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(2021-05-05 18:23:07) 下一個
【美國的基建】
有些時候你聽到拜登說他怎麽帶領美國、自由世界與中國鬥，真聽累了，怎麽沒了中國就不知道怎麽活了呢？美國人民對到海外推銷民主很不順，拜登就將之說成“捍衛”民主，因為民主與專製之鬥已經到了你死我活（existentialOpinion | Joe Biden: My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies - The Washington Post）的地步，他的使命必須保證民主的生存。
 
累不累啊？真的
 
 
 
【習近平和戰狼】
Beijing’s self-imposed problems make it a less threatening challenger than it seems
 
 “Dialogue is now conditional on us not criticizing China,” a senior German official told me. “We can’t even have a rational conversation about the sanctions.”
 
肛拭子
 
 
【台灣局勢】
 
We Should Not Underestimate China’s Military Ambitions - The Dispatch
troll Frum
To be a true threat to the United States, China must combine a desire to harm the United States or its interests with the ability to do so. Unfortunately, Beijing increasingly has demonstrated both.
In this year’s Annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, the U.S. intelligence community is explicit on this point, calling China increasingly a “near-peer competitor” that has “demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies.”
多少是因為美國相對勢力的此消彼長？
美國已經人為中國對外軍事幹預即將成為事實
One such warning: China will replace America. China is on track to surpass us economically, militarily and geopolitically.
it employs effective economic principles, technology and education. China has replaced socialism with capitalism, stolen technology and educated large cohorts of its people — by 2016, it boasted eight times as many STEM graduates a year as the United States
 We must constrain China’s economic predation by partnering with our allies and friends to deny China free access to our markets unless it agrees to abide by global rules of fair trade
 
中國政府很多時候確實為了與美國對著幹，總是為一些流氓國家辯護，
 have run headlong into China’s paramount priority of defending its authoritarian system from foreign interference.
好像不加上“authoritarian”一字中國就無條件接受了似的
 
China, even if it rises, does not present much of a security threat to the United States
 
台灣最為中國最大的核心利益【注：中國有少數聲音改善、提高人民生活在當前高於台灣】，也就成了美國的一張牌，美國對台灣的認識也逐漸明朗，台灣的民主，幾千萬人人的性命是次要的，台灣在美國圍堵中國的第一島鏈的位置才是關鍵的，到了勝也台灣敗也台灣的地步。
 
主要是核武器軍種：
 
 
 
不但美國正式以政府名義與台灣接觸，歐洲也是
中國的“民憤”
 
台灣
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
【澳大利亞】
 
 
【與歐盟關係】
"Europe sees itself as a moderating force in the escalating competition between the United States and China. For economic and political reasons, it is pushing back against the notion of a zero-sum world and refusing to choose sides. Walking this geopolitical tightrope will be increasingly challenging. China may welcome a nonaligned Europe, but U.S. politicians will find it very difficult to swallow." -- Noah Barkin
G7 takes aim at China over Taiwan Strait – POLITICO（七強公布好像沒有《政客》描述的那麽嚴重）
 
資本與價值，國家與幫派，老一代與新一代
 
七強
要殺中國，還是救世界？
 
 
前美國高官，觀點不占主流
 
2021.06：又是一個模糊的信號
 
德國
語氣很強硬，很多“歐洲價值”“歐洲利益”，但也不是說死
 
 
"The phrases I heard throughout the day were about coherence, about collaboration, about co-operation," said one.
"C-words abound," agreed another, adding "consensus" and "convergence."
So yes, they thought it went well. And after all, why wouldn't it?
 
 
 
 
 
中國輸掉歐盟這場戰
 
 
 
Line chart of EU exports to the UK as a % of total exports outside the EU (3-month rolling average) showing The UK's dwindling share of EU exports
 
 
 
 
七國聯軍和其挑戰
 
 
【脫鉤】
The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties
Tokyo Will Not Break With Beijing—No Matter What Washington Wants
 
 
 
自1972年中日邦交正常化以來，雖然兩國關係風風雨雨，一波三折，但經過長期的合作，中日兩國經濟相互依存度不斷提高，形成了 “ 你中有我，我中有你 ” 局麵。在雙方的共同努力下，兩國經貿合作已經形成 “ 全方位、寬領域、多層次 ” 的合作格局，成為中日關係的“壓艙石”和“推進器”。中國改革開放40多年來，日本通過對華貿易、直接投資、開發援助、科技合作等方式對中國現代化建設給予了寶貴支持，同時，日本也獲得了巨大市場和豐厚利益，這是合作共贏的結果
 
