笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
正文
首先發生的是突然而來的升級，淳樸（美國總統DonaldTrump，人稱特朗普或川普）一推，舉世顫抖。從隨後媒體的報道來看，墨西哥是處處想方設法滿足美方的要求，我在從印太戰略到關稅大棒裏說墨西哥是逆來順受，沒想到墨西哥真的隻有息事寧人的意願。到了最後美方接受墨西哥的讓步妥協，雖然墨西哥處於被動局麵，我還暗暗為淳樸喝彩，雖然無賴，但對手不得不投降，是本事。
後來媒體開始爆出詳情，算是有些頭緒。
首先，《紐時》說所謂在處置難民的讓步，其實是墨西哥早就應允的，與這次淳樸發旋無關（Mexico Agreed to Take Border Actions Months Before Trump Announced Tariff Deal）。其次，《彭博》說墨西哥壓根兒沒答應增加農作物采購（Mexico Doesn't Back Up Trump's Twitter Claims of Big Farm Deal）
連不那麽尖刻的《合眾社》也隻是說墨西哥許諾的微不足道，隻夠滿足淳樸競選的虛榮心（US-Mexico deal offers few new solutions, political victory）。如果有什麽是常見的伎倆，就是誰都不知道他想的是什麽，接受還是不接受，他自己的班子不知道，外人是根本不能知道。
另一個情形，就是淳樸自己想要什麽，他自己也不知道，大家千方百計猜，屬於徒勞。他本人絕對沒能力，也不在乎，對方的讓步是實質性的，還是形式的，無關緊要，《紐時》政壇記者Peter Baker總結如下（A Drama of Trump’s Own Making Ends With a Familiar Hero）：
Nine days in spring offered a case study in Mr. Trump’s approach to some of the most daunting issues confronting him and the nation: When the goal seems frustratingly out of reach through traditional means, threaten drastic action, set a deadline, demand concessions, cut a deal — real or imagined — avert the dire outcome and declare victory.
If nothing else, he forces attention on the issue at hand. Whether the approach yields sustainable results seem less certain. These are often dramas of his own making, with him naturally the hero. He stakes out maximalist positions and issues brutal ultimatums to compel action, arguing that extreme problems demand extreme tactics. At times, though, it can seem like little more than smoke and mirrors substituting for serious policymaking, a way of pretending to make progress without actually solving the underlying problem.
這跟我昨天引用外交老手哈斯（Richard Haass）的說法一模一樣：
There is a pattern to the foreign policy of @realDonaldTrump. We have seen it w N Korea, NAFTA, and now China. He creates a sense of crisis, compromises, and both claims he accomplished more than he did and deserves credit for having defused the crisis that he largely created.
— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) December 3, 2018
這是《華爾街日報》的說法（For Trump, Threats Become Part of Diplomatic Playbook）：
Critics see it another way: as unbecoming of a superpower and ultimately undermining America's standing if it is perceived as too quick to make threats, which then appear empty if they aren't followed through. Mr. Trump several times, for instance, has threatened to close the southern U.S. border to stem the flow of illegal migrants -- at one point saying, "I'm not playing games" -- but so far hasn't done so
這些都是活生生的例子，太好對付了：不搭理，挺住，不變應萬變，讓步沒用，讓一步對方進一步，就看誰能熬到底。對西方民主國家難點，中國就容易多了，而且中國普通百姓也夠有氣的，企業界難受點，但也會咬咬牙站隊。
美墨關稅談判給中國的教訓，就是中國目前的應對正確，沒有更好的老師了。
中國的鴿派會說美國贏了，應該和美國妥協
中國的鷹派會說墨國贏了，新協議隻不過是文字措辭修飾了一下舊文而已，中國再堅持下去必勝。
莫莫現在做了，左臂們為啥哭天搶地的，像死了誰一樣。難道做了不是對美國好？哦，對了，還真是，死了以後選票的來源。