junqi的博客
just personal musing
正文
Up or Down, that is the question, other than life or death, it is probably the most important question a trader need to ask every day.
It would be easier to tell if the the market is in an extreme condition, or the market is up against its support/resistance line. We know the market is in touble, but has the trouble been priced in yet? or is there more to come? If we put a range around DJIA, you will see it sits right in the middle of that range (12950 -- 13450). the RSI is around 39, it is neither overbought nor oversold, it is just utterly un-exciting.
The VIX is around 28, albeit high, it is improving. If there is one thing we can say about the participants of this market, it is their courage. It does not matter how bad the macro-economy looks like, they never give up, it is very hard to get the extreme readings of the "fear" even thogut at times the sky seems failing.
One thing for sure is that, unless fundaments improve (earning, inflation etc), any rally probably is going to be short-lived.
Even though equity market seems like a Shakespere's tragedy, the commodity market paints a totally different picture, just take a look at DBA, DBC etc. Speculation aside, there are fundamental reasons as China, India consume more and more raw materials and eat more nutrient diet. There are analysts calling the commodity market over-heated, but to see a huge correction, it probably will take another 3-6 monthes away. So, that is one spot more and more people are seeking refugees.
But do not confuse commodity with those companies engaging in the commodity business. Even though the wheat/soybean etc make new highs, the pot/mos/mon/cf etc are hanging tough just not be blowed up.
Gold is another place worth taking a look, the word from G7 is that European banks reluctant to cut their rate, meaning we will see continued slide of dollar, making gold even more expansive.
There are good stocks to buy for sure, but it is hard to argue the time is now. As we pointed out before, the odds favors "sell in rally" to "buy at dip" for the time being, and it is best to stick to that strategy until the market tells us otherwise
It would be easier to tell if the the market is in an extreme condition, or the market is up against its support/resistance line. We know the market is in touble, but has the trouble been priced in yet? or is there more to come? If we put a range around DJIA, you will see it sits right in the middle of that range (12950 -- 13450). the RSI is around 39, it is neither overbought nor oversold, it is just utterly un-exciting.
The VIX is around 28, albeit high, it is improving. If there is one thing we can say about the participants of this market, it is their courage. It does not matter how bad the macro-economy looks like, they never give up, it is very hard to get the extreme readings of the "fear" even thogut at times the sky seems failing.
One thing for sure is that, unless fundaments improve (earning, inflation etc), any rally probably is going to be short-lived.
Even though equity market seems like a Shakespere's tragedy, the commodity market paints a totally different picture, just take a look at DBA, DBC etc. Speculation aside, there are fundamental reasons as China, India consume more and more raw materials and eat more nutrient diet. There are analysts calling the commodity market over-heated, but to see a huge correction, it probably will take another 3-6 monthes away. So, that is one spot more and more people are seeking refugees.
But do not confuse commodity with those companies engaging in the commodity business. Even though the wheat/soybean etc make new highs, the pot/mos/mon/cf etc are hanging tough just not be blowed up.
Gold is another place worth taking a look, the word from G7 is that European banks reluctant to cut their rate, meaning we will see continued slide of dollar, making gold even more expansive.
There are good stocks to buy for sure, but it is hard to argue the time is now. As we pointed out before, the odds favors "sell in rally" to "buy at dip" for the time being, and it is best to stick to that strategy until the market tells us otherwise
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