大家知道所謂“壓艙石”在特定場合下就不再是壓艙石（如中美關係）
 
2010 年中國GDP超過日本成為世界第二大經濟體，日本失落感增強，戰略焦慮凸顯。從中日關係的大背景來看，以2010年9月 “ 撞船事件 ” 為轉折點，中日關係轉冷，而在2012年日本政府悍然宣布釣魚島 “ 國有化 ” 後兩國關係降至冰點。伴隨著中日政治關係的惡化，雙邊經濟關係也出現劇烈波動。構成中日經濟關係的四大支柱：雙邊貿易、雙邊投資、財政金融合作和區域經濟一體化幾乎全線受阻。中日貿易額在2011年達到3429.9億美元高點之後，2012—2016年出現連續5年負增長；日本對華直接投資在2012年達到73.8億美元後， 2013—2016年出現連續4年負增長，投資額降至高峰期的一半以下。同期中日財政合作、金融合作也幾乎停滯。中日韓FTA談判、 RCEP談判也受到一定程度的影響。
 
據說日本企業界說服安倍是和解的主要原因，但香港國安法和引發的台灣事態對日本右派有一定的影響，
 
2017年以來，隨著中日關係的改善，中日經貿關係也隨之得以恢複。2017—2018年，中日貿易和日本對華直接投資雙雙出現了兩年的正增長。2018年可以說是中日關係和中日經濟關係的豐收年，這一年中日雙邊貿易額恢複至 3276.6億美元，日本對華直接投資恢複到38.1億美元
 
 
 
 
中國國企逃避管製？
 
香港真的衰落了嗎？
無疑中國過狠了，中國的國家主義集團麵臨的後果還不夠大
 
 
【半導體】
 
 
 
【美國】
美國是怎麽運作的？
2021年以來的美中關係
 
澳大利亞：
 
 
 
不意外，意外是有人去調查
 
 
時代變了
 
零和思維

 

美國克製派能站住腳嗎？
Naturally, the spat played out publicly in D.C.’s equivalent of a high school paper, Politico
 
by stipulating that “the United States Government shall not place any restrictions on the ability of officials of the Department of State and other United States Government departments and agencies to interact directly and routinely with counterparts in the Taiwan government.”
 
 
 
 “If China sent special operations forces or used lethal drone strikes in a half-dozen African or Asian countries to combat potential anti-Chinese terrorism, Washington would lose its mind. That’s American exceptionalism.”
 
真如此嗎？
德國替美國擋槍？
 
 
Macron slams ‘Anglo-Saxons’ for hindering exports of jabs and vital ingredients
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
馬裏奧一人就扭鑽局麵，中國政策的脆弱性
 
As a result, the U.S. government laid claim not only to vast quantities of finished COVID-19 vaccines but also to vaccine components and equipment all along the supply chain, according to a Reuters review of more than a dozen contracts involving some major suppliers.
 
But the waiver would not address a less conspicuous but equally pressing problem: the growing worldwide shortage of vaccine ingredients and manufacturing equipment. The United States has a tight grip on a significant amount of those materials, such as filters, tubing and specialized disposable bags essential to making vaccines.
美國說美國不是禁運，就是產量不夠，但美國優先
Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, briefly mentioned in her statement about Biden’s patent decision that the administration would “work to increase the raw materials needed” to make vaccines. She did not elaborate
大家不這麽覺得，這大家可不是中國，而是其他第三世界
 
 
A dose of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, for example, requires 280 components from multiple countries, according to the company. The idea of moving from what Okonjo-Iweala calls “just in time to just in case to just at home” is harder than it looks.
 
 
 
 
【中國，中國經濟】
“中國”是什麽？Thread by @SamoBurja
新任駐美大使秦剛
 
 
 
 
 
老圖：
Global map showing US or China with larger goods trade
 
華爾街什麽時候被批鬥？
中國提升香港地位
 
 
 
國際貨幣基金組織貿易數據（滯後一年）
 
 
美國關稅確實打擊中國出口
 
2021.05進出口
 
真的？
It has become apparent that American business and industry have shifted decisively away from Chinese sourcing, in part because of China’s nationalist positioning during the pandemic but also because of more lasting and fundamental cost considerations
 
 
【中國的治理思維】
 
 
 
 
 
【人物】
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
中國試圖認識美國新一代基層領導人
六四學運工運和民運
 
