笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
正文
中國曆來講究“穩定”“和諧”，不僅僅胡錦濤習近平（習極端了），已經幾千年了，“指導思想”以前是儒家，現在是“山寨馬列主義”（中國特色的社會主義？誰也不知道是什麽）。強調“國家民族利益”高於個人利益，強調犧牲個人的利益來換取國家的安全、穩定，對個人來說，“自由”是稀有的，得到的回報是安全、繁榮、生活水平的提高，日子不中斷。不過這個過程既緩慢也不均勻，多數人得益，少數人得大益，一部分人被遺留在後，結果是大家都有意見，都抱怨。
不過中國算是活過來了，幾千年，數次外族入侵，還統治幾百年，融合的也不少（其實這是極其正常的事，叫曆史），但中華文化本身一直得以延續。中國的製度有多大優越性，也不是這兒要說的，我甚至會說其缺陷其實一般大，還是必須接納眾多的西方思想，否則路越走越窄。
英國是現代西方自由資本主義的鼻祖，除了工業革命，就靠這兒發家，英國有一些基本治國資本主義國策，諸如自由創業、多勞（包括腦力）多得，財產權，法律法製，但還有一個關鍵，叫體製（institutions），一個穩定、健全、依法守法的體製，因此，英國精英對中國過去一千年的官僚體製，擇優錄取（而並非家族遺傳）的文官製度充滿敬佩，很服，至今依舊是個研究課題。你說隻是為皇權賣命也行，充滿腐敗也行，但社會是運作了，中國在衰退前一直是世界經濟大體，總體國力很強。
這一點，在Daron Acemoglu 和James Robinson兩人的長作《國家衰落之根源（Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty）》是個討論的主線（當然兩人還強調“好的”“壞的”體製，如中國的極權，限製個人自由就是個“壞”體製，“遲早”遭殃）。
現在西方經濟社會學對非洲落後研究的一個看法是，非洲缺乏這種社會體製、框架，現有的一個極其不健全的體製是西方殖民主義者遺留下來的專門用於統治掠奪非洲的最腐敗的一套（不是我說的，Acemoglu 和Robinson兩人之言）。
一個健全的體製，一個不健全的體製，毫無體製，還有一個動蕩的體製。這最後一個情形就是美國今天麵臨的。
動蕩，是國內的分裂，對立。美國左右，“進步”“保守”兩派的對立，幾十年了，裏根年代的妥協早就無影無蹤了，現在的對立還極端，到了你死我活的地步，而今在淳樸（Donald Trump）的煽動下似乎要把全國引入內戰。
淳樸說現在的“政府是腐敗的”，“媒體是腐敗的”，“金融銀行界是腐敗的”，“克林頓（Hillary Clinton）是腐敗的”(比爾·克林頓更是王八蛋，是當今婦女受愛的罪魁禍首，我也是克林頓的受害者），就是說“凡是對我有意見的都是腐敗的，都黑”，“現在是曆史上最黑暗的時刻”。
響應淳樸召喚暴動，蠢蠢欲動的淳粉。《波斯頓環球報》周末這篇報道在全國引起震蕩。
《皮尤》【3】：黨派間的怨憤
《皮尤》【3】：對他方的反感
《皮尤》【3】：對他方的態度
我在剖析淳陣民眾心態：大家圖啥？一文裏詳細解釋了淳陣的很多鐵杆其實並不窮，收入大大高於全國中值，沒受自貿的打擊，然而這並不妨礙他們的極端態度。
換句話說，白人是真的覺得社會不公平，自己的機會都給他人奪去了，奧巴馬大大咧咧的還給他們撐腰，就是要把我們的一切都奪走啊。真是對淳陣民主心態最貼切的描述，是他們死心塌地支持淳樸的原因，這一點，把不同經濟層次的淳陣民眾團結在一起。
這一點，卡利亞【1】就密歇根大學的Inglehart和哈佛大學的Norris的新著：《Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash》再次重述：
大家的怨恨已經超越簡單的經濟因素，到了文化的程度，文化，就是我的世界觀，生活觀念，生活方式以及人生安全和過好日子的機會。現在都遭受威脅，有的已經被奪走了。
2015年，民主黨眾議院老大佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）為了“維護眾議院的尊嚴”，打算跨黨支持共和黨老大博納（John Boehner），但因博納自選退休而作罷。「老太太今年75歲，腦子還很快，佩服。共和黨、右派、保守派都恨她，認為她是激進的代表，極左。」
這是個很關鍵的概念，不是機會越來越少了，而是被奪走了。被奪走，就是敵對，就是勢不兩立，以致到了你死我活的不可調和的程度，隨之而來的種族歧視、宗教歧視、性別歧視都是自然而然的結果。
【2】：
華裔有“滾回中國”的風波。
與以往大選不同的是，這次大選淳樸的競選發言如果沒有大半也有一半是基於極其荒謬的謊言之上，有些謊言太可笑了，中學水平的人都一眼看穿，可是淳樸本人連這的能力都沒有，但令人震驚的是淳粉也不在乎，越荒謬，月極端，大家月激昂，鬥誌越堅強。把自己的信念建立在謊言上，咋看起來不僅僅非理性，實乃不可思議。然而【4】介紹了另一項更新的研究，闡析這種心態。
Christopher H. Achen & Larry M. Bartels: Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government (Princeton Studies in Political Behavior)
美國選民看淡事實來做決定已經有一段曆史了，即使候選人改變現有的經濟政策，與自己原來的期望不一致，甚至有傷害自己利益的嫌疑，大家還是寧願接受支持本黨的候選人。這個解釋是大家有個更加根深蒂固的觀念，就是黨一定代表自己的利益，所以最終選擇本黨的代表。
