笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
正文
南華早報有一篇中國鬼城的分析、報道（附錄在下），列舉了許多現象，同時有一個分析，分析是用了中國經濟研究人員陳勤的模型，對中國鬼城分布做了個圖，結果不一定準確，但也有一定可信程度。
參考消息的評論：2015.03.22港媒發布內地“鬼城”地圖 專家對此看法相左
參考消息網3月22日報道 港媒稱，在貴州省貴陽市的市中心，有兩座已動工過半的建築。這兩幢大樓和已經倒塌了的紐約世貿中心，有著幾分詭秘的相似感。這兩幢大樓建成之後，高度將達406米。香港《南華早報》網站3月19日報道稱，這是當地一個大型建築工程的一部分，其中的項目還包括一個奢侈品購物中心、一個遊樂園，甚至還有一個濕地保護區。當地政府的背後，有發展商的力量在支持著。他們希望通過這個項目吸引50萬居民到當地。但這裏麵有一個問題：有專家擔心，這個投資額達900億元人民幣的房產項目，到頭來隻會讓當地變成一個“鬼城”。在內地西南部省份，規模令人咋舌、但內裏空空如也的高樓大廈並不少見。報道說，截至去年，單是在貴州，已有16個大型工程在建或竣工。這些工程每一個的銷售麵積都超過100萬平方米，提供的住宅足夠供應這個城市超過四分之一的人口。不僅僅是貴陽，在武漢、南京和合肥等省會城市，這些前所未有的建築項目擴張工程都在如火如荼地進行當中。這波浪潮在一眾學者、地產商和政策製定者之間引發了激烈的討論，討論的核心在於，這些城市是否在製造越來越多的“鬼城”。
不知道“相左”在哪。
南華早報鬼城圖：
先前我收集過一些信息鄂爾多斯，鬼城、空城是事實，賴也賴不掉，辯護也沒有。
不過中國不是房產過剩，而是房產成了政府集資的（唯一）手段，有錢人斂財的手段，這是房產綁架中國經濟的根本。窮人嗎，還是買不起，住不上。即使目前兩會以後，改革、均貧富呼聲高，實際上習李還是沒什麽招數。
我倒是覺得有辦法，不過壓力大，習李也打不過。
鬼城分析組圖（點擊放大）：
全國
四大城（北上廣深）：問題不大
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小城：
南華早報2015.02.13Chasing ghosts
Where is China's next wave of empty 'new towns'?
A pair of skyscrapers bearing an uncanny resemblance to the ill-fated World Trade Centre in New York stand – half-completed – in downtown Guiyang, the capital city of China’s Guizhou province.
The towers, set to be 406 metres tall upon completion, are part of a mega-housing project which features a luxury shopping mall, an amusement park and even a wetlands reserve.
It’s a grand effort by a government-backed developer to attract around 500,000 residents – equivalent to 11 per cent of the city's total population of 4.5 million.
There is just one problem: experts fear that this 90 billion yuan (HK$113 billion) housing project will turn into yet another ghost town.
Stunning – but empty – housing complexes are hardly unusual in the southwestern province, which at 176,000 square kilometres is roughly the size of US states Missouri or Oklahoma.
As of last year, 16 mega-projects, each with more than 1 million square metres of total saleable area, had been built or were under construction in the provincial capital alone. Together, they provide enough housing for more than one fourth of the city's existing population.
The unprecedented proliferation of massive construction projects in provincial capitals like Guiyang, Wuhan, Nanjing and Hefei has triggered intense debate among academics, property moguls and policymakers about whether these cities are producing more and more ghost towns.
Unlike ghost towns in the West which are laid waste by wars, natural disasters, disease or failed economies, the ones in China are created out of haphazard and rushed projects by local governments attempting to boost GDP growth and reach urbanisation targets.
Housing revenue is a key pillar of China’s economy. The latest data from the national statistics bureau show that nearly 12 per cent of China’s GDP in 2014 came from new home sales, a similar level as the previous year.
