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花旗銀行配股的尷尬

(2009-12-17 06:51:03) 下一個


花旗銀行配股的尷尬


  

20091216日,是華爾街一個特別的日子,也是美國政府值得記住的日子。在這天,為了還清對美國政府的巨額借債,花旗銀行宣布了美國曆史上規模最大的配股方案:

配售54億股普通股和3,500萬強製性可轉換債券;

每股配售價格為3.15美元,計劃籌資總額為170億美元。想想10月中旬時的5美元,和四天前接近4美元的股價,不能不讓人感覺出華爾街的冷酷無情。

在美利堅銀行通過出售新股來還清政府借債時,華爾街一幫人又來忽悠股民,說這是一件大好事,還清借債之後的公司更值得投資。沒想到,投資者這次不那麽聽話,不那麽容易被忽悠了。

由於市場拚命壓低股價,原計劃一起出售部分股份的美國財政部,決定不進行與花旗售股有關的股權出售了。財政部當初是以每股3.25美元買進的,在花旗股價在4-5美元波動時,財政部是沒有想到,結果會是低於這個3.25美元的結局的。 

除了上述股份外,同時出售的還有強製性可轉換債券,其年收益率為7.5%,低於支付給政府的10%。而且,公司還擁有強行轉換成普通股的權利。

為了給予經銷商一定的靈活性,花旗還給予他們8.095億股普通股的超額認股權。就在周二,富國銀行發行新股時,它給予經銷商的配額還全部被派上用場。花旗也在做著一樣的夢想。很可能,對於富國銀行的美夢,在花旗這裏隻能是黃粱美夢。

財政部不參與新股出售,是因為看來要虧錢,不樂意。不過,它還是擁有在90天之後隨時拋出的權利。這個90天比當初的45天延長了一倍的時間。看來是在照顧投資者,實際上是在照顧華爾街,讓他們能夠及時將花旗的股份賣出去。

消息人士說,財政部仍計劃在未來六至12個月內,出售自己所持有的花旗集團34%股權。 

目前,花旗銀行(C)總股數為228.6億股,在發行完新股之後,現有股東對公司的擁有比例,將從過去的100%降為228.6/228.6 +54+8.095= 78.6%。這裏還沒有計算在未來可能會被轉換成普通股的債券。

新股的發行隻是為了還債,不能夠成為公司帶動未來盈利增長的力量。同時,這樣做也成為沒有辦法的辦法。

稀釋意味著大家碗裏的米飯沒有增加,但是增加了水份。在一個沒有人喜歡吃粥的時代,這當然不是一件好事。但是,可憐的花旗人又能夠做什麽呢?

如果投資者是理性的話,應該能夠計算出這種結果來的。為什麽,那麽多投資者能夠全然不顧這種狀況而抬高花旗的股價?

如果這種抬高是合理的,那麽,大量新股供給的增加,可能就隻是暫時打壓了股價,長期而言還是一個建倉的好機會。

畢竟,短期看價格,長期看價值。你付出的是價格,獲得的是價值。隻要價值合算,那麽,短期的打壓是不會長期掩蓋你的美麗和輝煌的。對比之下,如果你實在是物超所值,投資者會慢慢將資金從其它金融公司抽出來,進入你這家公司的。 

花旗銀行50天的平均交易量是3.9億股。新股45億,必須吸收大量的“場外”投資者才能完全吸納掉。

美國政府手裏的34%的股份,相當於77億股的樣子。直接賣到股市中,需要多少時間才能在不大幅度負麵影響股價的情況下完成?有人估計,需要5-6個月。

如果美國經濟繼續複蘇,花旗在完全剝離呆賬資產之後,麵對利息上升預期的經濟環境,很可能靠它自己幹淨的賬麵,和未來不錯的盈利預期,能夠吸引到大量的外來戶,那麽,財政部也就沒有必要那麽急就出手自己的股份的。

如果財政部守在那裏像個急猴一樣等著出手,那麽,很可能,股價隻要稍微上漲一點,就會被財政部的賣出壓力給打下來。

如果是這樣的話,短期內,很可能花旗就是一隻死股票了。 

【附錄】Citigroup Faced A Tough Sell On TARP Repayment Raise

12/17/09 By Lynn Cowan and Adam Edelman
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Citigroup Inc. (C) was able to raise $20.5 billion in securities Wednesday to pay off government bailout funds, but it was a tough sell.

Citigroup was the last of the major Wall Street firms to pay back Troubled Asset Relief Program monies, and its stock offering proved to be the hardest to market to investors. From the time the company announced its plans on Monday, its stock did nothing but slide. After closing Wednesday at $3.45, the deal priced at $3.15 a share, an 8.7% discount.

In contrast, Wells Fargo & Co.'s (WFC) stock rose after its Monday announcement, and continued higher after it sold a total of $12.25 billion in a stock offering Tuesday at a 1.9% discount, within the normal bounds of most follow-ons. The San Francisco-based bank's offering attracted so much interest that underwriters were able to exercise their option to purchase 63.9 million additional shares on top of the 426 million the bank had originally set out to sell; doing so eliminated the need for Wells Fargo to sell assets.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) raised $19 billion in a complex stock transaction earlier this month. Its stock priced at a nearly 5% discount, and initially rose in the days following the deal, but has declined since then.

Citigroup's offering, which originally included plans for the U.S. Treasury to also sell part of its 34% stake in the company, ended with Treasury backing out. The U.S. government's original Citigroup investment was at $3.25 a share, so it would have suffered a loss by selling.

The Treasury Department said it would extend its lock-up period on the sale of its 7.7 billion-share common equity stake to 90 days from 45 days after the completion of the offering, a sweetener aimed at investors to help move the company's deal along.

"This is and never was a lay up shot like Wells Fargo's repayment of the TARP," said Scott Sweet, managing director of research firm IPOBoutique.com.
 

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