8-30-09

The major indexes did not follow through last week, but they did not fail off either. which fact is more significant, only time will tell. 

Obviusly, the bull is in firm control, even the shares shorted on NYSE are dwinding,  a signal often used by contrains for the time to sell notwithstanding, it is a sign that bears are running scared.

There are headwinds ahead, 1). the job report Friday, and 2). the approaching labor day.  It has been noted that the trading volumn  has been small, so, many has surmised that the "juniors" are maning the store.  so, the market will reveal its true color only  after the "big shots" come back from vacation.    All these will somehow damp the enthusiam for the trader of both sides, so, I believe we will see a relatively a quiet week( no big move on each side).

The following are notables:
 1).  FXI is definitely laggard.
 2).  SMH is in a break out mode.
 3).  Dollar is in the lower band of a trading range.  maybe there are trades there: 
          a. treasury, how could TLT go opposite direction with dollar ? someone is not right.
          b. oil..  buy at dip?   it is hard to image dollar is going higher.
          c.  DBC
          d.  XHB/XLE etc

All above are conjectures, of coures, it is need to be confirmed by the market action.    One can be right and still broke, and that is the sad part of the trading