美國2015年股市

從經濟學家到股市大師，很難找到說美國股市明年不長的。這是高盛北美首席經濟學家Hatzius的意見：
 

1. Will the US economy continue to grow above trend?
【答】Yes. Domestic strength should offset weakness from other economies.
2. Will the dollar appreciation weigh on growth?
【答】Yes, but it's manageable in the short term because of lower oil prices.
3. Will the housing recovery accelerate?
【答】Yes, especially in the single-family sector. Household formation should improve as young adults move out of their parents' homes.
4. Will consumer spending growth accelerate?
【答】Yes, as real disposable income increases because of lower oil prices.
5. Will capital spending growth accelerate further?
【答】No. Business capital spending does not look depressed relative to the long-term fundamentals and the decline in oil prices is likely to take a toll on energy sector.
6. Will wage growth move into the 3%-4% range identified by Chair Yellen as “normal”?
【答】No. There's still slack in the labor market as measured by the U6 underemployment rate.
7. Will core inflation rise toward the Fed’s 2% target?
【答】No. The dollar is strong, wage growth is low, and depressed oil prices should have a negative impact.
8. Will the Fed hike rates by the June FOMC meeting?
【答】No, because inflation probably won't hit the 2% target. "Based on our below-consensus forecasts for wage and price inflation we expect the first funds rate hike to occur after June 2015; our base case is September," Hatzius said.

最近出了一個，法國興業銀行。原因是美元過強，這是股市概況分布圖：

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希臘選總失敗短期效
希臘政府提選總統三番皆以失敗報終：
Greece Faces Snap Election With Rescue Lifeline at Stake

市場的反應呢？U.S. Index Futures Fall on Greek Vote After S&P 500 Rally，但實際上沒掉多少。但我覺得希臘最直接的影響是歐央行一月量化寬鬆的決定，因為希臘左派政黨揚言希臘對其債務要還價，說不定讓歐央行短期內舉棋不定。

目前在美國雖然股市走向沒大礙，但是油價下跌引起的頁岩油行業的債務問題，從而下一步投資、短期就業等等會受挫折，會有波動。


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參見：Junk Bond Risk Appetites Imply Stocks Should Fall At Least 13%