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(2021-08-04 12:01:25) 下一個
【中國近期對大型網絡企業的“打擊”】
 
上海股指：今年是過山車
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mr. Fang told the meeting attendees Wednesday that China will in the future introduce new policies in a more cautious manner to avoid market volatility, and that more time would be given to let the markets digest new information, according to the people familiar with the matter. He said regulators will also consider the impact of their policies on publicly listed companies.
The regulator also said China’s Communist Party is eager to protect the interests of private companies and international investors, and the government is planning to introduce more policies to attract foreign investment, the people added.
 
 
 
 
沒有腐敗，純屬政策不同意見，但是不是被企業收買（captured）？
 
外資撤出
So when the federation and four other state propaganda arms issued a sternly worded set of “opinions” on how to conduct literary and art criticism, investors took the admonishment as a “sell” signal for a group of listed companies that use algorithms to promote online content.
Unfortunately for investors, at the sharp end of the crackdown are trained ideologues, like those in the state literary and arts establishment whose “opinions” included the decidedly un-technocratic instruction to “promote truth, goodness and beauty, criticize fake, evil and ugliness.”
 
新的看法
西方馬上給抓住了：
 
 
 
 
深度調查
5位采訪
2014年阿裏在美國上市後，破冰環節中的尺度明顯沒那麽大了，風氣也好了很多。除了外部審視，也因為內部質疑的員工太多。總部的人也管過，隻是沒有強製取消
那時組長還起哄要求擁抱，我拒絕以後還導致我們組被扣了分
然後畫風就開始不對：那兩個妹子再加上P9老大，基本上一直是邊開玩笑邊問問題。問的都是些“如果要在我們在場的幾個男的裏麵選老公，選誰？選情人，選誰？”這樣的。已婚的妹子也被問到，在場的男的也基本都是已婚，其他人還會起哄。還有問性經曆、次數、地點，甚至會刨根問底到姿勢什麽的，以至於後來我每次開會看到老大那張臉都會不適。我們部門都是社招，所以沒有那種剛畢業的小姑娘，但這種事情無關年齡，已婚的聽了也犯惡心
 
（2016）團隊在私下團建時，每個新人都要經曆一個破冰儀式——不論男女生，都需要交代初夜經曆
 
2018年時，有阿裏出來的人在我參加的團建活動上搞這套，要所有人輪流從在座的異性裏分別選出結婚對象、戀愛對象和一夜情對象。我當時直接甩臉走人了，但很多女生硬著頭皮繼續留在那裏參與遊戲
 
 
 
不能不說，盡管有破冰，大部分員工還以以身為阿裏感到自豪，這才是這次事件巨大反映的原因
 
 
 
 
 
Beijing’s latest move is a response to long-held public grievances about educational inequality and the resulting pressure to keep up
 
2021.10.23
對時局的回顧：反壟斷、反串謀，共同富裕
 
 
 
DanWang: This NYMag piece is surprisingly sympathetic to the regulatory concerns of the tech crackdown, outlining the financial risks created by Ant, the sundry excesses by the big platforms, and the monetization of status anxiety in online tutoring:
 
 
課外補習老師能賺多少？
對於課外補課機構的上課時間和收費標準也有了新規定，每節課的時間要和學校期間一樣，每節課不能超過45分鍾，而課間的時間也要在10分鍾左右，晚上不能超過8：30
舉一個很簡單的例子，如果補課班每節課的費用是100元，一周上3節課，那麽一個月就是1200元，如果按照半年的費用計算，那就是7200元，但是現在一次性不能收取超3600元
一般補課班的費用是比較高的，一節課基本上都會在80元左右，有些一對一的老師一節課就會達到200元
那麽已經明確規定，在職教師不允許課外授課
 
我們這教育局的領導的孩子寒暑假都請公立教師給自己的孩子輔導，領導開會的時候說的，還對那個老師表示感謝
公立學校在編教師屬於公職人員，禁止有償補課，可以舉報。無償補課是允許的，私立學校或代課老師不受限製
我們僅從法律層麵上來看，你當然是具有舉報的權利的。但是通過你的描述，你所在的學校幾乎所有的老師都會進行這種私下的補課，那已經成為了一個大家一致認同的事情，你即使去舉報了，我覺得作用也不是很大
 
美國老師也月光
 
在香港，各式各樣的補習機構加起來有近千家，課餘時間，學生們背著書包在大街小巷裏的補習班穿梭。1996年，香港有補習經曆的學生還隻有34.1%，十幾年後這個數字變成了72.5%
有調查顯示，今年（2019）暑假，就有差不多40%的家長為子女報了暑期興趣班及補習班，超過10%報了超過6個補習班
 
Teachers, too, have been drawn into the industry. Many training schools hire public school teachers to work part-time for handsome salaries, and some teachers now put more effort into their after-school classes than their full-time jobs. Others go further, by not teaching important material during the school day, and instead implying that students should sign up for paid after-school classes if they want to learn it
 
 
 
 
 
 
【台灣】
胡錫進詐唬：
 
冠毒戰
"but a lack of progress in talks with the U.S. company mean the project will take time"
瞎扯：
 
美國就是不行
 
 
 
東盟，有戲嗎？
 
John Verwey, a trade and investment analyst with a focus on microelectronics, argues that it is China-powered growth that finances the US industry’s ability to innovate and thus stay ahead in its race with China
 
 
 
東盟是中國周邊外交的優先方向。去年外長會以來，雙方領導人保持戰略溝通，為中國東盟關係提供政治引領。雙方友好合作取得新的重要進展。一是團結抗疫詮釋友鄰之誼；二是貿易投資合作可圈可點；三是可持續發展合作穩步推進；四是“南海行為準則”磋商保持勢頭
 
區域內的貿易，亞洲過半是自己跟自己貿易。但這也有另一層含義，區域外的就不把你當成有吸引力，如歐洲
 
非洲在追趕
 
 
 
中國的，區域結合，亞洲人管亞洲人，就是要把美國趕出去，但未必能成。因為大家希望美國留下搗亂，但美國除了搗亂，別無良招
 
 
印度
莫希智（隨水）
the world’s largest democracy is changing in fundamental ways, raising questions about whether it should even be called a democracy at all
recently reclassified the country as an “electoral autocracy”
 
