邁入尾聲的兩黨提名

今天又是個“周二紅”，五州給本黨總統競選提名，濱州，馬裏蘭，康州，特拉華，羅德島。雖不是生死的分量，說多不多，說少不少：

票數	民主黨	共和黨
濱州	210	71
馬裏蘭	118	38
康州	70	28
特拉華	31	16
羅德島	33	19
總	462	172

也過了（總數）兩成的票數。


紐約郵報的彩畫報道

共和黨還有點難分難解的意思，民主黨大概會了解了。


克林頓領先275票，不是“壓倒性”，不過閑得死無法扭轉劣勢


共和黨淳樸大幅領先，但獲得半數還不能敲定，戰火熊熊

想簡明地了解了解美國大選政治精華，讀讀可憐百姓思奧巴，有個大概。


三大州民調
民主黨




共和黨




此報道簡單總結了當前的局勢：
2016 Primaries: Tuesday Elections Favor the Frontrunners

民主黨
克林頓與閑得死在康州打平，馬裏蘭壓倒性，濱州大幅領先。如果克林頓贏得六成，今天一天就能多了60~80張黨代表票，閑得死氣勢仍在，但無回天之力，恰如大眾電視台（PBS）所言：
Delegate math: How Tuesday could close door on Sanders bid

那民主黨還折騰啥呢？

折騰，是因為黨內還沒服克林頓。閑得死從默默無聞到今天聲勢浩大，盡管民主黨內一大群人打死也不會支持他（主要是黑人為主的少數群體），其聲望大有蓋過克林頓之勢：

年輕人中支持閑得死，一邊倒，4:1，參見美國兩代的交接。


連服飾都像賈姥姥，真丟臉

而克林頓的名聲則是越來越讓人討厭——盡管大家都覺得她會是個稱職好總統，黨內不少人都覺得克林頓及時遇上淳樸、庫魯斯這般人也未必勝算在手，也擔心一把。不過謝天謝地，淳樸盡管在黨內備受愛戴，在全國卻還是臭名昭著：

Poll shows that Millennials would flock to Clinton against Trump
“Nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the GOP nominated Trump against Clinton. Just 7% of Democrats would defect to the GOP.”
Poll: Hillary Clinton's "millennial problem" disappears against Donald Trump

共和黨
單看民意，淳樸大大領先，連克林頓也望塵莫及，有可能通吃（共和黨黨規）。不過即使如此淳樸也還是不能鎖住半數，還得爭鬥一番，而黨內則已下定決心要將其排擠在外，所以盡管淳樸先發製人的攻擊黨製乃被“非法操縱”（淳樸的話，“rigged system”，“corrupt enterprise”），在黨內造成“舊勢力借助規矩將我排擠在外”的風氣，前幾天黨代會上領導們堅持“黨規很公正”，沒被“非法操縱”，拒絕淳樸的指控，將對立局麵堅持到底。



還得有一番惡鬥，下步印第安納州是關鍵，參見淳樸贏共和黨提名有戲嗎？。

這一番惡鬥多半兒會分裂共和黨。黨內精英和控製共和黨大有錢人是不論如何要製止淳樸的崛升，但黨內基層普通黨員不答應：

《全國廣播公司NBC》Poll: Trump Reaches 50 Percent Support Nationally for the First Time（指黨內）


基層的反叛將上層領導、精英們打了個措手不及，至今唯有解決良策。曆史上一黨連任三界總體的為數不多，不但百姓對奧巴馬厭倦了，共和黨更是恨之入骨，就得本黨上天機會極大，但目前這一希望算是泡湯了，大家基本不抱任何妄想了，連極右的科赫兄弟都出來防風說寧要克林頓也不要淳樸，可見大家對淳樸是恨之入骨了。共和黨為什麽如此顧忌淳樸？
《赫芬頓郵報》Charles Koch: Clinton Might Make Better President Than Republican Candidates
《沙龍》Charles Koch goes full Tyrion Lannister: His threat to back Hillary hints at the brothers’ devious game of thrones

像科赫兄弟那種的，主要是經濟因素。淳樸盡管是共和黨，但以給低層孤立無援的人爭權益謀福利為口號，難免要動有錢人的錢包了，這是科赫兄弟等所不能容忍的。而共和黨的黨魁們則為自己的和黨的利益勢力提心吊膽，據估計，一旦淳樸提名，共和黨及其可能失去參議院，那可是江山全無了。

這正是為何共和黨寧願違背民意，造成黨內分裂也要跟淳樸決戰到底的原因。

隻是好戲就要收場了。

今晚歇歇，喝杯酒，來點兒豬耳朵，慢慢細嚼，享受享受。


【後記附錄】
《華爾街日報》
Map Shrinks for Donald Trump’s Foes
Ted Cruz and John Kasich pin their fading hopes on Indiana’s Republican presidential primary next week

ROCKVILLE, Md.—Donald Trump is poised to sweep five states’ Republican primaries on the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday, but his rivals are already looking ahead to next week’s contest in Indiana, which may be their last chance to keep Mr. Trump from clinching the party’s presidential nomination.



