現在是買股票的最好時候嗎？

現在是買股票的最好時候嗎？

       股市在去年大幅上漲之後，還是不是一個進入和繼續持有的好時候？
       如果你認為美國經濟肯定會複蘇的話，那麽，現在還應該是一個不錯的買入時機，特別是在有不少的人在觀望的時候。如果大家都已經參與了，並且都在賺錢，都能夠很“準確”地預知哪隻股票會上升，而且他（她）的預測還真的是對的，那麽，就是你應該慢慢撤出股市的時候了。因為，在那個時候，人們能夠做的事情就是動嘴，而他們手裏和口袋裏已經沒有什麽錢可以投入股市了。沒有繼續增加的對股票的需求，自然就是需求的疲軟，而疲軟的需求帶來的就是價格的下跌。經濟學100就是這麽說的，事實上也是對的。

下麵這篇文章告訴你，從技術層麵和曆史經驗等多方麵看，目前的股市還是後勁不錯，是繼續買入的時候。況且，現在還有不少的人在那裏猶豫不決，這就是牛市的信號，至少是牛市發生可能性比較大的信號。

再者，穀歌目前似乎是有問題，而我反倒覺得正是建倉的時候。逢低吸納，注意分寸，未來幾年穀歌可能會給你帶來不錯的業績。畢竟，中國市場對它而言隻是小菜一碟。再者，我相信，穀歌自己也是理智的，它應該知道自己到底在做什麽。

對於百度，不久前在股價剛剛突破500點時我還在想，看來是有機會衝破600點關口了。原因就在於“勢”，“勢不可擋”。即使現在你覺得已經很貴了，如果你逆勢而行，可能會在短期內吃不小的虧。不過，你得注意，如果股價被預支太厲害，接下來需要調整和等待的時間也會非常長。這和爬山是一個道理：你爬得太快，中途需要歇息的時間也會越長。

關於這些哲理性的內容，我在自己的《價值投資：股市投資製勝之道》一書（崇文書局，2009年版）中談了很多。對於普通的長期投資者，這些哲理性的內容反倒比那些複雜的技術分析還有用，還容易使用。

附錄：Now is a good time to buy stocks

3/12/10 | Marketwatch

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Historically, on average there have been two particularly auspicious times to buy stock each year. Right now is one of those times.

We are very bullish on shares, and for the following reasons:

The broader market, best measured by the cumulative NYSE advance-decline line and the number of 52-week highs, is leading the averages higher. A market seldom gets into serious trouble when the average stock is outperforming the blue-chip issues that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX). In fact, a peak in the advance-decline line and number of 52-week highs, proxies for the average stock, normally precedes a bull market top in the Dow industrials by at least four to six months, making it one of the better long-term leading indicators. That this has not yet transpired increases the probability that a bull market top is some months down the road.

Sector leadership is constructive. Important broad sectors which are highly sensitive to the economic cycle, such as the retailers and consumer discretionary stocks, are showing strong outperformance. In light of this, we do not believe that the economy will experience a double-dip in the remainder of 2010.

A typical bull market does not end after just one year, but averages between two and three years, depending upon the measurement technique used. It would be unlikely for the bull market to end now after just a one-year advance, especially after the severe and lengthy onslaught inflicted by the 2007-2009 bear, whose wrath has left many groups undervalued by historic measures.

Many stocks are forming sideways price consolidation areas, known as bases. Subsequent to an intermediate-term correction or bear market, this has been our most reliable indicator of an impending intermediate-term advance for the past 20 years. In fact, during this period, we have only encountered one other instance in which the market fell apart and moved to new lows despite the presence of many stocks building bases. Especially bullish is the fact that more stocks are forming bases at present than at any time since 1999, or before.

For the intermediate-term participant, who holds a winning position from a few weeks to a few months, recent breakouts in Acacia Research (ACTG), Acme Packet (APKT), Agilent (A), Agilysys (AGYS), Albemarle (ALB), Altera (ALTR), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Aruba Networks (ARUN), Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW), Baidu (BIDU), Black & Decker (BDK), Blue Coat Systems (BSCI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Cimarex (XEC), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS), Dress Barn (DBRN), Eaton (ETN), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), ev3 (EVVV), Express Scripts (ESRX), F5 Networks (FFIV), Faro Technologies (FARO), Federal-Mogul (FDML), Fossil (FOSL), Gentex (GNTX), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE), Imax (IMAX), Incyte (INCY), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), JDA Software (JDAS), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Liberty Global (LBTYA), Mellanox Technologies (MLNX), Mylan (MYL), Neogen (NEOG), Netgear (NTGR), Nordson (NDSN), Plexus (PLXS), Riverbed Technology (RVBD), Rovi (ROVI), Sapient (SAPE), Shutterfly (SFLY), Skechers (SKX), Skyworks (SWKS), Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP), Sonosite (SONO), Trimble Navigation (TRMB), Viropharma (VPHM), VistaPrint (VPRT), Walter Energy (WLT), WebMD (WBMD), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), and Whole Foods Market (WFMI), to name just 57, are all the evidence that is needed to know that the five-week rally off the Feb. 5 wash-and-rinse day low has serious credentials. Breakouts in many of the above Nasdaq names have been accompanied by volume best described as not "middling" or "on the fence," but "explosive."

Still building bases are Agrium (AGU), Bucyrus International (BUCY), Catalyst Health Solutions (CHSI), Cavium Networks (CAVM), Ceragon Networks (CRNT), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Ctrip.com (CTRP), Deere & Co. (DE), DirecTV Group (DTV), Dover (DOV), G-III Apparel Group (GIII), GSI Commerce (GSIC), Methanex (MEOH), NII Holdings (NIHD), SuccessFactors (SFSF), Veeco Instruments (VECO), Virgin Media (VMED), and Waste Services (WSII), to name just 18.

In summation, we are very bullish. We do not use adjectives lightly, and cannot recall the last time the term "very bullish" was used. Breadth, leadership, and Nasdaq volume are all positive.

In particular, we like the fact that hundreds of stocks are building, and breaking out of, sideways areas of consolidation, known as bases, more than at any time since 1999, and possibly longer. Short-term, the averages have been overbought for eight-straight days, and thus deserving of a pullback.

Kevin Marder is a principal of Marder Investment Advisors Corp., and was a co-founder of MarketWatch. He is a contributor to The Gilmo Report.