 
 
如果美國內訌，誰是第一個受愛者？華人
 
與我們不同意見的，都是反對者，反對者都是敵人。怎麽對待敵人？是尊重？法製？
 
美國左右兩邊都不能說到一起，都恨不得殺了對方，當這場衝突風險太大而旁邊恰恰有一隻替罪羊，一群與美國民族不共戴天的中國相關的人的時候，結果會這樣？那時候如果暴徒襲擊華人，警察隻要怠工，不能麽
 
 
「二」美英澳：法國氣瘋了
 
上周美英澳突然宣布達成了新的反華聯盟，英國打氣，美國助陣，澳大利亞上戰場【1，2】，有些澳大利亞人這麽形容這個協議：
 
Illustration: John Shakespeare
奧媒漫畫
 
新聞發布會上，大家還是很客氣的，“完全不是針對任何人......沒有沒有，跟中國無關”，美英澳三國隻是要同心協力維護印太的安全，在會上，（澳大利亞總理）莫裏森順便再次“友善地邀請習近平‘商討兩國關係’”【3】，中國對奧的經濟製裁，這次莫裏森是能大膽地回應了。不過中國還沒反應過來，那邊法國氣瘋了【4，5】。
法國外長和防長：
 
美英澳戰略聯盟的核心部分是奧將從美國買入核潛艇，可奧已經和法國有一個建造（常規）潛艇的合約，新的美英澳協議意味著澳大利亞將撕毀與法國的合約，這是激怒法國的原因。法國人和大家一樣，自己被捅了一刀後才在報紙上知道自己被捅了，法國外長和防長都公開發表聲明，“兩麵三刀”，“背信棄義”，“不可接受”，“凶殘”，“川普第二”，（“這種毫無商討，單方的決定和川普沒什麽兩樣”）【6-10】，前法國大使把世界描述成叢林【6】，盟友不盟友，美英奧照樣捅你。
 
 
 just one hour before Scott Morrison the Australian PM announced this at a press conference
 
 
 
This line reads exactly like Chinese statements: The officials said the partnership ... was "not aimed at any one country."
 
 
 
 
 
反應
 
從美方的計劃和準備，甚至事後法國的反應來看，美國對法國的反應毫無準備，從新聞發布會到隨後的表態，美國隻是說“法國和核心盟友”，“這種小事能妥善解決”，法國視為危機【12，13，14，15】，美國視為小事。
 
法國的反映確實厲害，中國罵美國英國的話，法國都說出來了，從背信棄義，殺人不見血，到充當走狗【16】，這隻是說的，行動上，法國取消了美法240 夥伴關係慶祝會【17】，召回駐美駐奧大使【18，19】。因為澳大利亞是打手，莫裏森一直在為自己撕毀協約辯護，他越辯護，美英越不當一回事，法國越氣，叫停法英國防峰會【20】，封殺歐奧自貿協議【21，22】。
 
對此，英國首相莊生受不了了，公開對媒體說：“你們法國有完沒完啊？是個大人嗎？”，新外長撰文歡呼英國“夠狠”，
 
 
原因
 
澳大利亞呢？法國慢，工程期不斷延遲，價錢也一升再升，
Earlier this year, Australia approached the UK about switching to a nuclear powered subs. The UK then approached the United States
Their view is that this was an Australian decision based on their changing strategic circumstances and a deteriorating environment.
結果還是澳大利亞，但美國輕視，與拜登班子不配，導致雙邊關係受損，後果不一定能挽回
“Hey France, your current diesel powered sub project is late and costs are running over, you wanna ditch that and start a NEW project?”法國前大使也這麽說
 
美英澳新的防衛條約和核潛艇計劃一個暗中的主要目標是公開表達對台灣的支持，
 
誰先發起來的？為什麽要這麽做？美國國防部終極官員（中國問題專家）杜如鬆說美國他已經就此費了好幾個月的心，可見計劃好一陣子了，這暗示著美國一直在籌謀這件事，澳大利亞兩個月前還向法國擔保核潛艇合約，感覺是美國一直在鼓動，澳大利亞肯定也動心了，但沒拍板，美國很可能提出這是對中國製裁美國
 
為什麽美國沒跟歐洲，尤其是法國打招呼？一是擔心法國激烈反對，二是報複德法去年中歐全麵投資協定不理睬拜登當局，三是給澳大利亞找到了一個回應中國經濟訛詐的手段，

Some really bold leaks coming from State Department. In one France was not informed because “we knew they would go ballistic.” In another France was not informed “because we thought it was no big deal.” In a third the whole idea came from Australia
 
英國方麵的故事
Scott Morrison discussed the defence deal with Boris Johnson at the G7 summit while the French focused on sausages
英國是美英澳“反華集團”的核心主力，籌謀者，這一高度機密，英國隻有10個人知道
起於今年3月，澳大利亞對法國潛艇的評估是不足以突破中國的防衛線，生存率低，想換成核潛艇，隻能向美國求助，但要英國幫忙，英國則將之視為自己再次成為美國“核心成員”的機會，美國外交部、國防部和能源部都要審核
 an excited Johnson was keen for something much deeper. “Boris really pushed it. There was a choice about how broad it would be — was it just a technical agreement on a specific subject or is this more broad? Boris was pushing that it had to be as ambitious as possible. This was a strategic move,”
莊生要把它和英國的印太戰略連到一起，
AUKUS is not merely about submarines. It is much more significant. As the Australian prime minister Scott Morrison said, it is “a partnership where our technology, our scientists, our industry, our defence forces will work together to deliver a safer and more secure region that ultimately benefits all”
 
美國方麵的故事
評論（Max Bergmann）：1. France is right to be pissed. It's like they were left at the alter and found out via text. 2. But AUKSUS makes more strategic sense for Australia. No good way to end it w/ France. 3. US is stuck in the 90s on EU，美國根本不顧歐洲，視為一群眼巴巴看著美國的二流角色
Meanwhile the US has pushed Europe hard on our priority, China. France, unlike Berlin, shares the concern and has been supportive and active
 When Europe, ie France, pushes for the EU to reduce its dependence on a disengaged US ("strategic autonomy") and develop EU defense, we freak out, kill off any bold efforts. EU defense is stalled b/c of us
they like Europe's dependence，美國的目標也是要把歐盟打造成二流角色，增加對美國的依賴性
 
也難怪中國人暗中樂
這事兒法國人一直被瞞在鼓裏，跟大家一樣在見報後才發現（有說提前幾個小時通告的）
Has anyone made any sense of the Biden doctrine? Human rights at the core. We no longer enforce human rights globally. China is a mortal threat. We need to work with China. European allies critical. We do not care about what Europe wants.
 
