嗬，這貿易戰大家打得那個歡

前幾天剛說“20強年會一個月後會在日本召開，我感覺是（習川）兩人能握握手就是件了不起的事“，今天傳出中方“麵會時機不成熟”的信號。中美貿易戰，自然已經不是單純的順差的問題，而是產業鏈的控製，雙方所受的影響是不對等，前幾天說“也許中國死一千，美國傷八百”，中國受損大於美國，不過除了總統覺得“咱賺大了”之外，美國人覺得不受影響的人難見，大家也隻有愛國一把，比不上中國，但也沒啥法子。

 

我總提到的一個主題是，不論中國還美國，政府的所有政策都是國內財富的重新分配，有人高興有人愁。這幾天淳樸（美國總統DonaldTrump，人稱特朗普或川普）又說調用150億美元救濟農民，就是把財富從一般老百姓手裏挪到農民哪兒，為的是收買農民（選票）。中國新的給半導體行業減稅的政策，也是從其他行業和老百姓手裏轉過來的，也沒什麽好的辦法，隻能增加愛國教育（就是大部分人勒緊褲帶）。

 

中國國內目前因華為事件對外企公開敵視，甚至抵製衝擊、，是最無能的表現，跟義和團心態有一比，政府縱容，腦殘。

 

不久前我說起文學城惹上了美國智庫，美國精英覺得文學城是被中國操縱，文學城老總親自跑到斯坦福抗議。今天據說本站老受五毛黑客騷擾，以致我在（上了首頁）博文改個錯字的能力也成了犧牲品。可惡，都可惡。

 

貿易戰對美國的影響，不久前Oxford Analytics估計美國老百姓每年負擔大約是1000億美元（CNBC），這幾天（美國）紐約聯儲發了個自己的研究，也說是1000億美元（見下，《金融時報》報道）。過過目，這個數字大概就是關稅，當然這些錢從老百姓手裏到了政府手裏，正好給淳樸打藍挺紅，收買自己的兵馬。

 

 

這仗打得是慘，還是歡？都行。

 

政策都是國內財富的重新分配，貿易戰就成了國內政治。

 

 

【附錄】

《金融時報》Latest China tariffs to cost US households $100bn annually — NY Fed

The report led by Mary Amiti, assistant vice-president at the New York Fed, estimates that the Trump administration’s increase in tariffs on $200bn in Chinese goods will cost the typical household more than $800 annually.

 

“These higher tariffs are likely to create large economic distortions and reduce US tariff revenues,” the report, which was co-authored by Princeton’s Stephen Redding and Columbia University’s David Weinstein, warned.

 

The researchers came to the estimate by projecting the amount of additional tax created by the tariffs as well as so-called deadweight losses. Deadweight losses come as a result of companies, when faced with higher costs to import goods from a particular country, shift to another producer that is less efficient (for example, moving from China to Vietnam).

 

Such “losses tend to rise more than proportionally as tariffs rise because importers are induced to shift to ever more expensive sources of supply as the tariffs rise”, the report said.

 

Overall, tax payments from the new round of tariffs are estimated at $26.9bn per year, or $211 per household. Deadweight losses equate to $79.1bn, or $620 per household, the report says.

 

The New York Fed’s report highlights the potential economic consequences of the deepening stand-off between the US and China. Asset markets have responded negatively, with American and Chinese bourses both under pressure in recent days.

[東山風景]

貿易戰

[山鄉不仕]

國際政治從來隻是國內政治需要的延伸。

[笨狼]

回複 'fonsony' 的評論 :

川總在2016競選時就告知全球他有無可比擬的大手，打遍天下無敵手。習近平咋練，在川總麵前隻能叫幹爸爹。

你可以回去報功了。

[fonsony]

習近平需要多練手力與川總握手時比拚，不要被川總握到臉黑，幹爸爹，