2023 年亞洲及太平洋地區的民主展望

2023 年亞洲及太平洋地區的民主展望

2023國際民主與選舉學院，瑞典斯德哥爾摩

編輯安德魯·羅伯遜（Andrew Robertson）

https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/sites/default/files/2023-02/democracy-in-asia-and-the%20pacific-outlook-2023.pdf 討論文件 1/2023 摘要 2023 年亞洲及太平洋地區民主的六大趨勢 2022 年 12 月 5 日至 6 日，國際 IDEA 聚集了 30 名民主、反腐敗和人權領域的頂尖專家，在印度尼西亞巴厘島舉行首屆亞洲及太平洋民主展望論壇。 與會者代表來自 12 個國家的 23 個機構和組織，在七場專題會議中討論了亞太地區民主的主要趨勢。 這些會議之前是通過與幾位民主和人權專家的一輪磋商和訪談確定的。 會議——關於人權； 區域合作； 氣候變化； 中國; 虛假信息； 選舉威權主義和軍事化； 和政治金融——試圖評估該地區的民主現狀並預測來年的決定因素。 本文是論壇與會者的討論、爭論和建議的總結。 它的目的是將這些貢獻和得出的結論提煉成一個簡潔的文件。 該文本反映了匯集的專業知識，旨在集中和指導對 2023 年民主的進一步討論和預測，並為理解整個地區的積極和消極趨勢提供一個共同框架。 從采訪和討論中，可以看出六個交叉趨勢：政治仍然是個人致富的途徑，繼續激勵政治和軍事精英通過壓製人民權利來維持權力。 Covid-19 的揮之不去的影響包括政治空間軍事化的加劇 獲得權力就意味著獲得資源和財富。 財富和權力的集中繼續阻礙地區政治進程，並將仍然是理解未來幾年政治發展的基礎。 許多國家武裝部隊持續幹預政治也部分是出於同樣的動力； 緬甸、巴基斯坦和泰國就是明顯的例子。 通過控製或至少顯著影響政治，武裝部隊可以確保獲得國家資源，在某些情況下還可以為領導人物獲取私人財富。 結果，政治精英試圖扭曲和繞過金融監管，商業精英通過捐贈和合同影響政治進程，國家資源因嚴重腐敗而大量減少。 獲取資源的不平等會導致侵犯人權，並且往往是更加民主的政治的根本障礙。 2. G20和APEC會議的經驗教訓可以重振亞太地區的多邊主義 2022 年，該地區在國際舞台上獲得了前所未有的關注度，特別是金邊舉行的東盟（東南亞國家聯盟）峰會、巴厘島 G20 峰會和曼穀 APEC（亞太經合組織）會議（均於 2022 年 11 月舉行） 。 在印度尼西亞的精心推動下，二十國集團成功就烏克蘭戰爭達成了共同宣言，並取得了一些切實成果，例如迄今為止最大的氣候融資協議。 同樣，作為東盟主席國，印度尼西亞通過設立東盟緬甸問題特使辦公室（Strangio 2023），加強了圍繞緬甸的協調努力。 同樣，包括澳大利亞、印度、日本和美國在內的新印太四邊對話正在獲得關注，並有助於將印太地區定義為關鍵的地緣政治區域。 此外，印度擔任 2023 年 G20 主席國，仍將重點放在亞太地區。 然而，亞太地區缺乏以民主為核心的區域合作機製，阻礙了民主發展和民主規範的擴散。 該地區將從擁有幾個可以維護民主標準並向獨裁政府施加壓力的區域機構中受益匪淺——歐洲委員會和美洲民主憲章（美洲國家組織，n.d.）將是其他背景下的有用模式。 來年，隨著東盟和南亞區域合作聯盟等組織麵臨更大的壓力，要求其在麵對侵犯人權（暴行）和破壞人權的行為時更加直言不諱，此類機製的缺乏可能會變得更加引人注目。 民主規範。 例如，到 2023 年，東盟將麵臨緬甸軍政府選舉的挑戰，而沒有達到堅定和民主答案所需的協調水平。 3. 武器化的虛假信息和數字鎮壓繼續侵蝕民主政治，既維持獨裁政權的掌權，又汙染民主國家的信息環境 數字鎮壓的興起和虛假信息的使用日益挑戰亞太地區的民主。 菲律賓 2022 年的選舉就是一個鮮明的例子。 在那裏，欺騙性敘述和信息的協調湧入全麵汙染了人們賴以做出明智決策的信息環境。 更多國家可能會繼續快速鎮壓媒體和記者以及攻擊言論自由。 這些可能采取日益嚴厲的有關安全、數據、假新聞或隱私法（或濫用現有立法）的立法或針對公眾參與的戰略訴訟（SLAAP）的形式。 4. 法治而非法治仍然是非自由勢力壓製人權的首選工具 該地區許多國家的體製是法治而不是法治。 其中包括嚴格執行嚴厲的法律，例如泰國的冒犯君主法或巴基斯坦和孟加拉國的褻瀆法，到利用反腐敗框架起訴反對派領導人和鎮壓民間社會組織。 限製私人公民和組織在線行為的明確壓製性立法的激增——例如孟加拉國的《數字安全法案》、哈薩克斯坦的《虛假信息法案》和新加坡的《防止網絡虛假信息和操縱法案》等——表明這一趨勢將 到2023年才會鞏固。 5. 非自由、民族主義和本土主義政策繼續滲透到亞太地區，而這種政策往往是由以宗教或種族為基礎的多數主義推動的 亞太地區的政黨體係日益受到民族主義勢力的主導，這些勢力利用原教旨主義和不寬容的言論來獲取權力。 本土主義和民族主義政治危及民主的基礎，剝奪了數百萬公民的民主權利，並質疑民主政治最重要的原則之一：經濟、社會和政治平等（International IDEA 2022）。 這也是以“國家”或多數利益為幌子的腐敗行為的快速通道。 這種趨勢有多種形式，從中亞民族主義驅動的軍事對抗，到印度尼西亞和馬來西亞的政治伊斯蘭化，再到緬甸和印度對穆斯林少數民族的攻擊。 即使在中國這樣的獨裁國家，外交政策也部分受到民眾民族主義壓力的驅動。 包容性政治力量與民族主義力量之間，和/或政治化的民族或宗教團體之間的對抗可能會定義未來幾年亞太地區的政治。 6. 青年參政是亞太地區捍衛和推進民主的一線希望 年輕人正在成為對抗亞太地區消極民主前景的強大力量。 這方麵的例子可以從斯裏蘭卡和泰國青年驅動的行動主義，以及中亞和巴基斯坦應對氣候變化的青年領導力中看到。 一些年輕人正在馬來西亞、尼泊爾和菲律賓競選公職，這體現了他們這一代人的重要性和政治影響力與日俱增。 2023年，年輕人將極大地影響孟加拉國、印度、印度尼西亞、巴基斯坦和泰國的選舉。 他們日益成為抵禦虛假信息和民族主義的主要堡壘。 結論 本討論文件旨在根據專家磋商和對話，預測 2023 年亞太地區民主健康狀況的最重要趨勢。 2023 年標誌著決定性且可能不穩定的選舉浪潮的開始，這場選舉將在不久的將來決定該地區的大部分政治。 從 5 月份的泰國開始，該地區一些人口最多、經濟最強大的國家將在 2023 年和 2024 年經曆緊張的選舉進程。其中包括孟加拉國、柬埔寨、印度尼西亞、哈薩克斯坦、巴基斯坦、新加坡、斯裏蘭卡，以及最大的單一選舉國 迄今為止的曆史進程，印度2024年大選。 緬甸軍政府還將在 2023 年上演虛假選舉進程，以期進一步獲得國際認可。 所有這些都將在通脹上升、經濟停滯和可能的全球衰退的情況下發生。 該地區的經濟強國中國也顯示出令人擔憂的經濟信號。 通貨膨脹和經濟衰退，加上氣候變化引發的災難和食品供應鏈的脆弱性（主要是由於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭），勾畫出 2023 年亞太地區的動蕩局麵。 這些都是對民主基礎已經搖搖欲墜的地區的壓力測試。 亞洲和太平洋地區本土主義和反自由主義言論有所增加，這些言論是通過虛假信息傳播的，在許多情況下還得到了軍方的縱容——盡管並非總是如此。 通常，會通過量身定製的立法，為政府提供限製基本自由的鎮壓工具，並在必要時將司法部門武器化。 缺乏民主合作與協調的區域工具以及不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢加劇了該地區的不穩定。 然而，它也是一些最進步的民主國家和一些最強大的民主運動的所在地。 事實證明，該國的年輕人是一股不可忽視的力量，他們大步進入正式政治（如尼泊爾或馬來西亞），並領導從中亞到太平洋地區的民主鬥爭。 民主的希望寄托在他們身上。 