獅虎論道—美國總統大選及左右經濟政策

獅虎論道—美國總統大選及左右經濟政策

 

獅子羔羊

 

 

2020, 9, 27

 

序

 

昨天獅子我出城辦事，早上八點出門，晚上六點到家，開車七個小時，中間還出大力流大汗地搬東西。第一次開掛拖車的車，有點緊張。好在有小女兒陪幫忙、陪伴。

 

剛剛到家，一位群友向我提出了如下的問題：(為行文方便姑且稱這位朋友為老虎朋友）

 

獅子，You always said you are social liberal, fiscal conservative. I can see you are indeed social liberal. What are your fiscal conservative views? You seem like to agree raising taxes in general.

 

Besides tax, there are business regulations, welfare, big/small government...  Do you agree supply side economics?

 

Do you like single payer health care system? Democrats are big favor of single payer care system like in some european countries. ObamaCare is the first step toward the single payer health care. That is why the right side hates so much.

 

Long time ago, I started to call myself social liberal and fiscal conservative. I agree almost all Republican's economic policies. But I am against gun ownership, pro-choice, pro LGBT in general.

 

為了尊重群友，我看到後立即回複道：老虎，我剛到家，一會兒回複你。

 

晚飯後，在又次搬運收拾後，我終於可以躺在床上休息了。我拿起iPad，拾起了與虎朋友的討論，以下是討論對話（稍做了一些文字訂正）

 

上半部：經濟政策

 

獅子：老虎，我的中文打字不好，英文拚寫不好，對於我來說，最好的還是傳統中文手寫，thanks to Steven Jobs, Apple provided that in all apple devices, including MacBook. I will use Chinese, you can use English as your wish. 

 

首先，讓我們進入一個假想的家族，這是一個大家族，幾十號上百號人。經過家族會議討論投票你被選為管理家族日常支出的管家人(像紅樓夢裏王熙鳳一樣）。具體的方法是這樣：

大家根據自己的收入按一定比例交月供

你收到錢後為大家提供夥食，和為那些為家族的利益與外人爭戰的人提供經濟支持，為家族裏的孩子提供教育。

在這樣的場景下，你就下麵的問題想一想，做一個yes,no的回答，我相信你的回答大多與我的相似。

 

1、你會不會在大家收入不錯的情況下，存一些所謂raining fund ，以備不時之需？

2、如果發生了與外界的爭戰，天災人禍，大家都收入欠佳，有人還分文不收，在用完 raining fund 你會不會設法從三個方麵想辦法讓一家人渡過難關？

A.增加仍然有收成的人的月供

B.降低夥食水平和其它支出

C.借錢

3、在災情過後，大家的收成又慢慢好起來後，你會不會設法把債還清，再設法存回raining fund,最後才會給大家減月供，恢複夥食水平?

4.你會不會在家裏債天天增長的情況下，給交月供的人減供?

5.外麵很多人提供醫療服務，費用一天高過一天，你家裏人六分之一的錢都用來付醫藥費了。大家都不堪重負，有時一生病就交不了月供。麵對這種情況，你會不會提議大家多交一些月供(但多交的部分絕對少過大家總收入的六分之），然後你用這錢給家裏學醫的人，讓他給家裏的人看病，不另收費用？

 

獅子：這裏的一個關鍵點在於public interest vs. private interest. As the ones managing the government, collectively, they need to focus on public interest. Sadly they are not.  在疫情之前。美國經濟強勁，失業率持續下降，股市持續上漲。但是政府赤字持續上升。如果你是總統，你會減稅嗎？但是，如果你代表那些高收入的階層而不顧整個國家的利益，你就會這麽做！在ACA影響了你所代表的醫療機構，保險公司的收入後，你會想方設法地幹掉它，雖然那是public interest 所在！

反之，如果你代表了那些低收入，中產階級的利益，你就會支持ACA，反對減稅。

 

By design ，畢竟窮人口多，富人口大，雙方搏弈後總能弄出個大家都能接受但都不完全滿意的方式案來。（這就是民主政治的重要前提）

 

老虎：I think both conservative and liberal have their own sophisticated economics theory. We don't need to re-invente wheels. Just tell me which side do you agree on the fiscal policies.