虎媽
 
 
【冠疫】
 
合眾社諸多揭露中國抗疫失誤的報道之一，測試盒子產業的黑暗
 
【印度】
 
 
稱中國製造商“坐地起價”，將製氧機等等商品價格抬高了35%~40%，甚至連運費也多了20%
 
 
“This next bill can be almost completely characterized as investment in the future.”
“A highway bill cannot grow into a multi-trillion dollar catch-all bill, or it will lose Republican support,”
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
莫迪自己砸了
Bar chart of Estimated change in number of people in each income tier due to the global recession (m) showing India’s poor grew while middle class shrank in 2020
Bar chart of Estimated number of people in each income tier in 2020 before and after the global recession (m) showing The pandemic sets back growth of India’s middle class
 
 
印度與地緣政治
 
 
【人口】
 
【航母】
 
【雜】
西媒的“白人至上主義”：Thread by @SiyandaWrites
 
The British Industrial Revolution lifted Britain's growth rate to 1.1% per capita per year over the fifty-year period starting around 1820.
The Revolution involved a population of approximately 30 million in Britain, and some 50-60 million in the rest of Europe.
 
 
【習近平的“東升西降”和拜登的“西升東降”】
 
中煤：演講中，拜登四次提到中國，稱美國歡迎與中國競爭，不會尋求衝突，還稱美國將保持在印太地區保持強大的軍事存在，“這不是尋求衝突，而是為了預防衝突的發生。”在談到當前的科技發展時，拜登表示，美國已經在科學技術研發的全球競爭中落後，“中國和其他國家正在迅速逼近”。
【#拜登 上任百日演說四次提中國：歡迎與中國競爭，不會尋求衝突】28日，拜登在國會參眾兩院聯席會議上發表演講，這是拜登作為總統首次在國會發表演講。
在4月29日的例行記者會上，汪文斌在回應美國官員口中所謂的中國“脅迫外交”的指控時表示，脅迫外交這頂帽子，沒有國家比美國更適合戴。也沒有國家能從美國手中奪走這個專利。美國用實際行動向世界詮釋了什麽是脅迫外交。中國是“脅迫外交”的受害者，而非加害者，不管誰搞“脅迫外交”，我們都堅決反對
 
 
 
【川普2024真會把美國重新變得偉大？】
 
2016年曾經仔細追蹤（美國）大選，後來發現“預測”純屬瞎扯，2020年也就不再把“大選預測”當作一回事，雖然說了幾次說起自己的看法【1，2，3】，但並沒有將之視為什麽預測，不過有一樣是真的，沒有冠疫，川普連任定了【4】，拜登勝出，也就幾萬票的差別【5】，很多人說如果共和黨是其他候選人，拜登就沒有任何實力當選，當時我說過川普拜登像“兩個蒼白衰老的白老頭在吵架”【6】：
 
 
“一種江河日落的感覺”，“唯一會長久下去的，是川普精神”【7】，但是僅僅幾個月，大家好像都把這忘了，拜登一下子又成了自由世界的領袖。拜登當局時時處處在談美國人的初心，美國人的價值，美國的成就，美國的能力，美國在世界的位置，美國在曆史的地位，推行了很多撥亂反正的措施，任用的也是有能力的人，在動用美國財政實力實行冠疫紓困的時候，兩屆政府都沒有手軟，動用了過五萬億，拜登上台以後，更是以中國這世紀挑戰為理由鞭策全國，推出過四萬億的經濟刺激新政，更是推行工業政策以大搞國家資本主義【9】，不過這幾萬億的經濟刺激並不完全是單純的經濟投資，而是試圖改變美國的財富分配機製，以福利的形式把財富分發到社會底層使得他們在市場中有一個發揮的機會。
都會告訴他要“堅守本心”
 
美國重新成為維護國際秩序的霸主拜登則在國外到處興建“民主陣營”，在國內大撒幣，，用以振興美國昔日的光輝【9，10，11】，可美國的現實大家把過去四年的噩夢給忘了。
 
東盟將會讓美中失望
 
 
 
 
But partners from Japan to Australia are nervous about one thing: the lack of a strong trade and economic component to his Asia strategy.
“The presence of an aircraft carrier or destroyer is not going to demonstrate the type of value that many American allies and partners most seek.”
 
