中國日報網8月15日電 歐洲盛寶銀行的一位分析師認為，能源危機和全球通脹飆升等多重因素衝擊英國經濟，英國正淪為一個新興市場國家。
Britain is becoming an 'emergingmarket country'
美國消費者新聞與商業頻道報道截圖
據美國消費者新聞與商業頻道（CNBC）報道，盛寶銀行近日發布的一份研究報告稱，英國“越來越像一個新興市場國家”。該行的宏觀分析主管克裏斯托弗·登比克指出，政局不穩、貿易混亂不堪、能源危機和通貨膨脹飆升，這些成為英國經濟陷入衰退的主要因素。
登比克指出，英國經濟崩潰了。這是脫歐沒做到的，但在新冠疫情和高通脹的加持下卻成功做到了。
在登比克看來，與新興市場國家唯一的區別，就是英國的貨幣在英國宏觀經濟持續走弱的情況下仍然相對穩定和堅挺。
過去一周，英鎊兌歐元僅下跌0.70%，與美元的匯率僅下跌1.50%。登比克表示，在經曆了英國脫歐的不確定性之後，目前看不到有什麽因素能推動英鎊大幅下跌。
然而，他指出，除了匯率穩定以外，其他所有主要指標都表明，英國經濟將麵臨更多痛苦。據報道，今年7月，英國新車注冊量（通常被認為是英國經濟良好的重要指標）減少了14%，從去年7月的183.5萬降至152.8萬。這是自20世紀70年代末以來的最低水平。
登比克認為，英國經濟衰退將是長期而深刻的，想要擺脫尤其不易。這才是最令人擔憂的因素。據英國央行預計，英國經濟衰退將持續到2025年中期，屆時英國GDP仍將比目前的水平低1.75%。
英國央行此前發布警告，由於成本上升衝擊經濟增長前景，英國經濟預計將從今年第四季度開始進入衰退，並將持續五個季度。這將是2008年金融危機以來持續時間最長的衰退期。
英國央行預計，10月的能源價格將進一步上漲75%，而能源價格飆升預計將在今年第四季度將通脹率推高至13%以上，並在2023年的大部分時間裏保持在非常高的水平。數據顯示，英國6月通脹率已高達9.4%，為40年來最高水平。
（編譯：武文潔 編輯：王旭泉）
Britain is becoming an 'emerging market country,' analyst says
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/britain-is-becoming-an-emerging-market-country-analyst-says.html
By Elliot Smith Aug 9 2022
- The Bank of England warned last week that the U.K. economy will enter its longest recession since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter, leading GDP 2.1% lower.
- In a research note Monday, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik, said the U.K. is “more and more looking like an emerging market country.”
- The only factor missing from a characterization as an EM country, Dembik said, is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm.
Political instability, trade disruptions, an energy crisis and skyrocketing inflation are rendering the U.K. an “emerging market country,” according to Saxo Bank.
The Bank of England warned last week that the U.K. economy will enter its longest recession since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter, leading GDP 2.1% lower. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to peak above 13% in October.
In a research note Monday, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik, said the U.K. is “more and more looking like an emerging market country.”
A new prime minister will be announced Sept. 5 after Boris Johnson’s resignation, with Conservative candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak vying for the keys to 10 Downing St. as the country faces a historic cost-of-living crisis and the sharpest fall in living standards on record.
The U.K.’s energy price cap is set to rise by another 70% in October, pushing energy bills above £3,400 ($4,118) per year and driving millions of households into poverty, with a further increase to the cap expected early next year.
The only factor missing from a characterization as an emerging market country, Dembik said, is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm despite the litany of macroeconomic headwinds.
“It only dropped 0.70% against the euro and 1.50% against the U.S. dollar over the past week. Our bet: after surviving Brexit uncertainty, we don’t see what could push the sterling pound into a free fall.”
However, he suggested that all leading indicators point to more pain ahead for the British economy. For instance, new car registrations — often perceived as a leading indicator of the health of the British economy — fell from 1.835 million in July 2021 to 1.528 million last month.
“This is the lowest level since the end of the 1970s. The recession will be long and deep. There won’t be an easy escape. This is most worrying, in our view. The Bank of England assesses the slump will last with GDP still 1.75% below today’s levels in mid-2025,” Dembik said.
“What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The U.K. economy is crushed.”
The one solace, according to the Danish investment bank, is that the Bank of England’s expected interest rate hike in September — which would be its seventh in a row — could be the last.
“Outside of the jobs markets, there are signs that some of the key inflation drivers may be starting to ease,” Dembik said.
“In addition, the prospect of a long recession (five negative quarters of GDP starting in Q4 2022 all the way through to Q4 2023) will certainly push the Bank of England into a wait-and-see position.”
The 'social contract is broken'
However, the bank suggested that there are longer-term implications to the current crisis.
“Imagine the graduate entering the workforce in 2009/10, who will have been told this was a once-in-a-lifetime crash. They are now in their early 30s and having yet another once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis,” Dembik said.
“They faced an economy of suppressed wages, no housing prospects, two years of socializing lost to lockdown, obscene energy bills and rent and now a lengthy recession. This will lead to more poverty and despair.”
The Bank of England has projected real household post-tax disposable income will fall 3.7% across 2022 and 2023, with low-income households the hardest hit, and Dembik highlighted the IMF’s recent findings that the U.K.’s poorest households are among the hardest hit in Europe by the cost-of-living spike.
Britain is becoming an ‘emerging market country’
“What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The UK economy is crushed.”
by Jack Peat 2022-08-10 in Business and Economics
Political instability, trade disruptions, an energy crisis and skyrocketing inflation is chipping into the country’s reputation on the world stage.
In a research note Monday, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik, said the UK is “more and more looking like an emerging market country.”
Citing trade disruptions due to Brexit and Covid-related bottlenecks, he said the only factor missing from a characterization as an emerging market country is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm despite the litany of macroeconomic headwinds.
“It only dropped 0.70 per cent against the euro and 1.50 per cent against the US dollar over the past week. Our bet: after surviving Brexit uncertainty, we don’t see what could push the sterling pound into a free fall.”
However, he suggested that all leading indicators point to more pain ahead for the British economy.
For instance, new car registrations — often perceived as a leading indicator of the health of the British economy — fell from 1.835 million in July 2021 to 1.528 million last month.
“This is the lowest level since the end of the 1970s. The recession will be long and deep. There won’t be an easy escape. This is most worrying, in our view. The Bank of England assesses the slump will last with GDP still 1.75 per cent below today’s levels in mid-2025,” Dembik said.
“What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The UK economy is crushed.”
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