 

 

獅子：想通了這些後，你就知道他們都是在忽悠。他們講天講地就是不講心裏話，兩黨都是的。

 

舉幾個例子，從主黨開始。

 

“Health care is not a privilege , is a basic human right ”

 

Any thing cost money, is not your “right”! You have the right to breath air , air does not cost money. You have right to pursuit of happiness, that does not cost money too. 

 

 

This is a example from the right side:

 

You cannot force everyone to buy your government insurance, it against constitution.

 

What they really want to say is: “ if government runs health care service , our interest groups ‘ interest will be affected , we cannot let it happen “

 

Here you are another one: 減稅可以刺激經濟

 

我認為“減稅business tax可以增加公司盈利，但是不會刺激經濟”

 

老虎：That is liberal side of fiscal opinion.

 

獅子：如果你是開餐館的，你現在的正常盈利是10%，食客就是附近的人，增加不到哪裏。政府少收稅，你的盈利變成12%了。你會因此延長營業時間嗎？或者再開一家？如果是我，我不會。反之，如果這城裏多了許多人，食客如雲。就是不減稅我也設法多開幾家。不論怎樣減稅，沒有新的需求，我一定不雇新人。有需求，不減稅也雇。我不懂經濟理論，這些對於我來說都是common senses .

 

老虎：獅子， let me ask you a straight question. Do you think the business tax rate should be the current of 21% or should be what Biden proposed 28%?

 

獅子：It depends. There never be a simple answer like that. I only can tell you moving from 21 to 28 what would be the impact, moving from 28 to 21 what is the impact.

 

Assume covid19 is going to be over after vaccines are available， everyone’s life goes back to it was before. Consider the federal budget deficit such high, if I were the president, I would consider increase tax in general.

 

老虎：Ok. Another one, Do you think right now we have too many or too little regulations for the business?

 

獅子：Consider financial crisis gets us more and more frequently, In such high tech IT time, financial crisis can be prevented by demanding business enterprises provide real time financial information (anonymously), for monitoring purposes. So I support more monitoring to prevent financial crisis. 

 

老虎：monitoring is different from regulations. Monitoring is just to collect the data for analysis. regulation is enforcement.

 

獅子：你要monitoring ,人家不讓你monitor,你不立法，成嗎？你說：我要看到你實時現金流。他幹嗎？你發現他己經輸得底褲都沒了，卻在騙大眾“we are financially sound”，你不采取行動？

 

 

老虎：Do you prefer the private health insurance companies or single payer government health system?

 

獅子：I support mix of both.

 

老虎：You sound more and more in line with the liberals.

 

獅子：我這是common sense。我不要欠債，我不借錢玩酷，我想辦法少花錢多辦事。

 

老虎：There are good debt (mortgage) and bad debt (credit card).

 

獅子：No debt is good debt if you need to pay interest unless you are “guaranteed” to have some profit higher than the interest you pay should you invest the money you loan to somewhere else. But there are times, debt is necessary. Almost nobody buy house without mortgage. it is not good, it is a case of no choice. if you wait till you have the full cost to buy your house, you may not ever buy your own house, but you need a house to stay.

 

老虎：I agree everyone should have independent thinking and research. To my family, I have same way as most middle class Chinese, no debt except for mortgage, very seldom with an auto purchase if the finance is good deal.

 

獅子：so, we are all fiscal conservative. I don't even have car debts, even my car is less than one year old, and quite pricy.

 

 

老虎：But the economics does not work the same way as a family economy.

獅子：it does. People tell you otherwise is to bluff you. 忽悠你.

 

老虎：That is not what I mean fiscal conservative. Maybe I ask the wrong question.

獅子：Don’t live on debt, is conservative. Don’t spend more money if you are still in debt is conservative.

 

老虎：I should have asked you do you agree with Republican's economic policies or the Democrat's.

獅子：If I were as rich as trump, I might consider going with GOP’s policy. This is not because  i think it is good for the country, Rather than it is good for me.

 

老虎：Every politician says they are thinking what is good for the country.

獅子：這是最大的忽悠！Nobody, nobody does that. Not even one, Democrat or republican!

 

老虎：Can I conclude that you are on democratic side for both their social and economic policies?

獅子：I am on my side. I am not on either side. All I am saying is: I can see through both sides. I see them through crystal clear.

 

老虎：I agree with most of Dem's social policies but agree with all GOP side of fiscal policies. You can not cherry pick. You just have to side with someone in general.