我對此的看法是從這種傾向的反麵來看，那就是人最終關心的隻是自己的生活方式和生活環境，對方總是在想方設法侵犯我的利益，隻有我們同黨們抱成一團才能擋住“對方”的攻擊，所以具體政策有關係，但不是決定性的，我肯定會投本黨一票。就目前的環境，這一利害關係就是大法官，那是影響到子子孫孫的生活方式的大事。
這個看法，跟幾年前Jonathan Haidt的看法極其相仿。
Jonathan Haidt: The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
這種傾向叫“部落親情”（tribal affinity），就是說同一個村的，大家去要飯，你覺得也得跟著去；去打劫、搶銀行，你也不好推；要造反，嗬嗬，有滅九族的風險，但不去不行啊，大家都盯著你。
說俗了就是，你我相互瞅一眼，大家心照不宣，好歹是一幫的，咱彼此間的高尚品德還是卑鄙行徑就放下不說了，現在外麵都是豺狼，險，先聯手再說，不是要擊退它們，而是得把它們宰了。
既然如此，淳樸是否撒謊，是否具備基本人格，無關緊要。
有人把這叫犧牲小節為大義，我說這叫“什麽奸”。
也就是你不在乎出賣自己的人格。
這就是共和黨此刻心理的描述。淳樸都不是貨真價實的共和黨（參見，譬如：狗屁不通的淳樸經濟政策），嗬嗬。
深深描繪當前的背景、心態的莫過於電影《拳幫》。你要是沒看過，一定要看看。
諾頓（Edward Norton）和皮特（Brad Pitt）領銜主演
![Fight Club (10th Anniversary Edition) [Blu-ray]](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/91-8aMymQWL._SX342_.jpg)
《拳幫》
電影上演時並不非常賣座，但隨著時間越來越成為地下暗流信奉的偶像，反映的心態、信念和追隨的潮流，主角Tyler Durden也是反潮流網站“零對衝”（Zero Hedge）的別名。
主角因為處處受人歧視壓製，無法承受，開了個拳擊班，幫規嚴厲，此後越來越大，到了無處不在的程度，拳幫最後策反，在全世界暴動，將金融中心一一炸毀，而主角Tyler Durden的雙重人性（諾頓和皮特分別表演）最後也變成瘋魔，把自己完全控製，他隻有在自己殺了自己一條命後才恢複到人的原性。
難道淳樸是個雙重人性？
大家衝動，不希望用腦子，明白，理解（Achen & Bartels，Haidt），同情。淳樸進來對整個體製的攻擊，他自己不懂，不能在乎，意料之中。但我忍不住，問問大家，問問死心塌地的淳粉。你的房子是假的（房契被刪改了），銀行的賬號是假的（被改了），股票行賬號是假的，病了看病醫生隨時向陷害你，你的蘋果手機、古狗搜索結果，臉譜信息，都是摻了假的，因為那是精英大學洗過腦的矽穀精英造的，難說不是為了控製全國。淳樸的言論就是徹底否認美國的民主機製，也就大家依據生活的基礎，從而也否定西方價值的基礎。
上周我已經斷言淳樸敗選成定局（參見：淳樸終於玩完了，克林頓依然勝券在握），淳樸的對策是將全國帶入烏黑的年代，可惜淳樸腦子已經衰退了，說不定老年癡呆症，他自己壓根兒就不知道除了自己一生積累的經驗，還能有其他任何途徑，任何天地，這是他唯一能說的是整個體製都已腐敗的原因。
淳陣不計較他那黑暗的人生觀，隻是他的他的天地隻是一部分而已，其他人很清楚淳樸本人就是現有體製的代表，是既得利益者，如果克林頓腐敗，他每樣都有過之無不及：
"If you look at the case we wanted to prosecute, for a lack of a better term, Hillary Clinton for — if you want to talk about the Clinton sex scandals, well, it turns out Donald Trump has his as well. And if you want to focus on the Clintons having a shady charity, well, Donald Trump has his own shady charity."At every turn, all the things you want to use against Hillary Clinton, Trump has all the same problems," he said.《商業內幕（Business Insider）》
正如我在恨現有體製腐敗？先把聯儲給我砸了，再說別的裏說的：
大部分人（有錢人）背景跟淳樸很相似，“闖”“創”出來的。不過這些人裏不使些陰招，將各種關係門路用盡，到不了今天的地步。按此說法，他們才是“體製內的人”，是最大的受益者和利益集團。淳樸也是“體製內的人”，也是最大的受益者，是利益集團的一員。
淳樸的“三光政策”（“三光政策”參見：“華裔多數支持淳樸”這傳說是哪來的？）
‘We’re bringing out tactical nukes now, with thermo nukes later.’ The attacks on the Clintons are also aimed at the ‘suppression of votes’ from millennial women, African-Americans and the ‘idealistic Bernie Sanders supporter,’
