笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
剛剛還說，
消息一出，除了澳元反彈外，鐵礦石價也回升。
2015·01·06：第一財經轉載彭博：國務院去年底批準10萬億基建投資
國務院對此不認同，認為這是早就決定了的，不是新投資，以此類推，投資無從談起。
2015·01·08：發改委回應7萬億投資：與之前4萬億相比沒意義
2015·01·09：發改委回應“7萬億”：難測算，投資總量沒增加
“七大工程包”等重大工程不是說政府要新增多少財政投入，而是引導社會資本積極參與投資，在中央政府引導下，加強國家重大工程建設。
媒體對此的理解：
2015·01·09：如何看待“7萬億元”猜想
說起刺激經濟，央行顯然還有餘地降息，因為油價大跌讓中國得益非淺，物價漲勢甚微：
統計局解讀12月CPI及PPI：油價連跌影響大
中國地方政府和企業債務倒是一個嚴重的問題。
彭博： Charlene Chu Says China’s Credit Risks Worsening
彭博： China's Credit Growth Surges; Shadow Banking Stages a Comeback
路透社：China faces biggest fiscal challenge since '81 - Deutsche Bank report
金融時報網博：Lessons in sustainable finance from local Chinese governments
Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen：Financing the Next Stage of China’s Development with Consumer Credit
【中文版】
中國政府投降的另一個體現：
彭博： China Said to Plan Rollover of at Least Part of Lending Facility
彭博原文：
China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth
China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year as policy makers seek to shore up growth that’s in danger of slipping below 7 percent.
Premier Li Keqiang’s government approved the projects as part of a broader 400-venture, 10 trillion yuan plan to run from late 2014 through 2016, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the decision wasn’t public. The National Development and Reform Commission, which will oversee the projects, didn’t respond to a faxed request for comment.
The move illustrates concern among officials that China’s planned shift to a domestic-consumption driven economy has yet to produce enough growth momentum. The yuan rose, halting a two-day decline, and Australia’s dollar -- a proxy for China due to its shipments of iron ore and other commodities used in construction -- climbed after the news.
“It’s part of China’s efforts to stabilize growth, and the news will help to boost market confidence,” said Julia Wang, a Hong Kong-based economist with HSBC Holdings Plc. “Infrastructure investment will continue to be a major driver for China’s economic growth.”
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) pared a loss of as much as 1.4 percent to close little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.7 percent.
The approvals contrast with past moves to boost growth via infrastructure in which the government gave the green-light to projects individually. They are part of efforts to respond to weak output, according to the people.
Project Funding
The projects will be funded by the central and local governments, state-owned firms, loans and the private sector, said the people. The investment will be in seven industries including oil and gas pipelines, health, clean energy, transportation and mining, according to the people. They said the NDRC is also studying projects in other industries in case the government needs to provide more support for growth.
The NDRC’s spokesman, Li Pumin, said last month China would encourage investment in those areas.
The Economic Observer newspaper reported Dec. 26 on its website that an official from the NDRC’s Zhejiang provincial bureau said the government had approved more than 420 infrastructure projects needing investment of more than 10 trillion yuan, without specifying a timeframe.
Rail Investment
Rail investments may exceed 1.1 trillion yuan this year as investments in the previous four years lagged behind the five-year plan for 2011-2015, Han Siyi, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities, said at a conference in Shanghai today.
China has sought ways to stimulate growth without resorting to full-blown stimulus as it seeks to keep a lid on total debt that is now more than 200 percent of gross domestic product. The central bank added liquidity into the banking system last year and announced an interest-rate cut on Nov. 21.
“It’s not 2008 again,” Zhao Xijun, a finance professor with Renmin University of China in Beijing, said in reference to a 4 trillion yuan stimulus China unleashed at that time. “When China launched the big stimulus package in 2008 to deal with the global financial crisis, China wanted nothing but faster growth; now China is focusing more on quality, efficiency and sustainability.”
Infrastructure Spending
China’s total fixed-asset investment in the first 11 months of the year was 45.1 trillion yuan. Infrastructure spending totaled 9.8 trillion yuan in transportation; environment and water management; and the supply of heat, gas and water, according to National Bureau of Statistics data compiled by Bloomberg.
Deutsche Bank AG analysts yesterday cut their expansion projections for this quarter to 6.8 percent, reinforcing their call for the central bank to step up monetary stimulus.
“We expect growth to surprise to the downside in Q1 and policies to surprise on the loose side in 2015,” Deutsche Bank economists led by Hong Kong-based Zhang Zhiwei wrote. China will be hit by a “double whammy” of slowing property investment and a sharp decline in land sales by local governments, the analysts wrote.
關於高鐵，參見：
鳳凰：內地將建內蒙古至海南高鐵 時速350公裏途經7省