獅子：I would say you haven’t seen through their bluff yet.

 

下半部：2020年大選選誰

 

老虎：You are on the moderate of democrats side. I don't want to label you. But these days, when you vote, you do have to take a side. Even both candidates are very bad like in 2016. You just have to pick one with less evil.

獅子：I am who I am. But tell you the truth., whom I am going to vote has nothing to do with anything we talk about here.  

 

獅子：I am voting for democracy, for decency. Jeff Flake said it well https://medium.com/@JeffFlake/heres-who-i-ll-be-supporting-for-president-and-why-ce983293fae6. I agree with every single word he said. If we have learned anything over the past four years, it is that character matters. Decency matters. Civility never goes out of style. And we should expect our president to exhibit these virtues.

 

老虎：I completely respect Jeff Flake ( I was the audience when he gave the commencement speech for Harvard Law School in 2018). He depicted an ideal scenario when he is not in the picture. Most people can see the problems now in US and can propose an ideal solution. But that is not going to work practically now. Once you are a candidate, you are forced to be in the mud. Each interest group pretty much has their own agenda. They just want you to take a position. 

 

獅子: Lincoln Project said in their mission statement : “Our many policy differences with national Democrats remain. However, the priority for all patriotic Americans must be a shared fidelity to the Constitution and a commitment to defeat those candidates who have abandoned their constitutional oaths, regardless of party” and I agree with them.

 

獅子：As a voter, this is my position, like Jeff is now. My position is: remove trump from White House by voting is much more important and urgent than and policy differences I have with democrats.

 

老虎：I completely respect your decision and Jeff’s. For the personal character, we are not voting for a moral leader. For personal character, Hitler is probably better than almost all modern politicians. So what!  Comparing personal characters, I agree Trump is worse than Biden. But for a politician, he is not.

 

獅子：And I respect yours too. But I am not going vote for someone who purposely lie to us for his political gain at the cost of american's lives. I am not going to vote for someone treat others badly just because they criticize him . I am not going to vote for someone treat our war heroes without respect.

 

老虎：The biggest lie a politician has is not to fulfill his campaign promise.

獅子：I disagree on that. There are some differences between telling lies and not keep one’s campaign promise.  " I am going to build a wall along the border, and Mexico will pay for it". the first part is a promise, the second part is a lie. 

 

Once you are a president, you are not only the president of the voters who voted for you, you are also the president of those voters who voted against you. You won the electoral vote so you are the president, let’s say you also won the the popular vote by 50.1%, that means there are 49.9 voters voted against your campaign promise, as a president, you need to reach out to them, and listen to them, make some adjustments to your campaign promise to win the hearts and minds of those voters who voted against you. so, another phrase for “Keeping campaign promise” is refuse to listen to people who voted against you, or “refuse to be the president of all people”.  That’s the difference between campaigning and governing.  In certain sense : The more promises he kept, the worse the president he is.

 

老虎：今天的金句。

獅子：If a president did not listen to those who voted against him (more than 50%) and still push for his original agenda , does that make him a not very good president? At least , not good In listening.

 

老虎：I agree what you said in general. And I know Trump is not a person with great character. Anyone grew up in NYC is questionable, particularly working in real estate business (not to offend folks in this business, but you really have to deal with some rough folks and you become them more or less)

 

I watched the apprentice show. He is a horrible boss to work with.  That was way before he touched the politics.

 

獅子：wait, NYC很大哦. Even in real estate business in NYC 也是成千上萬哦. 你這話打擊麵太廣, 我為NYC 做real estate 的人叫屈.  I have a few friends in NYC, and also in real estate business, and they are all very honest people. NYC should not be held responsible for Trumps characters defect.

 

獅子：To be clear, whom you will vote , it is your right and your private matter. You do not explain to me. 

老虎：I know

 

獅子：But we are in some kind discussion. Discussion needs to follow logic.  

 

 

老虎：Remember Trump is a buddy of Clintons, and many other dem. What I mean is that Trump in his heart was a liberal, at least for the social side.

獅子：In my mind ,He is not liberal, he is not conservatives. he has no principles.  He is a person with character defects.

 

老虎：That is your opinion.

獅子：You stated your opinion, And I stated mine. We can disagree without disrespect to each other.