印度：總產值，還是廁所？

說起經濟增長，現在大家不說中國了，都說印度。在中國，政府還在說總產值，增長率，但大家都覺得沒勁，老掉牙了，不如說豬肉、美食，百姓有沒有好日子，才是真的。

 

我在“莫迪當政”裏說

不過印度說是說增長勢頭不減少當初，印象是本質上的經濟結構其實沒改，如土地、稅製等，官僚體製一般臃腫、腐敗，基本解決基礎還是艱難重重，如醫療、水源、能源電力、交通，甚至簡單的衛生營養，莫迪也是無可奈何，實在難以覺得此種趨勢能將印度帶到何年何月。

印度出口不具競爭力，全靠內銷帶動經濟，不過總覺得虛的不少（參見：印度經濟數據不靠譜？）。

 

瞧瞧老百姓吧。

 

In India, access to toilets remains a huge problem — worst of all for women and girls

 

據說過7億人沒廁所，有手機的人比有廁所的人還多。

 

7億人。畸形。

 

光就上廁所，損失多大？莫迪也確實打算解決這個難題，也撥了專款，但效果甚微。

 

《英國廣播公司》On a toilet 'patrol' in rural India
The Indian government's high-profile campaign to provide every household with a toilet by 2019 has hit a hurdle - people are refusing to use them.

 

西方則忙著給莫迪拍馬屁：

 

《華爾街日報網文》See India’s Most Beautiful Toilets

 

對比一下：

 

要總產值，還是廁所？

 

 

【附錄】

跟中國一比，印度整個兒落後：

 

 

印度奧運金牌為何那麽少——兼論其經濟能否超越中國

李迅雷 2016-06-11

印度渴望從中國汲取崛起經驗

王文

《環球》

專家：印度海軍深陷日反華想定 被日本當槍使

日本隻怕這三國海軍沒中國卻有印度？揭真相

 

U.S., India, Japan Begin to Shape New Order on Asia’s High Seas

The three democracies are pursuing closer ties and military cooperation to counter an assertive China

【中文版摘要】

 

NEW DELHI—From the waters of the Philippine Sea this week emerged a partial outline of Washington’s vision for a new Asian maritime-security order that unites democratic powers to contend with a more-assertive and well-armed China.

 

A U.S. Navy aircraft-carrier strike group along with warships from India and Japan jointly practiced anti-submarine warfare and air-defense and search-and-rescue drills in one of the largest and most complex exercises held by the three countries.

 

The maneuvers were being tracked by a Chinese surveillance vessel, a U.S. Navy officer aboard the carrier USS John C. Stennis said on Wednesday. Last week, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Beijing hoped the training “will be conducive to regional peace, security and stability.”

 

Washington and Tokyo have long cooperated closely on defense. And the U.S. has been working to deepen strategic ties with India and to encourage New Delhi to play a more active role, not just in the Indian Ocean but also in the Pacific, as China’s rise shifts the regional balance of power.

 

“Americans are looking for those who can share the burden,” said C. Raja Mohan, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s India center. A strengthened three-way partnership among the U.S., Japan and India is “an important strategic shift.”

 

India, which is proud of its tradition as a nonaligned state, is unlikely to agree to any formal military alliance. But the countries already have a trilateral ministerial dialogue process that began last year.

 

Cementing those relationships has been an important U.S. objective as it grapples with what American officials have called China’s growing “militarization” of the South China Sea, where Beijing is embroiled in territorial disputes with its neighbors and is building up artificial islands and reefs with runways capable of handling military aircraft.

 

The U.S. has sent warships and planes through a series of operations to challenge Chinese claims, saying its aim is to ensure freedom of navigation in waters that carry one-third of global trade.

 

Some smaller nations have felt threatened by Beijing’s activities, but haven’t always been able to agree on how to respond. This week, discord among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—a 10-member bloc comprising countries of disparate economic stature and cultures—surfaced when, under pressure from Beijing, the group failed to agree on a statement of concern about rising tensions in the South China Sea. The episode exposed Asean’s limited ability to manage regional security issues and China’s success in frustrating the bloc’s efforts to find a common voice.

 

During a visit to the U.S. last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that “the absence of an agreed security architecture creates uncertainty” in Asia and that a strong partnership between India and the U.S. would help ensure freedom of navigation and the security of sea lanes.

 

India sent two stealth frigates, a guided-missile corvette and a fleet-support ship to join the multiday Malabar exercises, part of an annual series of U.S.-India maneuvers that have grown increasingly sophisticated and wide-ranging. Japan has been a regular participant since 2014.

 

Before the drills, which officially started last week, Indian vessels made port calls in Vietnam and the Philippines, countries that have disputes with China in the South China Sea.

 

India’s defense minister, Manohan Parrikar, speaking at a regional security meeting in Singapore earlier this month, said: “All countries in the region need to recognize that our shared prosperity…will be put at risk by aggressive behavior or actions by any one of us.”

 

India, the world’s largest democracy and its second-most-populous country, is wary of China’s increasing naval presence in the Indian Ocean, as well as its growing influence among New Delhi’s neighbors in South Asia, where Beijing is funding infrastructure projects.

 

The two countries share a long, disputed land border, over which they fought a war in 1962. Wariness of China has helped accelerate the transformation of India’s relationship with the U.S. from one of strained suspicion during the Cold War to one of increasing warmth.

 

Washington and New Delhi have agreed to cooperate on logistics—with a deal allowing the countries’ armed forces to use each other’s bases for replenishment and repair—as well as defense production.

 

Mr. Modi has declared plans to spend billions of dollars upgrading India’s navy. Still, it will be some time before India has the strength to routinely project meaningful power outside the Indian Ocean region.

 

India’s relations with Japan have also strengthened. The two nations have declared a “strategic partnership” and agreed to deepen security cooperation. They have also agreed to tighten cooperation on economic matters.

 

During a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to New Delhi in December, the two sides said India and Japan would work together on infrastructure projects in South Asia, a move aimed at blunting inroads by China.

 

While the U.S., India and Japan pursue closer ties, they are nonetheless wary of increasing tensions in the region. Beijing in the past has reacted negatively when it feels countries are joining together to contain it.