多哈論油油泡湯？

等待已久的多哈產油協商在即，種種"達成"封產的傳說讓油價大幅上升（參見：油價直上$50？）。華爾街的頭禪是“亂市買入，見好就收“（buy the rumor, sell the news），今天油價算是歇歇了：

在美元不漲的情況下下跌，實際幅度更大了：


華爾街日報開玩笑說這是小題大做（Much Ado About Doha）,沒人覺得此輪“商討”對全球原油供給會有任何實質上的影響：
《彭博（昨天）》IEA Sees Oil Oversupply Almost Gone in Second Half on Shale Drop
“there will be little real impact from the accord, due to be finalized in Doha this weekend, the IEA said”


倒是國際能源署（IEA）說的“到下半年美國頁岩油產業將會倍徹底打敗，不會再有原油過剩的情況”給油市大牛打了一氣。

《華爾街日報簡介》The Oil World Descends on Doha
伊朗石油部長說是不去，伊朗已經三番五次說隻會增產了。

《彭博（今天）》Oil Falls Before Doha as Global Markets Brace for Weekend Risk


《彭博》Oil Freeze: Everything You Need to Know About the Doha Summit

How likely is an agreement?
Forty traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg this week were evenly split on whether there will be a deal. While Russia’s Energy Ministry is “optimistic” and Qatar’s has a “positive feeling,” Saudi Arabia has said it will only cap its output if Iran follows suit -- a notion Tehran has dismissed as “ridiculous.”
What impact would a freeze have on oil prices?
Crude has rallied more than 30 percent to above $40 a barrel since the preliminary freeze accord in mid-February prompted a shift in market sentiment. A final accord could lock that gain in place, or even extend it to $50, said Bank of America Corp. Yet a freeze will do little to mop up the glut because Saudi Arabia and Russia -- the world’s biggest crude producers -- are already pumping near record levels. Morgan Stanley said “our downbeat oil view is unchanged” by the prospects of a freeze.

《彭博》Saudi Prince Reiterates Oil Freeze Depends on Others Joining
沒伊朗行嗎？謠言說沙俄已默許，行。果真嗎？
最新報告：出自沙特主管經濟的阿勒沙特王子（Prince Mohammed bin Salman）之口：
“If all major producers don’t freeze production, we will not freeze production,”
“If we don’t freeze, then we will sell at any opportunity we get.”
“If prices went up to $60 or $70, that would be a strong factor to push forward the wheel of development,” Prince Mohammed said. “But this battle is not my battle. It’s the battle of others who are suffering from low oil prices.”
“we have our own programs that don’t need high oil prices.”

趕緊買。

老實說，大拿們對油價也六神無主，隻是叫嚷“高”的雷聲大。
《商業有線電視CNBC》