罪魁禍首乃央行

大家也許不太留意黑岩（BlackRock，黑岩自己起的中外名字是貝萊德，夠響）是個什麽樣的公司，不過不知道交易所板塊交易金（ETF）的估計不多。板塊金不但方便，也給傳統的給共存基金了個致命的衝，難說它還能撐多少年。而在板塊金的行業，大名鼎鼎，壓倒性的是I版，既iShares，而I版就是黑岩的傑作。

黑岩I版工具，羅列表



黑岩是世界上最大的理財公司，管轄4.5萬億（美元）的資產，即使你不用I版，難免不予黑岩有瓜葛，故此其對世界經濟的態度也是大家關注的的項目。本來黑岩管理完善，理財有方，除了幫大家理財。，自己也常常賺的大滿貫。隻是時日不再，風光難持，除了跟著黨大步走，其他法子大都不靈，隻是這種瞎著眼睛不看路的招子向來不是黑岩此類理財專業店的手段，這一來，黑岩也陷入了困境。

近日，黑岩公布收成（上市排號BLK.N），不光鮮。
《路透社》BlackRock to restructure after 'tough' first quarter
《華爾街日報》BlackRock Gains $36 Billion in New Client Funds, But Misses Earnings Expectations

黑岩的老總叫芬克（Larry Fint），公開說話不多，但有份量。他說“此季度難過”。在給股東的公開信裏他說：
《華爾街日報網文》BlackRock’s Larry Fink Strikes Pessimistic Tone on Global Economy in Letter
對日本的政策憂慮尤甚：
The world's largest investor says negative rates are breeding a disaster for the economy

芬克掌握的資料多，見世麵廣，能對中期的世界經濟有一個叫合理的判斷，對我做全局判斷有影響。二月間當股市大跌到近1800是，他覺得股市還有可能再跌10%，原因是“市場毫無驚恐的感覺”，這在當時屬於少數觀點。我倒不是就信了他的，但對市場無動於衷還是有同感。

公司收成後，芬克出頭說了話。
《商業有線電視CNBC》采訪
This is 'biggest crisis' in the world

大家對各國央行勵誌救市的行徑都是心照不宣，覺得能發財，不宜多說閑話，參見我的姚奶奶當家。不過瞪著大眼睛的人不少，等著啥時跳車逃離。舉個例子，世界上沒有比日本央行更加赤裸裸的投入股市的，中國與其一比，簡直就是小兒科。半年前，日央行就已經擁有過半的板金了：
《彭博》Owning Half of Japan's ETF Market Might Not Be Enough for Kuroda

黑田東彥還覺得不夠。夠意思。在債券市場，那就是央行的本份了：

昨天，黑田東彥要來真的：
《路透社》BOJ warming to idea of buying more stocks funds: sources

公開出頭叫嚷央行政策危害的還有埃裏安（Mohamed El-Erian，曾任太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）擔任首席執行官兼聯合首席投資官老總），埃裏安覺得現在央行基本是回天乏術，到了黔驢技窮之際，接著采用目前的支持，隻能給世界經濟帶來巨大的危害。

《彭博》Japan Is Fast Approaching the Quantitative Limits of Quantitative Easing


實際上央行此種行徑無異承認第一其貨幣政策是徹底失敗，行不通，隻不過經濟學家不這麽說，之說還不夠，加碼下次準行，標準愛因斯坦所說的“瘋了”；第二全球（各國政府的）財政政策也基本失敗。隻有在財政政策失敗的情形下，央行才被迫用此下策。

沒人說，也沒人相信你這麽覺得股市明天就塌了。隻是爬得高跌的慘，靠吹上去的，遲早的事兒。反正是過了這村就沒了這店，能吃上好飯，大家不會放過，不過酒醒了，還得盯著自己的錢包啊。


【附錄】
《華爾街日報》Japan’s Negative-Rate Experiment Is Floundering
Trading withers in money markets, yen goes on a tear; ‘every day is like being Alice in Wonderland’

TOKYO—Japan’s two-month experiment with negative interest rates is producing some unexpected results.

Trading has withered in Japan’s money markets, where big banks and others usually park their excess cash hoping to receive some interest—despite predictions from the Bank of Japan that its latest easing of monetary policy would spark more activity. And there has been a rush in demand for Japanese government bonds even as many yields went below zero.

Instead of falling, the yen has surged to 18-month highs against the U.S. dollar.

Still, Japan’s central-bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, who was in New York Wednesday, said the Bank of Japan is ready to expand its bond-buying program and cut interest rates further into negative territory as it attempts to bolster economic growth. The BOJ “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures in terms of…quantity, quality and the interest rate if it is judged necessary,” he said.

Participants in the Japanese markets have less conviction than Mr. Kuroda. In interviews, they describe a banking and finance system that is increasingly scrambled by negative rates and their consequences.

“Every day is like being Alice in Wonderland,” said Tomohisa Fujiki, head of interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas Securities Japan. “Interest-rate levels are having little effect on credit demand, the market function is declining. You can’t expect everything to go according to plan.”

