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可恨盈虧無定數 無奈財富險中求
牛經滄海
5/30/2009
股市博弈, 投資者博的是長期的價值積聚, 投機者博的是風險回報. 自2000年以來的兩次熊市給投資者帶來了毀滅性的打擊. 有趣的是, 每當有受訪GURU提及市場上漲過多, CBNC的主持人事後都要抱怨她的401K還40%水下.
麵對現實, 滄海這樣的恒牛也不得不質問: 價值意義能幾何? 價格才是硬道理. 值得慶幸的是, 自三月由投資者墮化成投機者以來, 市場比較配合, 至今竟然有兩倍以上的回報 (圖一). 遺憾的是, 滄海清醒地知道, 這些回報主要來自冒險, 完全沒有可重複性, 也就是大師們津津樂道及吾輩春宵一刻的錫統. 有了錫統, 股市博弈就像是ENGINEERING, 原料是銀子, 成品是更多的銀子, 賺錢就有了可預測性. 不信還真不行. 前不久看了一個節目, 介紹了如何將散碎的鑽石放入一套高溫高壓的容器內, 加入石墨, 居然產出大塊的, 更高性能的鑽石! 隻可惜自GE於50年代研發以來, 暫未進入商業化階段, 否則男銀們每天都能送一枚大鑽石給MM, ZIYI 或許不必委身鬼子 (圖二)?
回到本題, 滄海的當日持倉 (圖三)來看, 風險是426, 即大市的4.26倍. 換句話說, 大市如跌20%(呸!呸!呸!), 三月之盈, 虧於一旦. 正因如是, 特書此貼提醒各位, 每當你看到他有幾個成功的"HAO TRADES", 一定要搞清楚風險幾許, 盈利幾何.
最後, 滄海還是要預測一下大市. 5周前(04/25/09貼(圖四)), 據道指判斷其後有50%可能是兩周上漲, 一周震蕩, 一周上行. 如今回頭看來, 蒙的不差, 隻是震蕩了兩周, 第五周上攻. 蒙對了, 還接著來. 據滄海觀察, 8500一線有沉重阻力, 屢攻不下, 或假以時日, 積聚更多的能量, 方可一舉拿下. 如果回調, 8000有支撐. 一旦上攻突破, 9000可得(圖五).
預測市場, 知其不可為而為之, 準備預案, 不足為據.
圖一回報
圖二鑽石ZIYI
圖三風險
Description | Ticker | Percent | Value(USD) | Risk Grade | Risk Impact | XLoss(USD) |
Cash |
| -17.60% |
| 0 | 0.00% |
|
U.S. Dollar |
| -17.60% |
| 0 | 0.00% |
|
Large Cap |
| 8.40% |
| 253 | 2.90% |
|
Cover at lower open | MA | -6.40% |
| 230 | -1.30% |
|
Target at 39 | JPM | 6.70% |
| 167 | 2.10% |
|
Target at 50 | BA | 8.10% |
| 165 | 2.10% |
|
Mid/Small Cap |
| 60.40% |
| 507 | 66.80% |
|
Target at 8.5 | DUZFU | 0.20% |
| 3776 | 0.60% |
|
Target at 8.5 | VPHM | 3.80% |
| 370 | 1.50% |
|
Stop at 24.25 cl | TSRA | -10.70% |
| 397 | -3.20% |
|
Target at 3.5 | PNX | 3.70% |
| 447 | 2.70% |
|
BK | MTWVQ | 0.00% |
| 1888 | 0.00% |
|
Target at 25 and 29 | MDVN | 4.10% |
| 363 | 1.50% |
|
Tartget at 50 and 55 | UFRFH | 2.40% |
| 1856 | 5.50% |
|
Target at 165 | AXQFJ | 1.50% |
| 3043 | 7.80% |
|
Target at 21.5 | GQKFD | 0.30% |
| 2136 | 0.50% |
|
Target at 24 and 30 | DNDN | 24.70% |
| 684 | 24.50% |
|
Target at 3.75 | CYTK | 2.50% |
| 302 | 1.10% |
|
Failed | CRMFH | 0.20% |
| 3715 | 1.30% |
|
Target at 165 | CLMT | 4.80% |
| 296 | 0.30% |
|
Target at 12 and 14 | BXFB | 2.80% |
| 2266 | 9.70% |
|
Target at 12 and 14 | BX | 11.90% |
| 348 | 7.80% |
|
Target at 24 and 30 | AKAM | 8.10% |
| 267 | 1.80% |
|
International |
| 32.10% |
| 336 | 20.20% |
|
Cover at lower open | AUY | -4.30% |
| 372 | -1.60% |
|
Target at 20 | STPFP | 0.80% |
| 2996 | 3.00% |
|
Target at 37 | NAT | 6.10% |
| 192 | 1.80% |
|
Target at 10, 16 and 25 | LDK | 3.30% |
| 508 | 2.40% |
|
Target at 42 | FXI | 13.60% |
| 281 | 6.40% |
|
Target at 14 and 18 | JRJC | 4.50% |
| 460 | 2.60% |
|
Target at 30 and 32 | CCJFE | 0.60% |
| 2133 | 2.10% |
|
Target at 20 and 24 | BAM | 6.40% |
| 222 | 2.30% |
|
Target at 3 and 5 | YAOAZ | 1.10% |
| 1162 | 1.90% |
|
Other |
| 16.70% |
| 164 | 5.40% |
|
Tartget at 18 and 20 | UNG | 2.60% |
| 186 | 0.20% |
|
Target at 5 and 6 | UYG | 7.50% |
| 344 | 5.30% |
|
Target at 19.5 and 21 | DGI | 6.50% |
| 49 | -0.10% |
|
TOTAL |
| 100.00% |
| 426 |
|
|
圖四回顧
圖五妄議
價值意義能幾何? 價格才是硬道理.
Disclaim: The author is not a Registered Investment Advisor or a Broker/Dealer. The author’s discussions do not serve as recommendations or suggestions for buying or selling any stocks or other instruments. The information contained in the blog is provided as is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
