8-2-2009

Can we know?    Agnosticism of the market.

The whole market is without logic, and that is not my view.  It is the conclusion to watch all those market gurus featured on CNCBC, none of them seems get the market right.

The auction of 2, 5 years treausrey failed short, dollar went down, rate went up, these seems logic. who would guessed that 7 year auction went very smoothly,  but guess what?   dollar continued its slide, but all bonds, whether long or short, all wnet up.    this is very ilogic.   

It does not matter how diligently one works, how much information one gather, short term market is a paradise for the Agnosticism, or in the parlance of market, it is just a random walk.   this may be the result of three things:  1).  the information one get is always incomplete because the volumn of the information.  2).  it is hard to come to the conlusion based on the information because market is a very complex system.  3).  like in the realm of quatum mechanism, the action of the trader based on current information will change the assumption for the next event.  So, that is why technical maybe more useful to decipher the market.

There are two things to watch next week, On Wendnesday, cisco annonce result, which will have impact on the tech section in general, it may propel market to the next level just like intc did.   or maybe not.    Friday's job number of course have implication for the economy and recovery etc.

Almost everything that I keep track is read "long".  the ones just join that list are bond(TLT), euro(FXE), commidty(DBC,USO,GLD etc).

the market is afraid of "hight" for the time being, so, one could take advantgae of those "bottom fishing".  for example, nok, aan, flir, and to certain degree jbht and deck.   the trick is patient, wait all these issues brought up by the market and "go short" when any profit taking took place.

hopefully, we will have a good week as well as a good month.