這思潮倒退到什麽年代了？
麵對美國陷入的癱瘓，中國冷眼在旁觀看。淳陣完全否認精英的一切，克陣不完全否認精英，但也極端懷疑，西方精英們建造的這體製，讓資本主義壯大繁華了幾百年，現在美國歐洲麵臨的局勢大有將整個體製引致癱瘓的地步，也許大家對中國的體製還是不屑，但未必能再顯得高高在上了。
淳樸和淳粉聲言的“係統腐敗、被操縱”，“大選被盜竊”（polls rigged, media and system corrupt, debate moderators biased and election to be stolen）徹底否定了美國在全球領袖的地位
《金融時報》【5】The Chinese challenge to America’s democratic ideology is more subtle and perhaps more dangerous because China can make a good claim to be a well-governed country.The Chinese argue that their system selects leaders on merit, after decades of rigorous assessment. President Xi only made it to the pinnacle of state power after many years of work in the provinces and in different government jobs. He has been judged by his peers, not the voters, to be qualified to run the country.In Beijing recently, I was told that many Chinese officials quite like the idea of Mr Trump as US president “because he makes America look so bad”. By contrast, US allies around the world would be dismayed to see the Oval Office occupied by an erratic “America First” narcissist like Mr Trump.
中國想不自滿一把拽不行了。想想啥孔子學院啊，虧大錢，還被人笑遭人罵，美國自己就把中國推到了前言，給“中國模式”找到了依據，中國剩下的就是琢磨如何推卻（還不具備這實力）。
以前西方嘲笑中國金融落後，美國的金融大危機，大家不笑了。西方依舊嘲笑中國的體製，目前到底是誰笑誰呢？
【注】
淳樸如果當選，世界必定陷入經濟危機。他的經濟政策基本建立在無知上，尤其是貿易政策，世界貿易如果進入貿易戰，中國一定陷入困境，但是中國不會是唯一，德國日本韓國的出口大國一同遭殃，所有靠原材料的國家也遭殃。如果誰以為這讓美國立於不敗之地，那是無知。美國經濟沒法脫離世界經濟，這種所謂“籌碼”般的政策不是玩笑，而是個（經濟）原子彈，一投，大家一塊死。
任何僥幸心態完全是無知。
【資料】
【1】《華盛頓郵報》法裏德·紮卡利亞（Fareed Zakaria，美國新聞電視站CNN每周一次的“全球大眾論壇”（GPS-Global Public Square）主持人）It’s no longer the economy, stupid: Our identity politics are polarizing us
【5】《金融時報》Donald Trump and the declining prestige of US democracy（附錄在下）
And he is proclaiming conspiracies everywhere — in polls (rigged), in debate moderators (biased) and in the election itself (soon to be stolen)
This is a campaign right out of Breitbart-邁入妄想症時刻
How did it come to this? The presidential election debates should represent US democracy at its finest. Instead, the second Clinton-Trump debate centred around sordid allegations of sexual assault, threats, lies and mutual contempt.
At one stage, Mr Trump boasted that Mrs Clinton would “be in jail” if he were in charge of the legal system. Political rivals to the president get imprisoned in Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe. America is meant to live by different standards.