美國幾年之內不會有任何行動，原因是什麽？
    “We need to revisit why agreements like the TPP became so fragile here, reformulate our policies . . . continue to engage our partners, but along the lines of reformed policies so that these very important commitments that we take with our partners don’t fall apart and are more durable and sustainable going forward,” Tai added
 
即使美國汽油公司被網侵而中斷服務，也成了拜登當局的陰影
 
 
蔡妮（Liz Cheney）被撤職
表麵上川普下台時聲名狼藉，共和黨似乎有機會與之斷絕關係，但對2020年大選結果了解的人都知道他有廣泛的群眾基礎，大家不是不知道他的德性，在對他有足夠認識之後還依然投他的票，說明川普代表著廣泛的利益，大多數熱投票隻集中在一兩項與自己有關的政策上，其他的必須避免考慮，否則你沒法找到一個自己滿意的代表，川普的人氣正是因為他的很多政策其實符合大家的願望。
 
說軍事霸權主義在美國越來越站不住腳了，這是
 
川普尚未公開表示他是不是會在2024年再次競選，但
 
拜登說他不會采用赤字支出，這句話有兩重意思，一是必須加稅，二是如果加不了稅，那就不花了
 
 
 
左派專欄
 if the current Republican Party controls both Houses of Congress on Jan. 6, 2025, there’s no way if a Democrat is legitimately elected they will get certified as the president-elect.”
蔡妮
 
別忘了，美國對立的兩麵連基本事實是什麽都沒有定論
 
 
 
 
 
 
西方左右政黨的群眾基礎在過去幾十年的轉變，今天的極化是延續。左右對立一直是極化，為什麽今天更加激烈？
 
 
西方舔拜登，說他如何民主，有理想
 
 
【資料】
 
【通脹、就業】
 
 
 
China's PPI surged in April while CPI remained relatively subdued
Wages are lagging
同比數據不合適
 
 
 
Nearly 70 percent of the value of a typical solar panel assembled in the United States accrues to firms in China or Chinese firms operating across Southeast Asia
offshore wind supply chain is largely in Europe
 
Many managers are unwilling to raise wages and prices enough to keep up, as they worry that demand will ebb in a few months and leave them with permanently higher payroll costs
澳大利亞：
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
疲弱的需求
either by spending on needed infrastructure or by boosting household income.
 
 
 
 
 
 
【“債務陷阱”是如何出籠的？】
 
一個多月前，為了對抗中國的一帶一路，拜登建議（英國總理）莊生也來一個：
這就是拜登唯一的一句話，可笑。英國的財政開支自己還緩不過來，莊生又要第二艘航母，拜登自己還要新的3萬億大政府，“民主陣營”，美國英國自己不帶頭？
 
 
當時媒體沒給任何細節，這幾天新的出來了，拜登要把民主陣營一帶一路加到七強（G7）與歐盟擴大會議上，不僅僅是一句話，而是個議題，
“So far we are trying to counter Belt and Road mostly with buzzwords and lofty policy papers,” said one senior EU diplomat. “But unfortunately there is no real geopolitical strategy or plan which is consistent and coherent. There’s a real need to work together on infrastructure projects and avoid countries becoming over-reliant on China.”
 
前利比裏亞工作部長
 
BY BRAHMA CHELLANEY
 
 
 
中國的一帶一路，按英國智庫漆鹹樓（Chatham House，正式名稱為皇家國際事務研究所，The Royal Institute of International Affairs）綜合西方的解釋， 是中國的一個地緣政治戰略，其目的是在歐亞大陸甚至整個世界建立以中國為中心的新秩序，包含了 “深思熟慮的中國大戰略”，旨在“重新奪回亞洲的地緣政治主導權，挑戰]美國的主導權，建立以中國為中心的秩序”，是一個“地緣政治和外交攻勢”，其目的“無異於改寫當前的地緣政治格局，建立世界主導權”，這些觀點也成為美國政府的看法，將之視為。漆鹹樓很權威
 
As the BRI has developed over the years, projects have been largely scaled back, and the ones we’ve seen in the last few years tend to be more in touch with local conditions.
The PRC has learned these lessons, and is getting better at this kind of work. The BRI isn’t going anywhere (it’s Xi’s signature FP and is in the CCP constitution) and the liberal world would do well not to write it off due to a few early failures
 
注：《2018年度中國對外直接投資統計公報》顯示，2018年末，中國對外直接投資存量達1.98萬億美元。）中國金融機構以及中國發起成立的多邊開發機構亞投行在“一帶一路”沿線國家的貸款餘額約為3500億美元，其中絕大部分是貸給外國的主權機構
 
Bruno Maçães
China pulled its most brilliant coup when it convinced everyone in the West that the Belt and Road was about infrastructure
 
Joke
 
Loans are not obviously predatory; secrecy is sometimes a condition
These include confidentiality clauses that prevent borrowers from revealing the terms of the loans, informal collateral arrangements that benefit Chinese lenders over other creditors and promises to keep the debt out of collective restructurings - dubbed by the authors as “no Paris Club” clauses, the report said. The contracts also give substantial leeway for China to cancel loans or accelerate repayment, it added.
 