對法國產業、就業的打擊，即使在戰略上對法國沒什麽影響，也是不能接受的，900億（美元）的訂單，很多人等著這開飯
 
克裏兜售內幕，損人
 
法國方麵的故事
法國國內的戰略思維，歐洲的獨立性，不能在美國陰影籠罩之下，是歐洲有自己聲音的關鍵
最新內幕，10.03
 
 
對法國的傷害
奧法的合約，美國國企洛克希德·馬丁拿到的分量比法國還多
1. "We wanted nuclear subs!"
2. "Manufacturing delays!"
3. The final justification, the impolitic one, is one that sounds hard-nosed and realpolitik-y, is "The US is a closer ally and they can offer more so we’ll choose them over you."
4. Indeed, from the French perspective, the Australian partnership was seen as a strategic lynchpin of a Pacific strategy aligned with the Western alliance, and away from a policy of balancing the US with China.
5. Ok I have found the true reason for the Australian decision. And tbh, I understand.
 
報複（10.04）自貿協定
 
heavy political act which signals the gravity of the crisis between our countries
"There have been lies, contempt and a breach of trust ... An hour before, we knew nothing about these negotiations. You do not deal with an ally like France with such brutality and unpredictability
I do not understand the logic of this agreement [...] It illustrates Australia's willingness to be a surrogate for the United States and to abandon its sovereignty
中國罵美國英國的話，法國都說出來了，從背信棄義，殺人不見血，充當走狗
【阿富汗事件美國也傷了歐洲的心，因為歐洲信了美國的情報估計】
"Mr. Macron had made the growing French relationship with Australia a cornerstone of a strategy to expand Europe’s role in meeting the challenge of China’s rise. Because an American company, Lockheed Martin, was a partner in the French submarine deal with Australia..."
...the contract was viewed in Paris as an example of how France and the U.S. could work together in Asia. That belief has now been shredded, replaced by bitterness, suspicion and a measure of incredulity that the Biden Administration would treat France this way."
Questions: So no one in DC thought of this? Or was willing to delay the announcement for a few days to break the news to France? Or figure a way to bind European countries into the strategy instead of cutting them out?
The temporary return of the ambassadors to Paris amounts to a severe diplomatic rebuke that is usually used against adversaries.超出了盟友所應當做的
“For any who still doubted it, the Biden administration is no different from the Trump administration on this point: The United States comes first, whether it’s in the strategic, economic, financial or health fields. ‘America First’ is the guiding line of the foreign policy of the White House.”
in its secretive preparation but also indicative of a fundamental strategic shift that calls into question the very nature of the Atlantic alliance
越來越激烈
 
 
如果法奧不涉及金錢，法國會這麽急嗎？美國是為了在澳大利亞死死地拉到自己的一邊，還是順便收收保護費？如果金錢是個因數，那中國那方麵的“收買”，是不是也還會有魅力呢？
 
發生在拜登任期，川普時都沒有出現的事故
 
法國雖然沒有從英國撤大使，但公開說“跟你們沒完，你這心甘情願當美國走狗”（[Britain] is hiding in the American bosom, This is a return to the American fold and a form of accepted vassalization），看來不是中國才這麽說。
 
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1439652352638783500?s=20
 
下周在匹茲堡的美歐貿易技術委員會會議（Trade and Technology Council，TTC）能不能達成任何協議都成了問題
I am also hearing that AUKUS vindicates Germany on Nordstream
 
盡管捅了法國一刀，在中國這大原則上，美歐還是站到一起了
然而：
 
As Axios reported, President Xi Jinping's senior officials would only speak with Kerry by video call, sending a junior official to meet the former secretary of State in person
 
 
 
為什麽傷害
 
法國本身的戰略宏圖被排擠到邊緣
唯一向南海排出核潛艇的歐洲國家，積極響應美國，參加軍演，同時自謀利益，
The US missed the political and strategic dimensions of this case in Paris.
根本沒把“盟友”放在心上
 
美國把盟友分成等級，像英國日本都急著巴結，好往上蹭，提高自己在美國麵前的身價，這也無奈，但這樣對待歐盟可是傷了這一世界三大經濟體之一的心，
可同時，你也隱約覺得這未必不是美國的出發點，表麵上哄著你，但不想你有一天成為一個對手
 
The US, UK and Australia decided to publicly humiliate France and are now surprised France is not happy about it. Seems that simple to me
 
雖然是個別，也許極端些，這話從法國人嘴裏說出來，真是一番滋味
"It's very symbolic. There was a breakdown of trust."
@JY_LeDrian
, Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the case of the contract for submarines broken by Australia
 
法國的野心
 
法國夢
從某個角度來看，法國和英國很相近，那就是覺得自己是個世界大國，大國就得有打過的架勢，實力，最直接說的，是“影響力”，就是說話有人聽，有人附和，最後自己的利益得到保護，利益越大，勢力影響也越來越大，兩者相互相成，所以曾經像個大國的，英法，也包括日本，對自己的形象，對自己的利益都有極強的保護本能。法國時常用武力幹預北非是法國這種帝國夢的反映，當法國意識到自己實力不足時，主張歐盟的獨立性，也是希望利用、借助歐盟整體來加強自己的實力，美國在法國背後捅一刀，是對整個法國民族的自尊心捅了一刀，（All of a sudden, French assumptions about its foreign policy — the West, working alliances, its place in the Pacific），把法國整個戰略宏圖的構思和基礎都推翻了，站在法國那一邊想想，如果這一刀是一個不停地向你保證合作共同價值的“盟友”所為，你會這麽想？僅僅幾句安慰就能解決嗎？
France was Europe’s leading voice for a China strategy less muscular than what the United States and some Asian powers have come to espouse，法國有不可饒恕之罪Supporters of French policy in the Pacific say that France was not blinded by its past, but simply trying to establish a coherent policy in a region
“The decline of France is a theme that emerges often, especially during electoral periods, and is popular among the right and far right,” Mr. Decis said. “It’s the idea that France used to be extremely powerful and influential, and that the France of today is insignificant and contemptible
 