Polls have shown Mr. Trump leading in Indiana, which votes on May 3. But Sen. Ted Cruz now might have a better shot at beating Mr. Trump in the state, which has 57 delegates, because the Texas senator struck a deal on Sunday with John Kasich that calls for the Ohio governor not to compete in the Hoosier state.

It is a must-win state for anti-Trump forces. If Mr. Trump wins in Indiana after his expected victories on Tuesday, it will be much harder for his rivals to keep him from garnering the 1,237 pledged delegates he needs to win the Republican presidential nomination.

The GOP front-runner has already held one rally in Indianapolis and plans to be there again Wednesday, where his campaign said he would appear with former Indiana University basketball coach Bob Knight, a revered figure in the state.

Money is pouring into Indiana. According to a person who tracks media ad buys, the Trump campaign has spent nearly $800,000 on television and radio ads in Indiana. Two anti-Trump PACs have each spent roughly the same amount, and a pro-Cruz super PAC has spent more than $1 million attacking Mr. Kasich. Mr. Cruz’s campaign on Monday bought up $903,000 in air time in the state.

Mr. Trump is likely to go there with a strong wind at his back after Tuesday, when he is favored to win in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Those states will be sending 172 delegates to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July, and could add to Mr. Trump’s momentum after a big win in New York last week.

Mr. Cruz all but threw in the towel on the five-state primary by spending Monday campaigning in Indiana, a state more receptive to his evangelical conservative message than the more-liberal brand of Republicanism in states favoring Mr. Trump.

“The entire country, its eyes are on this great state to choose which path do we want to go down,” Mr. Cruz said in Borden, Ind., a day after announcing the last-ditch effort with Mr. Kasich to block Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump attacked his rivals over their plan to coordinate campaign strategy against him. “It shows how weak they are. It shows how pathetic they are,” Mr. Trump said at a campaign rally in Rhode Island. “It takes two guys, longtime politicians to get together to try to beat Trump, and yet they’re way behind.”

The Cruz-Kasich agreement, announced by campaign aides Sunday night, calls for Mr. Kasich to back away from campaigning in Indiana in exchange for the Cruz campaign staying out of Oregon’s primary on May 17 and New Mexico’s on June 7.

Still, in a sign of the tenuousness of the deal, Mr. Kasich on Monday stopped short of asking his supporters in Indiana to vote for Mr. Cruz, and described the deal as a prudent allocation of campaign resources. Both the Cruz and Kasich campaigns asked their supportive super PACs to follow their lead.

Read More on Capital Journal

“We want to get to an open convention so we can beat Hillary,” Mr. Kasich said in an interview after his Rockville rally here on Monday. “That’s what this is all about. I don’t want Hillary Clinton to be president, and I think if we go to an open convention, they’re going to look at who can win and who can actually run the country.”

Both Trump challengers are facing a stark political reality: The New York businessman, despite being unpopular with party leaders, is the only candidate who has any chance of securing a majority of pledged delegates before the party’s convention.

Mr. Trump now has 845 bound delegates, those who are required to back him on the first ballot at the convention. Mr. Cruz has 559 delegates and Mr. Kasich 148. With no chance of achieving the 1,237 majority, the Trump rivals’ only strategy is to force a contested convention that goes beyond a first ballot.

“When you have the kind of front-runner who two-thirds of Republican voters don’t agree with, you have to go to an open convention,” said David Beightol, a George H.W. Bush administration veteran who came to see Mr. Kasich at a Monday afternoon town hall event in Rockville. “It’s the only option for us now.”



Mr. Cruz, whose team had rejected past overtures to make such a deal, has only recently conceded that he had no path to win the nomination outright. At this point, he said in Indiana, the deal with Kasich is “dedicated to the primary goal of being able to beat Hillary Clinton.”

“It is abundantly clear that nobody is getting to 1,237,” he said. “We are headed to a contested convention.”