Maria Adele Carrai is an assistant professor in global China studies at New York University Shanghai
肯尼亞鐵路，To critics, Kenya’s railway project represents another example of Chinese-owed debt and China’s growing influence in Africa. Indeed, many commentators point out that Kenya has an estimated $9 billion in China-financed debt — and note their concerns that a growing number of projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative,
My research on two Chinese railway megaprojects in East Africa — the Nairobi-Mombasa line and Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa-Djibouti project — suggests the fears that China is upending development guidelines might be misplaced
I analyzed primary sources like Chinese government corporate social responsibility
Chinese government and state-owned enterprises have made CSR a priority, yet these two railway megaprojects show that implementation largely depends on local conditions,  suggests insufficient Chinese government enforcement of CSR policies encourages Chinese organizations and enterprises to follow host-government guidelines. At times, this means Chinese companies resort to what I call “adaptive governance” 主要的問題是中企【如果發現東道主國的法律要求低過中國政府的，就】采用東道主國的，這是
Beijing has actively worked to increase CSR within Chinese state-owned enterprises and banks since the early 2000s. The central government, ever cognizant of its international reputation, has vigorously promoted higher standards for state-owned and private Chinese enterprises operating abroad. Hundreds of Chinese regulations and codes require Chinese companies to respect local customs and cultures, honor social responsibilities and protect labor and the environment. In both Kenya and Ethiopia, however, the impact of China’s national directives appears to be limited. Here’s what I found
肯尼亞由中交承包，埃塞俄比亞由中鐵承包
中交在肯尼亞做的不錯，群眾反應好，中鐵施工周期是兩倍，經營、財政都有問題
埃塞俄比的規矩就比較差，中鐵按照當地政府的要求，結果欠缺考慮，商業上也不成功。
 
Figure
Figure
 
Brussels responds to Podgorica’s request — and whether it will bail the country out of a project long deemed unviable — will help to shape the bloc’s relationship with the region.
“This is the first time that Montenegro or any other country from the western Balkans has made this type of outreach towards Brussels to combat rising Chinese influence."
Montenegro raised eyebrows in 2014 when it signed a deal with China’s ExIm Bank to finance 85 per cent of the cost of a road with a dollar-denominated loan worth almost $1bn. The first 41km section, a quarter of the total length, cost €20m per km, making it one of the most expensive highways per km in the world, said Spajic.
黑山共和國受惑，中國國企推銷，結果背上巨債，現在成了國際事件
Its decision has been scrutinised given that two separate feasibility studies, in 2006 and 2012, concluded that the highway was economically unviable. The government also signed a €54m contract with a Montenegrin-Chinese consortium for a thermal power plant just before it was ejected from office.
signed by the previous Montenegro government led by the Democratic Party of Socialists, which was ousted in August after 30 years in power.
胡說：
Observers said Montenegro’s plea was an opportunity for Brussels. “The EU should step in,” said Tena Prelec, a scholar at the University of Oxford who studies the region. “Montenegro is in the EU’s backyard: it would be, finally, a concrete way to show that the EU is indeed a player, a true geostrategic actor.”
 
非洲
 
Bruno Maçães, Dec 27, 2020
And this for me was the piece that least contributed to the debate, sending us back a few years in our understanding of what the Belt and Road is
Annual loans ($bn) showing China's overseas lending collapses
Boston University interactive
 
推動各國加強政治互信、經濟互融、人文互通
堅持對話協商、共建共享、合作共贏、交流互鑒，同沿線國家謀求合作的最大公約數
 
 
中國國內也很混亂
Based on the observation of its implementation, Beijing’s official statements, and my own research, I would argue it is a constantly changing group of policy settings, which encompasses almost all the various clarifications
 
In practice, the piecemeal realization of BRI projects is determined by local governments and their related political and economic interests via diverse and time-consuming bilateral interaction with Beijing
 
 
Yufan Huang is a PhD candidate in the government department of Cornell University
Chinese banks offered African countries significant debt restructuring before the pandemic and have continued to do so
中國主動與債務國協商遠超出西方報道
The G-20 effort marks the first time China is participating in multilateral debt relief. As Africa’s largest bilateral creditor, China holds at least 21 percent of African debt — and payments to China account for nearly 30 percent of 2021’s debt service, as shown in the figure below.
西方： they are not relaxing repayment requirements. Likewise, bondholders, who are responsible for 19 percent of 2021’s debt service, have held back from providing any debt relief.
Our research at the Johns Hopkins SAIS China-Africa Research Initiative (CARI) suggests that China has played a significant role in helping African countries to manage their debt. We documented 16 cases of debt restructuring worth $7.5 billion in 10 African countries between 2000 and 2019
Our research found that Chinese lenders have not pursued lawsuits in cases of debt default. We also found no asset seizures.
中國不總是讓步，“國家機構”和“商業機構”的手段也不一樣，但會針對特殊情況，鬆動、靈活
 