法國的野心法國的夢
 
很多人給拜登的迷魂湯灌暈了，以為美國真的是為了“價值”，They were kept secret even as the US administration encouraged France and the EU to develop their own efforts to counter China’s more belligerent posture in the region. That counts as straightforward mendacity.拜登也確實用“價值”把大家吃死了，你總不能跟中國站在一起吧？確實不能，那大家就隻好吃苦果子，老老實實當從屬、附庸
 
法國自己的軍工產業
國防依賴於一個強大的軍工產業，而軍工產業如果沒有一個宿敵，也就失去了社會的支持，可國與國之間的軍工產業不是零和，但很有零和的味道，所以價值、勢力背後是產業間的競爭
 
美國黨媒
 
清晰
盧斯倒不是站在盎格魯撒克遜一邊幸災樂禍，而是指出真正的危機
The handling of the Flag of United StatesFlag of AustraliaFlag of United Kingdom sub deal looks stunningly inept. Didn’t anyone consider handling the certain Flag of France reaction and the potential Flag of European Union implications? This runs very deep in Paris for reasons well beyond the sub deal in itself
澳大利亞的手段非常狠，有種狗急跳牆的意思，死死抱住美國大腿，並沒有考慮後果，因為奧是個小國，小國最關鍵的擇主、挑邊站隊
 
中國威脅論，比民主自由普世價值，更有新引力，因為那是一種條件反射，生存的本能，歐洲是可以感覺到的，主要是中國的主權
 
抗議美英澳結新盟，核潛艇“捅法國一刀”，法國召回駐美大使。不久前中國召回駐立陶宛大使，被西媒擠噠，但那已經是避免斷交所能做的最嚴厲的決定。法國這一決定，還不在於法國是不是氣瘋了，而是自譽為人才濟濟的拜登當局為什麽沒有預測國際關係發展的先見
 
總統候選人之一：
 
美國把責任推到澳大利亞身上
美國是不是真的，有意撇開歐洲，嫌歐洲搖擺不定，礙事呢？沒有歐洲（隻有不與中國串通一氣）行嗎？
AUKUS "was very closely held inside the administration, and spearheaded by the Asia team working under Kurt Campbell."
 
 
智庫的反擊，沒料到法國的反映
 
在中國，大家都哀歎西方控製著話語權，在西方，英語體係控製住話語權，西方智庫絕大多數都是美國，或者美國附屬，美國支助的，所以都是一片“美國為領導的國際自由民主秩序”聲音，當法國懟美英澳時，智庫一股絞殺法國的浪潮，
 
澳大利亞和美國都有一種這邊捅你一刀和那邊親熱是兩碼事那種感覺，就是好的我都吃了，你還得跟我玩兒，這是對中國的態度，也是對法國的態度
莫裏森還公開表示“絕不後悔”
 
是歐盟在中歐全麵投資協定上給了美國一個警告，借口、理由
Frustrating Paris has apparently been seen as an acceptable prize, as France was unwilling to join the US re China
The US has not concluded that it can’t work with allies on China. That is just a wrong judgment. Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀
 
鷹派:
baodao
 
There’s inconsistency on both sides in the #AUKUS row. Anglos complain France not reliable / committed in Indo-Pacific yet begrudge its offense at being sidelined in that very arena; French preach European strategic autonomy yet are appalled when Anglos take them at their word
Better to see AUKUS as the poorly handled realisation of new basic realities. UK and Aus both have strong impetus (Brexit & geography respectively) to move in lockstep with US on China policy; France & EU have grounds to seek a more nuanced form of alignment with US positions
Recognising those differences, and the inevitable pluralism of any post-hegemonic Western alliance (“Westishness” as I’ve called this in @NewStatesman), would be a good first step to managing them more constructively in future and thus moving on from the AUKUS row.
Final thought in passing... the term “strategic autonomy” is clearly becoming more hindrance than help to the actually sensible French goal of a Europe better able to manage its own security (and to be a sovereign partner rather than surly supplicant to US). Time to ditch it
 
 
美英澳聯盟是對反華陣營的重組，分出高低，為了反華，其他一切都可以犧牲，但也反應拜登不再猶豫，對中國是全社會反華，雖然文明衝突這叫法名聲不好，但實質就是文明衝突，隻是掩蓋成意識形態的衝突
報複中歐投資協定，德法不夠堅決，懲罰法國
If the US strongly desires to organize a network of alliances to counter China, it acted truly irresponsibly by antagonizing a longtime partner and by cutting itself off from at least part of the Europeans.傲慢
 
美英澳聯盟是一把插向中國心髒的尖刀，一招要害
 
 
和稀泥
The EU is trying to bind France to the bloc’s nascent Indo-Pacific strategy. Per senior EU diplomat: “There will be no real change to the structure of the EU’s strategy. The bitterness of the French? At the end of the day, the French are pretty much behind the strategy.”
So now the argument is that France should not complain about submarines deal because global economic competition is a jungle but Australia can complain about its trade deal with the EU because we live in a rules based order?
 
