美國今年食品價格一直下跌,不知道是經濟不景氣還是競爭過度激烈,居民挑剔多了是實話,但行家都說零售商超市定價“不合理”,為了搶奪顧客大家都做虧本生意,不知能維持多久。
問:我的經曆是食品價格大幅度上漲。 不知哪個地方是價格下降。
答:我所知道的數據以及見到的,主要大幅降價的是牛肉、雞蛋,牛奶和奶製品。今年是吃牛排的好時候。
玉米(期貨價格)
大豆(期貨價格)
玉米大豆價格大跌,對飼料和幾乎所有加工型的食品成本都大大減輕。
《零對衝》 列舉了幾個圖來反映食品貶值的嚴重程度:
水果
連下館子都好了
吃是便宜了,那總的消費水平,也就是生活花銷是多少呢?這個數據是財政部下的經濟數據局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的個人消費(PCE,Personal Consumption Expenditures)個人消費價格指數是衡量通貨膨脹的另一個指標(打打架常說的是物價指數,“消費者價格指數”CPI。物價指數往往是相對的,描述增長,也就是通脹貶值率,而個人消費包括絕對數字,參見藿香子:
(CPI&PCEPI)和美聯儲利率政策)。據經濟數據局的數據,今年二季(最新數據)人居個人消費是$35500,相比之下去年年底是$35100:
按美國平均家庭人口數目,今年二季每家消費$90500,去年年底是$89500。這是個平均值,不是中值(median)。聯儲三番分行有個
數據分析,但給的是還比率,不是絕對值,不太熟悉,也沒有花時間琢磨,感覺是中值也不低。
美國平均家庭今年二季消費$90500,去年年底是$89500
如果平均家庭每年得消費$90000,那可不是個小數字,我在
奧巴馬說百姓日子好了提到“家庭收入中值是$56500”,一比,日子沒發過。
所以對大多數人來說,還得盯著。
頭銜:
《華爾街日報》亮點:
- Each New Jersey resident on average spent twice as much on housing and utilities as did a West Virginian—$9,482 in the Garden State versus $4,573 in the Mountain State. D.C. had the highest per-person housing expenditures at $10,569.
- Health-care spending per person was twice as high in Alaska ($9,645) as it was in Utah ($4,796). Again, D.C. topped the list at per-capita health-care spending of $11,021.
- The nation’s highest grocery bills were in Vermont, where per-capita spending on food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption last year was $4,196. That was almost twice the level in Oklahoma, where per-capita grocery spending was $2,282.
- North Dakotans had the biggest energy bills, with per-capita spending on gasoline and other energy goods totaling $2,994 in 2015. That was nearly six times the per-capita energy spending of $509 in Hawaii.
我按照數據列了個表:
State |
人均 |
家庭 |
District of Columbia |
$55,078 |
$140,449 |
Massachusetts |
$49,717 |
$126,778 |
Alaska |
$48,666 |
$124,098 |
North Dakota |
$47,864 |
$122,053 |
New Hampshire |
$47,441 |
$120,975 |
New Jersey |
$47,256 |
$120,503 |
Connecticut |
$46,998 |
$119,845 |
Vermont |
$46,531 |
$118,654 |
New York |
$45,272 |
$115,444 |
Maryland |
$42,997 |
$109,642 |
Hawaii |
$42,778 |
$109,084 |
Delaware |
$42,088 |
$107,324 |
Minnesota |
$42,038 |
$107,197 |
Maine |
$41,525 |
$105,889 |
Washington |
$41,386 |
$105,534 |
Rhode Island |
$41,163 |
$104,966 |
Colorado |
$40,625 |
$103,594 |
Virginia |
$40,195 |
$102,497 |
Illinois |
$39,859 |
$101,640 |
Wyoming |
$39,825 |
$101,554 |
Montana |
$39,718 |
$101,281 |
California |
$39,715 |
$101,273 |
Pennsylvania |
$39,498 |
$100,720 |
U.S. (全國平均) |
$38,196 |
$97,400 |
Oregon |
$38,090 |
$97,130 |
South Dakota |
$38,085 |
$97,117 |
Michigan |
$37,775 |
$96,326 |
Nebraska |
$37,437 |
$95,464 |
Wisconsin |
$37,391 |
$95,347 |
Florida |
$37,020 |
$94,401 |
Ohio |
$36,460 |
$92,973 |
Missouri |
$36,184 |
$92,269 |
Iowa |
$35,621 |
$90,834 |
Texas |
$35,527 |
$90,594 |
Nevada |
$34,949 |
$89,120 |
Kansas |
$34,840 |
$88,842 |
New Mexico |
$34,535 |
$88,064 |
Indiana |
$34,098 |
$86,950 |
Arizona |
$34,061 |
$86,856 |
Louisiana |
$33,616 |
$85,721 |
Utah |
$33,389 |
$85,142 |
Georgia |
$33,353 |
$85,050 |
West Virginia |
$33,282 |
$84,869 |
Tennessee |
$33,062 |
$84,308 |
North Carolina |
$32,501 |
$82,878 |
Oklahoma |
$32,397 |
$82,612 |
Idaho |
$32,226 |
$82,176 |
South Carolina |
$32,033 |
$81,684 |
Kentucky |
$31,925 |
$81,409 |
Alabama |
$30,459 |
$77,670 |
Arkansas |
$29,791 |
$75,967 |
Mississippi |
$29,330 |
$74,792 |
各州差別很大,家庭消費從華府$140000(最高)到密西西比州$74800,巨大。自然你要是有錢有勢,華府是個吃喝玩樂的好地方,表演舞台也許差點,但飯管子盡管不是世界前幾名,夠你吃的。見的都是能人,估計你也是自我感覺良好。
不過《華爾街日報》也說單看數據,書生了,現實複雜的多。
房價比較
商務部(Department of Commerce)的數據則很不一樣:
而社區經濟研究學會(Council for Community and Economic Research )的基本生活費用(衣食住行)又是一說:
大家把錢多花在哪兒了?就看你是窮人還是富人了。俗話說衣食住行,這些基本上是老百姓最擔憂的了(美國也有專項,叫Household Expenditures on Basic Needs)。布魯金斯學會的哈密爾頓小組(Hamilton Project)做了個調查,窮人衣食住行幾乎是大家所有的花銷了:
如果你們一家超過82%的收入都用在衣食住行,娛樂就沒多少了,少了娛樂,生活就沒勁,毫無動力,覺得日子沒奔頭,子女教育都到爪哇國了。
我舉兩個成百姓負擔基本花費的例子。
一是醫保費用,大家熟知了。
一般通脹和醫保通脹的比較:
另一個是住房費用。對於大多數已經擁房的華裔,這個負擔不大,但那是美國下半層的人租房的比比皆是,房租是個大開銷。
這是我關注的一個經濟數據圖 (聯儲) :
租金占收入的成分是越來越大。
債務是不算在家庭消費之內的,也就是說額外的。今天聯儲公布的消費者債務報告(Consumer Credit)還是老生常談,信用卡越來越放心用了:
學生債高積如山:
對廣大老百姓來說,還得精打細算啊。
房租已經算在家庭消費之內了。
抱歉。謝謝,改了。
汽油近來是個小頭,影響甚微。但是我增加了消費者債務的圖。
想了想,列舉了一些數據,覺得文學城評論版麵無法表達,加在文章開頭(框框裏)。您參考參考。