 
2021.02.01
 
克製智庫對美國國會新議案的評估：
“嫉妒”“詆毀”“破壞”
 
標準：
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy undertaking and the world’s largest infrastructure program, poses a significant challenge to U.S. economic, political, climate change, security, and global health interests
 
    China has not been the primary driver behind rising debt risks in the Pacific, although a continuation of business as usual would risk future debt problems in several countries.
    There is scope for a new Australian infrastructure financing facility to provide loans to the Pacific without causing debt problems, particularly as it has adopted key sustainable lending rules.
    Pacific nations have an opportunity to obtain more favourable financing from official development partners but care must be taken to avoid overly geopolitical aid.
 
 
台灣凶：
 
“一帶一路”項目受到一些關於債務償還方麵的質疑，您如何看待“一帶一路”項目中的風險與質疑？”
海南大學“一帶一路”研究院院長梁海明
 史誌欽清華大學“一帶一路”戰略研究院執行院長
 
How to frame something for what it is not
Trash #China is the thing. It works. It pays. It's a sport
https://theprint.in/economy/has-india-become-chinas-colony-seems-like-going-by-what-we-import-and-what-we-export/631656/
If this is to insult China, it will work. But it also insults @narendramodi
Great power competition doesn't have to be mean. But if one recalles
@PMOIndia
 
 
 
 
為什麽中國精英權貴都挺支持政府和習近平？因為精英權貴按定義就是既得利益者，既得利益就是在現有體製下得利，隻有極其理想主義者，近乎殉道那般執著的人才會對權利說不，結果正能量充斥一切輿論渠道，這跟美國的運作機製是一樣的，總統大肆吹捧減稅“給經濟帶來的好處”，而他自己陣營的隻盯著眼前的義憤，有意無意對減稅實質上損害自己的利益熟視無睹，
 
How Recipient Countries Shape China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Chatham House expose
This whole narrative misunderstands China and ignores the interests and agency of recipient countries
Sinologists have documented the reality of what they term fragmented authoritarianism, recounting fierce inter-agency rivalries and factionalism, which top leaders struggle to manage, even under Xi,
In reality, the idea of aggregating China’s long-standing infrastructure connectivity projects beneath a broad banner originated with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC),
as party-state agencies jostled for resources.
Disbursements start with requests from abroad, not Chinese planners. The whole edifice—especially today, with growth slowing, profitability collapsing, and surplus capacity endemic—is skewed towards helping Chinese businesses expand overseas
 
 
* Asia Society report warns that Chinese officials’ ‘laissez-faire’ attitudes mean projects are not being properly vetted in Southeast Asia
 
 
 
 
 
 
Letter to the Editor: Why China Will NOT Seize the Port of Mombasa if Kenya Defaults on SGR Debt - The China Africa Project
 
首先關於“戰狼外交”，各方議論較多。給我們貼這個標簽，至少是對中國外交的誤解。要知道，中國從來就是禮儀之邦，以和為貴，從沒有主動挑釁別人，也沒有跑到別人家門口更沒有到別人家裏去挑事。現在恰恰是別人到我們家門口耀武揚威，對我們的家務事橫加幹涉，還喋喋不休地對我們進行辱罵抹黑，我們無路可退，不得不奮起自衛，堅定捍衛國家利益和尊嚴。顯而易見，“戰狼外交”實際上是“中國威脅論”的又一翻版，是又一個“話語陷阱”，目的就是要讓我們打不還手，罵不還口，放棄抗爭
中國在世界顯得很孤立，尤其是在發達國家圈子內顯得很孤立，日韓在地理上離中國這麽近，經濟極其密切，但在國際關係和文化上和中國的抵觸是很大的，民意對中國也不佳，可是中國並不這麽覺得：
有人說中國在國際上四麵樹敵。這不是事實。我們從來都是廣交朋友、廣結善緣，恰恰是個別大國為了打壓遏製中國，脅迫他國選邊站隊，製造非友即敵的“寒蟬效應”。但即使在這樣的情況下，中國的“朋友圈”並沒有變小，而是越來越大。許多發展中國家和友好人士頂住壓力同中國開展合作，在國際場合為我仗義執言。截至目前，有近170個國家和國際組織參與共建“一帶一路”，中方倡議的“亞投行”成員國已增加到103個。在今年的聯大三委會上，70多個國家以單獨或共同發言等方式支持我們，有力挫敗了個別國家借涉港、涉疆問題搞反華行動的圖謀。中國候選人高票當選國際法院法官和國際海洋法法庭法官。中國支持的聯合國新冠疫情決議以169比2高票通過。這些數字和事實都表明，中國站在曆史正確的一邊，合民心，順潮流，朋友遍天下
 
