正文
【燕王若幹按】：
1，本王近來花天酒地，堅信“花掉的錢，才是錢”。
2，上麵的話，算是新年祝福之一！懂得本王祝福的意思，你就不會虧。
3，花天酒地之餘，關心一哈米國國情，轉帖一篇憂國憂民的炸藥獎blog（見下麵）。
4，O8ama生不逢時。費老大勁，當選P. 一般總統能有100天蜜月。
5，O8ama也就10天蜜月:“人民保底，還是人民NOT保底？that is the question”
6，借一句老話：命苦不能怨政府 - 何況O8ama就是政府！
--
正文（附本王點評）：
The Geithner put
P. Krugman
People tend to forget this, but we were on the edge of a major banking crisis in the early 90s. it wasn’t just the S&Ls; commercial banks were in trouble too, largely because of big losses on commercial real estate. And I remember a conversation I had back then with economists at the New York Fed, one of whom declared that the only reason Citibank (as it then was) had a positive market value was the “FDIC put.” That is, part of the Citi’s downside was in fact covered by taxpayers, who were guaranteeing deposits whatever happened, while all of the upside belonged to the stockholders.
【命苦不能怨政府，政府更苦】
As it turned out, a combination of low interest rates and then the great Clinton-era boom meant that this put option was never exercised. But that episode came back to me as I parse stories about the Obama administration’s apparent emerging plan for bank rescue.
【好玄，人民幾乎買單】
If the reports are right, the plan is to buy up some of the troubled assets — but only those that have already been written way down. The Obama team doesn’t want to buy up the assets that haven’t been written down. For the rest, the Feds will offer a guarantee protecting the banks against large losses.
【人民又要買單】
As best I understand it, the reason not to buy up assets that haven’t been written down is that paying book value would be an obviously bad deal for taxpayers, while paying a low price would devastate banks’ reported capital, a process sometimes known as “recognizing reality.” So the really important part of the bailout will involve providing what we have to call the “Geithner put”: taxpayers will assume a large part of the downside risk.
【一回生，二回熟，政府買單買出經驗來】
This might — might — work out OK, just as the FDIC put of the early 90s did. But let’s be clear what this is: it is lemon socialism, pure and simple: socialized losses, privatized profits.
【隻有社會主義能夠救美國。檸檬社會主義嘛，難說了】
Is this really the best we can do?
【你問俺，俺問誰？】
不過，俺雖然沒有得炸藥獎，也說一句：
現在還沒有動根本。啥是根本？國家，社會的根本是契約。到哪天說話不算話了，
就動了根本了。醜陋的就都出來了。但願不至於此。
此為新年祝願之二！
出於對諸位XDJM的酷愛，及本王花天酒地後的內疚，多說一句。
新年祝願之二，也隻是祝願。祝願如果不成功，相信你們也早作好了準備。
此為新年祝願之三。
- 燕王
1，本王近來花天酒地，堅信“花掉的錢，才是錢”。
2，上麵的話，算是新年祝福之一！懂得本王祝福的意思，你就不會虧。
3，花天酒地之餘，關心一哈米國國情，轉帖一篇憂國憂民的炸藥獎blog（見下麵）。
4，O8ama生不逢時。費老大勁，當選P. 一般總統能有100天蜜月。
5，O8ama也就10天蜜月:“人民保底，還是人民NOT保底？that is the question”
6，借一句老話：命苦不能怨政府 - 何況O8ama就是政府！
--
正文（附本王點評）：
The Geithner put
P. Krugman
People tend to forget this, but we were on the edge of a major banking crisis in the early 90s. it wasn’t just the S&Ls; commercial banks were in trouble too, largely because of big losses on commercial real estate. And I remember a conversation I had back then with economists at the New York Fed, one of whom declared that the only reason Citibank (as it then was) had a positive market value was the “FDIC put.” That is, part of the Citi’s downside was in fact covered by taxpayers, who were guaranteeing deposits whatever happened, while all of the upside belonged to the stockholders.
【命苦不能怨政府，政府更苦】
As it turned out, a combination of low interest rates and then the great Clinton-era boom meant that this put option was never exercised. But that episode came back to me as I parse stories about the Obama administration’s apparent emerging plan for bank rescue.
【好玄，人民幾乎買單】
If the reports are right, the plan is to buy up some of the troubled assets — but only those that have already been written way down. The Obama team doesn’t want to buy up the assets that haven’t been written down. For the rest, the Feds will offer a guarantee protecting the banks against large losses.
【人民又要買單】
As best I understand it, the reason not to buy up assets that haven’t been written down is that paying book value would be an obviously bad deal for taxpayers, while paying a low price would devastate banks’ reported capital, a process sometimes known as “recognizing reality.” So the really important part of the bailout will involve providing what we have to call the “Geithner put”: taxpayers will assume a large part of the downside risk.
【一回生，二回熟，政府買單買出經驗來】
This might — might — work out OK, just as the FDIC put of the early 90s did. But let’s be clear what this is: it is lemon socialism, pure and simple: socialized losses, privatized profits.
【隻有社會主義能夠救美國。檸檬社會主義嘛，難說了】
Is this really the best we can do?
【你問俺，俺問誰？】
不過，俺雖然沒有得炸藥獎，也說一句：
現在還沒有動根本。啥是根本？國家，社會的根本是契約。到哪天說話不算話了，
就動了根本了。醜陋的就都出來了。但願不至於此。
此為新年祝願之二！
出於對諸位XDJM的酷愛，及本王花天酒地後的內疚，多說一句。
新年祝願之二，也隻是祝願。祝願如果不成功，相信你們也早作好了準備。
此為新年祝願之三。
- 燕王
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