Sunday night’s spectacle is not just embarrassing for the US. America is widely regarded as the “leader of the free world.” So the rise of Mr Trump threatens to damage the prestige of democracy everywhere.
The damage is not restricted to the world of ideas. Authoritarianism and anti-Americanism are on the march, led by increasingly confident governments in Beijing and Moscow. A strong and impressive US should be central to rallying the response of the world’s democracies. Instead, we had the depressing and degrading spectacle of the second Trump-Clinton debate.
Even in their current sorry state, the presidential debates have shown some of the drama and energy that distinguish US politics. Millions of people around the world watched and discussed the confrontation. The next session of China’s National People’s Congress will not attract a similar audience.
It is also true that neither Xi Jinping of China nor Vladimir Putin of Russia would ever be subjected to the kind of brutal interrogation to which American politicians are subjected on a routine basis. Instead, last week, the Russian Duma sent Mr Putin 450 roses to mark his birthday.
Yet, even so, the second presidential election debate was a desperately poor advertisement for US democracy. In some respects, Mr Trump has actually introduced some of the malign features of Russian and Chinese politics into the US. One of the strengths of the western democratic system is that a free press and open debate are meant to expose falsehoods. Yet Mr Trump sprays out lies like a skunk trying to repel its enemies. His method seems to be to create such confusion that the truth simply gets buried amid a mass of falsehoods. This is characteristic of the current Russian propaganda system described in an aptly titled book by Peter Pomerantsev: Nothing is True and Everything Is Possible.
The Chinese challenge to America’s democratic ideology is more subtle and perhaps more dangerous because China, unlike Russia, can make a good claim to be a well-governed country. China is the largest economy in the world measured by purchasing power parity. The Chinese argue that their system selects leaders on merit, after decades of rigorous assessment. President Xi only made it to the pinnacle of state power after many years of work in the provinces and in different government jobs. He has been judged by his peers, not the voters, to be qualified to run the country.
The Chinese do not yet argue that their system should be applied around the world. But they do increasingly condemn — as agents of America, seeking to “sow chaos” — those who make the case for a more liberal political system within the Sinic world, for example in Hong Kong or Taiwan. Beleaguered liberals in Russia or China need a well-functioning US democracy as a support and an inspiration. Instead, they see a system that produces Mr Trump, a man whose political style owes more to President Putin than to President Obama.
In Beijing recently, I was told that many Chinese officials quite like the idea of Mr Trump as US president “because he makes America look so bad”. By contrast, US allies around the world would be dismayed to see the Oval Office occupied by an erratic “America First” narcissist like Mr Trump.
Of course US politics has thrown up villains and melodrama before. The first great US political scandal that I followed as a child was Watergate — which also featured a “bad guy” making scandalous remarks on a secret recording. The Watergate tapes introduced the American public to the phrase “expletive deleted”. Many Americans were scandalised by the profanity and cynicism of Richard Nixon, their president. But the way that the US system — the courts, the press and the Congress working together — dealt with Nixon was ultimately very impressive. And for all his flaws, no one doubted that Nixon had the experience and the intelligence to be president.
By contrast, Mr Trump is manifestly unqualified and has thrown the US system into confusion, leaving the press and the Republican party floundering. The fact that more than 40 per cent of Americans, and a majority of whites, are probably going to vote for him suggests that the US is in deep trouble. We can, by now, all list the ingredients that have helped create this sickness — economic stagnation, inequality, illegal immigration, the rise of social media — but the outcome threatens the prestige of democracy worldwide.
If Mrs Clinton makes it to the White House there will be relief across the west and a certain disappointment in Moscow and, perhaps, Beijing. But it will be very hard to erase the memory of this campaign. It has presented an image of a troubled, divided and deluded US to the rest of the world. As a result, it has already dealt a serious blow to the prestige and power of the west.
真虧您來說，我費了半天廢話，不就是說這麽一回事？還不如您一句話。
頂一把。
大家需要一套新的邏輯來替代“舊的枷鎖”，叫做“另類現實”（alternate reality）。
哎呀可不是到處都是，不好轉過彎來，沒關係。
回複 '大號螞蟻' 的評論 :
不得了升級了，成了理論。受驚了。
回複 'workforwal' 的評論 :
有希望就好。
回複 'gagaga' 的評論 :
我真瘋你假瘋，我糊塗你清醒，不就正好讓您占據高點？就算是個逗您樂樂的胡言吧，讀讀也值了。
他是裝瘋，川粉是真瘋。川普的女婿已經在鋪後路了，他們本是體製的受益人，自然要接著受益，但川粉掀起的仇恨，要自己承受