奧巴馬顧問 三年後再來 我相信中國會繼續繁榮

三年後再來到中國，我相信這裏會繼續繁榮

STEVEN RATTNER 2023年6月1日 

這是我三年多來第一次來中國，一覺醒來，看到北京一反常態的蔚藍天空。連翹和櫻花開得正盛，整座城市熠熠生輝。

在我看來，這至少是對我今春為期一周訪華行程部分內容的一種隱喻。在許多層麵上，中國又回來了。辦公室裏擠滿了員工，投入到通常漫長的一天。高管們大多對自己的業務表示樂觀。一批令人興奮的初創企業源源不斷湧現，表明中國將繼續成為創新領域的領導者。在過去的許多次訪問中，那種讓我興奮的能量和動力豐富而充足。

是的，中國麵臨著經濟挑戰，特別是習近平主席仍然致力於保持國家向市場經濟的進展。通常，他似乎更強調控製，而不是增長。我負責監督在中國的重大投資，這些信號令人擔憂。

然而，盡管西方媒體表現出越來越多的懷疑，我相信中國將繼續繁榮。作為我們最大的戰略對手，它將繼續利用這種繁榮來鞏固自己在一係列問題上的強硬姿態，從南海到間諜氣球，乃至不公平的貿易行為。

管中國對新冠的應對顯得很拙劣，尤其是大規模的封鎖，但中國的經濟表現遠遠好於我們。從2020年初到去年年底，中國經濟經通脹調整後累計增長14%，而我國經濟增長不到6%。

今年中國經濟增長預期為5.2%，而我們預計為1.6%。當我們與4%以上的頑固通貨膨脹率作鬥爭時，中國的物價今年很可能隻會上漲2%。因此，它的利率保持在低位，這有助於鼓勵投資。

平心而論，中國的疫情複蘇勢頭弱於許多人的預期。它的失業問題也很嚴重：上個月，在16歲至24歲的青年失業率達到20.4%。這在很大程度上是因為經濟的增長速度還不足以消化每年進入勞動力市場的約1000萬大學畢業生。

在我訪問期間，能感到中國官員似乎在極力表示歡迎。在類似達沃斯的中國發展高層論壇上，美國參會者寥寥無幾，但歐洲商界領袖雲集。中國官員宣讀了事先精心準備好的發言稿，不斷強調他們對健全經濟政策的承諾，以及對外國投資和監管改革的開放態度。

他們的積極掩蓋了明顯的緊張氣氛。當我和團隊拜訪投資者和商人時，幾乎每次都會提到中國著名投資銀行家包凡失蹤的事，有時是我們提出的，有時是我們的中國同行提出的——他們是在辯解。中國的安保工作一向很嚴密，這次似乎更嚴密了。我對無處不在的中國監控有了更多的了解，到處都有攝像頭和麵部識別技術。就算乘坐短途火車，出入車站時也需要出示護照並進行掃描。

與過去相比，中國的投資者和企業家更加仔細地注意和關注政府發出的每一個信號，並擔心習近平可能會突然宣布對民營部門再來一次反複無常、出人意料的幹預。淡化創辦消費互聯網平台的重要性；對能源轉型和人工智能等新興產業的投資似乎成了優先事項。

至少在其中一些領域，中國已經取得了顯著成功。它占到全球77%的電池產能，去年全球近60%的電動汽車銷量來自中國。盡管美國征收關稅，但中國生產的太陽能電池板占全球的80%以上。

過了幾天，北京的天空又恢複了慣常灰蒙蒙的樣子，而我最初對2023年的中國持有的樂觀情緒也開始黯淡了一些。在我一直感受到的中國自信之下，我也體會到一定程度的不確定性，這主要是由於許多中國人感到來自華盛頓的敵意，反過來這又導致了一些中國人對美國的反感。

隨著習近平強調中國是一個自主的超級大國，中國消費者的喜好似乎正在發生變化。過去，他們青睞從耐克運動鞋到寶馬汽車等外國大牌。如今，他們正轉向安踏運動鞋和比亞迪汽車等本土品牌。