一帶一路債務陷阱和Iraq Production Sharing Agreement (PSA)
 
 
 
老的一帶一路
一帶一路
 
 
一帶一路評估
還有這麽極端的
 
Brazilian vice-president: Embraer should now look to China
Nigerians living near a major Belt and Road project grew more positive toward China after it was completed
 
 
 
 
中國人為什麽缺少自我？
 
好幾年前北京大學哲學係教授張世英被采訪【1】，簡單談到了他的研究和興趣，對人生的態度。“張世英，1921年生，武漢市人。1946年畢業於西南聯合大學哲學係。1946-1952年在南開大學、武漢大學任教。1952年至今，曆任北京大學哲學係、外國哲學研究所講師、副教授、教授、所學術委員會主任、校學術委員會委員。現任北京大學哲學係教授、博士生導師、北京大學美學與美育研究中心學術委員會主任”，已經百歲了，剛剛去世【2】，這篇采訪了就張教授的研究，從西方哲學到中國思想到兩者的對比、結合，說到了的一個西方的，中國沒有的概念，主體性（subjectivity），有些小編覺得很關鍵，把采訪標題改成了“中國人幾千年來為什麽缺少自我？”按張教授的介紹，西方“主客二分”是其核心概念之一，二分就暗示了主體獨立於客體，“主體要認識客體、改造客體，強調人的主體性”，後來他發現（上世紀80年代以後）國內搞馬列主義、辯證唯物論的人在批判主體性就是個人主觀獨斷，覺得不對勁，可一看發現現代西方哲學也在批判主體性，於是他開始強調把中國的天人合一和西方的主客二分融合在一起研究。
 
中華傳統文化缺乏獨立自我觀念，把每個個人在社會群體中的地位看得很重。僅以中國舊社會中代替“我”字的稱謂為例，就足以說明這一點。平民百姓在官員麵前隻能自稱民女或小民、賤民，下官對上官隻能自稱卑職、下臣、小人、奴才、奴婢，晚輩對長輩隻能自稱不肖、不材。總之，在等級森嚴的社會裏，尊卑上下，各有所屬，人人按身份自稱，在下者不敢言我，在上者不屑言我。
 
“由此我得出結論，原始的天人合一，既缺乏民主，又缺乏科學。中國幾千年民主不發達，科學不發達，從哲學思想根源、文化形態根源來講，是因為天人合一”
 
【】關於我和自我個性的哲學看法
中國人沒有“我”，無我是一種境界，是一種美德，基督教的原罪，主客二分是啟蒙時代的產物（笛卡爾）
自覺性、自決性
 
（美國哲學家）佘爾（Searle）所代表西方哲學對自我的看法，西方人的自我觀是一個“獨立型的自我”，強調自我的獨立性和創造性；張世英代表中國哲學對自我的看法，一種“互倚型的自我”，強調自我與他人、與社會的相互依賴，“中國人更依賴於別人的觀點，英美人依賴自己的觀點”。
 
 
 
我相信張世英說的，心理學家、北京大學原心理學係係主任朱瀅教授引用的西方“自我”的觀念，是一個現代觀念，不是古希臘柏拉圖亞裏士多德開始發展起來的觀念。現代西方的自我，在宗教改革之前隻能是個不完善的觀念，啟蒙以後才逐漸明確
 
 
希臘羅馬
 
中學為爭第一打架
 
 
 
 
【】劉忠魏：時間、行動與他性
西方哲學5:鄧曉芒| 西方哲學的文化背景 - 知乎（鄧曉芒能說出這般腦殘的話）
 
中西方文化傳統的差異、根源及其影響（北京師範大學 教授 李守福）
 
 
共青團中央
【#當代年輕人從未選擇躺平#】疫情爆發，年輕的白衣戰士，逆行出征；邊境邊關，年輕的人民子弟兵以少敵多，用生命捍衛祖國領土；航天中心，平均年齡隻有31歲的科研人員，已經是中堅力量……在大風大浪中，青年一代不負使命，不負家國。他們有信念、有夢想、有奮鬥、有奉獻，他們從未選擇“躺平”！ ?
 
