美國的這次衰退比29年的還嚴重

由Dr Krassimir Petrov在十一月發表的一篇文章中認為，美國的這次衰退應比29年的那次還嚴重。這大概是老美所不願聽的，但世界不是什麽人願意聽才那樣的。至於什麽叫衰退得更嚴重，應有確切的定義。那涉及到經濟學的許多術語，我們不去管它，反正是這個對許多人是壞消息的意思。

他引用的數據主要如下：

1，美國的房價在2000年前後就如脫韁的野馬。這樣的價位能長期維持嗎？無論奧巴瑪有什麽樣的本領，他都無法來挽救那個價格，他除非想製造更大的泡沫。

2，債務對GDP的比率如此高，這能繼續維持嗎？

3，看看銀行的數據就知道了。

4，全球的泡沫。

5，用黃金來衡量，雖然這個指標有嚴重的缺陷，但也說明了部分實際。

他的結論是：這次將是更大的衰退。

Conclusion

Since August of 2007 we have witnessed the relentless escalation of the credit crisis: a steady constriction of credit markets, starting with subprime mortgage-backed securities, spreading to commercial paper, then to interbank credit, and then to CDOs, CLOs, jumbo mortgages, home equity lines of credit, LBOs and private equity markets, and then generally to the bond and securities markets.

While the media describes the problem as one of illiquidity and confidence, a more serious analysis indicates that boom-time credit has been employed unproductively and so losses must be incurred. In other words, scarce capital has been misallocated, poorly invested, and effectively wasted. No amount of monetary or fiscal policy can fix the errors of the past, just like no modern treatment can quickly restore to health a drug addict debilitated from a decade-long drug abuse.

Based on indicators like - (1) global real estate overvaluation, (2) indebtedness, (3) leverage, (4) outstanding derivatives, (5) global bubbles, and (6) the precariousness of the global monetary system, I would argue that the accumulated imbalances in the current period surpass significantly those preceding the Great Depression. I therefore conclude that the coming U.S. (and possibly) global depression will be of greater magnitude than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It likely suggests that we are entering a historic period that will likely be known as The Greater Depression .