 
欺騙、捅了一刀，殘酷現實：法國如果沒有整個歐盟在背後撐腰，啥也不是
法國自覺有基地、有策略，一直是歐洲的帶頭人，可偏偏就依賴澳大利亞，法國想做的，美奧都包了，沒什麽留給法國，隻好去巴結印度。不久前八強峰會和北約峰會拜登籠絡人心的熱情全都扔到爪哇國了，當時德法有異議，北約跟中國無關，但為了顧全大局跟班了，現在拜登一腳踹了。法國太天真了，“拜登不是川普”。美國總是必須當老大，大家在“平等相處”的原則下以為不提就能糊弄過去，當自己被教訓一把的時候，才會深深領悟到那是啥滋味。
 
歐盟你沒刀沒槍，光說說有啥用？還得看我的
 
 
戰略意義
 
澳大利亞少數不同意見
拜登連莫裏森的名字都忘了
The three amigos – an Aussie marketing huckster, an English buffoon and an American senior citizen. Fresh from being chased out of Afghanistan and humiliated by barbarian terrorists they’d set out to defeat 20 years earlier
20年之內沒貨，奧擔心現有常規潛艇技術不足以對抗中國，那麽現在美國的核潛艇技術20年後有戲嗎（當然美國也可能會更新技術，但好像不再海軍計劃裏）？澳大利亞如果在這期間想要，就不知道到哪兒去買了。
澳大利亞國防的潛艇計劃一直處於紊亂狀態，2009年（工黨）陸克文定了從日本買，他的繼任吉拉德把方案撤了，後來自由黨上台，阿博特又跟日本商量，繼任特恩布爾再次變卦，跟法國簽了大單合約，幾天前又被莫裏森撕毀（回到爹媽（英美）家裏，奧媒的用語）
by the time these nuclear submarines begin to arrive, the contest likely will have been decided.
Australia is speaking loudly and carrying a small stick. Or perhaps speaking loudly and hoping its mates are bringing the sticks
A re-invigorated, tri-continental, battle-tested alliance of capable, modern nations has just declared itself opposed to any Chinese pretensions to an easy hegemony.中國靠詐唬是不行了
Li posited that the US was seeking to isolate China from the Asia-Pacific, much as it had isolated Russia from Europe.
兩黨支持，成了國策，有基礎
基地，軍事技術、產業
看似笨拙，但有致命一擊之勢
美國、日本、澳大利亞，還有歐盟的軍艦在巡邏，不開火，都是大家大聲向中國挑明南海不是你的，你再說也沒用，難道你鬥膽跟全世界為敵？所以這招是很厲害的
 
澳大利亞加載美中之間，不僅僅是因為美中之間的冷戰，還是國防上依賴美國，經濟上依賴中國這麽一個特點，盡管澳大利亞與中國的關係近年來日益惡化，但很多人意識到奧經濟對中國依賴這麽一個現實，所以奧還是有向中國搖擺的可能，這點，不僅澳大利亞鷹派擔心，美國也擔心，這一聯盟把奧死死地綁在美國這艘船上，奧失去了變卦的能力，但這也把澳大利亞和中國的經濟關係推到台前，中國肯定會把斬斷對奧的依賴放在自己的戰略目標之上
 
分析
澳大利亞一直在欺騙法國，說要繼續，隻是新聞公報前一個小時才正是通知法國，搞亂了西方自己的關係，奧政府未必勝任
罵：
 
英語語係裏好戰的三國：美英澳，戰略聯盟，
 
美英澳新聯盟是回應中國的崛起，中國軍事力量壯大帶來的威脅，中國海軍過去幾年的擴張是曆史上絕無僅有的，一句話，中國逼的，叫單方麵改變區域力量分布現實，受衝擊者不得不反擊，所以如果說這是一場新的軍備競賽，那是中國引起的軍備競賽。
 
美國和歐洲（反華勢力）的計劃：重新寫遊戲規則，歡迎中國進來玩，但沒有規則製定權，基本上承認原有的西方自由民主國際秩序已經被中國占領，玩不下去了，入關了也沒用。這說明一個古怪的現象，美國所謂的“基於規則的國際秩序”，中國是最大的捍衛者，最近申請加入泛太協定又是一個新的例子，反而是美國招架不住，不停地在嚷嚷“基於規則的國際秩序”，但卻在現有體製內步步後退，拋棄、砸爛，重新打造新的，因為玩不過中國。美國可以說中國市場不夠開放，（商業）法製不健全，國家幹預經濟過多（補助），但從中國的申請來看，中國有信心進一步改善、提高，反而是美國適應不了。
 
中國政府應當發表一份白皮書：一個開放，沒有外國勢力幹預，歡迎大家交流、交易和投資的開放環境，建立在一個大家共同介紹的規則之上，而不是少數國家的“基於規則的國際秩序”
 
如果還不夠清楚：
 
 
醉翁之意：
That Taiwan has remained a free democracy, independent from China, is a story of successful deterrence
AUKUS represents a judgment, a gamble even
Natasha Kassam is Director at the Lowy Institute.
 
 
 
既是對中國致命的打擊，也是對歐盟又一白眼
 
歐盟
歐洲如何被騙了？
法國馬上出任歐盟主席
 
在歐盟宣布亞太戰略前一天，這一決定也否定了歐盟的地位，馮德萊恩（Ursula von der Leyen）沒腦子不是第一次了
盎格魯撒克遜聯盟有把歐盟從亞太戰區中排擠出去的意思
 
 
 
歐盟今天宣布自己的印太戰略
東盟是歐盟的朋友
歐盟會出現在亞太，但影響有限
歐盟的獨立性
AUKUS also signals the end of President Emmanuel Macron's ambitions of constructing a strategic alliance with Australia and India, which he first hypothesized in 2018,
 
“The quicker we acknowledge something structural is changing in transatlantic relations, the better we can transform them in a way that serves the interests and security of both sides.”
 