我在中國的會麵通常以我和我的團隊發問為主。然而在這次訪問中，我們的中國同行經常反過來——至少是一度如此——問我們，美國在台灣和潛在的投資限製等問題上可能會做些什麽。一些人宣稱，中國是美國強權的無辜受害者。

這些微妙的差異在很大程度上仍是細枝末節；至少從我經曆的互動來看，中國商界仍然渴望美國的投資，並繼續與我們進行貿易。

盡管如此，特朗普總統和拜登總統實施的貿易限製措施已經產生了明顯的影響。從家具到消費電子產品，對於那些美國征收25%關稅的商品，中國的出口比2017年下降了20%以上。

限製向中國出售敏感先進技術也造成了損失。中國專家承認，禁止購買最先進的半導體將阻礙中國向人工智能前沿進軍。

值得讚揚的是，除了強硬，拜登政府還伸出了橄欖枝。美國財政部長耶倫在最近一次經過了認真思考的演講中，呼籲與中國進行“建設性接觸”——實際上是試圖實現雙贏。

這是一個雄心勃勃的目標，要實現這個目標，最好的辦法是把我們自己的事情處理好。中國已經證明，它可以繼續以比我們更快的速度增長。我們需要通過一些舉措來提高我們的增長率，比如解決我們不明智的巨額預算赤字和工業設施建設方麵的僵化規定，從而在競爭中超越中國。

我們應該通過增加STEM畢業生來支持我們的人力資本，以便我們能夠保持技術優勢，並通過調整移民政策來吸引世界各地的人才，並將我們最有前途的外國學生留下來。

最重要的是，我們不應該自欺欺人地幻想中國會被自己的重量壓垮。對美國和它的對手來說，問題是這種對抗是否一定是破壞性的，抑或一個更加繁榮、彼此合作的未來仍然可能。

一個美國不理解的“原版中國”  2023年5月18日

中國真的想要取代美國嗎 2023年5月5日

中美關係究竟哪裏出了問題？2023年4月18日

為什麽“中國金融末日”沒有成為現實2023年3月27日

Steven Rattner是Willett Advisors的主席和首席執行官，曾擔任奧巴馬政府財務部的顧問。歡迎從他的個人網站stevenrattner.com獲取他的最新文章並在Twitter和Facebook上關注他。

翻譯：紐約時報中文網

 

I Went to China for the First Time in 3 Years, and I Saw Just How Formidable It Is

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/opinion/china-economy-growth-covid.html?_ga=2.9291697.568015976.1687105552-1104406257.1683519853 

By Steven Rattner  GUEST ESSAY May 31, 2023

Mr. Rattner was a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.

On my first trip to China in more than three years, I awoke to an uncharacteristically brilliant blue Beijing sky. The forsythia and cherry trees were in full bloom, and the city was sparkling.

That, for me, proved to be a metaphor for at least part of my weeklong visit this spring. On many levels, China is back. Offices were filled with workers putting in their typically long days. Executives mostly radiated optimism about their businesses. A robust pipeline of exciting start-ups suggested China will continue to be a leader in innovation. And the energy and drive that excited me on my many past visits were abundant.

Yes, China has its share of economic challenges, particularly how much President Xi Jinping remains committed to maintaining the country’s progress toward a market economy. Often he seems to put more emphasis on control than on growth. I oversee significant investments in China, and these signals are a cause of concern.

Yet while the Western press displays increasing skepticism, I believe China will continue to prosper. And as our biggest strategic rival, it will continue to use that prosperity to anchor its assertiveness on issues from the South China Sea to spy balloons and unfair trade practices.

Despite its ham-handed Covid response — particularly the extensive lockdowns — China’s economic performance has been far superior to our own. From the beginning of 2020 until the end of last year, China’s economy grew a cumulative 14 percent after adjusting for inflation, while ours has expanded by less than 6 percent.

Growth is projected to reach 5.2 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent for us. And while we battle an inflation rate stubbornly above 4 percent, China’s prices will most likely rise by just 2 percent this year. As a consequence, interest rates remain low, helping encourage investment.