DEMOCRACY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC OUTLOOK 2023 https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/sites/default/files/2023-02/democracy-in-asia-and-the%20pacific-outlook-2023.pdf Discussion Paper 1/2023 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SIX TRENDS DEFINING DEMOCRACY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC IN 2023  On 5–6 December 2022, International IDEA gathered 30 leading experts on democracy, anti-corruption and human rights in Bali, Indonesia, at the inaugural Democracy in Asia and the Pacific Outlook Forum. Representing 23 institutions and organizations from 12 countries, attendees discussed key trends in democracy in the Asia and the Pacific region over the course of seven topical sessions. These sessions were previously defined by a round of consultations and interviews with several experts on democracy and human rights. The sessions—on human rights; regional cooperation; climate change; China; disinformation; electoral authoritarianism and militarization; and political finance—attempted to take stock of the current state of democracy in the region and forecast the determining factors in the year to come. This Paper is a summary of the discussions, arguments and proposals made by attendees at the Forum. It aims to distil these contributions and resulting conclusions into a single, concise document. Reflecting the assembled expertise, the text aims to focus and guide further discussions and forecasting on democracy in 2023, and to provide a common framework for understanding positive and negative trends across the region.  Out of the interviews and the discussion, six crosscutting trends can be discerned:Politics remains a pathway to personal enrichment, continuing to motivate political and military elites to maintain power by suppressing people’s rights. The lingering effects of Covid-19 include openings for the increased militarization of political spaces Access to power comes with access to resources and enrichment. Concentrations of wealth and power continue to counteract regional political processes and will remain fundamental for understanding political developments in the coming years. The continued interference of the armed forces in politics in many countries is also partly driven by the same dynamic; Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand are clear examples. Through controlling, or at least notably influencing, politics, the armed forces secure access to state resources, and in some cases private wealth for leading figures. As a consequence, political elites seek to twist and bypass financial regulations, business elites influence the political process through donations and contracts, and state resources are decimated through grand corruption. Unequal access to resources drives human rights abuses and is often the fundamental barrier to more democratic politics. 2. Lessons from the G20 and APEC conferences could reinvigorate multilateralism in Asia and the Pacific The region has been provided with unprecedented visibility on the international stage in 2022, especially with the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit in Phnom Penh, G20 in Bali and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) in Bangkok (all November 2022). The G20, masterfully driven by Indonesia, managed to achieve both a common declaration on the war in Ukraine and some tangible results—such as the largest climate finance deal to date. In that same line Indonesia, as chair of ASEAN, has stepped up coordination efforts around Myanmar with the creation of the office of ASEAN’s special envoy (Strangio 2023) on Myanmar. Equally, the new IndoPacific Quadrilateral Dialogue that includes