 
對時局的影響
 
美國不僅對整個事態的可能性和嚴重性毫無預料，而且還是看不到其嚴重性，還是一副蔑視，不屑一顧的態度，把法國視為孩童，要給法國“出出氣”“出出氣就好了”
 
法國從來沒有召回大使（雖然這次隻是短期的），在川普期間也沒用，美國還是一副無所謂的樣子
美國的態度是覺得印太戰場跟歐洲沒什麽關係，其態度還暖味，不堅決
無疑，法國自然意識到自己沒有“把中國封死在第一島鏈”那樣的本事，所以有一種倡導和平的傾向，自然也就更具包容性，不把中國視為敵人，默克爾的德國更沒有這種想法，這跟美國的霸權意識是衝突的，從這個角度，美國踩死法國即使不是必然的結局，也是不在乎的根源，因為法國在擋路，將之踢到一邊隻是正常的行為
 
 
戰爭風險大增，都是美國的因數
Two stand out. The most important is the hawkish domestic US consensus on China
The second is America’s allergy to trade and investment deals
美國不能在經濟上提供任何機會，隻能用武，結果加劇衝突的可能性
 
pushed to postpone a key EU-US trade meetin
signals to Europe that “it is not perceived as a global player with whom the United States will gain [from a deeper] co-operation, at least in the Indo-Pacific,”
大家都是大人，能明白，幾句話哄哄是沒用的
英國故事
Australian officials say it was not in their interest to alert Paris; keeping the French deal alive heaped pressure on Biden to agree a deal that would bring huge industrial rewards to the US大家各自有自己的小算盤
Johnson’s inner circle said they had thought through the consequences for the Macron relationship
“There was a bigger prize at stake,”
 
 
美國周一早上宣布對歐盟已經接種疫苗的放行，這是美國拖了好久後腿才做出的決定，之前一直壓著歐盟，就是不放，盡管歐盟的接種和疫情管控都遠優於美國，小道說此舉完全是為了給歐盟息怒，不清楚的是美國是不是一直留著這一手就為了今天，還是一直留著，今天派上用場了。
 
除此之外，外長布林肯還馬上要求和法國外長在聯合國會議上碰頭，拜登也主動要與馬克龍通話，法國外長已經拒絕了布林肯的要求，拜登到時會說什麽？
歐盟三大頭都已表態，不接受美英澳的（無恥）行為
歐盟將會更加獨立
跟拜登蜜月半年多就覺得破裂，那不是小鬧，而是這個關係本質出了問題，也許是美國從來就沒有把歐盟當成“反華核心盟友”，隻是利用，但中國又不是一個可以結交的對象，歐盟如果寄望於調節、重組，那還是陷在幻覺之中
 
The slogan of democracy provides a fig leaf that allows them to continue speaking as if—and maybe even believing that—they’re acting in the universal interest
 
美歐翻臉與中歐結盟不是一回事，歐盟一直想保持一定的獨立性，但在中國的威逼下，大有與美國形成反華戰線的衝動，但這種統一策劃統一行動的戰線是沒有了，但歐盟反華的風氣還在，隻不過現在會留一手，不會趕盡殺絕
 
美國並不想與歐洲鬧矛盾，但美國有自己的打算，而且是自己的打算是天下唯一重要的，大家都要圍著美國轉，拜登的兩論，“盟友論”“民主價值論”，我在半年前就說那是懵人的，是為了把西方籠絡到自己反華陣營之中，當不涉及利益的時候，大家都覺得挺受用，等到拜登真的把大國爭霸（Great Power Compitition，國際關係裏的一種關係和策略，已經好幾年成為美國的國策，但拜登賣個關子，居然把大家哄住了，然而即使是美國國內也不再買拜登的賬了，大家都知道拜登實在哄騙傻白甜）
 
 determination to weigh foreign and security policy decisions based on a clear-eyed and cold-hearted calculation of U.S. interests
“France will have gotten mad without getting even, never a good idea in politics or diplomacy.”美國人就這樣France’s ability and willingness, alone among European allies, to project force decisively beyond its borders還是沒用，美國覺得法國沒本事，反而礙事，幹脆踢掉，心狠手辣
美英澳協議是美國向世界表態的一個關鍵決定，你敢說美國不狠，不把主力放在亞洲，不敢跟中國開戰？
Judge Biden by his actions, not his rhetoric
 
In some glimmer of face saving news, there were indications earlier this week that von der Leyen would make transatlantic relations a centre-point of her State of the Union speech. In the end, she didn't and it barely featured. Which turned out to be for the best
 
美國馬上出來說“法國是關鍵盟友”，晚了，耍孩子嗎？
"This makes Europeans realize that maybe some of Trump's policies, beyond the scandals and the tweets, were not an aberration but signaled a deeper shift away from Europe," 美國智庫還是指望“中國威脅論”會讓法國、歐洲回心轉意
 
印度再問，如果美國能欺騙一個大西洋公約組織成員，核心盟友，那“小不點”盟友會有什麽待遇呢？
 
馬來西亞、印尼擔心軍備競賽，不過，發對聲音不足，也是對中國的白眼，
日本印度台灣稱好
菲律賓好像是支持（未必出自總統之口），
馬來西亞最大聲
 
德國
France, with its network of overseas territories, is the only European nation with real skin in the Indo-Pacific game.照樣被推落井
although Biden is keen for Europe’s support in the competition with China, the officials in charge of his Indo-Pacific strategy do not see this as a top priority
one senior U.S. official I spoke to pointed to a rush at the top levels of the National Security Council to deliver a big win for Biden after the embarrassment of Afghanistan.  France was an afterthought as officials scrambled to get the deal done ahead of a meeting of Quad leaders on September 24
He has made clear that he has no intention of joining the United States in a coalition against China. Macron is an advocate of European strategic autonomy罪
The submarine deal, and France’s fierce reaction to it, puts Germany in the awkward position of having to choose between
 “What is happening to the French is what happens when you are strategically irrelevant,” a German defense official told me. “It can happen to us.”
 Laschet and Scholz have been outspoken about what they do not want: economic decoupling, a new Cold War, and being forced to choose between Washington and Beijing
 
代價
 
 
拜登要挽回（上周）
 
 
 
美國軍火商樂壞了
 
 
 
歐盟要求澳大利亞道歉，否則自貿協議休了，這就是一個台階，
 
The French ambassador to EU yesterday briefed his 26 fellow counterparts on Aukus and “underlined the strategic issue that the American approach poses to the EU as a whole”, a diplomatic source told Politico.
He also called on the EU to be “more present” in the Indo-Pacific.
 