To be sure, China’s rebound from Covid has been weaker than many expected. And the country has a significant jobless problem: 20.4 percent of people ages 16 to 24 looking for a job were out of work last month. Much of that stems from an economy that hasn’t quite revved up enough to absorb all of the roughly 10 million newly minted college graduates who enter the work force each year.

During my visit, Chinese officials took what felt like special pains to be welcoming. At the Davos-like China Development Forum, where American attendance was spotty but European business leaders were in abundance, Chinese officials read carefully scripted remarks, unfailingly emphasizing their commitment to sound economic policies as well as their openness to foreign investment and regulatory reforms.

Their positivity belied the evident tenseness. As my team and I visited with investors and businessmen, the disappearance of the prominent Chinese investment banker Bao Fan came up at almost every meeting, sometimes brought up by us, sometimes — defensively — by our Chinese counterparts. Security in China, always tight, seemed even tighter. I felt more aware of the omnipresent Chinese surveillance, with cameras and facial recognition technology everywhere. Just taking a short train ride required passports to be shown and scanned, both on entry and on exiting.

More than in the past, Chinese investors and entrepreneurs are carefully noting — and following — every signal from the government and worrying that Mr. Xi might suddenly announce another capricious and unexpected intervention into the private sector. Starting consumer internet platforms has been de-emphasized; investment in new industries such as energy transition and artificial intelligence appears to be the priority.

In at least some of these areas, China has achieved notable success. It controls 77 percent of the world’s battery manufacturing capacity, and last year nearly 60 percent of global electric vehicle sales were in China. The country produces more than 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, American tariffs notwithstanding.

As the days passed, the Beijing sky reverted to its more customary slate gray, and so, too, the initial brightness of my mood about the China of 2023 began to dim a bit. Underneath the self-confidence that I had always associated with China, I sensed a measure of uncertainty, largely as a result of the antagonism that many Chinese feel is emanating from Washington, which has led in turn to a feeling of resentment on the part of some Chinese toward the United States.

As Mr. Xi underscores China’s role as an independent superpower, the preferences of Chinese consumers appear to be shifting. In the past, they favored marquee foreign brands, from Nike sneakers to BMW cars. Today, they are moving toward local brands, like Anta sneakers and BYD cars.

My meetings in China are typically dominated by questions from me and my team. On this trip, our Chinese colleagues often turned the tables at least briefly, asking us what the United States was likely to do about issues such as Taiwan and potential investment limitations. Some declared that China was a kind of innocent victim of American power.

These subtle differences were largely at the margin; at least from my interactions, the Chinese business community remains eager for American investment dollars and for continued commerce with us.

That said, the trade restrictions imposed by both President Donald Trump and President Biden have had an evident impact. Exports to the United States of items subject to a 25 percent U.S. tariff, from furniture to consumer electronics, are down by more than 20 percent from 2017.

The restrictions on the sale of sensitive advanced technology to China are also taking their toll. Chinese experts acknowledge that the country’s march toward the forefront of artificial intelligence will be impeded by the ban on purchasing the most advanced semiconductors.

To its credit, in addition to toughness, the Biden administration is extending an olive branch. In a very thoughtful recent speech, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for “constructive engagement” with China — in effect, trying to achieve a win-win.

That’s an ambitious goal that will be best achieved by getting our own house in order. China has proved it can continue to grow faster than we do. We need to outcompete the country by raising our growth rate through initiatives like addressing our imprudently large budget deficit and our stultifying rules on the building of industrial facilities.

And we should buttress our human capital by increasing STEM graduates so that we can maintain our technological edge and by restructuring our immigration policies to attract talented people from all over the world and keep our most promising foreign students here.

Most important, we should not delude ourselves with the fantasy that China is going to fall under its own weight. The question, for America and its adversary, is whether this rivalry need be destructive or if a more prosperous, cooperative future is still possible.

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Steven Rattner is the chairman and chief executive officer of Willett Advisors and was a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration. For his latest updates and posts, please visit stevenrattner.com and follow him on Twitter and Facebook.