Japan surprised markets in January when it set a minus—0.1% rate on some deposits that banks place at the central bank, effective from mid-February. Its move was designed to encourage banks to lend more, spurring higher spending and inflation. Yet that has not been the case so far.

Lower interest rates normally lead a country’s currency to depreciate, helping its exporters—a key aim of “Abenomics,” the package of stimulus measures brought in by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

《華爾街日報》相關報道
A World of Negative Rates
As central bankers around the world push deeper into the once-unthinkable world of negative interest rates—essentially charging customers to hold their cash—The Wall Street Journal explores how negative rates are playing out on the ground and what they mean for policy makers and markets. Other articles in the series:
    A Swiss Bank Enters Uncharted Territory
    German Life Insurers Feel Pain of Low Rates
    Duration Risk: The Bomb Ticking Inside Today’s Bond Market
    In Denmark, Home Borrowers Collect Interest
    Streetwise: The Next Step: A ‘Helicopter Drop’
    Would Negative Rates Work in the U.S.?
    Negative Rates: What You Need to Know
    Read on Flipboard: A World Awash in Negative Rates

Instead, the yen has been bolstered both by its re-emergence this year as a haven currency amid uncertain global markets, and by the dollar’s recent weakness after the Federal Reserve pared back expectations of U.S. interest-rate increases.

Demand is coming from an unusual source: foreign investors, who in the past have largely stayed out of the low-yield market but have recently jumped in because of rising returns on Japanese-bond trades thanks to the cheaply funded yen.

Traders also have pushed up the yen believing Japan’s central bank can’t do much more to ease policy.

“There is no guarantee that lowering interest rates encourages corporate capital expenditures or expedites the shift of household financial assets from savings to investment,” said Nobuyuki Hirano, president of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial?Group?Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, on Thursday, adding the negative-interest policy had caused households and businesses to rein in spending amid growing uncertainty over the future.

One problem has been Japanese banks’ computer systems: The trade-confirmation system used by money-market brokers wasn’t fully updated for negative interest rates until over a month after the BOJ rate cut. Money-market trading volumes dropped to their lowest level since at least 2011 at the end of March, according to Japan’s Money Brokers Association, down to nearly a 10th of January’s levels.



Money markets allow banks and other financial institutions to lend and borrow money for a period of less than a year, often not backed by collateral. If fewer banks invest cash in short-term markets, it is harder for other banks to get short-term loans to finance their operations.

Japanese trust banks that manage cash on behalf of mutual and pension funds have in recent weeks been placing excess money on deposit at the BOJ rather than into overnight money markets, where it might now attract a negative interest rate.

“If the money market dries up, if there is an event like the Lehman crisis, there won’t be the infrastructure for banks to raise capital,” said Naomi Muguruma, strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “It could cause interest rates to rise sharply.”

Placing money at the central bank also can attract a negative-interest-rate charge, if the amount of cash set aside in this way exceeds the trust bank’s quota. Starting on April 18, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. will start passing on that charge to mutual-fund managers and pension funds, levying a 0.1% and 0.06% fee respectively on excess cash that it used to invest in the money market. Another large institution, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd., says it will implement similar fees.

Problems in the money markets have run counter to Mr. Kuroda’s expectations: last month he said that as market players get used to negative rates, money-market trading should increase. Mr. Kuroda predicted banks that had to pay a minus-0.1% interest rate on some of their reserves would want to lend out that money for a higher rate.

Instead, Japanese financial institutions have been searching overseas for higher returns, without a corresponding rise in investment at home. Japanese investors bought a total of ¥5.47 trillion ($50 billion) worth of foreign securities in March, up 11% from February, according to the finance ministry.

In turn, the amount foreign financial institutions can charge to lend greenbacks to Japanese investors has surged. The premium for a three-month contract to exchange yen for dollars is now at ¥0.298, almost twice what it was a year ago.

Foreign investors have been recycling the yen they get back into Japanese government bonds, traders say, even though yields on a range of these bonds have turned negative in recent weeks—meaning investors who buy them end up paying money to Japan’s government. But the fee foreign institutions can charge to lend dollars is now so high that it outweighs the cost of holding negative-yield-bearing bonds, which remain the safest place for investors to park their yen.

The upshot: an unusual bout of foreign interest in Japan’s government bonds, an often sleepy market where overseas investors have generally held under 10% of outstanding bonds. Net foreign buying of medium-term Japanese government bonds was double the 12-month average in February, the most recent month for which data are available.



In all, foreigners bought a net ¥18.3 trillion worth of Japanese government bonds in February, according to the Japan Securities Dealers Association, up 16% from the month before. Overseas investors accounted for over one-quarter of all trading in short-term Japanese government bonds that month, and 15% of trading in medium-term bonds.

The strong desire among some Japanese investors for dollars hasn’t been enough to keep the yen down, however.

“There’s no rhyme or reason on why the yen would strengthen when interest rates are negative,” said Bart Wakabayashi, managing director at State Street Global Markets. “But the yen has now reasserted itself as a safe-haven currency on concerns about China and the global economy. And at the same time, doubts are emerging over the staying power of Abenomics.”