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最可恨,最不可信的美股牛市?

(2016-04-12 14:19:57) 下一個

美國人常說“美國最可恨的牛市",不但是“最可恨,最不可信”,而且是“有史以來”,比如見文學城此文“今天是美國最可恨的牛市七周年“,還有
《新浪》有史以來最不可信的美股牛市?
《moneydj》七年之癢:美股史上最不受投資者待見的牛市
7年1

7年4

都說是“聯儲印錢買來的牛市”。

是不是聯儲印錢買來的牛市,說來話長,聯儲關係重大,那是逃脫不了的。說是“最可恨,最不可信“,那是因為大家一直相信無數股民因為給2007-2008美國金融大危機導致的全球經濟大危機嚇著了,從來沒有真心進入股市,從而失去了這一”有史以來“最大的”“發財致“的順風車。

看看股市,你要是咬咬牙,一口氣下定決心跟黨走,你的資產幾乎翻了兩番,現在天天吃龍蝦都遊戲了。從(美國)全國來看,總財富大幅度增加,超越了危機以前的水平。相信黨相信政府。

不過事實真的如此嗎?

下文以簡單的數據說非也,因為大家嘴裏說不信、恨,但真正的資產都押在股市上了。

美國的財富大多在金融資產上,就是說股票,而且信心十足。熊市來了,大家一鍋端。

【短評】
如果大家的股票都翻了兩番,美國人不是都成了富翁了嗎?那大家為啥還這麽多怨言?
那是因為美國窮人基本上沒有股票,越富,股票越多,《華爾街日報》的此圖是例子之一:


蓋勒普的調查
Americans Invested in Stock Market -- Selected Trend
由此你可見為什麽美國貧富分化如此嚴重,無法解決。

The Felder Report
It’s Time To Put An End To The “Most Hated Bull Market” Meme

Jesse FelderMedia, Meme, Sentiment, Social Media, Stock Market, Wall Street

We’ve been hearing for years now how this is supposedly, “the most hated bull market in Wall Street history.” In fact, it’s become such a popular meme that even USA Today picked it up this week and ran with it. The trouble is there is absolutely no evidence at all to support this idea.

In fact, all the sentiment studies I look at suggest this has been one of the most beloved stock markets in Wall Street history. The Investors’ Intelligence survey is just coming off its longest sustained period of extreme bullishness ever recorded. Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.26.55 AMChart via Yardeni.com

Surveys are fine but I prefer to look at what investors are actually doing with their money. Confirming the extreme bullishness in the II survey is mutual fund cash levels, which recently hit an all-time low as a percent of total assets.

Mutual_Fund_Cash_LevelChart via SentimenTrader.com

Another record-breaking extreme in bullishness witnessed recently can be seen in the positioning of traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds.

Rydex

Beyond this small group of mutual funds, we can also look at total household assets as reported by the Fed. There has never been a time in history when investors have allocated as much money to stocks relative to cash as they have today.

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.29.52 AM

Furthermore, investors aren’t just allocating a massive amount of money to stocks, they are borrowing money from their brokers to buy even more, and doing so in record amounts.

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.37.42 AM

Even when you adjust margin debt for the growth in the overall economy, it recently hit an all-time record high. (And, btw, this doesn’t bode well for the, “bull market.”)

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 9.37.53 AM

It may be hard to believe but the fact is every one of these measures shows more euphoria among investors than any other time in at least a generation or two, including the dotcom bubble. So if you could stop calling this, “the most hated bull market in history,” that’d be great.

 

【附錄:研究資料、報告】
Household Wealth in China Yu Xie and Yongai Jin
The Great Housing Boom of China Kaiji Chen and Yi Wen
瑞信:Global Wealth in 2015: Underlying Trends Remain Positive

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