11-22-09

Market can never be expected.  Even if it is behaved exactly as it is expected, it is still not fully expected. such is the case of last week.  

The three days sell off was expected, but the intensity was less expected. which made me wonder whether this cycle of downturn will be less severe.  we probably has seen the lower end of this turn. 


Each day's sell off started early, but, by the end of the day, the buyer stepped in.   and do not underestimate those late buying,  it provides some psychologic support for those weak hand. and prevent the market from rolling over.

If the dollar is dominating factor, then, we have seen enough of the dead cat bounce. once dollar resume its downward trajectory, maybe the market will resume its upward move.


there are worries, financial and semiconductor was weak, which could provide some openings for the bears.


So, it might be a week of stalemate for both bear and bull.   we shall see.


We need, in the coming week, keep close eye on dollar.    maybe the energy and crude could become our vehicle for going long.