家一無所知，嗯，從印度的角度來看，中國是第一世界國家，嗯，中國有基礎設施，中國有大量高質量的高技能製造單位，那裏的人們有職業道德，我最近在中國待了大約兩個半星期，我每年都會去中國好幾次，我愛那個國家，我總是可以想象自己在中國生活，實際上，我實際上正在考慮每年在中國呆幾個月，而你可以給我十億美元，卻不能說服我住在印度，這就是印度的徹底地獄和洞穴，我用第二個詞，嗯，不隻是比喻，而是字麵意思，因為一半的印度人口實際上把露天用作廁所，所以這就是印度的情況是這樣的，你總是要問自己，為什麽印度未能從所有這些向中國轉讓的技術中獲益，為什麽印度完全未能從中獲益，除非你理解這一點，我再說一遍，理解為什麽印度在過去 30 年裏失敗了，如果你不能解釋為什麽印度在過去 30 年裏未能趕上中國， 實際上超過或打賭會比中國更好，你真的不明白印度的未來是什麽，

問

你的說法很迷人，所以我想問你，那麽你知道客觀地說，你認為印度還有未來嗎？根據你的觀點，在印度投資目前還有未來嗎？

答

所以我不投資印度，我曾經關注過一位基金經理的印度投資組合，我賣掉了那隻基金裏的所有東西，我賣掉了我在那個國家擁有的所有東西，我完全看不到印度的未來，印度在過去的近三四年五年裏一直停滯不前，如果你忽略他們一直在大規模建設基礎設施的事實，增加國內生產總值，而政府實際上卻陷入了巨額債務和基礎設施，而這些基礎設施實際上並沒有為公民創造經濟價值，所以如果你把所有這些加在一起，印度在過去三年裏實際上一直停滯不前四五年了，我完全看不出印度會做得更好的理由，事實上，我有理由相信印度正在成為下一個巴基斯坦，所以忘掉中國吧，印度正在成為下一個巴基斯坦，也就是說，它現在正走向內爆，如果你願意的話，我可以很高興地向你解釋為什麽國際媒體如此興奮，但事實是，任何客觀地走在印度街頭的人都知道，印度沒有未來，除非這個人政治正確，在這種情況下，他無法把這些點聯係起來，即使他把這些點聯係起來，他也拒絕在回到西方後發表他的觀點，因為他不想抱怨世界上最大的民主國家，也不想抱怨棕色人種

well and so you originally from India
and and where do you where do you reside
nowadays well I'm mostly in San
Francisco that's where my I live in okay
all right and and um you you know I've
seen some of your interviews and I I've
seen some of your interviews into your
opinions about India so tell me a little
bit about India the culture the business
uh business side of the the country
because you know as in investors we've
heard this big shift from from China and
uh you know a lot of companies are
moving manufacturing over to India tell
us why that is and tell us what your
opinion is of that as a as a trend as a
whole well there are always companies
moving shifting from China to India but
hardly anyone ever actually completes
the process they talk about it but they
don't do it when they do it they get
hurt very quickly and they realize that
there's something that they missed out
on and they revers their action very
quickly as well so there is clearly a
huge amount of euphoria about India
right now the international media a lot
of funds a lot of companies think that
India is the place to move to these days
because they think India offers them a
very high growth rate opportunity and
most of these people will get bad hurt
they will lose their monies and they
they will burn themselves because
there's nothing like investing in India
I have seen tens and tens of companies
opening their operations and offices uh
in India and I have been involved in a
few of those and virtually always they
lose money because India is an
extraordinarily difficult Place uh from
many for many many reasons there is a
complete lack of work ethic in that
country skills are conspicuous by their
absence U the government is uh from the
very top the very very top to the very
very bottom um utterly venal and corrupt
the only thing that works in the
government is connections and money uh
there is no infrastruct infrastructure
is in a horrible shape they are
supposedly constructing a huge amount of
infrastructure but then bridges are
falling apart train accident are
happening because everything has a
shorty equality with 50 to 80% of the
money that was that is supposed to go
into the infrastructure going into the
back pocket of bureaucrats and
politicians so the the I see absolutely
no future in that country and I find it
truly amusing Blake that so many people
are so enamored by India these days yeah
so you know I I I I spent a many years
um we had an office in in in Hong Kong
and I got to watch single-handedly or
personally rather uh you know the the
evolution of China over the last 20
years plus um from a investment
standpoint from watching it uh via the
markets and seeing it evolve so where is
the disconnect between you know the the
the the parallels between China and and
India is it really it just starts from
the top politically you know the way
that the government has
run well government is a symptom of the
problem the real problem is Indians
themselves um and the disconnect as you
can see it started happening in
financial economic terms in the in the
late 70s early 80s when uh GDP of GDP
per capita of India was likely higher
than that of China so India was the
country to move to those days a lot more
Indians spoke English and understood
English those days Chinese did not
really understand English at that point
of time so the world thought in um early
80s that the next Emerging Market would
be India uh and then you saw what
happened U from early 80s to today
Chinese economy on per capita basis is
about 5.5 times that of India so China
has grown rapidly over the last three
decades or so whereas India has failed
to um to catch up with China in any
sense of the world now anyone Blake to
be very honest who Compares China with
India is clueless about the two
countries uh China is a first world
country when you look at it from the
perspective of India um China has
infrastructure China has a massive good
quality High Skilled Manufacturing units
it has people who have work ethic and I
have recently been in China for about
two and a half weeks and I go multiple
times a year to China I love that
country and I can always um imagine
living myself in China actually I was
I'm actually thinking of spending a
couple of months every year in China
whereas you can give me a billion
dollars and cannot convince me to live
in India that is how utterly
um utter hellhole and a hole India
is and I'm using the second word uh not
just figuratively but literally because
half of the Indian population actually
uses the open as toilets so that's the
the kind of U situation India has you
always have to ask yourself why did
India fail to um benefit from all these
lwh hanging fruit all the technology
transfer that was happening to China why
did India completely fail to benefit
from it and unless you have understood
that and and I repeat understand why
India failed in the last 30 years and if
you cannot explain why India failed in
the last 30 years to catch up with China
or actually exceed or bet be better than
China you don't really understand what
the future is for for for India that is
uh fascinating so I I'm G to ask you
then um you know
objectively uh do do you think there is
any future for India and investment in
India at this point in time based on
your views so I don't invest in India I
I used to follow the Indian portfolio of
a of a fund manager at one point of time
and I sold everything in that fund I
sold I I sold everything I owned in that
country I see absolutely no future of
India I India has been stagnating for
the last Almost 3 four five years uh if
you ignore
the if you ignore the fact that they
have been building infrastructure at a
massive Pace adding to the GDP while the
government is actually getting into into
massive debt and infrastructure that
actually does not produce economic value
for the citizenry so if you add all
these things together India is actually
stagnating for the last three four five
years and I see absolutely no reason why
India will do better in fact I'm
reasonably confident that India is
becoming the next Pakistan so forget
about China India is becoming the next
Pakistan which is that it is marching
towards an implosion now if you want I
can happily explain to you why there's
so much Euphoria in the international
media but the fact remains that anyone
who has objectively walked the street in
India knows that India has no future ex
except if that person is politically
correct in which case he fails to
connect the dots and if even if he
connects the dots refuses to uh give his
views after returning to the West
because he does not want to be
complaining about the biggest democracy
in the world and complain about brown
people