美國否決國際貨幣基金改革

大家對中國建立亞投行的原因、目標和對世界金融次序的影響，說多了，不摻乎什麽了。直接的原因之一，可以說是導火索，在【1】解釋了，是因為美國百般阻撓國際貨幣基金組織改革，不讓中國和發展中國家在國際貨幣基金組織中有足夠的代表，堅持美國、歐洲為主導（歐洲實際上已經意識到其結構的不合理性，願意讓步）。奧巴馬在2010年也已經接受、答應改革了，後來國會阻撓是真，但奧巴馬暗暗覺得不能允許中國有任何空間才是主要原因。

奧巴馬自己食言。

結果亞投行勢不可擋，不隻是中國全勝，實際上全世界（包括歐洲、澳大利亞）都借中國出了口惡氣。都覺得美國栽了個大跟頭，就是美國自己不認，現在改口說美國其實“支持”。

不久前，值安倍訪美，最可笑的，最有諷刺的，也是對中國最大侮辱的，是奧巴馬說亞投行“我們是開玩笑了”（你誤解了，沒這意思）【2】。不過這叫自己給自己麵子，找台階下，世上有多少人相信呢？



人民幣盡管沒有取代美元的可能性，但是用於貿易結算的越來越多，尤其是中國貿易，人民幣國際化，是李克強今年的主要目標，將為世界貿易以人民幣結算打下基礎。為此，李克強堅持不讓人民幣貶值【7】，同時周小川緊鑼密鼓在國際貨幣基金組織做兩件事兒：一是改革，改變國際貨幣基金組織目前的投票權結構，而是讓人民幣成為國際貨幣基金組織特別提款權的一部分（【3】【4】【5】【6】）。

國際貨幣基金組織總裁（前法國財長）拉加德也再三表示支持。中國此行，不僅僅是為自己爭取應有的權力，也是代表發展中國家爭取它們應有的權力。多年來，發展中國家對國際貨幣基金組織的結構，可以說是恨透了，除希臘烏克蘭之類的，跟國際貨幣基金組織打交道的，當今還真沒幾個。

最近，周小川重複表示中國是不耐煩了【8】

"[We] are upset and deeply disappointed by the current progress in regard to the reform of the shareholding system in the IMF," China News Service quoted Zhou as saying on Sunday.

China and other major emerging economies have long been dissatisfied with the delay in the IMF reform to give them a greater say. They have also been hamstrung by their lack of influence in the institution. Although the BRICS leading emerging market economies account for more than one-fifth of the global economy, together they wield about 11 per cent of the votes at the IMF.

幾周前世行國際貨幣基金組織年會，改革的話題再次成為主題，大家都盯著美國。

奧巴馬大概覺得近來成就不少，泛太協議國內授權法基本通過，和日本談判有突破性進展（其它小國都是砧板魚肉），奧安二人都急於讓泛太協議成為抵抗中國的柱石，極力壓迫國內各派。一高興，暗示國防部長放風說要派飛機軍艦到南海跟中國撞一把，嚇唬嚇唬，試探一下。

這一來，奧巴馬勁頭來了，底氣足了，周末放出風聲，我們不幹，國際貨幣基金組織改革，作廢【9】(The Obama administration signaled it won’t jeopardize the U.S. power to veto IMF decisions to achieve its goal of giving China and other emerging markets more clout at the lender)。

看你中國怎麽著？

美國從亞投行學到了什麽？

老子老大地位，牢不可破，無人能撼，老子不怕得罪全世界，你們服也行，不服也行，隨你。

美國不僅僅是頂住了中國，還得罪了所有發展中國家。記得以前聽說過，農民解放，就是有一天農民把地主給解雇了。用不著把地主殺了宰了，就是不跟你玩兒了。



【1】中國為什麽建亞投行？
【2】Obama on the Beijing-Led AIIB: All Just a Misunderstanding
【3】人民幣與特別提款權
【4】人民幣與特別提款權：為什麽，缺什麽？
【5】國際貨幣基金宣布人民幣價值公平
【6】亞投行、亞發行、金磚銀行、世行
【7】4月貿易看中國經濟
【8】《南華早報》China frustrated by delayed reforms to increase its say at IMF
【9】彭博Obama Seeks to Keep IMF Veto as China Influence Is Expanded



《南華早報》2015.04.20
China frustrated by delayed reforms to increase its say at IMF


Zhou Xiaochuan says China is deeply disappointed by progress on reform of the IMF's shareholding system

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China was "more than frustrated" with the long delay in a 2010 reform package to increase China's say at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"[We] are upset and deeply disappointed by the current progress in regard to the reform of the shareholding system in the IMF," China News Service quoted Zhou as saying on Sunday.

Zhou made the remarks on the sidelines of the World Bank-IMF spring meetings and a gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs at the IMF's headquarters last week.

Zhou was referring to the IMF's 2010 reform package, which calls for a 6 per cent shift in voting rights from developed economies to emerging ones.

Washington has a de facto veto and the reform has been stalled for five years by the US Congress. Under the present system, the changes require more than 85 per cent of the total voting rights of the IMF's members to pass; the US has 16.42 per cent of those rights.

China and other major emerging economies have long been dissatisfied with the delay in the IMF reform to give them a greater say. They have also been hamstrung by their lack of influence in the institution. Although the BRICS leading emerging market economies account for more than one-fifth of the global economy, together they wield about 11 per cent of the votes at the IMF.

Among the BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - China has been particularly shortchanged, as its voting share has failed to keep pace with its rapid economic development. China accounts for 15.4 per cent of global GDP but has only 3.8 per cent of the IMF vote.

The IMF members are discussing an interim solution that does not need the US congressional approval.

Zhou said an alternative to the original reform programme could be introduced as an interim solution. "While we are pushing for fully implementing the 2010 quota reform, we should actively consider all possible options as an interim solution," he said.

Zhou also called for faster progress on broader IMF reforms, including one on governance. "[We] should make progress in many areas, including one on the reform of the governance structure, in addition to our effort to push ahead with reform in the shareholding quota system," he said.

The IMF is also considering whether to include the yuan in the basket of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). In a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in Beijing last month, Premier Li Keqiang urged Washington to support the change.

The SDRs are international foreign exchange reserve assets. SDRs represent a claim to foreign currencies for which it may be exchanged in times of need. The nominal value of an SDR is derived from a basket of currencies, mainly the US dollar, with a fixed amount of Japanese yen, British pounds and euros.

The SDR basket is based on two criteria: the size of the country's exports and whether its currency is freely convertible. In the IMF's last review in 2010, the yuan met only the first condition.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Beijing frustrated by lack of progress in IMF reform