Of the 57 delegates at stake in Indiana, 30 are awarded to the candidate who wins the most votes statewide; the other 27 are awarded to the winner in each of the nine congressional districts.

Despite the Kasich campaign’s agreement to avoid Indiana—he canceled a planned Tuesday swing though the state—Mr. Kasich on Monday refused a suggestion that he tell his Indiana supporters to back Mr. Cruz.

“I’ve said all that I have to say about this,” he said in the Rockville interview. “I don’t tell voters how to vote. They decide and make up their own minds as they do.”

There are inherent dangers for Messrs. Cruz and Kasich in a public collaboration to block Mr. Trump. To some voters, the deal could reek of collusion—a charge Mr. Trump made on Monday.

“I think it’s desperation. It makes no sense,” said Kevin Hunter of Rockville, a Republican who said Monday that he is undecided between the three candidates. “For Kasich and Cruz to agree to this after going off on each other for so long makes them look like hypocrites. … It just blows my mind that Kasich is going to agree to this deal.”

Mr. Trump, whose aides have claimed he would be striking a more “presidential” pose, made fun of Mr. Kasich’s eating habits Monday and continued with his penchant for giving derogatory nicknames to his rivals. He said in Rhode Island that he would be calling Mr. Kasich “1-for-41,” in reference to his losing record in the primaries and caucuses outside his home state of Ohio.

“Very soon, it’s going to be 1 for 46 or 7,” Mr. Trump added.



《紐約時報》Donald Trump Doesn’t Need Indiana Anymore
Nate Cohn APRIL 28, 2016


Donald Trump supporters in Harrisburg, Pa., last week. Credit Damon Winter/The New York Times

For the last month or so, Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates has been clear: Win Indiana and California.

But after his strong showings in the Northeast, Indiana no longer seems to be a must-win state to capture the Republican nomination.

Sure, winning the state would be very helpful toward gaining a majority of delegates. Without Indiana, he would struggle to get the 1,237 bound delegates needed to wrap up the nomination heading into the convention. But there’s now a credible path to winning on the first ballot without it.

The main reason is Mr. Trump’s success on Tuesday among Pennsylvania’s 54 unpledged delegates. Even though none of them are officially bound to a candidate, 31 of the 54 spots went to delegates preferred by Mr. Trump. And before the election, others had said they would vote for the winner of their district (Mr. Trump won all of the state’s districts). My colleague Jeremy W. Peters reported that Mr. Trump “appeared to have won about 40 of Pennsylvania’s 54 unbound delegates.”

Graphic: How the Rest of the Delegate Race Could Unfold
An interactive delegate calculator that lets you simulate how the 2016 Republican nomination process could unfold.



If this holds, the delegate math is a little different than what you might have read last week here or elsewhere. That’s because my analysis and that of others included only pledged delegates; the 54 unpledged delegates were held out of Mr. Trump’s path to 1,237.

If he has indeed moved many of those delegates off the sideline and into his territory, it obviates the necessity for him to win Indiana, which is worth 57 delegates (30 delegates to the statewide winner and three delegates to the winner of each of nine congressional districts). He would still need a comfortable victory in California — enough to win about 130 of the state’s 172 delegates in the event of a loss in Indiana. He could bring that figure as low as 115 with good outcomes in West Virginia, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico, or with a few additional districts in Indiana.

The 130-delegate target in California is achievable. The state awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis statewide and by congressional district, so Mr. Trump would need an overall victory (13 delegates) and wins in about 40 of the state’s 53 congressional districts to pull it off. Even a modest popular vote victory could do the trick. In 2008, John McCain won 48 of California’s 53 congressional districts with a 7.5-point margin of victory in the popular vote. And Mr. Trump won every congressional district Tuesday night in the Northeast.

Mr. Trump leads in all of the most recent California polls; he had an eye-popping 49 percent of the vote in the most recent Fox News and CBS News/YouGov surveys.

Of course, he would prefer to win most of Indiana’s delegates. Without them, he would probably face some drama on the first ballot at the Republican convention. The Pennsylvania unbound delegates remain free agents, allowed to vote for whomever they want, and the same is true for other unbound delegates that Mr. Trump would try to woo.

A win in Indiana would allow him to win with even a narrow victory in California.

But the old analysis, based solely on pledged delegates, no longer holds: Winning in Indiana doesn’t seem necessary for him to win the nomination.


【Rasmussen Reports】24% Opt Out of a Clinton-Trump Race