This is higher than mature markets like the US, which maintains a ratio of 10 per cent, according to brokerage CLSA’s property research. Even Hong Kong, where property is a key wealth investment, housing contributed 8 to 9 per cent to the economy at its peak between 1997 and 1998, right before the property bubble burst.
But as much as local governments want to profit from vast land, there are many failed “new towns” in China’s third-tier cities, a classification that includes 74 small-and-medium sized cities with relatively robust economies, as there often aren't enough jobs or opportunities to attract a sustainable inflow of migrants.
While Guiyang, with better welfare and infrastructure than the rest of the province, which is China's poorest by per capita GDP, could attract migrants, it will not be a high enough influx in the short-term.
Cities like Sanya, Changzhou, Ganzhou and Wenzhou are also filled with vacant buildings or unfinished housing projects. At night, these buildings plunge into an eerie darkness save for a few lights – a sign that few people live there.
Sanya may be a popular coastal hotspot, but the tourists constitute a largely transient population. Other less developed cities fail to attract people because they are too remote, cold or do not offer enough economic opportunities.
Nevertheless, a study of 12 provinces showed that 133 out of 144 prefecture-level cities and 67 out of 161 county-level cities in China were planning on the “new town” constructions over the next few years, media reported in 2013.
Housing revenue is a key pillar of China’s economy. The latest data from the national statistics bureau show that nearly 12 per cent of China’s GDP in 2014 came from new home sales, a similar level as the previous year.
This is higher than mature markets like the US, which maintains a ratio of 10 per cent, according to brokerage CLSA’s property research. Even Hong Kong, where property is a key wealth investment, housing contributed 8 to 9 per cent to the economy at its peak between 1997 and 1998, right before the property bubble burst.
But as much as local governments want to profit from vast land, there are many failed “new towns” in China’s third-tier cities, a classification that includes 74 small-and-medium sized cities with relatively robust economies, as there often aren't enough jobs or opportunities to attract a sustainable inflow of migrants.
While Guiyang, with better welfare and infrastructure than the rest of the province, which is China's poorest by per capita GDP, could attract migrants, it will not be a high enough influx in the short-term.
Cities like Sanya, Changzhou, Ganzhou and Wenzhou are also filled with vacant buildings or unfinished housing projects. At night, these buildings plunge into an eerie darkness save for a few lights – a sign that few people live there.
Sanya may be a popular coastal hotspot, but the tourists constitute a largely transient population. Other less developed cities fail to attract people because they are too remote, cold or do not offer enough economic opportunities.
Nevertheless, a study of 12 provinces showed that 133 out of 144 prefecture-level cities and 67 out of 161 county-level cities in China were planning on the “new town” constructions over the next few years, media reported in 2013.
Overzealous urbanisation has raised speculation that the list of ghost towns will continue to grow, as the central government reins in speculative buying and property prices.
CLSA last year published an in-depth analysis on China’s ghost towns and projected that small Chinese cities would get even emptier in five years.
The CLSA report was based on an on-the-ground study of 609 construction projects in 12 Chinese cities.
It found that the average vacancy rate in China for property completed between 2009 and 2014 was 15 per cent – equivalent to 10.2 million empty units – which on the surface is nothing to worry about considering the US vacancy rate stands at 10 per cent.
“The bigger concern is the 17 per cent vacancy rate in remote, low-value properties,” the report said.
No official Chinese government data has been released on vacancy rates in cities, and experts and scholars have yet to reach consensus on the best scientific formula to calculate this.
There is just one problem: experts fear that this 90 billion yuan (HK$113 billion) housing project will turn into yet another ghost town.
Stunning – but empty – housing complexes are hardly unusual in the southwestern province, which at 176,000 square kilometres is roughly the size of US states Missouri or Oklahoma.
As of last year, 16 mega-projects, each with more than 1 million square metres of total saleable area, had been built or were under construction in the provincial capital alone. Together, they provide enough housing for more than one fourth of the city's existing population.