Australia, India, Japan and the United States is gaining traction, and helping the definition of the Indo-Pacific as a key geopolitical area. In addition, for 2023 India holds the chair of the G20, maintaining the focus on Asia and the Pacific. Yet, Asia and the Pacific lacks a regional cooperation mechanism that is democratic at its core, which hinders democratic development and the proliferation of democratic norms. The region would greatly benefit from having several regional bodies that could maintain democratic standards and exert pressure on autocratizing governments—the Council of Europe and the Inter-American Democratic Charter (OAS n.d.) would be useful models from other contexts. In the coming year, the lack of such mechanisms will likely become more notable as pressure increases on organizations such as ASEAN and SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) to become more vocal in the face of human rights violations (atrocities) and breaking of democratic norms. In 2023, for instance, ASEAN will face the challenge of the Myanmar junta's elections without the level of coordination needed for a firm and democratic answer. 3. Weaponized disinformation and digital repression continue to erode democratic politics, both maintaining authoritarian regimes in power and contaminating the information environment in democracies The rise of digital repression and the use of disinformation is increasingly challenging democracy in the Asia Pacific region. The 2022 elections in the Philippines is a stark case. There, a coordinated influx of deceptive narratives and messages comprehensively contaminated the information environment that people relied on to make informed decisions. It is likely that repression of media outlets and journalists, as well as attacks on freedom of expression, will continue apace in more countries. These may take the form of increasingly draconian legislation concerning security, data, fake news or privacy laws (or the misuse of existing legislation thereof) or strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAAPs).  4. Rule by law instead of rule of law remains a favoured tool of illiberal forces repressing human rights In many countries in the region, the system is rule by law rather than rule of law. This ranges from the strict application of draconian laws, such as lèse-majesté in Thailand or blasphemy laws in Pakistan and Bangladesh, to the use of anti-corruption frameworks to prosecute opposition leaders and crack down on civil society organizations. The proliferation of explicitly repressive legislation that curtails the online conduct of private citizens and organizations—such as the Digital Security Act in Bangladesh, the False Information Bill in Kazakhstan and the Singaporean Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act, among others—indicates this trend will only solidify in 2023.  5. Illiberal, nationalistic and nativist policies continue to permeate Asia and the Pacific, often fuelled by majoritarianism anchored in religion or ethnicity Party systems across Asia and the Pacific are increasingly dominated by ethnic nationalistic forces that wield fundamentalist and intolerant rhetoric to achieve power. Nativist and nationalist politics endanger the very foundation of democracy, depriving millions of citizens of their democratic rights and questioning one of the most important principles of democratic politics: economic, social and political equality (International IDEA 2022). It is also a fast track to corrupt practices