In this section of the YouTube video titled "第3次巨變(Sea Change)已經開始! 美聯儲將會加息到7%! 40年的低息環境已經終結! 投資大師霍華德馬克思(Howard Marks)對投資者的建議! 2024如何投資?【艾財說083】,"
the host, Alex, discusses the current investment climate and new recommended strategies from renowned investor Howard Marks, who believes that the giant variable, or the third cycle of economic change, has already begun. The low-interest rate environment has ended, and fast-paced deregulation initiated by Paul Volcker, the former head of the Federal Reserve, has led to a 40-year cycle. The speaker argues that businesses and governments should manage their debt levels and considers the potential risks associated with the US economy's policies, including inflation and the possibility of a Taiwanese "red line" scenario. The investment advice provided by Marks recommends investing in different types of assets, such as debt securities, due to the third wave of economic change. However, the speaker also highlights the risks associated with the short-term debt market. The video emphasizes the impact of psychology and human behavior on the stock market, and the speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to subscribe and like their channel.
00:00:00 In this section of a YouTube video titled "第3次巨變(Sea Change)已經開始! 美聯儲將會加息到7%! 40年的低息環境已經終結! 投資大師霍華德馬克思(Howard Marks)對投資者的建議! 2024如何投資?【艾財說083】", the host, Alex, discusses the current investment climate and the new recommended strategies from renowned investor Howard Marks. He believes that the giant variable, or the third cycle of economic change, has already begun, and all past investment strategies are no longer applicable. Marks discussed his company's newest investment advice, which warns of the 40-year low-interest rate cycle that has passed and the fast-paced deregulation initiated by Paul Volker, the former head of the Federal Reserve. Some of the interviewers, including Elon Musk, are already investing in the Bitcoin network and are excited about the industry's future prospects. The host of the video also mentions historical data, such as increased lending activity driving asset prices and financial markets upward.
00:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the third sea change, which is the end of the low-interest environment and the likely rise in interest rates. According to the speaker, this will have a significant impact on businesses and individuals, leading to higher costs, reduced lending, and lower profitability. The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing and adjusting investment strategies in this new environment. The speaker also discusses the impact of the low-interest environment on government and enterprise debt. Many businesses and the government have accumulated significant debt over time, which can lead to financial collapse if it becomes difficult to repay when faced with rising interest rates. In this regard, the speaker believes that businesses and governments should take proactive steps to manage their debt levels to mitigate the risk of bankruptcy.
00:10:00 This section discusses the current status of the US economy and the potential risks associated with its policies. The speaker argues that the US can print more money without any limits, and that this will continue to inflate the dollar and require the government to continue investing heavily in Ukraine and Israel. The speaker also mentions the possibility of a Taiwanese "red line" scenario, which could accelerate the termination of currency and debt management. Regarding investment advice, the speaker mentions that Marks recently recommended a change in investment strategy, as we are now in the third wave of economic change. He suggests that investors must adapt to the new market conditions and invest in different types of assets, such as debt securities, with higher returns and lower volatility. The speaker also highlights the risks associated with the short-term debt market, which can experience significant fluctuations in value, making long-term investments challenging.
00:15:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the impact of psychology and human behavior on the stock market. They argue that the short-term fluctuations of the stock market are largely influenced by people's reactions to news, and that their response to positive news may not necessarily be to buy stocks, but to sell them instead. The speaker suggests that long-term trends in the stock market are related to economic, enterprise, and operational management, among other factors. The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to subscribe and like their channel.
當然,所有這一切都在過去一年左右的時間裏發生轉變。最重要的是,2021年初通脹開始抬升,當時剛剛解除隔離,人們擁有大量的資金(居家所積累的儲蓄,包括大規模新冠疫情紓困計劃派發的資金),但商品和服務非常有限(因為製造業和運輸業重啟狀況不平衡導致供應受阻)。美聯儲認為通貨膨脹是"暫時現象",因此繼續實施低利率和量化寬鬆政策,放鬆銀根。這些政策進一步刺激了需求(尤其是對住房的需求),而當時根本不需要刺激。隨著時間的推移,2021年通脹逐漸惡化,到年末時,美聯儲終於意識到通脹可能難以在短期內緩解。因此,美聯儲11月份開始減少購債規模,並於2022年3月開始加息,開啟了有史以來最快的加息周期之一。在2021年大部分時間裏,股市未受通脹和加息的影響,但在接近年底時開始下跌。從那時起,事情便按照可預測的路徑發展。正如我在備忘錄《投資心理學》(On the Couch)(2016年1月)中寫道,在現實世界中,事物一般在"相當好"與"沒有那麽好"之間搖擺。但在投資界,人們的感知往往在"完美無瑕"與"絕望透頂"之間搖擺,如同以前被視為市場常態的事件會被解讀為災難性事件。