The unprecedented proliferation of massive construction projects in provincial capitals like Guiyang, Wuhan, Nanjing and Hefei has triggered intense debate among academics, property moguls and policymakers about whether these cities are producing more and more ghost towns.
Unlike ghost towns in the West which are laid waste by wars, natural disasters, disease or failed economies, the ones in China are created out of haphazard and rushed projects by local governments attempting to boost GDP growth and reach urbanisation targets.
Housing revenue is a key pillar of China’s economy. The latest data from the national statistics bureau show that nearly 12 per cent of China’s GDP in 2014 came from new home sales, a similar level as the previous year.
This is higher than mature markets like the US, which maintains a ratio of 10 per cent, according to brokerage CLSA’s property research. Even Hong Kong, where property is a key wealth investment, housing contributed 8 to 9 per cent to the economy at its peak between 1997 and 1998, right before the property bubble burst.
But as much as local governments want to profit from vast land, there are many failed “new towns” in China’s third-tier cities, a classification that includes 74 small-and-medium sized cities with relatively robust economies, as there often aren't enough jobs or opportunities to attract a sustainable inflow of migrants.
While Guiyang, with better welfare and infrastructure than the rest of the province, which is China's poorest by per capita GDP, could attract migrants, it will not be a high enough influx in the short-term.
Cities like Sanya, Changzhou, Ganzhou and Wenzhou are also filled with vacant buildings or unfinished housing projects. At night, these buildings plunge into an eerie darkness save for a few lights – a sign that few people live there.
Sanya may be a popular coastal hotspot, but the tourists constitute a largely transient population. Other less developed cities fail to attract people because they are too remote, cold or do not offer enough economic opportunities.
Nevertheless, a study of 12 provinces showed that 133 out of 144 prefecture-level cities and 67 out of 161 county-level cities in China were planning on the “new town” constructions over the next few years, media reported in 2013.
Housing revenue is a key pillar of China’s economy. The latest data from the national statistics bureau show that nearly 12 per cent of China’s GDP in 2014 came from new home sales, a similar level as the previous year.
This is higher than mature markets like the US, which maintains a ratio of 10 per cent, according to brokerage CLSA’s property research. Even Hong Kong, where property is a key wealth investment, housing contributed 8 to 9 per cent to the economy at its peak between 1997 and 1998, right before the property bubble burst.
But as much as local governments want to profit from vast land, there are many failed “new towns” in China’s third-tier cities, a classification that includes 74 small-and-medium sized cities with relatively robust economies, as there often aren't enough jobs or opportunities to attract a sustainable inflow of migrants.
While Guiyang, with better welfare and infrastructure than the rest of the province, which is China's poorest by per capita GDP, could attract migrants, it will not be a high enough influx in the short-term.
Cities like Sanya, Changzhou, Ganzhou and Wenzhou are also filled with vacant buildings or unfinished housing projects. At night, these buildings plunge into an eerie darkness save for a few lights – a sign that few people live there.
Sanya may be a popular coastal hotspot, but the tourists constitute a largely transient population. Other less developed cities fail to attract people because they are too remote, cold or do not offer enough economic opportunities.
Nevertheless, a study of 12 provinces showed that 133 out of 144 prefecture-level cities and 67 out of 161 county-level cities in China were planning on the “new town” constructions over the next few years, media reported in 2013.
Overzealous urbanisation has raised speculation that the list of ghost towns will continue to grow, as the central government reins in speculative buying and property prices.
CLSA last year published an in-depth analysis on China’s ghost towns and projected that small Chinese cities would get even emptier in five years.
The CLSA report was based on an on-the-ground study of 609 construction projects in 12 Chinese cities.
It found that the average vacancy rate in China for property completed between 2009 and 2014 was 15 per cent – equivalent to 10.2 million empty units – which on the surface is nothing to worry about considering the US vacancy rate stands at 10 per cent.
“The bigger concern is the 17 per cent vacancy rate in remote, low-value properties,” the report said.
No official Chinese government data has been released on vacancy rates in cities, and experts and scholars have yet to reach consensus on the best scientific formula to calculate this.
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