美英澳核潛艇協議看上去爽，但首先挑起了盎格魯撒克遜和歐洲的對立，很顯然這不是美國想要的，這有兩個可能性，一是美國根本沒意識到，歐盟不舒服，但頂多發發脾氣，另一種可能性是知道歐洲肯定不高興，但隻能把苦果子咽下去，因為歐盟已經在自己的勸說下把中國當成頭號大敵，為了共同對抗中國，這種損失是小事，會顧全大局的。但這是個戰略性的誤判。
 
法國是西方所有國家裏在太平洋有最多領土的（僅次於美奧），而且有上百萬發工資在那裏工作生活，法國的印太戰略是所有國家裏最有模有樣的，法國把與澳大利亞的潛艇協議當成在
 
澳大利亞的賭博
如果你從奧的角度來看，奧的選擇是意識到中國的威脅，已經不是潛在的威脅，而是直接的威脅，當然這首先是中國對南海主權的態度，如果中國“霸占了”整個南海，那麽奧覺得中國跑到奧門口是遲早的事，這跟中國這麽說沒關係，因為西方就是這麽想的，如果他們自己強大了，也會跑到其他國家前示威，所以整個西方都自然覺得中國一旦強調肯定會這麽做，
如果美中真的打起來，不是在澳大利亞附近，而是在台灣，中國把美國擊敗了，那澳大利亞怎麽辦？這種可能性是有的，而且越來越高，而且即使美中不開戰，但中國的海軍軍艦越來越多，多到夾著美軍開，美國最終還是有可能頂不住，從亞洲撤出去
 
 Washington’s gesture, this commitment of American military and technological prowess, is hugely significant. But it is no guarantee the United States is prepared to enter into a new Cold War-style contest with China
The size of its economy alone makes it one of the mightiest adversaries the United States has faced in more than a century. So the United States would need a very good reason to take on a power as great as China.
Why should the United States commit itself to a contest with China when the stakes are less than existential?
美國在亞洲的目的是霸權，但不影響美國的生存，霸權等於生存是美國統治階層灌輸給美國老百姓的雞湯，這種想法是不是會永久保留下去，誰也說不清。美國的90後和00後壓倒性的反對美國充當世界警察，等到澳大利亞拿到核潛艇，美國變卦是無法排除的，因為美國是個民主國家。
 
 
美英澳協議是奧向美國表忠的“賣身契”，是以放棄澳大利亞主權為基礎的，因為既然澳大利亞把國防完全寄托在美國身上，那就失去了獨立性，以後想改也沒法改了。
If so, AUKUS may be stretched thin, seeking to cover many foreign policy and strategic objectives across three democracies weakened at home.
一個沒有策略的協議，因為它不改變現狀（如奧缺乏自衛和進攻的能力），也沒有改變現狀的計劃
 
奧英美潛艇協議的意義並不在潛艇，首先這潛艇20年內沒貨，第二20年後這潛艇還能不能用根本就是問題，說中國目前反潛能力差，但20年後台灣早就了結了，技術也不再是航母潛艇了，所以這協議有另外一層含義。
 
那是不是澳大利亞借此把美國綁住，成為自己的保護人呢？有這個意思，但美奧已經是盟友，有互衛協議，如果澳大利亞受到中國攻擊，美國是會來幫忙的，向奧宣戰也就是向美宣戰。
 
奧媒漫畫
 
美國的核潛艇技術一直是美國國家機密，隻有英國有（與法國不同，法國有自己的技術，英國沒有），與奧分享，就是升級了，莫裏森強調這是個永久性的協議，澳大利亞將永遠和美國站在一起，這就是以全麵投向美國來換取美國的保護，核潛艇是個象征性的武器，因為它是進攻性武器，這就表示奧原以為美國兩肋插刀，既然如此，美國也應為奧兩肋插刀。所以歸根結底這分協議對澳大利亞來說發誓表忠，奧太急迫，用了甩了法國這種手段來表達自己的決心。
 
對美國來說，這又是另一種含義。美國不需要向奧表忠——雖然大家還在懷疑美國許諾的可靠程度有多少，但要向全世界表明美國是真的把主力移到亞洲了，尤其是在阿富汗丟醜之後要有個表示，這是美國願意同法國一刀的又一個原因。同時，美英澳時第一個以反華為目的的軍事聯盟，這是該聯盟對美國真正的意義，美國這是直接向中國表露出軍事威脅，中國一直在打壓澳大利亞，因為中國對美國沒轍，隻能找小個子的欺負，美國也沒什麽回應的手段，這次來個一不做二不休，中國用經濟手段來傳遞軍事威脅，美國把經濟訛詐當成軍事威脅來對待，一下子給中國一個響亮的回應。這一軍事聯盟明確是向中國暗示美國有決心有能力在第一島鏈之內擊敗中國，奧可以成為美國中程導彈基地，成為對抗中國二炮的利器，既然奧拍了胸脯不怕中國，那美國就可以借用這個基地（而不是夏威夷）來做後備力量。
 
 
 
 
英國的動機
英國丟不掉自己幾百年的帝國夢，老覺得自己是一號人物，總得在世界舞台上有個表演，可實力不行，怎麽辦？寧願把文化輸出和外援砍了，也要把航母派到中國門前走一圈
Current events reveal an isolated, mid-sized nation battling to maintain its international relevance，自顧不暇，蘇格蘭獨立是遲早的事，那時英國可能排在前十之外（現在第五），大家得質疑其常任理事國的資格。莊生這個帝國夢叫“全球大英”（Global Britain）
抱美國大腿是英國實現“全球大英”夢的唯一出路，如果你當不上霸主了，跟著霸主耀武揚威也有點霸主的意思，尤其是有時霸主不好說話，
 
 
莊生的行動在英國國內得到媒體的廣泛支持，英國帝國夢未死
 
 
 
自尊心，“價值”，不是普世，但也是價值
 
捉衿見肘，還是騙子？
 
美國是不是覺得遏製中國這一事關美國生存的百年不遇大變局靠不得他人，即使盟友也靠不得，所以無所謂得罪不得罪，必須親自上陣，澳大利亞主動打頭陣，加強了美國控製全球，但集中主力對付最大威脅的戰略，所以其他一切都是次要的
 