disguised under appeals to the ‘national’ or majority interest. The tendency takes diverse forms, ranging from nationalistdriven military confrontations in Central Asia, to Islamization of politics in Indonesia and Malaysia, to attacks on Muslim minorities in Myanmar and India. Even in authoritarian states such as China, foreign policy is driven in part by popular nationalist pressure. Confrontations between inclusive political forces and ethnonationalist ones, and/or between politicized ethnic or religious groups might define politics in Asia and the Pacific in the years to come. 6. Youth in politics as the sliver of hope for defending and advancing democracy in Asia and the Pacific  Young people are becoming a powerful countervailing force against the negative outlook for democracy in Asia and the Pacific. Examples of this can be seen in youth-driven activism in Sri Lanka and Thailand, as well as youth leadership in the fight against climate change in Central Asia and Pakistan. Some young people are running for office in Malaysia, Nepal and the Philippines, exemplifying the increasing importance and political influence of their generation. In 2023, young people will greatly influence elections in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Thailand. They are increasingly acting as the main bulwark against disinformation and ethnonationalism. CONCLUSION This Discussion Paper has aimed to forecast the most important trends that will define the health of democracy in Asia and the Pacific in 2023, based on expert consultations and dialogue.  The year 2023 marks the beginning of a decisive and potentially volatile wave of elections that will define much of the region’s politics in the near future. Starting with Thailand in May, some of the most populous and economically powerful countries in the region will undergo tense electoral processes in 2023 and 2024. These include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and the single biggest electoral process in history to date, India’s 2024 election. The Myanmar junta will also stage its bogus electoral process in 2023 with the aim of gaining further international recognition. All these will take place amid rising inflation, economic stagnation and a possible global recession. The economic powerhouse of the region, China, is also showing worrying economic signals. Inflation and recession, in addition to climate-change-induced disasters and the vulnerability of the food supply chain—mostly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine—sketch a volatile scenario for Asia and the Pacific in 2023.  These are stress-tests for a region whose democratic foundations are already shaky. Asia and the Pacific is seeing a rise in nativist and illiberal rhetoric, fed through disinformation and in many cases with the connivance of the military— although not always. More often than not, tailor-made legislation is passed to provide governments with repressive tools to restrict fundamental freedoms, weaponizing the judiciary when necessary. Lack of regional instruments of democratic cooperation and coordination and rising geopolitical tensions add to the instability of the region. Yet it is also home to some of the most progressive democracies and some of the most powerful democratic movements. Its young people are proving to be a force to be reckoned with, making strides into formal politics (as in Nepal or Malaysia) as well as leading struggles for democracy from Central Asia to the Pacific. Hope for democracy rests on them.