 
 
 
【飯圈】
“聖母”、“公知”、“理中客”、“跪族”這些曾經用來批評“恨國黨”的話像雨點一樣打到任意身上
 
 
 
政府說教
這都是盲目跟風的現象！我還是側重家庭教育方麵做如下解釋:
家長要教育孩子做好自己，不攀不比，靠努力學習改變命運！由於種種原因，家長沒有讓孩子過上富裕的生活，但是孩子不該因此自卑、自己瞧不起自己！人常說:兒不嫌母醜，狗不嫌家貧嘛！告訴孩子:不比父母比明天！
 
 
 
 課外補習班迎來“寒冬”，家長們卻憂心忡忡：
內卷最突出的代表
至於孩子補習的花費更是讓許多父母“心肺停止”，課外英語一對三補習，小課100，大課200，每月補習費支出上萬，每年光是教育花費就有十幾萬，辛辛苦苦賺的錢最後全送給了各種五花八門的培訓機構
 
 
 
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-05-04/surprising-strength-chinese-japanese-ties
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-04-20/how-not-win-allies-and-influence-geopolitics
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n11/adam-shatz/ghosts-in-the-land
http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-09/01/c_1126437982.htm
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=%E4%B8%AD%E5%A4%AE+%E5%90%91%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9+%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E8%BD%AC%E7%A7%BB+2.8%E4%B8%87%E4%BA%BF
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2021_04_15_587666.shtml
 
 
 
 
【“這個時候中國製造業增加值超過美國已經八年了”，“2018年的中國也已經是世界第一貨物貿易大國了”】
【，建國初期的美國總統小亞當斯（約翰·昆西·亞當斯）有句名言，我們美國不會跑到國外去抓怪物，但隨著美國的強大，抓怪物已經】
【美國的自信，也從他們對自己的】2007-2008世界經濟大危機是美國自己的帶來的災難，讓中國首次對美國質疑，對美國製度、美國所代表的方向質疑
【奧巴馬早期就開始派軍艦到南海巡航，不允許國際貨幣基金組織改革，狙擊中國的亞投行，建立公開以圍堵中國為目標的泛亞協定
川普上台更讓中國見到美國的真正嘴臉，不是
但受中國向國家管製方麵發展影響最大的，是美國，因為美國對“理想國家”有個認識，離開了那個理想，就是反動，與曆史潮流相違背，胡溫政府期間中國是有過一段較為思想開放的時期，可那時腐敗成風，而且美國已經打入到中國政府高層（中國如何摧毀中情局在中國的網絡），美國卻並不覺得有什麽異常，反而當習近平登基後幾年中國政府有了一種鐵腕強勢把中國帶回更加專製，但也更加穩定的政局之後，美國覺得不對勁了】
中國和平發展的指導思想是在經濟上發展，不與美國在軍事上衝突，咋看來中國在軍事上沒什麽機會，經濟上也不應當有勝算，可正是一帶一路、亞投行、金磚銀行之類的讓美國覺得中國的威脅，攻擊中國侵犯了“建立在規則上的夥計體製”，這是一種美國不同意就犯規的規則
冠疫以來，中國開始不停地給美國挖短
 
中國政府很多時候確實為了與美國對著幹，總是為一些流氓國家辯護，
 have run headlong into China’s paramount priority of defending its authoritarian system from foreign interference.
好像不加上“authoritarian”一字中國就無條件接受了似的
 
It has launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development Bank (along with Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa), and, most notably, the Belt and Road Initiative, Xi’s grandiose vision for building land and maritime routes to connect China to much of the world. These institutions and programs have given China agenda-setting and convening power of its own, while often departing from the standards and values upheld by existing international institutions.
 
he had no direct communications links with his Chinese counterpart. Somewhat reassuringly, China and the U.S. have some agreed-on protocols for unplanned encounters at sea and in the air.
China has also developed gray zone tactics in the South China Sea -- blurring civilian and military capabilities -- with a mandate to use force if necessary to support China's territorial claims.
隻是強調兩國關係惡化，沒有接觸，沒有有效的
 
“Xi Jinping was chosen to deal with the centripetal forces of Hu Jintao’s decade: indecision, stalled reforms, ministers ignoring the prime minister, local governments ignoring the center, the private economy overrunning the state economy, civil society threatening the role of the Party, and military leaders focused on real estate deals.”
Indeed, it says more about us than about them, and, sadly, what it says is how much our self-confidence has taken a beating.
Now, every Chinese militarized rock in the South China Sea is a strategic defeat, and every Chinese bad loan to Africa is a debt trap
 
中國的戰略部署基本上是美軍的概念，
 
當然也有不信這所謂“反介入和區域拒止”的，覺得是胡謅，
 
 
雖然這些人肯定不完全代表美國政府內部對中國的認識和看法，但他們卻反映了美國廣泛的反華鷹派的一個側麵，那就是這些人對中國基本沒有任何認識，對中國的判斷，對
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