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默克爾這賣國賊

(2021-01-05 18:49:15) 下一個
這是默克爾為什麽寧願對中國綏靖 ？一文後見到時事中的反應所作的後記。
 
上文引用的主要線索來自紐約榮鼎資訊公司（Rhodium Group）歐洲分部的高管，他再次撰文表達自己的不滿：
 
默克爾真給中國“送上大禮”，中國國際關係上重大勝利，別的不說，“你這不是讓中國一眼看穿美歐之間的巨大隔閡”？【The EU’s strategy of calling China a partner, competitor, and systemic rival (all at once)】所以歐洲的“獨立” （ strategic autonomy）是喪失原則。自由派和美國覺得歐洲不能記仇，淳樸（美國總統Donald Trump，人稱特朗普或川普）的仇，難點。
The CAI does not change that, as numerous EU officials have emphasized in their briefings over the past weeks. Nor is “equidistance” between the United States and China the EU’s end game：這還不夠嗎？
 
這是一個更極端的觀點，以往不論美國（淳樸當局）多麽混蛋，給中國帶來多少戰略優勢，今天西方再也不能為小便宜而丟失了大局，歐盟說美國在第一階段談判得到了那麽多好處，歐盟隻不過是從中國那兒拿到同樣的條件，有什麽大不了的？他說不行不行，美國是小節，你這是大節。
這些“大節”也不是不無道理，主要是香港，新疆，戰狼外交和貿易恐嚇手段。歸根結底是價值問題，也是反的一方盡管意識到美國，尤其是當今美國政府很混蛋，但其他人不能因為美國混蛋自己也混蛋。
 
在這種觀點裏，中國問題就簡單成了黑白，敵我問題，歐盟不僅不能給自己做主，也沒做主的能力。
 
 
 
一個值得回顧的細節是中歐全麵投資協定主要是中國讓步，而且在12月中歐盟的態度是中國的方案沒什麽有價值的，希望不大，然而隨後幾天中方做出來出乎所有人預料的讓步，歐盟意識到自己想要的中國基本都給了，實乃千載難逢，才決定拍板，黃平說“對於歐洲近年來麵臨的經濟困境與挑戰，中歐合作對於歐洲無疑是雪中送炭”。年底的期限是歐盟自己設的，如果歐盟不接受，中國會無止境等下去嗎？
 
“有些人擔心中國是不是讓步太多了，我不這麽認為。中歐投資協定談判使得中國整個經濟發展與外部世界融合度更高，更開放的同時也更規範，同時也有助於我們的高質量發展、提升我們的競爭力，使我們更具有活力。外部世界越不確定、競爭越激烈，我們恰恰應該要更加開放，而不是用封閉對待競爭。”
 
大家對默克爾意見大了：
Once again I would like to ask Americans to have some understanding for the European perspective on the Comprehensive Agrement on Investment (CAI) with China. I do so in stark language because a correction is in order to prevent worse. 
 
I myself find the political and moral arguments against it convincing, but that is no excuse to ignore European politics. Opinion pieces in the Anglophone press aren't comprehensive. The UK is no longer in the EU and those who work for US think-tanks and write in English are more likely to be Atlanticists than stem from the also influential Europeanist stream. Much of the pushback and moral outrage against this agreement coming from the US is counterproductive, because it does not engage with the European arguments for CAI. In his commentary, Dutch academic and former EU speech writer Luuk van Middelaar remarked about Jake Sullivan's intervention by tweet that "the new White House, too, sends marching orders via Twitter." 
 
There is the crux: Biden is bringing back many old hands who seem to act as if the US is already back at the head of a loyal Western alliance. That is not coming back. Europe does not want to be told to fall in line again as if the past four years did not occur. The past four years saw Trump lead a government containing several officials who prefer to see the European Union broken up, the very existential threat our leaders have been battling for more than a decade. The American ambassadors in The Hague, Berlin, and Brussels schemed with far-right fringe figures who condemn our governments. 
 
The US has made several deals with China and Europe feels pressured to catch up. But now it is told that deals with Beijing are actually useless, immoral and geopolitically a bad idea. Demands for loyalty to the US by Biden nominees who have not even had their confirmation hearing yet, let alone been sworn in, are extremely grating after four years of European leaders being treated like dirt by the White House. 
 
If the new US administration wants to restore the alliance, it needs to start with humility. The argument that things have changed since the start of the Sino-US trade war is fair. Merkel's focus on German economic interests ignore genocide in Xinjiang, oppression in Hong Kong, threats against Taiwan, increasingly clear contours of the entitled nationalist power China and the dangers of economic entanglement. But we are not there yet. The CAI has not even been signed yet. The chance that the European Parliament will vote against ratification is real. 
 
But to understand why we got here in the first place one first needs to make an attempt to understand Europe's reasons for pursuing CAI, rather than once again stereotype it as a continent of unprincipled sell-outs. Did the US selflessly consider Europe's interests with its Phase 1 deal as it was led by a president praising Xi Jinping's concentration camps? This whole campaign that EU should say no because of American upset is doomed to fail. The EU exists to defend its own interests, not those of the US. Besides reasons of triggered European chauvinism, Brussels cannot give the impression that DC can veto its foreign agreements. Moreover, the push for strategic autonomy will only seem more logical after the Capitol storming. 
 
Substantive arguments will work better for those seeking to derail it. Focus on 
unreliability of Chinese promises, the bad politics of the deal, German dominance, and so on. Do not think insulting Europeans as disloyal naifs will work. 
 
默克爾和馬克隆出席了儀式，法國明年出任歐盟主席，習近平指望馬克隆頂過去
 
美國對歐洲一巴掌過去，歐洲就會捂著臉，哭哭啼啼認錯嗎？人權原來並不是中歐全麵投資協定的內容，現在以此為標準來做選取的準則，理智嗎？
印度首先不服
中國信得過嗎？
 
美國的對華政策也很難，主要是既不能完全孤立中國，也不可以完全孤立中國，還得要合作，怎麽辦呢？
 
今天中國大肆逮捕香港“民運”，會不會導致中歐翻船？
 
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評論
nikecap53 2021-01-07 09:00:12 回複 悄悄話 歐盟遲早會發現中國在胡弄他們。
兵團農工 2021-01-06 16:54:05 回複 悄悄話 讚評論！
北美_原鄉人 2021-01-06 08:05:54 回複 悄悄話 歐洲一直就人權這個問題在談判中故意惡心中國，畫風一般是這樣的：
歐洲：你們那個香港問題，很不人權嘛......
中國：我們決定全麵開放汽車製造業，以後你們可以百分百持股。
歐洲：行！那你們那個新疆問題，我們還要派人調查觀察一下.......
中國：醫療服務業也可以開放，你們可以到中國辦私人醫院。
歐洲：成交！不過西藏那邊宗教問題......
中國：金融業也全麵開放，你們的銀行和保險公司可以進來了。
歐洲：其實我們仔細分析過了，你們人權狀況一直挺不錯，至少比沙特要好，先做生意吧，這些事後麵再說。
嗯，都是生意，不寒磣。
為了人權！為了自由！幹他娘的！
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