脫歐隨想四：英國的籌碼

《英脫歐公投隨想之四》

 

相對經濟規模

《華爾街日報》Brexit Will Put the U.S. Back Atop the World GDP Rankings（標題不無幸災樂禍之意）

 

《英國衛報》

一大堆經濟學大腕，通天的觀點

The UK economy will perform better outside the EU

EU referendum: UK's top economic experts issue joint warning against Brexit

 

（維基）歐盟經濟和英國的相對成分

2015	總產值	人均總產值	比例
歐盟	14,625.40	28,700	100.0%
德國	3,025.90	37,100	20.7%
英國	2,568.90	39,500	17.6%
法國	2,183.60	32,800	14.9%
意大利	1,636.40	26,900	11.2%
西班牙	1,081.20	23,300	7.4%
荷蘭	678.6	41,000	4.6%
瑞典	444.2	45,300	3.0%
波蘭	427.7	11,100	2.9%
比利時	409.4	36,500	2.8%
奧地利	337.2	39,100	2.3%

單位：歐元

 

貿易

英國貿易（英國廣播公司）

Trade is important for Britain because about 28% of what we produce is sold abroad, exported

 

英國的主要貿易夥伴（德國之聲）

 

按產業：

 

按世界區域：

 

標普：

 

英國與歐盟間的貿易逆差，是英國的籌碼，與德國間的逆差尤其大，這是為何德國口氣最軟的原因。

 

這也解釋了為什麽公投後的第二天德國股市比英國股市跌的多多了。

 

德國貿易數據：

注：德國出口很強，盡管不是世界貿易量最大的國家的幾名，但總算差世界第一，比中國還高。

 

《經濟學人雜誌》是英國保守體製的捍衛人，英國和西方自由資本主義的倡導者，反對脫歐及其賣力。這是它旗下《商機智庫Business Intelligence》主任外特（Alex White）的警告：

1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained

2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy

3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017

4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24

5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises

6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018

7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)

8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats

9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead

10. The UK will likely invoke Art 50 before year end, implying that negotiations will conclude in late 2018

11. UK will agree an EEA minus deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration

12. Much of the financial services sector may be left in the cold

13. New PM will eat heroic quantities of humble pie to get the deal; UK will be permanently out of the room on big decisions

14: This new deal will be confirmed through either a second referendum or a general election at the end of the process

15. Leavers will tell voters they wont get what they want on migration. Will lead to major backlash = structural rise for radical right

16. This is a particular threat for Labour. We expect UKIP etc to mount a serious challenge in Labour heartlands (even with Corbyn gone)

17. UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity

18. Much of the UK's 'political stability premium' based on predictability / reliability etc could be lost for long time

19. As UK leaves, recovery will be underway but economy & politics will look structurally different

20. We are not predicting second Scot ref at this stage, but constitutional settlement needs to change (inc London / FPTP?)

21. Impacts across Europe will be substantial. We have taken 0.2% off growth and see larger political risks – particularly in Italy/France

22. The region is capable of managing Brexit, and other crises in isolation. It may not be capable of managing several crises at once

23. We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks – include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control

你說偏見、極端，也行。

 

讀讀我在此題的其他博文：

脫歐隨想一：美國政局

脫歐隨想二：英國政壇地震

脫歐隨想三：經濟衝擊

脫歐隨想五：克林頓的當頭一擊

脫歐隨想六：對中國的影響

脫歐隨想七：信念的破滅

脫歐隨想八：中文媒體的反應

脫歐隨想九：歐盟那團苦水

 

我不活，你也得死：脫歐的現實

 

 

《金融時報》After a resounding Brexit vote, Sunderland fears for Nissan plant

Carmaker stays silent over future of Britain’s largest car plant

 

The British car industry issued a clear warning: leaving the EU could put jobs at risk.

 

But just a few days later Sunderland, the home of Nissan, delivered its verdict: a resounding 61.3 per cent of people voted for Brexit regardless.

 

Nissan has declined to comment on what Brexit means for the plant, a £3.85bn investment where 6,700 people work. But rumours are sweeping the production line.

 

Steven, a Nissan production line worker in his 30s who declined to give his surname, said he had woken the morning after voting for Brexit and thought: “What have I done?”

 

“A lot of people are worried,” he said. Another employee, an engineer who also declined to be named, said: “Personally, I voted to remain. I was surprised that the figures were so high for Leave.”

 

He said: “I’m very worried. If we do end up leaving it is going to be difficult for the Sunderland plant to remain competitive as most of our exported vehicles go to Europe. So it will be more difficult to get new vehicles into the plant.”

 

Steven said workers were already worried, noting that the constant fight to win new models against fierce competition from other Nissan/Renault alliance sites left the workers living under a “dark cloud” of possible job losses should the site not keep beating the opposition.

 

“We have had that threat of redundancies hanging over us for years,” he said. “We have that threat all the time; it’s just been another threat.”

 

Speaking to Nissan employees is difficult: the company declined to allow access to the plant, and most workers drive in and out of the complex.

 

The UK’s biggest single car making site, the plant produces one in three UK-made cars and last year exported 55 per cent of its 476,589 vehicles to the EU — about 250,000 cars.

 

We will never know which way its Sunderland employees — or the 20,000 other people in its north-east supply chain — voted. But according to Steven, the workers around him were outspoken in their desire for Brexit.

 

What happens next is a matter of politics not law.

 

The company did not wish to be seen to interfere in British politics, but Carlos Ghosn, the chief executive, said his preference was for the UK to remain.

 

Inside the plant, there was a video briefing for employees, but Steven said he had understood the message to be that how he voted was up to him. “I voted Leave because I want Britain to be Britain again,” he said.

 

North-east England, heavily dependent on inward investors for its manufacturing base, sends 58 per cent of its exported goods to the EU, far above the UK’s 49 per cent average. Sunderland alone is home to more than 80 overseas-owned companies employing 25,600 people. Yet within the north-east only one of 12 areas — Newcastle — backed Remain and then only narrowly.

 

Many Leave voters thought Nissan, now the north-east’s largest private sector employer, had too much at stake at Sunderland to pull out. This summer it marks 30 years of car production in the town.

 

It is unlikely Nissan would instantly withdraw from a site of such strategic significance; models include the Qashqai, the all-electric Leaf and its most recent massive investment, the Infiniti. But the threat is that, if hampered by adverse trade terms, the site may start to lose the fight for new models, ushering in decline.

 

Steven, unable to turn the clock back, said: “Hopefully our government, when they eventually get themselves sorted out, will put money into Nissan. If the government say don’t leave, we will make an offer you can’t refuse — hopefully that’s what’s going to happen.”

 

Another worker with many years of service at the company said money was still being invested and this was unlikely to change. Since Nissan workers commute from all over the north-east, Sunderland’s large majority for Leave did not necessarily reflect the vote at plant level.

 

He declined to say which way he had voted but commented; “We can only carry on as a plant and do the best we can.”