拜登馬克龍通話，拜登算是間接承認行為不妥，但這就解決問題了嗎？第一，法國的印太戰略被廢，得重新布局，第二，法國軍工受重創，兩者相互加劇了所遭受的打擊的嚴重性，第三，法國不僅聲譽嚴重受損，還其影響力還被質疑，這是美國道歉所不能彌補的，而且美國是真的帶有歉意，還隻是為自己過於魯莽後悔，或者對法國公開發問蓄怒？
 
除了實質性的傷害（產業受巨大打擊），能一句話就過去了？
“黑夜裏一記悶棍”，美國告誡大家，為了扼殺中國，誰都不會顧，澳大利亞也是“人不為己天誅地滅”，你們法國咋娘娘的？
 
 
原計劃針對中國的美歐技術聯盟，也蒙上陰影
 
“外”厲“內”荏的英國
搶汽油，因為沒司機，都是東歐來的，被脫歐趕走了，還“優惠”請人家回來
食品奇缺，物價攀升
同時要派航母到太平洋
industry leaders across the economy have warned about chronic labor shortages — of truck drivers, yes, but also fruit pickers, meat processors, waiters and health care workers — disrupting supply chains and impeding businesses
A master shape-shifter, unburdened by any sense of accountability or honesty, he thrives in conditions of adversity
英國需要的首相
 
美媒：拜登聯合國大會首秀麵臨挑戰，如何向盟友證明自己不是特朗普 (guancha.cn)
“We’re not seeking — say it again, we are not seeking — a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs,” he said. Yet in describing what he called an “inflection point in history,” he talked about the need to choose whether new technologies would be used as “a force to empower people or deepen repression.” At one point he explicitly referred to the targeting of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China.
The president’s senior aides, at least publicly, have been dismissing the idea that China and the United States, with the world’s largest economies, were dividing...But in private, some officials concede
 
As an ironist myself I can’t hide some amusement at the way Biden has turned into the Trump caricature that once populated the nightmares of anti-Trumpers, including Biden, the first of those anti-Trumpers
A clash with liberal and internationalist hero Macron involving the first ambassadorial recall in more than two centuries of history? Trump or Biden?
 
 
A joint French-German approach to China combining engagement with firm criticism of China’s human rights record could be the foundation of a distinctly more conciliatory European stance on the world’s most pressing strategic issue
 
 
 
 
蹩腳拜登
 
Biden’s foreign policy is a faithful continuation of Donald Trump’s and a repudiation of Barack Obama’s
But the growing concerns go well beyond any one episode. A senior European diplomat noted that, in dealings with Washington on everything from vaccines to travel restrictions, the Biden policies were “'America First’ in logic, whatever the rhetoric.” A Canadian politician said that if followed, Biden’s “Buy America” plans are actually more protectionist than Trump’s. Despite having criticized Trump’s tariffs repeatedly, Biden has kept nearly all of them. (In fact, many have been expanded since most exemptions to them have been allowed to expire.)
Biden and his team often criticized Trump for his assault on the rules-based international system. But how does one rebuild such a system while embracing naked protectionism, unilateral sanctions, limited consultations and America First policies on vaccines and even travel?
英國空姐：“It seems that these days you Americans just want a double standard that helps you no matter what others think.”
 
《外交事務》The Age of America First
Washington’s Flawed New Foreign Policy Consensus
外交老手哈斯（Richard Haass）
 
 
口頭上說一套，事實上做另一套，是曆屆美國政府的慣用手段，但沒有那一個像拜登當局那麽公開，媒體那麽配合
盧斯說出這樣的話，也難為了
拜登和川普是貌離神合，都是美國第一
But being likeable is not the same as being a good ally. On that count, Europeans are starting to see continuities between Biden and Trump
The most striking is that Biden does not much value their opinion, even if he seems to be listening.
It is not the first time Biden has blindsided Europe — and it can boomerang. In May, the president announced that he would ask for the suspension of global vaccine patents at the World Trade Organization. The move was bold and unexpected. But it was stillborn.  It caught the Europeans by surprise and they killed it
The US and its European allies have yet to forge a convincing common front on China and look unlikely to do so.
As a result, the COP26 climate change summit that the UK is due to host in November risks becoming a train wreck. The British government is touting pledges from the private sector — a familiar augury of political failure
Biden talks a big game on global warming but is not walking the walk
John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, is travelling the world urging countries to do the things America will not do
國內（政治）條件不成熟不是借口，因為這隻能證明你這個國家不行，不能承擔責任，更沒有資格充當領導
 
推翻美國民主，變天
 
 
Robert Kagan. His argument can be reduced to two main elements. First, the Republican party is defined not by ideology, but by its loyalty to Trump. Second, the amateurish “stop the steal” movement of the last election has now morphed into a well-advanced project
He must now understand that he will need devoted loyalists, of whom there will be plenty, to run the departments responsible for justice, homeland security, internal revenue, espionage and defence. He will surely put officers personally loyal to himself in charge of the armed forces
川普已經開始清洗黨內不同意見者，不願意為之效勞的，在各州以超越通過民主投票的反映的民意，用美國的間接民主奪走選舉結果
“As has so often been the case in other countries where fascist leaders arise, their would-be opponents are paralysed in confusion and amazement at this charismatic authoritarian.”
Chart of survey responses showing that the US is a country divided and despondent
But neither the electoral system nor the Republican party will go back to what it was. The latter is now a radical party with a reactionary agenda.川普百年之後，小川普會接著出現
 
有色人種群體逃離民主黨
 
After an eight-month review of the United States’ trade policies toward China, the Biden administration has concluded that Donald Trump was right and Joe Biden was wrong. On the campaign trail, Biden relentlessly attacked Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, calling them “disastrous.” Now, he has adopted those same “disastrous” policies.
 
 
你們這些糊塗蟲，狂妄自大，不照照鏡子，以為把中國當成人民公敵就有了目標，有了目的了，西方的衰落絕大部分是咎由自取，川普連任才是對自由民主最大的威脅
 
沒人信拜登了
 
 
“Capitalism will destroy this country,” read one sign in the window of a Dollar General in Eliot, Maine, this spring. “If you don’t pay people enough to live their lives, why should they slave away for you?”
‘Everything Going the Wrong Way’
 
 
沒錯，拜登就是小川普
川普現象不是曇花一現
 
 
 
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